Will Divisions Undermine the Somali Insurgency?

I have an article in the Middle East Times today examining rifts between the ARS (Alliance for the Re-Liberation of Somalia) and the Shabab wing of the Somali insurgency. An excerpt:

A communiqué recently issued by Abu Mansoor al-Amriki, an U.S. jihadist aligned with Shabab, explains the split between the two groups.

Entitled, "A Message to the Mujahideen in Particular and the Muslims in General," Amriki's communiqué describes the ARS (which he continues to refer to as "the Islamic Courts") as nationalist in orientation, while Shabab is more religiously motivated. (Shabab leader Aden Hashi 'Ayro, for example, trained at an al-Qaida camp in Afghanistan.) "[W]hile the courts had a goal limited to the boundaries placed by the Taghoot [impure]," Amriki wrote, "the Shabab had a global goal including the establishment of the Islamic Khilafah [caliphate] in all parts of the world."

This represents not only a difference in strategic visions; Amriki also condemns the ARS for their tactical choices. The ARS has been closely aligned with Eritrea, and its leader Sheik Sharif Sheik Ahmed now lives in Asmara. Amriki claims that "[t]here is no doubt" that Eritrea is "not looking out for what is in our best interest or what is in the best interests of the jihad."

Though not much is publicly known about Amriki, an American intelligence source tells me that he was one of the former U.S. military personnel who fought in Bosnia during the 1990s, is a high-ranking member of al-Qaida's East Africa leadership, and is one of the Somali insurgents' lead trainers. When he once appeared on al-Jazeera wearing a face mask, it was clear that Amriki was Caucasian.

In his critique of the ARS, Amriki writes that the Shabab has adopted the manhaj (religious methodology) "adopted by the Mujahideen in the rest of the blessed lands of jihad," including that of Osama bin Laden, Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, and "the lion, the genius, the doctor" Ayman al-Zawahiri. According to Nick Grace, who follows the jihadist web for ThreatsWatch, global jihadist forums have taken note of the split, and opinion on them generally runs against ARS.

You can read the entire Middle East Times article here. Also, I have attached a copy of Amriki's communiqué:
Abu Mansoor al-Amriki.pdf.