Counterterrorism Blog

In my opinion, the most important point in the second tape in two days by Osama Bin Laden is his reiteration of long-held Al Qaeda doctrine that victory in Iraq is critical to the long-term success of the jihad throughout the Middle East, ending in victory over and the destruction of the State of Israel. Bin Laden issues a renewed call for jihadists to win in Iraq in order to support the Palestinian cause: "The nearest Jihad (holy war) battlefield to support our people in Palestine is the battlefield of Iraq ... It should be taken care of and supported." This is a quick summary of the doctrine which his deputy, Ayman al-Zawahiri, laid out in his famous letter in July 2005 to Abu Musab al-Zarqawi in Iraq:

"If our intended goal in this age is the establishment of a caliphate in the manner of the Prophet and if we expect to establish its state predominantly-according to how it appears to us-in the heart of the Islamic world, then your efforts and sacrifices-God permitting-are a large step directly towards that goal.

So we must think for a long time about our next steps and how we want to attain it, and it is my humble opinion that the Jihad in Iraq requires several incremental goals:

The first stage: Expel the Americans from Iraq.

The second stage: Establish an Islamic authority or amirate, then develop it and support it until it achieves the level of a caliphate- over as much territory as you can to spread its power in Iraq, i.e., in Sunni areas, is in order to fill the void stemming from the departure of the Americans, immediately upon their exit and before unIslamic forces attempt to fill this void, whether those whom the Americans will leave behind them, or those among the un-Islamic forces who will try to jump at taking power.

There is no doubt that this amirate will enter into a fierce struggle with the foreign infidel forces, and those supporting them among the local forces, to put it in a state of constant preoccupation with defending itself, to make it impossible for it to establish a stable state which could proclaim a caliphate, and to keep the Jihadist groups in a constant state of war, until these forces find a chance to annihilate them.

The third stage: Extend the jihad wave to the secular countries neighboring Iraq.

The fourth stage: It may coincide with what came before: the clash with Israel, because Israel was established only to challenge any new Islamic entity.

My raising this idea-I don't claim that it's infallible-is only to stress something extremely important. And it is that the mujahedeen must not have their mission end with the expulsion of the Americans from Iraq, and then lay down their weapons, and silence the fighting zeal. We will return to having the secularists and traitors holding sway over us. Instead, their ongoing mission is to establish an Islamic state, and defend it, and for every generation to hand over the banner to the one after it until the Hour of Resurrection."

Those who favor a quick withdrawal from Iraq should remember that Al Qaeda leadership has said for years that it must win in Iraq in order to eventually destroy Israel.