Lebanon's Crisis Deferred
By David Schenker
Yesterday in Qatar, the pro-West Lebanese Government and Syrian and Iranian-backed Hizballah reached an agreement to deescalate the crisis. The Doha Agreement has largely been seen as a victory for Hizballah; the militia cum political party will be brought into the Government and provided a cabinet veto. Meanwhile, a discussion of the disposition of Hizballah’s weapons—a core issue for March 14th—will be deferred.
Despite these March 14th concessions, in reality, the deal will do little to change the status quo on the ground. Hizballah, as events of early May made painfully clear, already possesses the ability to veto government initiatives by force.
Arab League Secretary General Amr Moussa has described the Doha Agreement as a historic “reconciliation.” Given the ongoing outstanding issues, however, it appears that the agreement will be more of a hudna—a temporary truce—until the next round of fighting.
An article I wrote analyzing the Doha Agreement for the Washington Institute for Near East Policy can be found here.