The High Cost of Oil Dependence
By Daveed Gartenstein-Ross
With the price of oil over $125 a barrel and U.S. gasoline prices hovering around $4 a gallon, high energy costs have been a top news headline lately. Though the economic effect of these surging prices has been most prominently noticed, the high cost of oil dependence extends far beyond that. Today I have a policy briefing at FDD's web site analyzing the geopolitical implications of our dangerous dependence on foreign oil -- including the impact this has on our war-on-terror policies. An excerpt:
[T]he impact of oil dependence on terrorism extends beyond the financial windfall it entails for terrorist groups and the ideology that drives them: terrorists also understand that our oil dependence is our greatest strategic vulnerability.
Although Osama bin Laden initially declared Saudi Arabia's oil resources off limits as a military target because they were "a great Islamic wealth," his thinking on the matter shifted as he came to understand how much the U.S.'s fortunes were tied to its access to cheap oil. In a mid-December 2004 audiotape, he instructed al-Qaeda operatives: "One of the main causes for our enemies' gaining hegemony over our country is their stealing our oil; therefore, you should make every effort in your power to stop the greatest theft in history of the natural resources of both present and future generations, which is being carried out through collaboration between foreigners and [native] agents. . . . Focus your operations on it [oil production], especially in Iraq and the Gulf area, since this [lack of oil] will cause them to die off [on their own]."
Since then, other prominent voices within al-Qaeda have affirmed the group's desire to strike the oil supply. In a December 2005 video, Ayman al-Zawahiri stated: "I call on the holy warriors to concentrate their campaigns on the stolen oil of the Muslims, most of the revenues of which go to the enemies of Islam." Sawt al-Jihad, Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula's online magazine, noted in February 2007 that "cutting oil supplies to the United States, or at least curtailing it, would contribute to the ending of the American occupation of Iraq and Afghanistan."
Actual terrorist targeting has made clear that this is not empty rhetoric.... Indeed, former CIA agent Robert Baer warned back in 2003 that tactics in which al-Qaeda already had a demonstrated proficiency could succeed in taking a great deal of Saudi oil off the market instantaneously. He stated that "a single jumbo jet with a suicide bomber at the controls . . . would be enough to bring the world's oil-addicted economies to their knees" if crashed into a major offshore loading facility.
Following such an attack, the substantially reduced worldwide supply of oil would be joined by an inflated risk premium. While it is difficult to determine the ceiling for oil prices if such a scenario unfolded, Sawt al-Jihad may have been correct: diminished access to the military's lifeblood could spell doom for the U.S. ventures in Afghanistan and Iraq.
You can read the entire policy briefing here.
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