Pentagon Report, Gates' Comments Indicate Taliban's Resilience

By Andrew Cochran

A report issued late Friday by the Pentagon under Congressional mandate and comments by Defense Secretary Gates indicate the fragility of the security situation in Afghanistan. The "Report on Progress toward Security and Stability in Afghanistan" is the first formal report ever issued by DoD on the status of the security situation there.

"The Taliban regrouped after its fall from power and have coalesced into a resilient insurgency. It now poses a challenge to the Afghan Government’s authority in some rural areas. Insurgent violence increased in 2007, most visibly in the form of asymmetric attacks as Afghan and international forces’ relentless pressure forced the insurgents to shift the majority of its effort to targeting police and civilians. More than 6,500 people died as a result of suicide attacks, roadside bombs, and combat-related violence. The 2007 ISAF and ANSF military campaign caused setbacks to the Afghan insurgency, including leadership losses and the loss of some key safe-havens in Afghanistan. Despite these setbacks, the Taliban is likely to maintain or even increase the scope and pace of its terrorist attacks and bombings in 2008. The Taliban will challenge the control of the Afghan government in rural areas, especially in the south and east."

But the report was limited in scope to events prior to April of this year. Secretary Gates had to contradict one assertion in the report on the day before it was issued, when he admitted that attacks in eastern Afghanistan, including Khost province, rose 40 percent from January to May.

The report also discussed the role that drug trafficking plays in the Taliban's resurgence. "The cultivation, production and trafficking of narcotics in Afghanistan is a major concern. Narcotics-related activities are fueling the insurgency in Afghanistan and, if left unchecked, threaten the long-term stability of the country and the surrounding region. Over 90 percent of the world’s opium originates in Afghanistan, and the emerging nexus between narcotics traffickers and the insurgency is clear."

The report also criticizes Pakistan's appeasement of the Taliban in its Northwest provinces, identifying cross-border infiltration and attacks as the greatest threat to Afghanistan.

"The greatest challenge to long-term security within Afghanistan is the insurgent sanctuary within the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) of Pakistan. The ANSF must be able to coordinate actions with a Pakistani force that is trained and resourced to eliminate threats emanating from within Pakistan. The Pakistan Military (PAKMIL)’s clashes with Taliban members and terrorist organizations in Pakistan’s northwestern tribal areas have, in the past, contributed to a decrease in cross-border insurgent activity in Afghanistan’s eastern provinces. The U.S. is concerned about ceasefire negotiations and other agreements between the Government of Pakistan (GoP) and possible militant groups in South Waziristan and other locations in the FATA and North West Frontier Province. After similar agreements were signed in 2005 and 2006, cross-border operations by extremist groups against U.S. and NATO forces increased substantially."

You can read reports on each of these issues by Douglas Farah (including his post below), Daveed Gartenstein-Ross, Evan Kohlmann, and others on this Afghanistan archives page.

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