Dangerous Times in Colombia and Iraq
By Douglas Farah
Among the most dangerous times in a counter-insurgency campaign, inherent in asymmetrical warfare, is when the insurgency is close to being defeated.
Desperate to remain relevant and to motivate its followers as the situation becomes more trying, the groups grasp for a spectacular action that will give it a new lease on life.
In both Iraq, where al Qaeda in Iraq
seems to be in deep trouble, and in Colombia, where the FARC is on the ropes, public statements by officials give hints of a premature sense of triumph.
This lesson is not lost on some, including a senior intelligence official who told the Washington Post:
"I think it would be premature at this point," a senior intelligence official said of a victory declaration over AQI, as the group is known. Despite recent U.S. gains, he said, AQI retains "the ability for surprise and for catastrophic attacks."
That is not to deny significant progress has been made. Clearly AQI has suffered sharp defeats. The FARC has much of its senior leadership through death and desertion, and is clearly in its deepest crisis in decades. My full blog is here.