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"Representatives" of Thai Insurgents Declare a Cease Fire. Don't Hold Your Breath.By Zachary Abuza
Thai newspapers are reporting that representatives of the Thai insurgents have declared a ceasefire. Three alleged insurgents appeared on Thai TV and stated "We have come to an agreement to have a cease-fire from July 14 onward, We want to see peace and stability in the region." Don’t hold your breath. This is not the real deal. Second, the self-described spokesman, was identified as Mali Peng Khan, a former militant who was active in the period from 1984-1987, when the insurgency was dominated by PULO and a few other splinter groups, not the group most responsible for the violence today the Barisan Revolusi Nasional Coordinasi (BRNC). Members of PULO have attempted to speak on behalf of the insurgents and negotiate with the government in the past. This has always led to a spike in violence and attacks on the previous generation of militants. Third, Mali Peng Khan said that his group included the RKK. The RKK is not an organization, only mistakenly described as such in the press. Fourth, the insurgents have never spoken publicly, appeared in the media before. Why would they start now? Though the violence has decreased in the past year since the Royal Thai Army (RTA) implemented their own “surge,” the insurgents are not losing the war. The average rate of violence remains roughly 3 people per day. Though the government claims to have increased the number of arrests, most (over 90%) are freed after the 28-day holding period. Few are charged with crimes and convicted. Few leaders have been caught and the financial pipeline has not been shut down. While they may not be winning the war, nor are the losing it. And if one looks at some of their internal documents, they are right on track on their 40-year timeline. The proof is in the pudding. After the televised statement, a convoy of soldiers was ambushed.
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