Assessing the Fight against al Qaeda

By Michael Jacobson

This afternoon, the Washington Institute hosted Ted Gistaro, the National Intelligence Officer for Transnational Threats as part of its 2007-2008 lecture series with senior US government counterterrorism officials. Mr. Gistaro provided a comprehensive assessment on how the US and its allies are doing, nearly seven years after the September 11 attacks, in its efforts to defeat al Qaeda.

Here is an excerpt of Mr. Gistaro's prepared remarks:

We assess that greatly increased worldwide counterterrorism efforts over the past five years have constrained the ability of al-Qaeda to attack the United States and our allies and have led terrorist groups to perceive the Homeland in particular as a harder target to strike than on 9/11. These security measures have helped disrupt known plots against the United States since 9/11. That said, al-Qaeda remains the most serious terrorist threat to the United States, and we remain in the heightened threat environment we noted in the July 2007 National Intelligence Estimate.

• We are not aware of any specific, credible al-Qaeda plot to attack the U.S. homeland. But we do receive a steady stream of threat reporting from sources of varying creditability, which the U.S. Intelligence Community is investigating aggressively.

• As the election nears, we expect to see an uptick in such threat reporting -- of varying credibility -- regarding possible attacks.

• We also expect to see an increase in al-Qaeda's propaganda efforts, especially around the anniversary of the attacks of September 11, 2001, which has often been a hook for such propaganda statements. In Osama bin Laden's September 2007 address to the "American people," he labeled the democratic system "a failure." He claimed that there is no difference between Democratic or Republican candidates winning presidential or congressional elections so long as "big corporations" support candidates.

We assess that al-Qaeda's intent to attack the U.S. homeland remains undiminished. Attack planning continues and we assess it remains focused on hitting prominent political, economic, and infrastructure targets designed to produce mass casualties, visually dramatic destruction, and significant economic and political aftershocks.

To read the rest of Mr. Gistaro's prepared remarks click here:

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