Shadow of Iran Looms Large Over Gaza

By Walid Phares

The Israeli air raids on Hamas’s infrastructure along with troop movements around Gaza’s enclave and the shelling of Israel by the jihadist organization are both troubling developments in the Middle East but they are certainly neither new nor surprising. Dramatic images of bloody Palestinian civilians fleeing from attacks and pictures of Israelis rushing to the shelters while under fire will always bring chills to observers and depress the entire international community.

Sadly, it’s hardly the first time we’ve seen these images and tragically seven years after 9/11 they seem to connect with similar bloodshed in Mosul, Kabul and Mumbai. Even if both sides in the current Gaza conflict insist that their confrontation is at the center of the world, in reality it isn’t anymore. Car bombs and missiles in Beirut, Baghdad and Islamabad are all horrifying. There is no “top horror” anymore, even in the never- ending cycle of Gaza’s turmoil. It has all become part of the so-called “War on Terror” even though the Palestinian-Israeli quarrel is a conflict all its own. Still, why is this escalation so dramatic, why did it happen, who triggered it at this particular moment and what can we expect going forward? It’s too grandiose to claim that anyone has all the answers, but here is my take:

Gaza and Hizballah

By David Schenker

Israel completed its fifth day of air operations against Hamas in Gaza today. Meanwhile, throughout the Middle East, battle lines are being drawn between “moderate” Arab regimes like Saudi Arabia, Jordan, and Egypt and the militant camp, led by Syria, Iran, and their Lebanese ally Hizballah. Recent days have seen a flurry of verbal attacks launched against the “moderates,” accusing these states of not being supportive enough of Hamas.

The war of words reached a fever pitch earlier this week after Hizballah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah essentially called for civil insurrection in Cairo to compel the Egyptian Government to open the Rafah border with Israel ala August 2008 when Hamas destroyed the border fence allowing hundreds of thousands of Palestinians to enter the Sinai.

These are some excerpts from Nasrallah’s December 28 speech:

“We are facing a partnership by some Arab states, and a complicity by some other Arab states concerning events in our region…These Arabs are asking Israel to wipe out Hamas, Islamic Jihad, and the rest of the resistance factions…they are demanding this and helping in this regard…

“…we address the Egyptian regime, saying, O Egyptian officials, if you do not open the Rafah crossing, if you do not come to the rescue of your brothers in Gaza, then you will be partners to a crime, partners to the murders, partners to the siege, and partners to creating the Palestinian tragedy…

“O people of Egypt, you should open this crossing with your bare chests…I am not calling for a coup in Egypt, nor am I in a position to do so. However, I am for the generals and officers to go to the political leadership and address it, saying the honour of our military uniform….do[es] not allow us to see our kinfolk in Gaza slain while we guard the borders with Israel.”

Despite Nasrallah’s outspoken rhetorical stance on Gaza, it’s unlikely that Hizballah will open a second front against Israel ala summer 2006. I wrote an article about Hizballah and Gaza published yesterday by the Washington Institute. It can be found here.

Globally Networked Anarchy (#Griot)

By Roderick Jones

The year 2008 saw the hype fall away from virtual worlds but in contrast social networks are going from strength to strength and are being increasingly used as protest vehicles around the world. While the utility of Facebook and Twitter (using the #griot descriptor to report on the riots in Greece) have been widely reported upon some of the more interesting and interactive information can still be found in Second Life, which bodes well for the future of virtual worlds. Full report and links relating to this phenomena over at the MetaSecurity blog. Whether it be web-forums, Facebook or Second Life, virtual communities will continue to be an increasingly important part of the National Security picture in 2009.

Iran activating its proxies

By Olivier Guitta

Iran is smartly playing its cards, using its main Sunni and Shiite proxy to create havoc in the region and de facto making it stronger. At this point, Iran’s next step is uncertain. But it is quite possible that Hezbollah will decide to open a second front against Israel. Also the destabilization operations against the Sunni regimes in the region hostile to the Islamic Republic are likely to continue unabated. At this point when it comes to terror, all roads lead to Tehran.
I wrote an article for the Middle East Times analyzing the current situation.
You can read it in full here.

Here is an excerpt:
After the six-month truce with Israel expired on Dec. 19, Hamas decided, or perhaps was urged, to resume its attacks on Israel. Thus Hamas went on a rampage campaign, firing rockets at Israel to create terror and death among Israeli civilians.
As could be expected, Israel reacted the way most countries would when attacked, and to protect its population against a group it considers to be a terrorist organization.

A new war in the region is likely to benefit only one country: Iran.

Indeed, following the model of the summer 2006 war against Israel triggered by the capture of two Israeli soldiers by the Lebanese Shiite organization, Hezbollah, Iran would benefit with a new front opening up.

This time Iran is turning to using its Sunni arm, Hamas. Contrary to what a number of experts in the region profess, Sunni extremists and Shiite extremists have no problem joining forces against a common enemy and putting aside their age-old rivalries.

While Sheikh Ahmed Yassin, the founder of the Palestinian Resistance Movement, also known as Hamas, was still alive, he refused to Iran's advances time and again. Yassin was adamant not to engage the Shiites. After his death, Hamas became much more open to Tehran's advances. Recently, Iran has become Hamas' main bankroller and as such wants to have a say in what Hamas should or should not do.

Managing Gaza

By Aaron Mannes

Israel’s operation in Gaza is reaching a critical point. While talking heads will debate grand strategy, the options are limited. Behind the headlines is the crucial issue of how Israel’s national security process works (or doesn’t - in light of the weaknesses revealed in the 2006 Lebanon war). The next moves will demonstrate whether or not Israel has successfully incorporated the lessons from the failures of the 2006 Lebanon War. This is crucial to re-establishing Israeli deterrence.

Strategic Limitations

A true peace agreement with Hamas is not realistic. A quick scan of clips from Hamas’ al-Aqsa network or of statements by Hamas leaders from the Middle East Media Research Institute - particularly horrible are these scenes from Hamas produced children’s television - should disabuse all but the most useful idiots of any notions of a moderate Hamas.

Fatah is theoretically an alternative to Hamas, but has been eliminated from Gaza and has little credibility or capability.

Military options also do not offer definite solutions. Re-occupying Gaza would require tens of thousands of Israeli troops and likely lead to hundreds of Israeli and thousands of Palestinian casualties. The Israelis do not want to pay this price. It also might not work. Hamas might be able to maintain an ongoing, costly insurgency against the Israelis, which would be perceived as a victory. (Hamas has taken lessons from Hezbollah’s 2006 war with Israel and has prepared and is hoping for an IDF ground campaign.)

Hamas’ supply lines are the tunnels into Egypt. The tunnels themselves are only the endpoint of a vast smuggling network that extends throughout the Sinai and into the heart of Egypt. Egypt is a poor country, the smuggling opportunities are lucrative, and law enforcement is weak. In Kashmir, criminal networks in an impoverished environment have fostered a self-sustaining insurgency. The same situation could occur Gaza.

Ultimately, there are no solutions in Gaza on the immediate horizon. This is a problem Israel will have to manage.

Read the complete post here.

A Few Thoughts at the End of the Year

By Douglas Farah

Here are several items that have appeared in recent days that, to me, show just how much work we have to do in the field of combatting terrorism, and particularly Islamist terrorism. It shows what the true goals of these groups are, no matter how much we try to pretend otherwise.

The first is the reference in this New York Times story on radicalization in Bosnia, where it is stated that Saudi Arabia has spent about $700 million in Bosnia since the end of the war, mostly building mosques.

It is noticed in passing that, before this massive investment in the spreading of wahabbism, the Islam practiced in Bosnia was moderate and tolerant, for more than four centuries. Perhaps some cause and effect?

The same article notes that "Two months ago, men in hoods attacked participants at a gay festival in Sarajevo, dragging some people from vehicles and beating others while they chanted, “Kill the gays!” and “Allahu Akbar!” Eight people were injured.

"Muslim religious leaders complained that the event, which coincided with the holy month of Ramadan, was a provocation."

Well, that explains it. Beat them if you don't like them.

Another bit of Islamist sophism comes from the Shabaab al Mujahadeen in Somalia, courtesy of NEFA Foundation, where the group (in response to a glowing letter from a U.S. "sheikh") justifies the recent stoning of a woman, reported by residents of her town to have been 13 at the time of her murder.

The disbelievers have falsely reported that she was 13 years old, unmarried, and was raped. The reality and truth is that
she was over 20 years old, married, and was practicing adultery. This is just one example of how they twist the news, so we would like to take this opportunity to advise our brothers not to
believe any news reported about us except from our official Media Department. My full blog is here.

Al-Qaida-Linked U.S. Citizen Addresses Shabaab al-Mujahideen; Shabaab Responds

By Evan Kohlmann

The NEFA Foundation has obtained a statement issued by Anwar al-Awlaki, an Al-Qaida-linked U.S. citizen, addressed to the Shabaab al-Mujahideen, as well as a communiqué Shabaab issued in response. On December 21st, al-Awlaki released a message titled "Salutations to al-Shabab of Somalia”, in which he stated, "We are following your recent news and it fills our hearts with immense joy. We would like to congratulate you for your victories and achievements. Al-Shabab not only have succeeded in expanding the areas that fall under their rule but they have succeeded in implementing the sharia and giving us a living example of how we as Muslims should proceed to change our situation. The ballot has failed us but the bullet has not.” However, he also urged Shabaab to "be kind and soft with the masses; to excuse them for centuries of ignorance and false beliefs; to teach first and hold responsible last. I would advise you to go by certainty and to leave doubts; to prefer forgiveness over revenge."

Al-Awlaki served as an imam in Colorado, California, and Washington D.C. and worked as the Muslim Chaplain at George Washington University. He was the “spiritual advisor” to 9/11 hijackers Nawaf al-Hazmi and Khalid al-Midhar, and the Congressional Joint Inquiry on 9/11 reported that “the FBI agent responsible for the September 11 investigation informed staff that ‘there’s a lot of smoke there’ with regard to…[al-Awlaki’s] connection to the hijackers.” Returning to Yemen, he was arrested in 2006 and held for over a year. He reports being interrogated by FBI agents about a number of subjects, including 9/11. A February 2008 Washington Post article notes that U.S. officials now "believe that al-Awlaki worked with Al-Qaida networks in the Persian Gulf after leaving Northern Virginia” and has been involved in planning attacks on the U.S. and its allies.

Responding to al-Awlaki on December 27, Shabaab blamed the media for purportedly misreporting events in Somalia: "[The media] are continuously throwing accusations at those who want to live by the law of the Creator. For example, we can take the issue of the stoning of the woman in Kismayo. The disbelievers have falsely reported that she was 13 years old, unmarried, and was raped. The reality and truth is that she was over 20 years old, married, and was practicing adultery. This is just one example of how they twist the news, so we would like to take this opportunity to advise our brothers not to believe any news reported about us except from our official Media Department.”

Copies of the two statements can be downloaded from the NEFA Foundation website.

Ten Top Questions about the ongoing Israel-Hamas confrontation

By Walid Phares

Following are ten top questions needed to engage in strategic discussion of the ongoing Israel-Hamas confrontation in Gaza. These items can be altered if ground developments would take different directions in the next days or weeks.

1. What is Israel's strategy and goals regarding the ongoing campaign in Gaza. Will it be mostly an air campaign with limited ground action or will it include a vast land campaign as well? What are the tangible goals?

2. Who is winning the propaganda war: Israel or Hamas? How is Arab and international media covering the clashes and to whose advantage?

3. How are Arab Governments reacting to the confrontation? Egypt, Saudi, Qatar, Jordan, Morocco, others. Are the demonstrations putting significant pressure on these Governments?

WMD Strikes "highly or less" likely over the next five years? US Report discussed

By Walid Phares

An intelligence assessment, the "Internal Homeland Security Threat Assessment for the years 2008-2013, obtained by the Associated Press projected several "dramatic" developments. Among these projections that Terrorism directed against the US will "continue to be driven by instability in the Middle East and Africa." The report asserted that WMD attacks "could be carried out against America" but then added that "these threats are also the most unlikely because it is so difficult for al-Qaida and similar groups to acquire the materials needed to carry out such plots." The report reasserts a number of predictions made before and noted that increasing numbers of individuals will pose as refugees or asylum seekers.

The Taliban-Heroin Connection

By Douglas Farah

The case of Khan Mohammed is drawing wide-spread coverage, and rightly so. He is the first known Taliban to convicted of drug trafficking. He was sentenced yesterday to two life sentences.

It was another (along with Viktor Bout, Monzar al Kassar, and other "shadow facilitators") in a series of successful, aggressive moves by the Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA) in tackling not just drugs, but those that use the money to arm those who want to carry out attacks around the globe, particularly aimed at the United States.

As prosecutor Matthew Stiglitz said in court yesterday, Mohammed's "significance ultimately rests with the symbiotic confluence of two worlds: drugs and terrorism. Without him or men like him, there is no effective insurgency in Afghanistan."

The same can be said for numerous insurgent groups that continue to exist because of the money generated from the nexus to organized crime.

I know I have hammered on this point a lot recently, but there is still so little attention focused on this that I think it is necessary, especially when the concept is so strongly reinforced by a tangible case.

This is the future, and we must understand what is coming at us if effective policies are going to be made, and resources allocated, to combat it. There is no doubt states such as Iran, North Korea, Venezuela and Russia present a host of challenges. There is also no doubt that these states need and profit from non-state groups that rely on these shadow facilitators and criminal/terrorist organizations to carry out certain policy objectives. My full blog is here.

Follow the Money

By Matthew Levitt

Writing in today's LA Times, Michael Jacobson and I argue the benefits of including a robust effort to combat terror finance as part of a broader counterterrorism strategy. Used in tandem with other tools, combating the financing of terrorism represents a powerful weapon in tackling the terrorist threat facing the nation today

The terrorist attacks on the transportation system in London in July 2005 killed 52 innocent people but only cost about $15,000 to carry out. The 2000 attack on the U.S. destroyer Cole in Yemen and the 2004 train attacks in Madrid set the terrorists back about $10,000 each. Even the 9/11 attacks -- the largest-scale terrorist plot in history -- cost less than $500,000, according to the 9/11 commission report.

Unfortunately, cutting off all funding for terrorist organizations is next to impossible, making efforts to combat terrorism financing seem a fruitless exercise, particularly with devastating terrorist attacks being so cheap to mount.

But the Obama administration would be wise to retain targeting of terrorists' financing as a key part the U.S. government's counter-terrorism tool kit.

Although mounting a terrorist attack is relatively inexpensive, the cost of maintaining a terrorist infrastructure is high. Terrorist networks need cash to train, equip and pay operatives and their families and to promote their causes. Recruiting, training, traveling, bribing corrupt officials and other such activities also cost money. Limiting their ability to raise funds therefore limits their ability to function.

The full article is available here.

The Fort Dix Homegrown Case: Expert Report, Training Video, "Target America" Report, Exhibit Library

By Evan Kohlmann

Following today’s conviction of five men in New Jersey federal court for plotting to kill members of the U.S. military, the NEFA Foundation is providing a copy of my expert report submitted on behalf of prosecutors in the case. Initiated by a "homegrown" cell that was, in the words of one plotter, eager to "hit a heavy concentration of soldiers...", the plan was disrupted in May 2007 as two conspirators attempted to purchase four fully-automatic M-16 machine guns and three semi-automatic AK-47 assault rifles. In addition to attempting to purchase heavy weaponry to supplement their existing arsenal, cell members procured a map of Fort Dix, conducted reconnaissance on the base, and engaged in tactical and firearms training. One conspirator also carried out surveillance on a number of other military targets, including the U.S. Army base at Fort Monmouth, New Jersey and Dover Air Force base in Dover, Delaware.

NEFA has also posted an exclusive video of the Ft. Dix defendants training on firearms, apparently in Pennsylvania. The video, recorded with a cell phone, depicts one of the men demonstrating to a small child how to operate the weapon.

The NEFA Foundation has provided comprehensive coverage of this case, publishing a "Target: America" report, as well as a library of exhibits introduced into evidence during the course of the trial.

Jihad by the Shoe: Who Was Behind it and why?

By Walid Phares

As I observed the immediate aftermath of the shoe throwing incident in Baghdad, I noted that the most striking effect occurred among the Western public, and particularly within the United States. Commentators and regular citizens were asking themselves again, seven years later, “why do they hate us?” missing one more time the fact that this particular violent expression, far from being a unique emotional reaction by one individual, is part of a war of ideas; it is a continuous organized confrontation over the future of the region. In short, this was another form of Jihadism, one I am coining now as a Jihad by the Shoe (Jihad bil Hizaa). Here is why.

Iran: most pressing issue for 2009

By Olivier Guitta

Last week, the French National Assembly (equivalent of Congress) issued a report concluding that Iran could get a nuclear weapon anywhere between 2009 and 2010.
It did not get the coverage it deserved but is a reminder that Iran needs to be a focus for the incoming Obama administration.
I wrote an article on this topic for The Middle East Times.
You can read it in full here.

Here is an excerpt:

While the recent focus of the world's media has been on the global economic crisis, another issue of major concern is looming: Iran and its nuclear program. The incoming U.S. administration of Barack Obama is going to have to tackle this issue in the first days of office. Indeed, even though it did not get much coverage, the French National Assembly issued an alarming report which assessed that Iran could get its first nuclear bomb between 2009 and 2010.

This assessment is the result of a one-year research where numerous experts were interviewed both in Iran and outside of Islamic Republic.

The president of the commission, Socialist MP Jean-Louis Bianco is certain that the Iranian nuclear program is military.

Said Bianco: "The Iranians have enriched 1,600 kilos of uranium but are unable to give an answer, to show a concrete project when one asks them about the advances of their civilian program. Why?"

Pakistan Blames 'Anti-Shia', 'Al Qaeda Affiliate' Lashkar-e-Jhangvi for Marriott Hotel Attack

By Animesh Roul

Pakistan's interior Affairs advisor Rehman Malik has blamed the anti Shia, Al-Qaeda affiliate terrorist group Lashkar- e- Jhangvi for the Marriott hotel suicide attack in Islamabad, that killed over sixty people including Czech ambassador, couple of US Soldiers and many foreigners on September 20. Nearly 200 others were injured in the attack. According to earlier reports, the suicide bomber detonated a truck packed with around 600 kg of explosives (RDX) at the Marriott.

Soon after the attack in September last, a lesser known group Fidayeen-e-Islam had claimed responsibility while warning for more such attacks on Westerners. One spokesman identified himself as Ahmad Shah Abdali, reportedly told Al Arabiya TV in Islamabad over phone about the outfit’s involvement and put some condition to stop attacks against the US interests in Pakistan, including an end to the Pak-US cooperation. The initial suspicion was on another Al Qaeda affiliate terror group, Harkatul Jehad-ul Islami. However, Malik has said in the parliament on Dec 22 that the investigating agencies have completed their investigation into Marriott incident which was planned and executed by the LeJ.

For background information of Lashkar-e-Jhangvi, read my article here, published in the Terrorism Monitor, Vol. 3 (11) June 3, 2005.

Excerpt:

….Its core objectives: namely the eradication of Pakistan’s Shi’a community and the eventual transformation of the country into a Taliban style Islamic state. Lashkar-e-Jhangvi (LeJ - Jhangvi’s Army), firmly allied to the Taliban and the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU) and with loose links to al-Qaeda, is undoubtedly the most prolific and callous terrorist organization in Pakistan.

Ostensibly a break-away faction of Sipah-e-Sahaba Pakistan (SSP), LeJ was founded in 1996 by an extremist triumvirate within SSP - namely Riaz Basra, Akram Lahori and Malik Ishaque. Inspired by the ideals of SSP’s founding leader Maulana Haq Nawaz Jhangvi, Basra and his followers accused the SSP leadership of not following the ideals of its slain leader. Another plausible reason for the emergence of LeJ was the rising violence of Sipah-e-Mohammed Pakistan (SMP), a Shi’a organization formed in 1994, ostensibly to target the leaders of SSP. Many top leaders of the SSP, including Israr-ul-Haq Qasmi and Zia ur-Rahman Farooqi were assassinated by SMP extremists in the following years. However it is widely believed that the split of 1996 was manufactured to protect the political integrity of SSP and enable the so-called breakaway faction to transform itself into a purely paramilitary-terrorist organization. In any case, events since 1996 have proved beyond doubt that the LeJ constitutes the armed wing of the SSP and is ultimately controlled by the leaders of that powerful and Saudi-backed sectarian organization.

Murky Intelligence on Obama's Intel Picks

By James Gordon Meek

Over at the New York Daily News' Mouth of the Potomac Blog, we've been studying the signs pointing to who will run U.S. spy agencies in the Obama administration. The scattered chicken bones tell us Director of National Intelligence Mike McConnell can’t retire to South Carolina soon enough. Good thing, too, because reports suggest he’ll be replaced by retired Navy Adm. Dennis Blair.

CIA Director Michael Hayden may have been disappointed at the prospect of having to box up his suite at Langley, but ABC News reported he rallied by clicking with the President-elect during secret intel briefings - and may stay on.

“That’s what we’re hearing,” a Democratic operative steeped in national security affairs told me on Friday.

Some Democrats on Capitol Hill have strongly advocated the elevation of Hayden’s popular deputy, career CIA case officer and ex-Marine Steve Kappes - if not immediately, he might succeed Hayden later, they say.

Team Obama has not sent many smoke signals, beyond apparently caving to the whims of liberal bloggers. The transition’s intelligence adviser John Brennan recently withdrew from consideration for a top intel post amid some bloggers’ absurd claims that the waterboarding critic was secretly an ardent supporter of torture while serving in top CIA posts under ex-Director George Tenet. Other bloggers questioned the accusations but Brennan was evidently doomed regardless.

If Hayden sticks around, it’s an incredible political achievement for the retired four-star Air Force general. On the Hill, some lawmakers have been setting fires under a CIA boss they deem too close to controversial Team Bush counterterror policies - while others tried to douse them.

On Nov. 13, Congressional Quarterly reporters Keith Perine and Tim Starks quoted incoming Senate Intelligence Committeee Chairman Dianne Feinstein (D-Calif.) saying, “My view is that it’s time for a new start.”

But last week, Hayden loyalists leapt at remarks by House Intelligence Committee Chairman Silvestre Reyes (D-Tex.), who stated flatly that he wanted Hayden and McConnell to stay put - at least until Obama is sworn in.

“I made a recommendation that they stay on during the transition so that there would be a period of time that there would be overlap,” Reyes told Congress Daily’s Chris Strohm in an interview.

If Hayden stays, it’s interesting that Obama would dis the wishes of the incoming Intelligence Committee chairman. The Senate, not the House, has the power to confirm presidential appointees such as the DNI and CIA director. Hayden would not need to be reconfirmed if he stayed on, but the Senate carries heft because of its “advise and consent” authority.

In any case, Obama is vacationing in Hawaii through the holidays, so the answer will likely come late in the year if not in January.

New York Office Building used by Iranian regime, seized by Feds

By Walid Phares

The US Government seized control last Wednesday of a New York City office building partially owned by a company with ties to the Iranian government. The Treasury and Justice Departments move is aimed to end a flow of cash used to help Iran's program of nuclear weapons. The seizure is raising troubling questions.

Counter-Terrorist Drills Take Place Across Indonesia

By Kenneth Conboy

Starting Friday and culminating on Sunday (21 December), Indonesia held a series of joint counter-terrorism exercises across the country. Sunday’s drills took place at six locations: Jakarta, Bali, Surabaya, Semarang, Jogjakarta, and the Strait of Malacca. They involved simulated clashes with terrorists, hostage-takings, and rescues.

In Jakarta, members of Unit 81 (part of the army’s Special Forces) and Special Detachment 88 (from the police) fast-roped onto the roof of the five-star Borobudur Hotel before blasting through windows to rescue hotel guests taken "hostage."

In the Strait of Malacca, counter-terrorist commandos from the navy stormed a passenger ship that had been seized in a mock attack.

In Semarang, counter-terrorist squads retook a power-plant, killing five terrorists and capturing two others.

In Surabaya, drills took place at the city’s international airport, the Sheraton Hotel, and the Shangri-La Hotel.

The weekend’s exercises were obviously inspired in large part by what happened in Mumbai. In addition, following some two-dozen deadly church bombings during Christmas Eve 2000 by the Jemaah Islamiyah terrorist organization, Indonesian security forces normally go on high alert during the Christmas and New Year holidays.

NEFA Foundation: Islamic Army in Iraq (IAI) Admits Grudging “Admiration” for Aspects of U.S. Election

By Evan Kohlmann

The NEFA Foundation has obtained and translated a new communiqué from the media spokesman of the Islamic Army in Iraq (IAI), Dr. Ali al-Nuaimi, concerning the recent U.S. presidential elections. According to Dr. al-Nuaimi’s statement, “There were significant lessons demonstrated during the recent American elections… [such as] how Hillary [Clinton] stepped down after facing increasing support for Obama in the polls… She has put aside all disagreements and previous conflicts with him in order to work together, along with their party, to achieve victory… This story presents a valuable lesson to our own honored nation, in which our people, our leaders, our clergy, and the mujahideen all fight amongst each other… In our nation, we witness disgraceful acts of competition between people, even using legal tactics, and refusing to support others during their campaign to achieve their goals… It is truly a shame… Another admirable scene took place after McCain’s defeat, when he went out to speak to his supporters and continued on in listing his mistakes and congratulating Obama for his victory… Despite the devastating defeats they suffered, each candidate avoided criticizing or attempting to demonize the other—or even trying to harm or kill their opponents, similar to what takes place among candidates in our nation… All of their differences have been transformed into support and assistance, and that is a fact to admire.” However, the IAI also strongly warned its supporters not to become hopelessly “mesmerized” by the landmark election of Obama: “The shared hatred for America around the world may change after the historic election of a black president. Dear brothers, this issue is of supreme importance… We should not become mesmerized by our enemies… People tend to imitate their lords and teachers, the defeated mimick the victorious, and the weak imitate the strong… Becoming hypnotized by the infidels and their capabilities is an unfortunate thing.”

An English translation of the IAI statement can be downloaded from the NEFA Foundation website.

OIC's "Defamation" declaration could be used by Jihadi Terror networks

By Walid Phares

Over the past nine months, a major campaign promoted by member-states in the Organization of the Islamic Conference (OIC) and its Secretariat General has been aiming at forcing a declaration on "defamation of religion" on the United Nations. The OIC, influenced by radical ideologues including the International Union of Clerics headed by Sheikh Yusuf Qardawi, wants the UN to vote a law banning and punishing any criticism of religion in general and of critical debates about Islam in particular. Aside from obstructing reformers and suppressing democratic movements within Muslim societies, the OIC move will be used by Jihadi Terror networks to further their ideological indoctrination.

Excerpt:

Jihadist abuse

Perhaps the most dangerous consequence of the adoption of vague "anti-defamation" legislation -- allegedly to address "Islamophobia" -- will be to embolden the Jihadi Islamist movements around the world into further violence. Indeed, both Salafists and Khomeinists already claim they are defending the Muslim world against infidels. If the OIC is successful in forcing such a declaration through the UN or the Durban II Conference into international law, Jihadists around the world will score a tremendous moral and psychological victory by claiming that the present conflicts are indeed about religion, and that Islam is indeed under attack at the hands of Infidels. An anti-defamation declaration will validate al Qaeda's agenda and reinforce the Iranian regime's ambitions. The Jihadists' ideology, based essentially on their interpretation of theology, builds radicalization by asserting that they are the defenders of the faith. A declaration against the defamation of Islam declaration will serve their strategic interests perfectly, and fuel their indoctrination processes. In short, it will protect their Takfiri ideology.

Following is the entire article:

An Interesting Look at the Importance of Hezbollah and the Future of Warfare

By Douglas Farah

This interesting study by the U.S. Army's Strategic Studies Institute of the 2006 Hezbollah-Israel wars offers some important insights not only into that conflict, but why Hezbollah matters and how their actions can affect how future wars develop.

The study, first brought to public attention by the Haaretz newspaper,concludes that Hezbollah fought the war not as an "information age guerrillas," but as a prototype of a new hybrid force that also relies on conventional tactics and structures.

The report also concludes Hezbollah fought better than any other Arab force to fight with Israel.

The report is worth reading because, whether one agrees or not with everything there, it is thought-provoking. It is particularly important given Hezbollah's growing strength and reach in Latin America, because it shows that the movement has a disciplined, innovative military mind-set.

This discipline and ability to take the long view is why it is so difficult, to my thinking, to dismiss the presence of Iran and Hezbollah in Latin America.

These state and nonstate groups operating in a coordinated fashion, are are exerting a great deal effort and a considerable sum of money in troubled economic times to pursue their agenda. It is hard to believe they would do that for no return, or without an expected strategic payoff.

This combination (state-nonstate) may be an important factor in understanding how Hezbollah as developed over time to look like a more conventional force. Without state support, that would likely not be possible.

As an aside, it also maintains strong ties with other militant groups, such as Hamas and the international Muslim Brotherhood, as this remarkable photograph from the Holy Land trial exhibits show, dug out by the NEFA Foundation. My full blog is here.

NEFA Foundation: Fatah al-Islam Claims Death of Leader, Endorses Terror Financing Through Bank Robberies

By Evan Kohlmann

The NEFA Foundation has obtained and translated two new communiqués from the Al-Qaida-linked Fatah al-Islam in Lebanon and Syria. On November 29, Fatah al-Islam issued a statement condemning “Syria’s entrance into the public arena against Fatah al-Islam… If this organization is wiped out, then no other force will remain in Lebanon besides the force of [Hizballah]. This stands in accord with the Iranian policy aimed at controlling the region.” On December 8, the group distributed a second statement claiming, among other things, that its commander Shaykh Shakir al-Absi has been missing and is presumed dead following a failed bid to join Al-Qaida in Iraq. According to the statement, al-Absi and a group of aides left their former base in Lebanon for Syria “in order to allow their wounds to heal, to reestablish the [communication] channels that were cut off during the war, and to rebuild the organization… [Al-Absi] started contacting the brothers from the Islamic State of Iraq (ISI), through people who were well-known to the ISI, and was also trying to reach the brothers in Afghanistan—though not with much success.” Fatah al-Islam was also specifically insistent on the legitimacy of committing bank robberies as a financing tactic: “we say, relying on Allah, that stealing money from the infidels, from the usurious banks and the institutions which belong to the infidel regimes and states, is a legal thing which Allah has permitted us to do. This money is being seized from them and instead directed towards jihad and the mujahideen in order to fulfill their needs, to buy equipment etc.”

English translations of the communiques can be downloaded from the NEFA Foundation website.

Gifts from Iran and Russia to Lebanon?

By David Schenker

Lebanese Minister of Defense Elias Murr just returned from Moscow where he received an offer of 10 MIG 29 “Fulcrum” aircraft. The MIGs would be a significant boost to Lebanon’s depleted and antiquated fixed wing fleet, which today is comprised of some five 1950s-era Hunter Hawker aircraft.

The Russian donation compliments the Iranian offer this past November—in response to Lebanese President Michel Suleiman’s request—to provide weapons to the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF).

Given Lebanon’s limited defense budget, it’s hard to imagine how the LAF would finance the maintenance of the Russian aircraft. Moreover, if Beirut were to accept the Russian and Iranian offers, there could be significant implications for US relations with the LAF. Since the 2005 Cedar Revolution and the subsequent withdrawal of Syrian troops from Lebanon, Washington has provided nearly $500 million in military assistance to Lebanon.

Washington has not yet commented on the prospective Iranian and Russian arms deals. The response from Lebanon’s pro-west March 14th coalition-led Government has so far been non-committal. But the gifts--and the ramifications for US-Lebanese relations--are no doubt appealing to Hizballah and its Lebanese allies.

Also on the Russian front, recent reports suggest that Israel may be in the process of selling Hermes 450 UAVs to Moscow. (As you might recall, a Russian MIG 29 was said to have shot down one of these Israeli-made drones during the invasion of Georgia this past August). According to the Lebanese daily An Nahar, the Israelis aren’t pleased about the potential MIG 29 deal, but the UAV sale appears unrelated to this development. More likely, the Israelis are hoping the UAV sales provide some leverage in helping to convince the Russians to not sell advanced SA-20 anti-aircraft weapons to Iran.

The Only Thing Worse Than Doing Nothing...

By Douglas Farah

While it appears the United Nations took a step forward by authorizing military actions on land to combat Somali pirates, the truth is, it is another mistake in dealing with the region.

I am not against the sentiment of the UN action. I think hot pursuit into Somali territory to free ships, hostages and combat terrorism are fully warranted, and indeed necessary.

With a portion of the ships' ransom money going to Islamist terrorists and another portion going to leaders of the feckless government, all in the interests of fueling a senseless war that has destroyed a nation beyond repair, one can make a powerful argument that something must be done.

Indeed, the content of Resolution 1851, which I applaud, authorizes for one year states already involved in fighting piracy off Somalia to "take all necessary measures that are appropriate in Somalia" to suppress "acts of piracy and armed robbery at sea."

Unlike previous resolutions, the current text empowers states combating piracy to conduct operations on land in Somalia.

Secretary of State Rice hailed adoption of the resolution, saying it sent a "strong signal to combat the scourge of piracy" and stressing the need "to end the impunity of Somali pirates."

But it isn't going to happen. And that sets up the UN (and by extension the US and others who pushed the measure) for failure and a show of weakness.

The only thing worse than taking no action when it is required is to promise action, and then fail to deliver. It reveals the weakness to do anything other than talk and threaten. If you have to do that, than you are likely not actually going to act. My full blog is here.

Europe in the eye of the storm

By Olivier Guitta

While the terror scare in a Paris large department store yesterday got a lot of coverage, first elements of the investigation are pointing towards a very amateurish operation. No Islamist terror group warns in advance of an attack and leaves five old sticks of dynamite.
Anyway what has been much more worrisome than this event has been the arrests made in the past few weeks in France, Italy and Belgium connected to alleged jihadists.
In light of this, I wrote an article in the Middle East Times on the current situation in Europe.
You can read the full article here.

Here is an excerpt:
Europe is one of al-Qaida's highest priorities. If anyone needed any proof, events from last week were another wake-up call. Indeed, on Dec. 11 Belgium dismantled what authorities called "the Belgian branch of al-Qaida."

Two hundred and forty-two Belgian police officers took part in an operation that netted the arrests of 14 suspects, while French police also arrested two suspects tied to that network. One of the suspects is believed by authorities to be a likely suicide bomber who may have had plans to target an EU summit that was taking place in Brussels on Dec. 11.

The United States provided Belgian authorities with valuable intelligence that showed that the alleged suicide bomber was given the green light to carry out the operation. He also left a martyrdom video and apparently bid farewell to his family that was supposedly on the verge of leaving the country.

The intelligence was so damning that Belgian Prime Minister Guy Leterme thought about canceling the EU summit. Instead, law-enforcement agents moved in swiftly to arrest the cell. Knowing al-Qaida's fascination with the 11th of the month - not only Sept. 11, but also Mar. 11 in Madrid, Mar.11, 2007 in Casablanca, and Dec. 11, 2007 in Algiers - it might not be a coincidence that this operation may have been planned for Dec. 11.

These arrests came after a year-long investigation that focused on closely monitoring an Islamist group composed of mainly Belgian and French individuals of North African descent who fought on the Pakistan-Afghan border against the West and returned to Europe.

Four important members of this cell had traveled to the region, via Turkey, Iran and Pakistan, to meet with al-Qaida leaders. The leader is still there but two of the militants came back a few months ago, and more importantly the alleged suicide bomber came back to Belgium on Dec. 4, which triggered alarm bells.

Out of the 14 arrested, six have already been charged with membership of a terrorist group. Some of those charged were of Moroccan origin [for more on this please view my last week's column The Moroccan Terror Connection]. All are Belgian citizens, including two converts to Islam. Among the charged, is cyber jihadist star Malika al-Aroud, whose first husband killed himself when he murdered anti-Taliban fighter Ahmed Massoud on Sept. 9, 2001. Her second husband, Moez Garsalloui, is believed to be the leader of the cell and is reportedly in Afghanistan.

Iran's NYC Footprint: 5th Ave Property Owned by Bank Melli Front and Alavi Foundation

By Matthew Levitt

The U.S. Treasury designated ASSA CORP., a New York front company created and controlled by Iran's Bank Melli, as well as its parent organization in the Channel Islands, ASSA CO. LTD. Treasury noted that Bank Melli's deceptive financial practices and proliferation financing led the United States, the European Union and Australia to designate Bank Melli, and the United Nations to issue a call for vigilance with respect to all Iranian banks. The United Kingdom also released a "supplemental notice on Iran" related to Bank Melli.

According to the Treasury Department:

ASSA CORP. has repeatedly transferred rental income generated from the 650 Fifth Avenue partnership back to Bank Melli through ASSA CO. LTD. ASSA CORP. also has regularly followed Bank Melli's instructions with regard to ASSA CORP.'s affairs and its management of the investment, and has regularly reported back to Bank Melli on its financial situation, including frequently responding to Bank Melli requests for audits and information regarding company expenses.

Perhaps most interesting, however, is that according to Treasury "ASSA CORP. co-owns the building through a partnership formed with the Alavi Foundation of New York, called 650 Fifth Avenue Company."

The Alavi Foundation has long been suspected of serving as a front for Iran. In the course of a Senate Finance Committee probe in 2004, the committee requested asked the IRS for records on the Alavi Foundation and several other Islamic charities. Former U.S. officials, including former senior FBI counterterrorism official Oliver "Buck" Revell, linked the Alavi Foundation to Iran more than a decade ago. A 1996 press report quotes Revell, as stating that the Alavi Foundation was "essentially an arm of the Iranian government operating through" the UN mission in New York. One of its functions was that "it keeps track of Iranian nationals in the U.S. and funds groups loyal" to Ayatollah Khanenei.

In a 2002 affidavit, former CIA deputy director and NYPD Deputy Commissioner David Cohen, reportedly also described the Alavi Foundation as "totally controlled by Iran." According to press coverage of the affidavit:

The reference to the Alavi Foundation comes in a document Mr. Cohen filed September 12, 2002, signed under penalty of perjury. In a section of the declaration headed "terrorist activity," the declaration states, "The Alavi Foundation is a non-profit charitable organization ostensibly run by an independent board of directors but totally controlled by the government of Iran. The foundation has assets of about $100,000,000 in the U.S. and an annual income of between $10-15 million. The foundation funds a variety of anti-American causes, including the four Islamic education centers it owns in New York, Maryland, Texas and California.

"The Maryland center is headed by Mohammad Al Asi, an American convert to Islam who, during the Kuwait crisis, called on Muslims to strike against American interests in the Middle East. Mosques funded by Alavi have organizations which support Hezbollah and Hamas."

Treasury's press release announcing today's designation assures the action "does not interfere with the business and other activities of the tenants of 650 Fifth Avenue, and U.S. persons are not prohibited from dealing with business establishments or other tenants of the building." The tenants may not have anything to worry about, but the action may be a shot across the bow of the building's co-owner, the Alavi Foundation.

U.S. Continues Sanctions Campaign Against Iranian Financial System

By Andrew Cochran

The U.S. Treasury Department announced a new designation against Assa Corporation, a front company in New York City, and its parent organization, Assa Co. Ltd,, located in the Channel Islands. Concurrently, the Justice Department has filed a complaint in federal court to force Assa to forfeit its interest in its headquarters building in New York City, and funds have been seized by DOJ from Assa's bank accounts. Both allege that Assa is a front company owned and operated by Iran's Bank Melli, which Treasury designated on October 25, 2007, for its role in financing Iran's nuclear proliferation program. A quote from the Treasury Department press release:

"Bank Melli created ASSA CORP. as a vehicle to hold Bank Melli's interest in a building located at 650 Fifth Avenue, New York, New York, whose construction had been financed, in part, by a Bank Melli loan. ASSA CORP. co-owns the building through a partnership formed with the Alavi Foundation of New York, called 650 Fifth Avenue Company. ASSA CORP. has repeatedly transferred rental income generated from the 650 Fifth Avenue partnership back to Bank Melli through ASSA CO. LTD. ASSA CORP. also has regularly followed Bank Melli's instructions with regard to ASSA CORP.'s affairs and its management of the investment, and has regularly reported back to Bank Melli on its financial situation, including frequently responding to Bank Melli requests for audits and information regarding company expenses."

We discussed the designation of Bank Melli (and Bank Saderat) when it was announced and have continued to cover the scope and impacts of that decision and the U.S. sanctions campaign against the Iranian financial system, most recently in Matthew Levitt's December 11 post, which links to the article, "The U.S. Campaign to Squeeze Terrorists' Financing," by Matthew and Michael Jacobson. Today's joint actions by the Treasury and Justice Departments send a strong signal that counter-terrorist and anti-proliferation financing measures remain among the highest priorities of the Executive Branch during the transition to a new President. The sanctions campaign has included the designation of Iran's Bank Sepah in early 2007 and the Treasury Department’s announcement on November 6th cutting off “U-Turn” privileges under general license for all transactions involving Iran’s financial institutions.

Standing Up to Terrorist Abuse of Charities

By Matthew Levitt

My colleague Mike Jacobson and I are not the only ones to recently highlight the connection between a prominent, designated charity (Jamaat u-Dawa, JUD) and the recent terrorist attacks in Mumbai. Yesterday's Saudi-owned Asharq Alawsat ran an editorial by the paper's editor-in-chief, Tariq Alhomayed, entitled "Charities...Again!" in which the author also notes this connection and decries the continued terrorist abuse of charities. Calling for "strict financial monitoring of charitable work," Alhomayed speaks truth to power when he writes, in the Arab press:

It is unfortunate that the exploitation of financial aid offered by charities, and the damage that is being caused to the concept of charity, is continuing, with reports of new scandals surfacing from time to time. The West certainly has its own problems regarding the abuse of charity work, but these problems are corrected through high levels of transparency and continuous efforts.

Transparency is indeed what is needed, especially given the evolutionary nature of illicit finance and the tendency for terrorist-affiliated charities shut under one name to reopen under other names.

As Jacobson and I noted in our recent study, "The Money Trail," charities are especially susceptible to abuse and, when abused, can serve as ideal money laundering mechanisms.

Evolution of terrorists’ financing methods have cut across the spectrum of raising, laundering, transferring, storing, and accessing funds. As authorities have cracked down, for example, on charities that were financing illicit activity around the globe, some of these charities have devolved decisionmaking to local offices and personnel. Some charities tied to illicit activities reportedly instruct donors to fund their regional offices directly, instead of going through central offices. They also hire local people as staff so as not to raise suspicion among authorities. Speaking of radical Islamist efforts to radicalize and recruit young Muslims in Zanzibar, Tanzania, a local Islamic leader noted that “there are some [charitable] agencies that sometimes use a native of the village [to recruit] because the others would be caught by the police.” Similarly, there has been a shift in funding from investment in specific programs to investment in large infrastructure projects. Such infrastructure is not only much needed but also provides effective cover for the transfer of substantial sums of money overseas. In the Philippines, for example, investigators found that terrorist financiers supporting the Abu Sayyaf Group and Raja Sulayman Movement facilitated the construction of mosques and schools under the supervision of Mohammad Shugair, a Saudi national linked by Philippine authorities to terrorist financing.

As I've written before, there can be no doubt that charity is a value of paramount importance to donors and recipients alike. Recognizing, as illicit actors already have, that the charitable sector is vulnerable to abuse and devising policies that protect charities from abuse even as they promote charitable giving is the true challenge. That a prominent columnist in a prominent Arab newspaper concurs is progress worth noting.

A Look At Why Even Good Plans Fail

By Douglas Farah

We often wonder why, even when armed with the best of intentions and perhaps even sound plans, counterinsurgency and counterterrorism efforts seem futile once the fighting stops. Billions of dollars later (and often a good many deaths of our military personnel and others), things head south.

Two stories today offer a partial answer to that question, and demonstrate vividly that a military victory is only a small part of what counterinsurgency and counterterrorism actually are. There have been victories in both Afghanistan (the U.S. and NATO) and Somalia (Ethiopia with U.S. support).

The first story is a reflection in the Washington Post Outlook section on total failure of the Afghan government to mitigate rampant corruption and abuse. The government has often been aided and abetted by international donors and others who value short-term fixes over true reform.

The point made is that the Taliban is resurgent, and somewhat accepted, because the government offers nothing better, or at least is perceived to be corrupt beyond redemption.

I think this is somewhat simplistic and misses some important issues (the Taliban's ability to finance itself through opium etc.), but people living through the current Afghanistan situation say the current level of corruption and abuse by those in power has made a mockery of the government and stripped it of all legitimacy. Perhaps the difference is that government drug traffickers and warlords work only for themselves while the Taliban sends at least some of its illicit proceeds on upgrading the fighting capabilities of its forces.

If the government we support and pour billions of dollars into, cannot come off in the minds of the vast majority of citizens as clearly better, then the efforts are worth little.

The second story is the astounding news that, although the government controls nothing of importance in Somalia and the radical Islamist extremists are now in the capital again holding press conferences, the president and prime minister are at each other's throats. My full blog is here.

While We're Looking Elsewhere

By Frank Hyland

Once declared "finished" by the Government of Peru, its leaders imprisoned, its ranks reduced greatly in numbers, Peru's Sendero Luminoso (SL) ("Shining Path") has been percolating along, preserving its options and taking in revenues. As did Colombia's FARC before it, SL has reinvented itself as a drug-related operation, both providing protection for full-time purveyors and producing and processing Cocaine in areas under its control. The danger for Peru -- and for others, including the US -- is that SL will be the subject of derision while it continues to grow into a state within a state, metasticizing into a threat that will be, at the very least, vastly more difficult to combat.

The full article may be viewed on the Jamestown Foundation's website.

INDIA: Mumbai Terror Probe Leads to Pakistan's "Epicenter of Terrorism"

By Animesh Roul

Originaly Published as "Mumbai Terror Investigation Leads to Pakistan’s “Epicenter of Terrorism” in Terrorism Focus (Jamestown Foundation), Vol. 5 (42), December 12, 2008.

………The probe so far has pointed to four LeT operatives. The “masterminds” are identified as Zaki-ur Rehman Lakhvi, who was seized by Pakistani police after a raid on a LeT camp in Kashmir, and Yusuf Muzammil, whose current whereabouts are unknown. Based on the results of police interrogations, two individuals identified as Abu Hamza and Khafa have been named as trainers who provided maritime lessons and training in the handling of explosives and weapons (Times of India, December 6; Daily Times [Lahore], December 12). According to Rakesh Maria, the Joint Commissioner of Police and a lead investigator in the Mumbai attacks, Jamaat-ud-Dawa (JuD, a charity and front organization for LeT) chief Hafiz Muhammad Saeed was also involved with Lakhvi, Hamza and Kahfa in the Mumbai plot, from planning to execution (Press Trust of India, December 10). Earlier, government sources claimed that the investigators had “incontrovertible proof” of the names of the ISI handlers and trainers and the locations in Pakistan where the terrorist training was carried out. Police also claimed to have recovered some of terrorists’ communications through Voice over Internet Protocol (VoIP) (The Hindu, December 5). With the help of foreign investigating agencies, especially the FBI, Mumbai police tracked the VoIP number brought from Orlando, Florida, which was used by the terrorists to talk to Zaki-ur Rehman Lakhvi, who is currently under detention in Pakistan along with 20 other LeT and Jaysh-e-Mohammed operatives (Indian Express, December 10).

The fishing trawler in which the terrorists reached the Mumbai coast, the MV Kuber, had an inventory of items that established a Pakistani hand in the attacks, including wheat flour, dental gel and shaving cream all bearing “Made in Pakistan” tags. The Thuraya satellite phone recovered from the abandoned trawler contained records of a conversation between LeT chief Yusuf Muzammil, based in the Kashmiri city of Muzafarabad, and an individual known as Yahya, believed to be a point man for the LeT and Harkat-ul-Jihad-al-Islami (HuJI) in Bangladesh. Yahya reportedly arranged SIM (subscriber identity module) cards and fake ID cards, primarily from countries like Mauritius, the UK, the United States and Australia. The satellite phone also has records of calls traced to Zaki-ur Rehman Lakhvi in Jalalabad in Afghanistan (Times of India, November 30).

Interrogation of the lone surviving terrorist has revealed details of LeT training camps in Danna, Abdul-Bin-Masud, Mangla Dam, Akas, Um-Al-Qura, Badli and Muzafarabad in Pakistan-Administered Kashmir. Mumbai’s Crime Branch denied the involvement of more than ten terrorists in these multiple attacks, adding that the terrorists behind the Mumbai attacks were trained at four places inside Pakistan: Manshera, Muridke, Muzafarabad and Karachi (Daily News and Analysis [Mumbai], December 7).

For complete article, read here

NEFA Foundation: Growing Chorus of Sunni Militants in Iraq Turn On Al-Qaida

By Evan Kohlmann

The NEFA Foundation has obtained and translated recent communiqués from two major Sunni insurgent groups active in Iraq, voicing their solidarity with and support for the Mujahideen Army in their ongoing war of words with the leader of Al-Qaida in Iraq Abu Hamza al-Muhajir.

On November 6, the Saad Bin Abu Waqas Brigades (SBAW) issued a statement warning, “the brothers from [Al-Qaida] have, more than once, accused the mujahideen at large of being infidels, hypocrites, and apostates. This issue is dangerous and serves only the interests of the enemies of the Islamic nation. It weakens the mujahideen, igniting discord and conflicts amongst them, and it inspires treacherous decisions concerning the permissibility of [spilling] blood and [seizing] money… It spreads anarchy within the mujahideen… We express our astonishment and surprise at the repeated targeting of the mujahideen and the doubts raised about them without any proof… We call upon the brothers from [Al-Qaida] to refrain from abandoning the mujahideen, targeting them, and placing them in the circle of the infidels, apostates, and hypocrites without any evidence or proof. We believe that this action will only support the interests of the enemies of Islam and jihad.”

Days later, on November 11, the commanders of the Al-Fatihin Army in Iraq also published their own reaction to “Abu Hamza al-Muhajir’s fabrications… The threats that he has made to some of these [insurgent] factions represent one of the most critical factors in weakening the jihad, wasting the lives of mujahideen, and causing quarreling and infighting amongst them—leading to bloodshed and the wasting of financial resources. This serves nothing but the interests of the enemies of Islam… especially when the accusations are coming from one of the commanders of the jihad and its symbols.” The Al-Fatihin Army added, “concerning [Abu Hamza’s] claim that he had notified the [insurgent] factions about the declaration of the so-called Islamic State of Iraq (ISI) beforehand—we had no clue about this development, and learned of it only after it was published in the media.”

English translations of the communiques can be downloaded from the NEFA Foundation website.

My CNN Interview with "Al Qaeda Living Legend"

By Paul Cruickshank

Back in February 2006, in a pine-wood chalet in central Switzerland, I interviewed Malika el Aroud, the woman allegedly at the center of the terrorism plot that was broken up today in Belgium.

The interview was for CNN's two hour documentary "In the Footsteps of Bin Laden."

Belgian counter-terrorism sources tell me tonight that it's not clear yet whether the alleged cell members wanted to launch suicide attacks in Europe or whether they instead planned to become "martyrs" in Pakistan or Afghanistan. Several of the alleged cell members had recently returned to Belgium from that region.

Belgian authorities will have a maximum of five days to press charges, before they have to release the suspects. That possibility cannot be discounted. Malika el Aroud was arrested exactly a year ago, in connection with a suspected plot to free an Al Qaeda prisoner in Belgium, but released without charge, because of insufficient evidence.

An account of my exclusive CNN interview with El Aroud can be found here.

The U.S. Campaign to Squeeze Terrorists' Financing

By Matthew Levitt

In an article in the latest volume of the Columbia Journal of International Affairs (Fall/Winter 2008), Michael Jacobson and I argue that while mounting an individual terrorist attack may cost relatively little, money remains of critical importance to terrorist organizations. Without it, terrorist groups would be incapable of maintaining the broad infrastructure necessary to run an effective organization. Finding means to quickly and securely raise, launder, transfer, store and access funds remains a top priority for all terrorist groups, from al Qaeda and its various globally oriented affiliates to regionally focused groups like Hamas and Hezbollah. Terror finance is also an area of rapid change as terrorist organizations actively seek to evade governmental scrutiny and take advantage of new, emerging technologies. The shift in the nature of the global terrorist threat -- from a centralized al Qaeda to a franchise model -- has impacted terrorist financing as well.

Until the September 11, 2001 attacks, combating the financing of terrorism was not a strategic priority for the U.S. government. In the wake of the September 11 attacks, the United States dramatically increased its focus on combating terrorist financing, designating and freezing the assets of numerous terrorist financiers and support networks, prosecuting individuals and entities for providing material support, as well as increasing its focus on "following the money" as a means of collecting financial intelligence.

The full article is available here.

A Belgian Victory over al Qaeda: More lessons to be learned

By Walid Phares

Agence France Presse and the Associated Press are reporting that Belgian authorities have arrested 14 suspected Al Qaeda terrorists including a jihadi who was allegedly planning a suicide attack. Sixteen raids were executed by 242 police officers in Brussels and in the eastern city of Liege. Security and judicial sources described the arrests as the “most important anti-terrorism operation in Belgium.” Citing the Federal prosecutor’s office, AFP reported that the move was targeting “a Belgian Islamist group involved in training as well as fighting on the Pakistan-Afghan border in cooperation with important figures in Al Qaeda.”

Expanding on the arrests campaign, Le Parisien wrote that since 2007 four Belgians and individuals from other nationalities joined a middleman by the name “M.G” in Pakistan (to undertake jihadist activities). A few months ago, two of the men came back to Belgium and were put under surveillance. A third man joined them on December 4. The initial investigation began last year based on information related to a plot to liberate Tunisian Nizar Trabulsi, an Al Qaeda cadre who is currentlly serving 10 years for preparing an attack against a Belgian base.

Sources added that a woman by the name of Malika al Aroud “has played an important role in the investigation.” Al Aroud was married to the assassin of Ahmed Shah Massoud, the anti-Taliban commander in September 2001. Her second husband is a member of the arrested group.

The Nouvel Observateur wrote that the current investigation which was opened in December 2007 “may have prevented an attack in Brussels.” Based on reports in France Info, Le Figaro and other specialized sources, the most likely target of the Al Qaeda network could have been European institutions in Brussels. It should be noted that the arrests were made on the eve of an important European economic summit scheduled to take place in Brussels.

What should we learn from this preemptive strike in Belgium aimed at Al Qaeda’s European network? Based on the scope of the operation, its precision and its timing and my own knowledge gleaned from four years of meetings with European counterterrorism officials as well Belgian national security officials, the short answer is we can learn a lot from this December 11 strike against terror:

Bridging the Persian Gulf

By Matthew Levitt

As my colleague Michael Jacobson argue in an article published in today's Guardian (UK), terrorist networks are active in the Persian Gulf -- including some that finance the group that carried out the Mumbai attack. US diplomacy in the region is the key to combating them.

After months of intense focus on the economy, the recent attack in Mumbai was a sombre reminder that the incoming Obama administration will have to confront many other serious threats as well. Beyond terrorism, Iran's nuclear programme is also likely to be high on the president-elect's priority list. The success of US strategy in tackling and resolving these critical issues will depend, in large part, on how effectively the new administration is able to work with -- and gain the cooperation of -- the countries in the Persian Gulf.
The Mumbai attack offers a case in point. The Gulf remains a major source of funding for al-Qaida and its affiliates, with millions of dollars being sent from the region to terrorist groups. Recipients of this largesse originating in the Gulf include the Pakistani-based Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) -- a UN designated terrorist group now suspected of perpetrating the recent attack in India.

LeT operatives and supporters are particularly active in Saudi Arabia and Kuwait, according to US Treasury department information released in the context of LeT-related terrorist support designations.

Consider, for example, the fact that LeT's finance chief, Haji Muhammad Ashraf, has personally traveled to the Gulf to raise funds for LeT. In 2003, he helped LeT leaders in Saudi Arabia expand the organisation and increase its fundraising activities there. Similarly, the Saudi-based al Haramain Islamic Foundation was designated as a terrorist-supporting entity in part because its office in Pakistan supported LeT.

The full article is available here.

A Bit More on Dawood Ibrahim and Why He Matters

By Douglas Farah

Because of the high interest in my recent post on Dawood Ibrahim and requests for more information, I am adding to that the little more that I know and have learned in recent days.

Ibrahim is known to have at least 8 passports, all issued by India and all from Mumbai, where the recent attacks occurred. He uses well over a dozen aliases, which he uses, along with the names of henchmen and family members, to owe properties around the world, including in United Arab Emirate, Australia, Canada and Pakistan. He is also deeply involved in the informal hawala money transfer trade that moves billions of dollars a year, primarily among Pakistan, the Arab Peninsula and India.

This ability to cross relatively unimpeded between the worlds of legal business, organized criminal activities (kidnapping, extortion, drug running, smuggling of all kinds) and terrorism makes Ibrahim one of the primary "shadow facilitators" in the criminal-terrorist nexus.

Like Viktor Bout, Monzar al Kassar, A.Q Khan and others, these individuals are part of multiple networks, so targeting them brings the added value of making life more difficult for several organizations at the same time.

What makes Ibrahim so interesting is that he is Indian by birth, but now works with Pakistani radicals (and possibly, from time to time, with the ISI), making him, in the eyes of the Indian government, a traitor. This is particularly true given his role in funding Pakistani groups claiming the Kashmir, which is a flashpoint in India.

Yet, like A.Q Khan, he is able to find refuge in the Arab world, primarily, like Khan, Bout and others, in the United Arab Emirates, specifically in Dubai. My full blog is here.

UN Acts to Designate Lashkar e Tayyiba’ Offshoots and Its Leaders As Terrorists Associated With Al Qaeda

By Victor Comras

Last month’s terrorist attacks in Mumbai focused anew a spotlight on the activities of Lashkar e Tayyiba, its offshoots, and its possible links with Al Qaeda. The investigation conducted by India, Pakistan and other cooperating countries has produced new evidence that Lashkar e Tayyiba operatives were directly engaged in planning and providing material support and assistance for the series of Mumbai urban attacks that shook the international community as well as India. Based upon this investigation, and the formal request of the Government of India, the United Nations Al Qaeda and Taliban Sanctions committee agreed December 10th to expanded its designation of Lashkar e Tayyiba to specifically include 4 of its leaders, including Hafiz Muhammad Saeed, Zaki-ur-Rehman Lakhvi, Haji Muhammad Ashraf, and Mohmoud Mohammad Ahmed Bahaziq. The United States had been pushing for this action since last May. The UN Committee has now also agreed to clarify that the Lashkar e Tayyiba designation also applies to Jamaat-ud-Dawa (JUD), which has long operated as an LET front organization (see below).

I expressed my concerns here two years ago with the UN Committee’s failure to designate Jammat-ud-Dawa along with Laskkar e Tayyiba, or to designate Hafiz Muhammad Saeed, who was the founder and leader of both organization. Leaving Jammat and Muhammad Saeed undesignated left them free to recruit , arm and solicit funds for Lashkar's terrorist activities. I wrote:

“Jamaat was established by the same group that led Lashkar-e-Taiba in order to circumvent the sanctions measures that flowed from this designation. Yet, it took the Administration another six months to get around to confirming this linkage and to designating Jamaat as a successor/partner organization to Lashkar-e-taiba. … But what is still surprising is that no action has yet been taken to designate Lashkar's founder, Hafiz Muhammad Sayeed, who is also the head of Jamaat ud-Dawa….(H)olding the leaders responsible, and penalizing them, is even more important and would be a much more effective step then seeking only to close down the charities they run. Experience has shown that you can’t truly shut down these operations unless you also put their leaders and organizers out of business.’’

In fact, US soldiers worked in association with Jammat-ud-Dawa to provide relief during the late fall 2005 Kashmir Earthquake. Subsequently, the U. S. State Department did designate Jammat, on April 27, 2006, but failed to convince the UN group to follow suit. No action was taken at that time by the State Department or the Treasury Department to also designate Muhammad Saeed. He was only added to the Treasury OFAC designation list on May 27, 2008.

The basis for any listing by the UN Al Qaeda and Taliban Sanctions Committee must be founded on links between the designated entity and Al Qaeda or the Taliban. This prerequisite was established in the Security Council’s Chapter VII resolution 1390 (2002) that empowered the Al Qaeda and Taliban Committee to make such designations. The Security Council resolutions also require that all countries act immediately to freeze the assets and deny all economic resources to those so designated. All countries are also required to ban them, with few exceptions, from entering their territory, and to assure they do not have access to weapons and explosives.

Lashkar-e-Taiba was founded in 1989 in the Kunar province of Afghanistan as the military wing of Markaz-ud-Dawa-wal-Irshad (MDI), an Islamic fundamentalist organisation of the Ahle-Hadith sect in Pakistan. The MDI was based in Muridke near Lahore, Pakistan and was headed by Hafiz Muhammad Sayeed, who also became the Amir of the LeT. Its first presence in Jammu and Kashmir (J&K) was recorded in 1993 when 12 Pakistani and Afghan mercenaries infiltrated across the Line of Control (LoC) in tandem with the Islami Inquilabi Mahaz, a terrorist outfit then active in the Poonch district of J&K. Lashkar has established cooperative ties with religious militant groups throughout the middle east, southeast asia and in areas of the former soviet union. It is believed to have also been active in supporting the insurgency in Chechnya. The organization was designated as a terrorist group by the US Treasury Department in December 2001.. However, Pakistan, then a member of the UN Al Qaeda and Taliban Sanctions Committee was able to forestall a UN decision to also designate the group. Lashkar was finally added to the UN’s consolidated al Qaeda designation list on May 2, 2005, after Pakistan’s tenure on the Al Qaeda Committee had ended.

The Al Qaeda and Taliban Sanctions Committee has also now acted to insure that offshoots of other designated Pakistani terrorist organizations, such as Al Rashid Trust and Al-Akhtar trust have also been designated.

NEFA Foundation: Dr. Ayman al-Zawahiri and "The Lions of Al-Azhar"

By Evan Kohlmann

The NEFA Foundation has obtained a new video interview of Al-Qaida Deputy Commander Dr. Ayman al-Zawahiri produced by Al-Qaida's As-Sahaab Media Foundation and titled "The Lions of Al-Azhar." During the interview, al-Zawahiri called upon fellow Egyptians to observe a general strike in honor of besieged Palestinian Muslims in the Gaza Strip: "Our people and brothers in Egypt want the embargo on Gaza to be lifted, and I tell them that the lifting of the embargo is in your hands...And know that your remaining in your houses until the siege is lifted is a direct strike against Israel and a step towards the liberation of al-Aqsa. And I call on my brothers in the Islamic and Jihadi sites on the Internet to adopt this call and expand on it." Dr. al-Zawahiri was pointedly asked by the As-Sahaab interviewer about "a misconception which the media often repeats... the misconception that al-Qaida is an American creation which America financed and trained. What's your comment on that?" He responded simply, "My comment is the American Congress's official recognition of the falseness of the misconception in its report on the events of September 11th." When asked about the significance of the U.S. presidential elections, al-Zawahiri explained, "These elections confirm the extent of the American peoples' animosity to Islam and Muslims. Both candidates are competing to curry favor with Israel, and one of them believes that America must stay in Iraq until it eliminates all resistance there to the American Crusader project, while the other believes that they must pull out of Iraq in collusion with Iran in order to free themselves up to strike Afghanistan and eliminate all opposition there to the Western Crusader project. Thus, we are looking at a nation hostile to Islam. This is a fact from which we mustn't flee, lest we lose our way." In his concluding remarks, Dr. al-Zawahiri also appeared to offer some comment on the mysterious attacks and blackouts which have recently plagued Al-Qaida's principle Internet websites and forums-offering "a special greeting and message to the unknown soldiers on the frontlines of Jihadi media, whom I tell... now, after you have established your feet in the field of invitation and communication - in spite of the enemies of Islam - you must strive to raise the quality of your work, so that it appears in the best form and look its best. So you must develop further and raise the level of communication."

An English translation of the As-Sahaab interview with Dr. al-Zawahiri can be downloaded from the NEFA Foundation website.

A high number of Moroccans involved in terrorism cases

By Olivier Guitta

When one thinks of the nationality of Islamist terrorists, Pakistanis and Saudis are usually the ones that come to mind. But a moderate Muslim country is unfortunately slowly, against its will, providing a very concerning and large number of terrorists. This country is Morocco.

I wrote an article for the Middle East Times on that topic.
You can read it in full here.

Here is an excerpt:
Until recently Morocco was more likely to be associated with tourism, rather than terrorism. That trend however is slowly changing.

That change began on May 16, 2003 when Morocco suffered its first experience at the hands of Islamist terrorism. That day, Casablanca was hit with four simultaneous terror attacks that left 45 people dead and hundreds injured. Al-Qaida style attacks were perpetrated by Moroccan citizens belonging to the GICM (Moroccan Islamic Combatant Group, known by its French acronym), a group affiliated with Osama bin Laden's organization.

Needless to say that the kingdom was stunned that its sons had turned violently against it. Since then numerous - over 30 - local Islamist cells have been dismantled by Moroccan security forces that have tackled the problem head-on. Most of the cells have been linked to terrorist networks specializing in recruitment of volunteers for al-Qaida in Iraq, some of whom cooperate with individuals based in France and Belgium. Also the Mezwak mosque in Tetouan, where over a dozen young men were recruited to commit suicide attacks against coalition forces in Iraq, has become quite infamous. The Saudi-owned daily Asharq al-Awsat called it " the highway for suicide bombers to Iraq." Unsurprisingly, among foreigners, Moroccans are second in the number of jihadists in Iraq right after the Saudi contingent.

But that is not all: Moroccans living abroad are more and more showing up in Islamist terror groups. In fact Moroccans have been involved in terror operations from Saudi Arabia to Afghanistan, from Iraq to Spain, from Holland to Belgium.

The first major terror operations outside of Morocco where Moroccans were involved was the Madrid Mar. 11, 2004 attacks that killed 191. Interestingly, some of the alleged perpetrators of these attacks were attending the Tetouan mosque. On Dec. 5, a Moroccan court sentenced Hisham Ahmidan to 10 years in prison for his role in the Madrid attacks.

Then in November 2004, Mohammed Bouyeri, a Dutch-Moroccan gruesomely murdered Theo van Gogh in Amsterdam.

In Feb. 2008 one of the largest Islamist networks in Morocco was dismantled. Called after its leader the Belliraj network had planned to hit multiple targets inside the kingdom; 35 people were arrested then, most of them had connections to Belgium. Unsurprisingly, on Nov. 27 Belgium arrested another 11 people linked to the Belliraj network on an international arrest warrant issued by Morocco. Six of them are Moroccans, one of them had a rocket launcher in his home.

Indonesia Update

By Kenneth Conboy

During a 10 December swearing-in ceremony for two new provincial police chiefs, the head of the Indonesian National Police, General Bambang Hendarso Danuri, instructed all officers around the country to remain vigilant against Mumbai-style terrorist attacks. He offered no indication that the authorities anticipate any impending terrorist acts, in the Mumbai mold or otherwise.

In fact, the news on terrorism in Indonesia has been somewhat encouraging as of late. First, there was surprisingly limited public reaction to the execution of the three Bali bombers on 8 November apart from some fiery burial ceremonies in their respective home towns.

Second, the Indonesian populace responded with a collective yawn when al-Qaeda’s deputy commander, Ayman al-Zawahiri, praised the executed Bali bombers in an audio tape released on 1 December. He claimed that the three bombers “knew the price and paid it gladly with no struggling.” (Indonesians probably took issue with this last claim: while the three bombers certainly showed much bravado during their trial and sentencing, their efforts to exploit every possible legal loophole to prolong their date with destiny seemed to put the lie to their gladly paying the price with no struggling.)

Third, moderate clerics in Lumajang, East Java, issued public demands on 3 December that militant cleric Abu Bakar Ba’asyir, until recently the head of the Indonesian Mujahidin Council, not be allowed to head Idul Adha celebrations in their district this past weekend. Although Ba’asyir ultimately did go to Lumajang, his hard-line sermon attracted relatively little attention.

NEFA Foundation: Dr. Ayman al-Zawahiri and "The Death of Our Heroes and Betrayal of Our Rulers"

By Evan Kohlmann

The NEFA Foundation has obtained and translated a new Arabic-language audio recording from Al-Qaida Deputy Commander Dr. Ayman al-Zawahiri released on December 1. During the recording, titled "The Death of Our Heroes and Betrayal of Our Rulers", al-Zawahiri hailed the recently-executed culprits behind the 2002 nightclub bombings on the island of Bali—who "did not change, did not substitute, and did not compromise an inch in their ideology and in their determination to perform jihad on behalf of Allah and to drive the enemies of Islam away from the lands of Islam. They knew the price, and they paid it willingly and did not spare anything in paying it." Zawahiri also strongly criticized conferences aimed at interreligious dialogue organized by the government of Saudi Arabia: "[The Saudis] are prepared to conduct discussions with anyone who the U.S. orders them to, but they are not prepared to approach their own people and the Muslims and have a discussion with them-like they discuss with the Jews, the Christians, and the servants of trees and stones." Interestingly, there is no apparent mention in the Zawahiri audio recording of the recent terrorist attacks in the city of Mumbai, India.

A translation of Dr. al-Zawahiri's audio recording can be downloaded from the NEFA Foundation website.

Ugly Face of Terror: Pictures of Mumbai Attackers Released!

By Animesh Roul

Almost two weeks after, the Mumbai Police (Crime Branch) have released the pictures of the terrorists involved in the multiple Mumbai attacks (Nov. 26-29). The Mumbai police on Tuesday released 8 out of the 10 pictures of the terrorists involved in the terror attacks. Except Mohammed Ajmal Amir Kasab's picture, (Now we all know the babyface terrorist) one terrorist picture is not available (perhaps mutilated and beyond recognition). Most of the pictures are derived from the Identity cards they possessed and after ascertaining their names and places from the lone survivor, Mohammed Ajmal Kasab, Police released those pictures on Dec 09. They were all from Pakistan and all between 20-28 years of age.

Click here to view pictures.

1.Chhatrapati Shivjai Terminus/ Cama Hospital: Ismail Khan (Dera Ismail Khan) and Mohammed Ajmal Amir Kasab (Okara).

2.Taj Mahal Hotel: Hafeez Arshad (Multan), Abu Ali (Okara), Shoaib (Narowal Sialkot) and Abu Umer (Faisalabad).

3.Nariman House: Abu Umar (Faisalabad) and Babar Imran ( Multan)

4.Trident Oberoi Hotel: Abdul Rehman (Multan) and Fahadullah(Okara)

Guantanamo’s Jihad: The Show Begins…

By Walid Phares

Al Qaeda’s great moment for propaganda has arrived, just as I predicted it would when I wrote about this in June. The Guantanamo trials will provide leading figures in the 9/11 massacre their “moment” to deliver a blow to America’s psyche, image and legal system.

As predicted, almost to the letter in my analysis in June, the men charged with plotting the September 11 attacks have declared their readiness to make confessions. According to Associated Press the military judge assigned to their war crimes trial at Guantanamo Bay read aloud a letter in which the five co-defendants said they request an immediate hearing session “to announce our confessions.” The AP report added that Khalid Sheikh Mohammed (aka KSM) has already told interrogators he was the mastermind of the attacks. “Now he’s telling the judge that he and the others want to make confessions at the trial.” The judge at the pre-trial hearing, Army Col. Stephen Henley, is asking each defendant if they are prepared to enter a plea. Three have agreed to do so.

So, is there an Al Qaeda plan being put into motion on the inside? Most likely there is as our knowledge of Al Qaeda training instructions has shown. -Both the government and media of the United States are ill-prepared for this type of jihadi propaganda warfare. Seven years after the beginning of the so-called “War on Terror,” the enemy’s ideology, strategies and methods still haven’t been officially identified. It is like using a Word War I mind set to fight World War II terror strategies.

Here is what the jihadists, both on the inside and the outside of the Guantanamo detention center are planning for:

The Role of Consensus in the Contemporary Struggle for Islam

By Daveed Gartenstein-Ross

I have a new article in the Review of Faith and International Affairs about the Amman Message, an effort spearheaded by the Royal Aal al-Bayt Institute for Islamic Thought, a nominally non-governmental institute that receives significant backing from Jordan's monarchy. The Amman Message seeks to address some of the most controversial topics within Islam today (including terrorism, women's rights, and freedom of religion), and tries to do so by forging a scholarly consensus among disparate Muslim jurisprudential schools. My article focuses on a consensus statement on takfir that was produced in 2005, and a document that is currently being developed about jihad and the Islamic law of war.

An excerpt:

The benefits of the two documents analyzed above are manifest. The takfir document, endorsed by a broad array of scholars with towering reputations, advances a number of relevant arguments designed to diminish the sectarian fighting that has gripped places like Iraq, and to undermine extremists’ claim that they have the power to declare takfir on other Muslims. The jihad document, which may ultimately garner a similarly impressive array of signatures, condemns many of the tactics employed by terrorist organizations, as well as the idea that Muslims are inherently at war with the non-Muslim world.

The documents’ shortcomings are also clear if one reads them critically. One failure is that they do not clarify some of the most controversial issues—for example, the jihad document’s lack of discussion about Iraq and Israel. Another shortcoming is that the documents frequently employ vague language that can give rise to many questions. This can be seen in the takfir document’s failure to specify what terms such as “real Tasawwuf” and “necessarily self-evident tenet of religion” mean, or in the jihad document’s silence about the claim there is no such thing as an Israeli civilian. These failures are likely inherent to the process of consensus-building that the Aal al-Bayt Institute has chosen. More ambitious statements, though they would surely be more welcome to Western ears, might not garner the kind consensus that the Amman Message seeks. What the documents might have accomplished, however, should not detract from the fact that they do make a contribution.

Surely, the Aal al-Bayt Institute has had its misfires in addition to its successes. Its penchant for attaching unprecedented historical significance to virtually all of its output can be off-putting. The very first sentence of True Islam’s introduction, penned by Prince bin Muhammad, reads: “Over the course of the two years 2005-2006 CE, 1426-1427 AH, there occurred a series of events of great historical importance to the worldwide Islamic nation (Ummah), events without parallel for fourteen centuries, ever since the time of Imam Ali bin Abi Talib." ....

These misfires aside, Aal al-Bayt has already succeeded in releasing one important document, and the jihad document will also be significant upon its release. Moreover, Aal al-Bayt has created an important mechanism for bringing together representatives of divergent Islamic theological schools.

To read the full article, click here.

Transcript of December 4 Panel on Mumbai Attacks

By Andrew Cochran

The transcript of our panel on the Mumbai attacks, held December 4 in Washington, is available here as an Acrobat document. The panel consisted of Contributing Experts Dr. Walid Phares and Farhana Ali, and Dr. David Kilcullen, and I served as the moderator. Some highlights from each panelist are below. I also want to invite your attention to the archive of posts here on the activities of Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) in the U.S., some of which were discussed by the panel. Contact me if you have questions for the panelists or comments. I especially want to thank Assistant Newslink Editor Brett Wallace for his usual stellar job in compiling the transcript.

Walid Phares: "(W)hat we are dealing with here is a decision made at the level of regional jihadists. It has the flavor, has the mark of the whole operation chronologically speaking, it comes at the heal of previous incidents on one hand but if you project the operation it may lead you on the other hand to the logic that a decision had been made on a much higher level. It is probably all the way up to a war room between Al Qaeda and the Taliban, with the LeT being “subcontracted” for the operation and information supply by infiltration within the Pakistani security apparatus. If you look at the scheme, the structure, you will see the interests of the Taliban, Al Qaeda, the execution by LeT and security provided by an intelligence apparatus in Pakistan."

Farhana Ali: "A few days after the attacks, I received an email from a source in Pakistan who meets with... the leader of Jamaat-ud-Dawa, the political wing for LeT, and who has family that are hard-core loyalists to Laskhar. He sent me an email on November 30th in which he wrote, 'According to two senior sources within jihadi outfits and as many in the intelligence agencies, the recent terror attacks in different parts of Mumbai…were masterminded by Pakistani intelligence agency ISI... The Lashkar leaders are not accepting the responsibility at official level but they are taking pride is claiming it among their trusted people.'... I think it is very clear that if you look at the LeT’s strategy it is to weaken India and to help establish the caliphate which is part of their ideological program... My sources say at least 23 (attackers)."

David Kilcullen: "This was not some Islamic charity or some group working alone from the Deccan Mujahedeen: this has all the hallmarks of a Special Forces raid, closer to a commando or SBS raiding activity than a traditional Al Qaeda style terrorist attack. Al Qaeda has never attacked a land target from the sea, though they have attacked maritime targets from the sea, such as the Cole, the Limburg and attacks on Saudi oil installations. There has never been anything close to this level of sophistication of a seaborne attack: this was a high professional bar. We can deduce they had some professional help though I think it is much too early to state who that support came from. It has been set up to look like a Pakistani government operation. We should be careful until we know more. As a side bar, European CT forces captured an Al Qaeda CD that highlighted Al Qaeda urban warfare tactics, and these matched those used in Mumbai to the letter. The sea part was new but the land parts followed Al Qaeda tactics pretty closely."

Andrew Cochran: "One story that caught my eye was a story about SIM cards and cell phones, because there have been increasing concern about terrorists using stored value cards and SIM cards in cell phones... SOCOM (NOTE: The Pentagon’s Special Operations Command) has met with a number of representatives of financial institutions, telecom companies and builders of those systems to learn more about mobile banking techniques... So the Mumbai attack presents the possibility - we won’t know until the investigation is completed - that this was the first large-scale terrorist attack involving stored value card and mobile banking technologies...

Mexico: Growing Terror and Close to Collapse

By Douglas Farah

One of the most amazing things to me in the recent electoral process was the complete absence of serious discussion by either camp of anything relating to Latin America.

While Venezuela, Nicaragua, Bolivia and Ecuador have formed a new anti-U.S. and pro-Iranian axis, perhaps the most dangerous developments are taking place directly on our southern border. It is to the point where the Mexican government, despite commendable efforts by the Calderon administration, is barely hanging on.

I say this with deep sadness. I lived through the similar Colombian experience where the narco-violence shattered the country, almost took over the state, and claimed the lives of many of my friends, including journalists I worked with. That is part of the reason I cannot understand the lack of attention to the crisis.

We are looking at the creation of a series of mini narco-states along our border, and from our border heading south through Central America. Mexico's own southern border with Guatemala is now awash in cartel violence, and much of Guatemala is no longer under state control. El Salvador is a money laundering sanctuary, as is Panama, and Nicaragua, along with Venezuela, have become black holes where an increasing amount of cocaine transits.

This is a clear and present danger not only to the United States, which will (and already has) suffer from the spillover of violence and border security-but to the Mexican state as well.

The drug war there is taking an enormous toll. Even hospitals are no longer safe from the violence.

Senior police and government officials are assassinated with such frequency their deaths seldom make the news here at all. Some are killed because they are trying to do the right thing, some because they are on the losing side of an intra-cartel battle, but it is shredding the authority of the state.

Illegal immigration of non-Latin Americans, including Iranians, Chinese and Turks, is on the rise. Why does this matter? Because the cartels in their many different iterations and factions, thrive on instability, and their ability to move anything (drugs, people, weapons) across our border. Iranians and Turks arriving this way are not here to see the Empire State Building or the Grand Canyon. My full blog is here.

NEFA Foundation: Target: America: The Goose Creek, South Carolina Traffic Stop

By Madeleine Gruen

The NEFA Foundation has released the 17th installment in the “Target: America” series, which examines the discovery of explosive materials in the trunk of a car in Goose Creek, South Carolina in the course of a routine car stop that took place in August 2007.

The subjects, both Egyptian nationals who studied engineering at the University of South Florida , were arrested for transporting explosives across state lines without a license. Ultimately, one, Ahmed Abdellatif Sherif Mohamed, pled guilty to support of terrorism after investigators learned that he had created an instructional video, which he had posted to YouTube, showing how a remote-control toy could be used as a detonation device. Both subjects had demonstrated an ongoing interest in improvised explosive devices (IEDs), particularly in their use against U.S. troops in the Middle East . Investigators found evidence of their online visits to Hamas websites and websites that provided instructions for building IEDs. For several months prior to their arrest, Mohamed, who is scheduled for sentencing on December 18, 2008, was gathering materials necessary to build an IED. Through letters and poems, Mohamed has shown his hatred for the United States and his support for the leaders of violent jihad.

Not only does this case study provide an excellent example of vigilant police work, it also serves as a model for counter-terrorism analysts who seek to identify how a domestic terror cell might form, and the possible indicators of violent intentions. Please click here to read the full report.

NEFA Foundation: Mujahideen Army Condemns “Hideous Slander” from AQI’s Abu Hamza al-Muhajir

By Evan Kohlmann

The NEFA Foundation has obtained and translated a new communiqué from a prominent Sunni insurgent group in Iraq known as the Mujahideen Army. The statement, issued in response to a controversial recent audio address from Al-Qaida in Iraq leader Abu Hamza al-Muhajir, angrily condemned Abu Hamza for spreading “hideous slander”, “fabrications”, and “falsifications” about the Mujahideen Army abandoning the cause of jihad. The Mujahideen Army insisted that they have neither joined in the Awakening movements, nor in “the methodology of fanaticism, of which [Al-Qaida is] the central pillar.” The group added, “in order to prevent our enemies from gloating over us… [and] drag[ging] our conflicts [with Al-Qaida] into the spotlight… that is the only reason why we kept silent about their actions and the crimes that their followers have committed… We didn’t kill a single one of them, although we could have if we had wanted to.” Countering with their own allegations of insurgent fratricide by Al-Qaida, the Mujahideen Army openly mocked the intelligence of Abu Hamza al-Muhajir, who “seems to believe that by randomly throwing out accusations against others, that will somehow make his fabrications come true and his imaginary illusions become real… to the extent that [he is] no longer acting out of concern for jihad, the Islamic nation, and our religion.”

A translation of the statement can be downloaded from the NEFA Foundation website.

Defense Department Further Institutionalizes "Threat Finance Cell" Concept

By Andrew Cochran

Michael Yon has posted the new directive, sigend three days ago by Deputy Defense Secretary England, which provides the clearest statement yet of DoD policy and command responsibilities for "counterthreat finance" operations. The directive permanently institutionalizes the "threat finance cell" concept which has been the subject of joint operations between the Treasury and Defense Departments for over three years, and that I have written about for over a year here (see previous posts and my remarks on the subject to a money laundering enforcement conference on October 21). Never before has U.S. defense policy officially recognized the need to "follow the money" and the benefits of working in tandem with the Treasury Department and other relevant civilian agencies.

As you might imagine, the Defense Department cannot talk openly about the successes of the Iraq TFC, but Gen. Petraeus is taking the concept with him to Afghanistan, along with at least one of the TFC experts in the Pentagon. Senior Treasury Department officials told me in October "it's the best thing we have going." Hopefully the Congress will also recognize the benefit by providing specific and sufficient funding for the hiring, training, and deployment of experts in all departments involved.

After Mumbai: Deciphering the Horizons

By Walid Phares

As the crisis between India and Pakistan is drawing the attention of the international community and the diplomatic efforts of the United States, public opinion has shown an increased interest in the Jihadi agenda in India. In this regard the Counter Terrorism community is focusing on analyzing the long term strategic agenda of the Terror forces involved in the attack. Today's panel discussion in Congress at the invitation of the Counter Terrorism Foundation opened several perspectives in projecting the next stage of the conflict. The minutes of this briefing will be useful to the growing debate about Post Mumbai. Following is a short piece published initially by Fox News.com today, raising some of the issues I discussed at the panel in Congress this morning.

NBC News: "Pakistani militants deny role in Mumbai terror attacks"

By Evan Kohlmann

NBC News: Pakistani militants deny role in Mumbai terror attacks

The sole surviving terrorist of the Mumbai attacks allegedly spent 18 months training at camps run by Lashkar-e-Taiba (LET), a banned Pakistani militant organization with a long history of high-profile attacks in India and Indian-controlled Kashmir. And, as NBC News has reported, Indian authorities also have found the names of several high-ranking LET members in the satellite phone used by one of the Mumbai perpetrators.

So what is Lashkar-e-Taiba, and was the group truly behind the horrific attacks in Mumbai’s hotels, train station and restaurants? Lashkar’s political wing offered reporters in Pakistan a rare tour of their sprawling, 200-acre headquarters today, and allowed me to interview one of their top officials yesterday. In a phone interview, the LET’s Abdullah Muntazir repeatedly denied any involvement in the attacks. “No, not at all,” said Muntazir, a chief spokesman of LET’s accused political wing, Jamat-ud-Dawa.

“The violence against the general public carried out by any individual, group, or any government--whether it is committed in Mumbai, or in Kashmir, Afghanistan, or in Iraq--that cannot be justified at any cost. And Islam does not allow its followers to kill innocent people, to target public places,” Muntazir said. “Blowing up [bombs] in public places… from my point of view, that we cannot endorse and we have no relation to such kind of things.”

During the press tour today at the group’s headquarters outside Lahore, Muntazir continued with his denials. “We are a charity organization and these premises are just an educational and medical complex,” he said. “We condemn India for putting [our leader’s] name on the list of terrorists… India is blaming us because its their habit and the moment the attacks happened in Mumbai, they started blaming us without any proof or evidence,” Muntazir told reporters today.

Controversial history
The denials aside, the LET has a long history of supporting violence and terrorist acts. At their annual “Mujahideen Conference,” held in Pakistan in November 1999, for example, former LET chief Hafiz Mohammed Saeed issued a threat to the Prime Minister of India. He said that if “he didn’t withdraw from Kashmir the Mujahideen would invade his office in New Delhi,” Saeed said. “The Jihad is not about Kashmir only. It encompasses all of India… We will not rest until the whole India is dissolved into Pakistan.”

And in October 2000, when asked about the hijacking of a Saudi commercial airliner and the bombing of the U.S.S. Cole in Yemen, Saeed responded, “Mujahideen Lashkar-e-Taiba does not favor to undertake these operations, as [such] activities are mostly advantageous to America. The real jihad, in fact, is to target the Jews… and to kill them in their own homes.”

[Click for more on the MSNBC.com website]

A Nuclear Venezuela?

By Douglas Farah

Almost unnoticed in the chaos created by recent terrorist events is the nuclear agreement signed between Russia and Venezuela signed when Russian president Medvedev visited Caracas last week. His visit coincided with the arrival of Russian naval ships for joint operations with the Venezuelan navy.

The ships, in their first post-Cold War venture into Latin America, included the Peter the Great, the flagship missile cruiser of the Russian navy, and several other vessels.

Under the accord, Russia would help Venezuela build a nuclear energy plant. Joint gas projects were also approved. Military co-operation is also high on the agenda of Mr Medvedev's talks with Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez.

None of this would be alarming if Chavez were not a known sponsor of violent and radical movements across the hemisphere, from the FARC in Colombia to the worst elements (and a small minority of the overall parties) of the Sandinistas in Nicaragua and the FMLN in El Salvador.

His closest allies, such as Iran and North Korea, are rogue nations who have repeatedly lied and failed to abide by international nuclear agreements.

Having already spent $4.4 billion on Russian weapons in the past three years, and despite a sharp downturn in oil revenues, Chavez wants to go nuclear.

The reason he gives is electrical production as the prime peacetime use of the energy. But this raises several important questions. My full blog is here.

Mumbai Style Attack in the US: A Skeptical Analysis

By Aaron Mannes

The Mumbai massacre may not be a “new” terror tactic. The mass firearms attack riveted the world in 1972 when the Japanese Red Army gunned down 27 people at Ben Gurion Airport. Since then the annals of terrorism have included innumerable other examples, most notably al-Gamaa Islamiya’s 1997 Luxor Massacre in which 59 tourists were murdered.

Still, the Mumbai attack stands out in its scale and has led many analysts to wonder if the mass firearms and bomb attack will be tactics of choice for the next 9/11. A useful way to examine this proposition is to invert the question, and ask, “Why hasn’t this already happened in the United States?”

Read the full post here.

New Seventh Circuit Boim Decision Puts All On Notice - Liability Will Attach to Those that Contribute Funds to Foreign Terrorist Organizations

By Victor Comras

Last December I used this space to express concern that the 2-1 decision handed down by a Seventh Circuit Court of Appeals three-judge panel in the Boim case represented a serious setback to victims of terrorism seeking to hold accountable those who provide material support to the terrorists that harm them. This decision has now been substantially altered, on appeal, by a second Seventh Circuit panel ruling.

The earlier decision had erected significant and complex impediments to establishing liability in victims-of- terrorism cases (see my previous blog). It held, inter alia, that victim-of-terrorism plaintiffs had to establish a clear causal link between the funding of the terrorists and the terrorist act itself. This new decision does away with that barrier and makes it clear that contributions knowingly made to organizations that engage in terrorist activities may be sufficient to establish liability in such cases.

The latest Seventh Circuit Opinion circumvents the complexities of the earlier decision by abandoning the earlier panel’s reliance on the legal doctrine of “aiding and abetting,” as a basis for “secondary” liability under Section 2333 of the Anti-Terrorism Act of 1996. Rather, the Court now follows a more direct line of reasoning: (1) Section 2331 defines “international terrorism” as including “activities that . . . involve violent acts or acts dangerous to human life that are a violation of the criminal laws of the United States,” that “appear to be intended . . . to intimidate or coerce a civilian population” or “affect the conduct of a government by . . . assassination,” and that “transcend national boundaries in terms of the means by which they are accomplished” or “the persons they appear intended to intimidate or coerce.” and (2) knowingly donating to a terrorist group that targets Americans outside the United States falls within the terms of this definition.

“Giving money to Hamas,” the court reasons, “like giving a loaded gun to a child (which also is not a violent act), is an ‘act dangerous to human life.’ And it violates a federal criminal statute enacted in 1994 and thus before the murder of David Boim—18 U.S.C. § 2339A(a), which provides that “whoever provides material support or resources . . ., knowing or intending that they are to be used in preparation for, or in carrying out, a violation of [18 U.S.C. § 2332],” shall be guilty of a federal crime.”

The court also reasons that this outcome, reaching to those that fund terrorist organizations, was clearly intended by Congress and that it makes sense as good counterterrorism policy. “Damages are a less effective remedy against terrorists and their organizations than against their financial angels. Terrorist organizations have been sued under section 2333 …but to collect a damages judgment against such an organization, let alone a judgment against the terrorists themselves (if they can even be identified and thus sued), is … well-nigh impossible. These are foreign organizations and individuals, operating abroad and often covertly, and they are often impecunious as well. So difficult is it to obtain monetary relief against covert foreign organizations like these that Congress has taken to passing legislation authorizing the payment of judgments against them from U.S. Treasury funds….But that can have no deterrent or incapacitative effect, whereas suits against financiers of terrorism can cut the terrorists’ lifeline.”

With these principles, the rest of the case for liability is straightforward:

“We know that Hamas kills Israeli Jews; and Boim was an Israeli citizen, Jewish, living in Israel, and therefore a natural target for Hamas. But we must consider the knowledge that the donor to a terrorist organization must be shown to possess in order to be liable under section 2333 and the Proof required to link the donor’s act to the injury sustained by the victim….A knowing donor to Hamas—that is, a donor who knew the aims and activities of the organization—would know that Hamas was gunning for Israelis …., that Americans are frequent visitors to and sojourners in Israel, that many U.S. citizens live in Israel…, and that donations to Hamas, by augmenting Hamas’s resources, would enable Hamas to kill or wound, or try to kill, or conspire to kill more people in Israel. And given such foreseeable consequences, such donations would “appear to be intended . . . to intimidate or coerce a civilian population” or to “affect the conduct of a government by . . . assassination,” as required by section 2331(1) in order to distinguish terrorist acts from other violent crimes, though it is not a state-of-mind requirement; it is a matter of external appearance rather than subjective intent, which is internal to the intender.”

In answer to the argument that it cannot be shown that the Defendents actually intended to cause harm as their contributions were made with societal or humanitarian objectives in mind the court responded

“But if you give money to an organization that you know to be engaged in terrorism, the fact that you earmark it for the organization’s nonterrorist activities does not get you off the liability hook….The reasons are twofold. The first is the fungibility of money. If Hamas budgets $2 million for terrorism and $2 million for social services and receives a donation of $100,000 for those services, there is nothing to prevent its using that money for them while at the same time taking $100,000 out of its social services “account” and depositing it in its terrorism ‘account’….Second, Hamas’s social welfare activities reinforce its terrorist activities both directly by providing economic assistance to the families of killed, wounded, and captured Hamas fighters and making it more costly for them to defect (they would lose the material benefits that Hamas provides them), and indirectly by enhancing Hamas’s popularity among the Palestinian population and providing funds for indoctrinating schoolchildren."

Not intending to be misunderstood when it comes to legitimate humanitarian assistance, the court clarified that there were obviously certain exceptions concerning charitable donations, even if they were to end up in the hands of Hamas.

“ One is the easy case of a donation to an Islamic charity by an individual who does not know (and is not reckless, in the sense of strongly suspecting the truth but not caring about it) that the charity gives money to Hamas or some other terrorist organization.

The other case is that of medical (or other innocent) assistance by nongovernmental organizations such as the Red Cross and Doctors Without Borders that provide such assistance without regard to the circumstances giving rise to the need for it.”

It has been over 12 years since the Boim murder by Hamas terrorists, yet this case is still weaving its way through the courts. Perhaps its greatest importance now will be in setting straight the guidelines for future victims of terrorism litigation. There likely will be more Boim-type cases moving through the courts for some time to come and seeking to hold those that indoctrinate, recruit, arm, sustain, supply and finance terrorists accountable.

A Final Note: The court recognized that it could not avoid the fact that the District Court findings concerning HolyLand Foundation were based, in large measure, on an erroneous determination of collateral estoppel re an earlier District Court ruling upholding an administrative determination against Holyland, and that they, therefore were still entitled to “their day in court” in this case. With respect to Defendant Muhammed Saleh the district court judgment of liability was reversed as he was in an Israel prison at the time of the Boim murder and his alleged collection of funds for Hamas post-dated the Boim murder. All the other defendants remain liable for the $156 million judgment against them.

Congressional Commission Warns of Bio and Nuclear Terrorism threats in 5 years.

By Michael B. Kraft

Greater government efforts and adequate follow-up budgets are needed to head off the threat of major biological terrorist attacks in the United State or overseas within the next five years, leaders of a congressionally mandated Commission on Weapons of Mass Destruction warned today.

Excerpts of the “World at Risk” report of the Commission on the Prevention of Weapons of Mass Destruction Proliferation and Terrorism” had been selectively released to some media earlier this week but Commission members expanded on it today during a news conference and a conference call. They also briefed Vice President-elect Senator Joseph Biden and Arizona Governor Janet Napolitano, President-elect Obama’s nominee for Secretary of Homeland Security.

Senator Biden, as he met with the Commissioners told reporters: “we are not doing all we can to prevent the world’s most lethal weapons from winding up in the hands of terrorists.”

The Commission members said the risk of biological or nuclear attacks is growing because Al Qaeda and other terrorists have shown continued interest in using such weapons of mass destruction and could try to hire rogue scientists. Former Senator Bob Graham (D-Texas), chairman of the commission told a news conference Wednesday that Al Qaeda is the most likely group to use these weapons of mass destruction because of its past efforts in this area and “it has reorganized itself into a more nimble and global organization.”

The bi-partisan Commission report said that “it is more likely than not that a weapon of mass destruction will be used in a terrorist attack somewhere in the world by the end of 2013.” The Commission also said that it “believes that terrorists are more likely to obtain and use a biological weapon than a nuclear weapon.

In a conference call with bloggers after the news conference report was released, former Senator Jim Talent (R-Missouri), the Commission’s vice chairman, said that although there were a number of programs already underway to counter threats of bioterrorism, there has to be follow up and budget support. The report said that, for example, in the medical area alone, the Bush Administration had submitted a FY 2009 budget request of $969 to fund research and development of medical countermeasures, new approaches to deal with countermeasures, and early detection equipment of bioagents. The report urged the new Congress to act quickly on the funding requests.

Boim Judgment Upheld: Charity Donations to Terrorist Groups Illegal

By Matthew Levitt

A federal appeals court in Chicago today upheld a $156 million judgment against several Palestinian charities accused of funding Hamas. A full history of the Boim case, covered extensively on this blog, is available here.

In an earlier appeal the original judgment against the defendants was overruled based on the Seventh Circuit’s disturbing finding -- now reversed -- that “plaintiffs must be able to produce some evidence permitting a jury to find that the activities of HLF, Salah, and AMS contributed to the fatal attack on David Boim and were therefore a cause in fact of his death.”

This latest opinion (87-page Acrobat file) found that “Anyone who knowingly contributes to the nonviolent wing of an organization that he knows to engage in terrorism is knowingly contributing to the organization’s terrorist activities.”

In the case of Hamas, the court ruled, “A knowing donor to Hamas—that is, a donor who knew the aims and activities of the organization—would know that Hamas was gunning for Israelis.”

Dr. David Kilcullen Added to Tomorrow's Mumbai Panel

By Andrew Cochran

We are very pleased that Dr. David Kilcullen will join Dr. Walid Phares and Farhana Ali as panelists at tomorrow's event to discuss the Mumbai attacks. To quote from the biography released last week by CNAS:

"Dr. David Kilcullen has joined CNAS as a senior fellow. Kilcullen was a non-resident senior fellow with CNAS for more than a year and collaborated with CNAS on Iraq and Afghanistan reports, as well as violent extremism and grand strategy Solarium projects in 2007 and 2008.

Kilcullen's position as the Special Advisor for Counterinsurgency to the Secretary of State, Condoleezza Rice, will conclude in December 2008, at which time he will also become a partner at the Crumpton Group, a Washington, D.C.-based strategic advisory firm.

Prior to joining CNAS, Kilcullen was senior counterinsurgency advisor to General David Petraeus, then Commanding General of United States and international forces in Iraq. He was part of the small team that designed the “surge,” and subsequently spent several months in the field directing counterinsurgency programs and providing hands-on advice to Iraqi and coalition military, diplomatic, aid and intelligence agencies. In 2005-2006 he was chief counterterrorism strategist at the U.S. State Department, working in the Middle East, South Asia, Europe, Africa and Southeast Asia, including operational activities in Afghanistan, Iraq and Pakistan’s Federally Administered Tribal Agencies. He designed and implemented the Regional Strategic Initiative, the policy that drives U.S. counterterrorism diplomacy worldwide.

He previously served in Australia’s Office of National Assessments, worked in the Pentagon where he wrote the counterterrorism strategy for the 2006 Quadrennial Defense Review, and served on the writing team for Australia’s 2004 Terrorism White Paper. He is a former Australian infantry officer with 22 years of service, including operational deployments in East Timor, Bougainville, and the Middle East. His doctoral dissertation, on insurgency in traditional societies, drew on residential fieldwork with guerrillas and terrorists in Indonesia during the 1990s. He is fluent in Indonesian and conversant in Arabic and French. He is a fellow of the Royal Geographical Society (elected in 1996) and holds several honors and decorations, including the United States Army Superior Civilian Service Medal, “for exceptionally meritorious service to the United States as Senior Counterinsurgency Advisor, Multi-National Force-Iraq, during Operation Iraqi Freedom,” the first such award to a foreign national serving in combat alongside U.S. Forces.

His forthcoming book, The Accidental Guerrilla, to be published by Oxford University Press in spring 2009, analyzes the complex interplay between local guerrillas and global terrorists in contemporary war zones from Africa to Southeast Asia."

UPDATE: See remarks by Secretary Rice during a meeting today with the Indian Minister of External Affairs.

Material Support: From Mumbai to Hamas

By Michael B. Kraft

Well-planned deadly terrorist attacks such as the one in Mumbai last week against targets scouted out in advance are not conducted on the spur of the moment at a cost of mere pennies. The large amounts of ammunition and the advance planning by the terrorists who attacked 10 targets within a short time period is a reminder that terrorist attacks often need funding and other material support for their deadly activities.

Too often, though, as seen in the recent trial of the Holy Land Foundation for providing support to Hamas, lawyers try to downplay or even attack laws designed to curb the backing provided by those supporters who may not actually pull the trigger but provide the funds, weapons or other essentials for conducting a major attack.

It may seem a long way from Mumbai where terrorists killed at least 173 persons including six Americans and 13 other foreigners, to the Dallas, Texas trial where on Nov. 24, the Holy Land Foundation and five former leaders were found guilty of channeling $12.4 million to Hamas-affiliated committees and groups since 1995. That January, an executive order made it illegal to provide material support to a dozen foreign terrorist organizations including Hamas. But although there is no known link between Mumbia and Hamas, there is a common thread—material support they receive from supporters.

President Clinton’s January, 1995 executive order designed to curb money flows to 12 groups (10 Arab and two Jewish) that threatened the use of violence against the Middle East process was followed up by more detailed legislation that Congress eventually enacted as part of the Antiterrorism and Effective Death Penalty Act of 1996. (Public Law No. 104-132, 110 Stat.)

A material support provision, 18 U.S.C. 2339B, makes it a criminal offense for American citizens or residents to knowingly provide funds or other forms of material support that the Secretary of State, in consultation with the Attorney General and Secretary of Treasury, designated as a foreign terrorist organization. The legislation covers such forms of support as funding, weapons, and training as well as the provision of financial services and has been used in dozens of cases.

Financial Setbacks for Hamas

By Matthew Levitt

Over the past few weeks, Hamas's international financial support network suffered a series of setbacks, most notably the U.S. federal court conviction of the Holy Land Foundation for Relief and Development (HLF) and five of its leaders on charges of providing material support to Hamas. Despite these convictions and the broad sanctions in place against Hamas, however, the group remains capable of raising substantial funds, through both traditional and innovative means.

On November 24, a Dallas jury convicted the HLF of all counts in a major terrorist finance case. According to the Justice Department, "HLF intentionally hid its financial support for Hamas behind the guise of charitable donations" amounting to approximately $12.4 million "provided in support to Hamas and its goal of creating an Islamic Palestinian state by eliminating the State of Israel through violent jihad."

Just two weeks before the HLF verdict on November 12, the Treasury Department designated the Union of Good (Etelaf al-Khair, also known as the Charity Coalition), a Saudi-based umbrella organization that began as a fundraising drive and developed into an institution working with more than fifty Islamic foundations worldwide, as a "specially designated global terrorist entity" (SDGT). According to the Palestinian Preventive Security in the Gaza Strip, "The Union [of Good] is considered -- with regard to material support -- one of the biggest Hamas supporters." Noting its ties to Hamas, Israel outlawed the organization in February 2002. According to Treasury, Hamas leaders created the Union of Good in 2002, stating that it "facilitates the transfer of tens of millions of dollars a year to Hamas-managed associations." The Union "acts as a broker for Hamas by facilitating financial transfers between a web of charitable organizations . . . and Hamas-controlled organizations in the West Bank and Gaza."

The SDGT designation appears to already have had an impact on Hamas financing. A few days after Treasury's decision, the British bank Lloyds TSB instructed the Birmingham-based Islamic Bank of Britain to cease dealings with Interpal, a UK-based charity previously designated as a Hamas-financing entity by the U.S. government and highlighted as a central player in the Union of Good's web of Hamas-associated charities.

Despite the recent successes in efforts to disrupt Hamas's financing, the group is still able to raise substantial funds. As the governing party in Gaza, Hamas has access to new sources of funding, including taxes and customs fees.

The full article is available here.

Reflections on Al-Qa’ida from the Management Perspective

By Frank Hyland

A number of my colleagues here on CT Blog, among others, have commented on the recent address by Al-Qa’ida’s (AQ) number two, Ayman Al-Zawahiri. Needless to say, the overall response has not been on the favorable side. It is time, past time, actually, since Zawahiri is a self-proclaimed representative of AQ and the Muslim World, to take the examination and commenting a step further and look more closely at AQ itself, in addition to the individual members who have become media darlings.

In addition to all the other memories that came flooding back to those of us who had lived through and/or worked on 9/11 and the aftermath, the seven years since have provided sufficient time to view 2001 through a wider, almost a macro lens. Commentator after commentator has reflected upon the fact that we have not been attacked again in a similar fashion, so there is no need to add to that stack. What has not been seen, though, is a look at the perpetrators - if only for the purpose of stimulating discussion.

September 11, 2001 is “book-ended” today, of course, because of the series of attacks in Mumbai, India. The attacks in India’s financial capital, however, do absolutely nothing to change the preexisting picture of AQ.

We, collectively, tend to focus on the infamous worst-case scenario. We do this for a variety of reasons: As individual citizens, we are dependent on the information that is given to us to evaluate the threat of terrorist attacks; we are not privy to classified information on a routine basis, excepting only that which has been made releasable to the public; our primary information source, the media, operates in a conflicted environment - oscillating between your right to know and the demands of the ‘bottom line” and ratings rankings. We often alternate, therefore, between a drip-by-drip supply of information from our Intelligence Community and trying to drink from the fire hose of often-suspect information from the media.

NEFA Report: "Inside As-Sahaab: The Story of Ali al-Bahlul and the Evolution of Al-Qaida’s Propaganda."

By Evan Kohlmann

The NEFA Foundation has released a new report that I have written titled “Inside As-Sahaab: The Story of Ali al-Bahlul and the Evolution of Al-Qaida’s Propaganda.” The report is based upon previously unseen evidence presented during the recent Guantanamo Bay military commissions trial of Yemeni national Ali Hamza Ahmad Suliman al-Bahlul. In November 2008, a military jury convicted al-Bahlul of conspiracy, solicitation, and providing material support to terrorism. During questioning conducted by FBI and NCIS agents, Al-Bahlul admitted that he had been “personally appointed” by Usama Bin Laden to take charge of As-Sahaab, allegedly writing the final “martyrdom” wills of 9/11 hijackers and producing one of Al-Qaida’s most enduring terrorist propaganda films, “The Destruction of the U.S.S. Cole” (otherwise known as “State of the Ummah”). The report also analyzes the significance of another exhibit submitted by prosecutors in their case against Mr. al-Bahlul - the rough-cut recorded “martyrdom” will of 9/11 hijacker Ziad Jarrah. As I described in the report, “this revealing video footage seems to suggest that the theatrical ‘martyrdom’ wills of Al-Qaida suicide operatives are much more carefully scripted and deliberately orchestrated than the As-Sahaab Media Foundation would otherwise wish to acknowledge.”

The report can be downloaded from the NEFA Foundation website.

Contributing Experts to Discuss Mumbai Attacks At December 4 Event

By Andrew Cochran

The Counterterrorism Foundation and The Counterterrorism Blog will hold a special panel on the Mumbai attacks this Thursday, December 4, at 11 am ET in room 2220 of the Rayburn House Building on Capitol Hill in Washington. Contributing Experts Walid Phares and Farhana Ali will participate, I will moderate the event, and a third panelist might be added. You can RSVP through this e-mail address (acceptances only, please). I will post a transcript of the event soon afterwards.

Walid Phares posted analyses of the attacks on November 30 and on November 26. Farhana Ali, formerly an international policy analyst with the U.S. government and the RAND Corporation, has traveled extensively there and to Kashmir, and maintains strong contacts with numerous officials and activists in the region.

The Importance of The Dawood Ibrahim Connection

By Douglas Farah

As my colleague on the CT Blog, Vic Comras noted, the name of Dawood Ibrahim is now associated with the terrorist attacks in Mumbai.

Ibrahim reportedly provided the initial boat for the attackers, and has strong ties to al Qaeda.

What is interesting about Ibrahim, who has been designated a terrorist by OFAC and many other governments, is that he is a pioneer in the criminal-terrorist nexus. For many years he has provided the criminal links al Qaeda, the Taliban and Pakistani terrorist groups have needed to move money, personnel and equipment. Despite how well known his activities are, he has never been apprehended.

Here is something I wrote about him more than two years ago, which helps shed some light on a person identified as a terrorist and criminal mastermind.

Ibrahim, with his immense wealth, underworld connections, and ties to Bollywood, was one of the first big fish to cross over to work with radical Islamists, starting more than a decade ago:

A criminal kingpin, ally of al Qaeda, large-scale drug runner and financer of some of Bollywood's biggest movies, Ibrahim loves to hang out with movie stars and live the good life. Not exactly a natural ally of radical Islamist groups, but he appears to provide the muscle and know-how to attacks, rather than being the intellectual author of the violence he has pariticpated in. His ideology seems more firmly wedded to his financial well-being than to his religious beliefs. My full blog is here.

Mumbai, a new modus operandi for jihadists?

By Olivier Guitta

I just wrote an article for the Middle East Times exploring the new modus operandi used by the jihadists in the Mumbai attacks.
You can read my full article here.

Here is an excerpt:

Mumbai, India's financial capital is now only barely waking up from its worst nightmare. Last week in simultaneous attacks, Islamist terrorists killed at least 195 people and injured another 300 during a 60-hour killing spree. The tactics used by the terrorists were different from the classical jihadist playbook. Does it mean that Mumbai-style attacks are the new jihadist modus operandi?

First, regarding the perpetrators, all the signs point to the involvement of the Pakistani terror group and al-Qaida affiliate Lashkar-e-Toiba (LeT). LeT is in fact a group propped up by Pakistan's Inter Services Intelligence (ISI) and mostly focusing until now on the "liberation" of the Kashmir province.

As early as Thursday, Russian intelligence stated that LeT, a group that underwent special training in al-Qaida camps at the India-Pakistan border, were behind the attacks.

On Friday U.S. intelligence and counterterrorism officials confirmed that assessment. And just on Sunday, the only terrorist captured by Indian police said that indeed LeT was behind the bloody attacks.

Even if the operation had been prepared for a long time, the timing might not be coincidental. A week ago Pakistani President Asif Ali Zardari went on a limb to advance peace with India. He declared that Pakistan would never be the first to use the atomic bomb against India and more importantly talking about Kashmir, he called the rebels "terrorists:" a first for a Pakistani president.

Reportedly some inside the ISI were very upset by this statement and by the possible rapprochement with India. What better way to kill these efforts than by pulling off a large terror operation in Mumbai?