Congressional Commission Warns of Bio and Nuclear Terrorism threats in 5 years.

By Michael Kraft

Greater government efforts and adequate follow-up budgets are needed to head off the threat of major biological terrorist attacks in the United State or overseas within the next five years, leaders of a congressionally mandated Commission on Weapons of Mass Destruction warned today.

Excerpts of the “World at Risk” report of the Commission on the Prevention of Weapons of Mass Destruction Proliferation and Terrorism” had been selectively released to some media earlier this week but Commission members expanded on it today during a news conference and a conference call. They also briefed Vice President-elect Senator Joseph Biden and Arizona Governor Janet Napolitano, President-elect Obama’s nominee for Secretary of Homeland Security.

Senator Biden, as he met with the Commissioners told reporters: “we are not doing all we can to prevent the world’s most lethal weapons from winding up in the hands of terrorists.”

The Commission members said the risk of biological or nuclear attacks is growing because Al Qaeda and other terrorists have shown continued interest in using such weapons of mass destruction and could try to hire rogue scientists. Former Senator Bob Graham (D-Texas), chairman of the commission told a news conference Wednesday that Al Qaeda is the most likely group to use these weapons of mass destruction because of its past efforts in this area and “it has reorganized itself into a more nimble and global organization.”

The bi-partisan Commission report said that “it is more likely than not that a weapon of mass destruction will be used in a terrorist attack somewhere in the world by the end of 2013.” The Commission also said that it “believes that terrorists are more likely to obtain and use a biological weapon than a nuclear weapon.

In a conference call with bloggers after the news conference report was released, former Senator Jim Talent (R-Missouri), the Commission’s vice chairman, said that although there were a number of programs already underway to counter threats of bioterrorism, there has to be follow up and budget support. The report said that, for example, in the medical area alone, the Bush Administration had submitted a FY 2009 budget request of $969 to fund research and development of medical countermeasures, new approaches to deal with countermeasures, and early detection equipment of bioagents. The report urged the new Congress to act quickly on the funding requests.

The Commission recommended that the incoming Obama Administration designate a high level White House official to coordinate the government-wide efforts to prevent weapons of mass destruction attacks. To improve implementation, the report stressed that the official should “have the budget authority (including a direct link to the Office of Management and Budget) to assess funding levels, fix short-falls, and adjust programs.” .

The Boston Globe reported earlier in the day that President-elect Obama will fill the White House position which was left vacant by the Bush Administration because it did not want such a White House official confirmed by the Senate and thereby subject to testifying before Congress. The Commission recommended repealing the law requiring confirmation. It was not clear if the Obama transition team was considering giving the WMD coordinator such budget authority but Senator Talent emphasized the need for the funding necessary to properly implement the programs. From my observations of the difficulties in getting OMB to approve the State Department’s funding requests for its Anti-Terrorism Training Assistance and related programs to help friendly nations, the Commission’s recommendations are on the right track.

The Commission also proposed that the proposed senior advisor should “play the lead role in coordinating policies and operations to prevent WMD proliferation and terrorism and would be responsible for advising the President how policy decisions across government - foreign policy, defense, trade and so forth—would affect the mission of preventing WMD proliferation and terrorism.“ The report did not spell out the relationship with the State Department’s Ambassador-rank Coordinator for Counterterrorism. Generally, that office has worked closely with the senior NSC officials assigned to counterterrorism issues. Sen. Talent said the new office was intended to deal with the “nexus between WMD and terrorism.”

Much of the report dealt with the threat of WMD attacks on U.S., and it also discussed the need for improving the nation’s detection and response capabilities. Medical experts have said that one difficulty in countering WMD attacks is that it can take a few days before symptoms can be identified as they often resemble the flue or other ailments.

The report also addressed the international dimension of the bioterrorism problem, which is being discussed at a U.N conference on bioterrorism being held in Geneva this week.

For example, the Commission report proposed a number of measures to strengthen international cooperation, for example, strengthening norms and safeguards to keep dangerous pathogens out of the hands of terrorists.

Professor Barry Kellman, director of the International Weapons Control Center at the DePaul University College of Law who has specialized in assisting international efforts to counter bioterrorism threats said in a statement commenting on the report: “there is no coherent government strategy for reducing bioterrorism dangers, and no governmental agency has lead responsibility for promoting international initiatives for enhancing security. It is imperative that President-elect Barack Obama prepare and implement a comprehensive plan for reducing bioterrorism dangers.”

Kellman is heading a government-backed study to assist policymakers in defining and implementing policies for reducing biological threats globally. Kellman, who I first met at State Department meetings on the issue servral years ago, said that study asserts that dangers associated with malevolent infliction of disease (bioviolence) are inherently international in scope and, therefore, demand multilateral action. Kellman, in a statement released by DePaul University suggests a four-pillar plan addressing biosecurity, detection and interruption of biothreats, rapid response and reasonable state behavior.

State Department officials said they agree with the Commission that international bioterrorism and biological weapons (BW) proliferation remain significant and rising threats to the nation. The said the Department also recognizes the need to continue to develop and strengthen effective prevention strategies that keep terrorist organizations from acquiring the materials and expertise necessary to produce BW.

The State Department for years has been conducting various programs to counter biological and nuclear terrorism threats.

In press guidance prepared in response with inquiries, the State Department said that in accordance with the President’s Biodefense for the 21st Century strategy, the U.S. has pursued aggressively a broad range of programs and capabilities to confront the biological weapons threat.

Among other programs, the State Department runs the Bio-engagement Program (BEP) which is designed to engage and train scientists worldwide; transparently promote U.S. biosecurity interests; improve pathogen security within laboratories; and develop cooperative research programs and infectious disease surveillance capacity. The program is budgeted at about $30 million a year. The State Department said that extensive programs have been initiated in high risk countries like Pakistan, Iraq, Afghanistan, and Indonesia while the Department continues to implement programs in Russia and Central Asia to address the remaining risks posed by former Soviet weapons scientists who might be tempted to work for rogue regimes or terrorists.

Several years ago, the Department and the Justice Department also drafted model legislation to help other countries strengthen their laws covering substances that could be used for bioagents.

In response to a question at the news conference, Senator Graham said his Commission focused the bio and nuclear issues during its six months of work because members concluded that these threats were more imminent and potentially more dangerous than attacks using chemical or radioactive materials.

The report, which was drafted before last week’s terrorist attacks in Mumbai, said “we must work with Pakistan and other countries in the region to eliminate terrorist safe havens through military, economic and diplomatic means; secure nuclear and biological materials in Pakistan, counter and defeat extremist ideology; and constrain a nascent nuclear arms race in Asia.”

Thus, this report is another signpost to the many problems facing the new national security team.

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