Iraq's Upcoming Provincial Elections
By Daveed Gartenstein-Ross
Today I published an intelligence briefing for FDD that examines the implications of the upcoming provincial elections in Iraq. An excerpt:
- IRAQIS GO TO THE POLLS. On January 31, 2009, Iraqis will go to the
polls to select their political representatives in 14 of the country’s
18 provinces. This will mark the fourth time since 2005 that Iraq has
held elections. Previous votes include January 2005 elections to select
provincial representatives and an interim national assembly to draft
Iraq’s constitution (an election that Iraq’s Sunnis largely boycotted);
an October 2005 referendum on the national constitution; and
parliamentary elections in December 2005. Iraq will also hold elections
later this year for the national parliament, and to consider the
U.S.-Iraq security pact.
- FEAR OF VIOLENCE. There have always been heightened concerns about
the potential for violence when Iraq has held elections, and this year
is no exception. However, levels of violence were surprisingly low on
all three election days in 2005. This year, U.S. and Iraqi security
forces are preparing for possible outbreaks of violence, particularly
in the ethnically mixed Diyala province where tensions between the Arab
and Kurdish population have simmered. Time reports that “U.S. commanders last week brokered a deal” for Diyala “that will
see area security provided by a joint force of Iraqi-army and Peshmerga
fighters, with U.S. troops present to make sure everyone stays calm.”
- TURNOUT. There were initially concerns that turnout for the
elections might be low since they were scheduled at the time of a
traditional Shia pilgrimage to Karbala that typically draws hundreds of
thousands of visitors. Shia religious and political leaders have been
working with the pilgrims to facilitate voting. But despite the timing
of the elections, it appears that there will be a large turnout on
Saturday: a recent poll conducted by Iraq’s government found that 73% of Iraqi adults intend to vote.
Click
here to read the full intelligence briefing.
