Is Removal of Cuba From "State Sponsors" List Inevitable?

By Andrew Cochran

The release by Sen. Richard Lugar (R-IN) of a draft staff report on U.S.-Cuba policy, his statement yesterday upon release of that report, and statements by Secretary of State Clinton on the future of the relationship point towards the removal of Cuba from the "state sponsors of terrorism" list within the next 18 months, perhaps even this year. Sen. Lugar, the ranking Republican on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, released the report with the following indictment of U.S. foreign policy towards Cuba: "Despite uncertainty about Cuba's mid-term political future, it is clear that the recent leadership changes have created an opportunity for the United States to reevaluate a complex relationship marked by misunderstanding, suspicion, and open hostility. Economic sanctions are a legitimate tool of U.S. foreign policy and they have sometimes achieved their aims, as in the case of apartheid in South Africa. After 47 years, however, the unilateral embargo on Cuba has failed to achieve its stated purpose of 'bringing democracy to the Cuban people,' while it may have been used as a foil by the regime to demand further sacrifices from Cuba's impoverished population. The current U.S. policy has many passionate defenders, and their criticism of the Castro regime is justified. Nevertheless, we must recognize the ineffectiveness of our current policy and deal with the Cuban regime in a way that enhances U.S. interests."

When posting news of the report, Steve Clemons also reported that U.S.-Cuba policy is under a complete review at the State Department. Secretary Clinton didn't deny that the review could include removal from the "state sponsors" list when Sen. Lugar asked a question on point during her confirmation process (see Question 104). The Lugar staff report discusses the process by which that would be accomplished (page 19). Michael Kraft discussed the process and other issues in a post about Cuba and North Korea on February 19, 2008. Quoting: "In Cuba’s case, the country has been relatively passive in its support for terrorism in recent years, perhaps because of the demise of the old Soviet Union, its major backer, and Cuba’s resulting economic problems. It remains on the terrorism list primarily because of its harboring of Latin American terrorist suspects and a few American fugitives from law. However, Castro’s regime has not sought removal from the terrorism list, making it more difficult for a President to be able to obtain and give Congress any credible assurances that the Cuban regime would not support terrorism in the future. Perhaps even more important is the opposition that would likely be aroused among the Cuban-American voting bloc in the politically important state of Florida. While Castro was in power no Administration has an incentive to take on that issue." During our panel discussion about FARC and Chavez last March, Jonathan Winer discussed the lack of evidence of Cuba’s support for terrorist groups in the past 10 years for terrorist groups with Steven Monblatt, the former Deputy Counter-terrorism Coordinator at the State Department.

Thus, based on an objective reading of the record, Cuba does not warrant inclusion on the list.

There would be another complication if the Administration moved to remove Cuba from the list, as I discussed last year when writing on the precedential value of the Libyan Claims Resolution Act: "Cuba is a special case. The Foreign Claims Settlement Commission at the Justice Department has already verified over 5,900 valid claims against the Castro regime for expropriating U.S. nationals’ property and for causing the disability or death of U.S. nationals, with a total principal value of over $1.9 billion. What happens to those certified claims if/when Cuba is removed from the "state sponsors" list and we normalize relations? Will those claimants be consulted before a settlement deal is concluded? At this point, I can only guess the answers." I predict that could be a sizable source of conflict, as that commission is not known for rapid adjudication of claims before it.

Mike Kraft wrote a year ago, "In short, any Cuban supporters... who may think that removing these countries from the terrorism list is a simple matter have more home work to do." Sen. Lugar's report and support for a sea change in relations moves the ball considerably.