What Does Ethiopia's Withdrawal Mean for Somalia's Future?
By Daveed Gartenstein-Ross
As Ethiopian forces have withdrawn from Somalia, Shabaab militants have taken their place. Shabaab's area of effective control now stretches from Baidoa in south-central
Somalia and Kismayo in the far south all the way to the capital of
Mogadishu. Today I have an article in the Middle East Times examining the situation that Somalia confronts. An excerpt:
The circumstances of Ethiopia's withdrawal can only be described as a defeat. Anti-Ethiopian insurgent forces split into two primary groups during the course of the fighting. The Alliance for Re-liberation of Somalia (ARS) is frequently described as a "moderate Islamist" faction by the international press, and much pressure was brought to bear on the TFG [transitional federal government] to constructively engage with ARS, including by the U.S. State Department. (Some observers believe that labeling the ARS "moderate" is inaccurate.) The insurgent faction that now lays claim to a large part of Somalia, Shabaab, is regarded as extremist by virtually all outside observers.
A large number of Somali members of parliament fled their country as the Ethiopians left. The exiled lawmakers settled in Djibouti, where they promptly set about undertaking "reconciliation talks." The representatives agreed to double the size of the parliament to include Islamist MPs affiliated with the ARS, and they selected ARS leader Sheikh Sharif Sheikh Ahmed as their new president following Abdullahi Yusuf Ahmed's December resignation.
President Ahmed has said, "I think we can improve the situation in Somalia and establish genuine peace and reconciliation in my country." But it's difficult to see how this can be accomplished.
"Where will this parliament go?" asks Abdiweli Ali, an associate professor of economics at Niagara University and a former adviser to the TFG. "The seat of government has already been captured by Shabaab."
You can read the whole article
here.
