Will Afghanistan Awake?

By Daveed Gartenstein-Ross

Earlier this year, I wrote a couple of pieces about the prospects of an Afghan "Awakening" with my colleague Joshua Goodman (detailing Iraqi Awakening leader Sheikh Ahmad Abu Risha's suggestions for an Afghan Awakening, and responding to the early criticisms of Canadian defense minister Peter MacKay). Yesterday I had an op-ed in the Washington Times that analyzes four of the major criticisms of the prospects of an Afghan Awakening. An excerpt:

U.S. Central Command recently announced it will be supporting an indigenous movement opposing al Qaeda and the Taliban in Afghanistan, similar to the Awakening movement that was central to turning Iraq around. Already, critics are saying it won't work.

Iraq's Anbar Awakening was a collection of Sunni tribesmen, Iraqi nationalists, former insurgents and others united by the goal of driving al Qaeda from their country. Coalition forces gave this movement protection and support at key points, and it was later broadened through the Sons of Iraq, a U.S. initiative authorizing formation of paramilitary organizations.

There are good reasons to think the case for pessimism in Afghanistan is wrong. Four arguments are commonly made suggesting an Afghan Awakening could not succeed: that it would detract from improvements in Afghan security forces, that Afghanistan is too different from Iraq, that the Pashtun tribes would not support an Awakening, and that these efforts could destabilize Afghanistan.

Canadian Defense Minister Peter MacKay, for example, opposes an Afghan Awakening because he prefers a more formal training process that leads to a more reliable, more professional soldier and Afghan national security force. One problem with this view is that Afghan forces have been slow to develop. Newsweek recently reported that U.S. commanders think Afghan units may not be able to operate independently for another five years. Moreover, there is no forced choice between an Awakening and the development of Afghan forces. Both can be done at once.

You can read the entire op-ed here.