The BRN-C's Birthday Bash

By Zachary Abuza

Yesterday marked the 46th anniversary of the founding of the Barisan Revolusi Nasional, a Malay separatist movement in southern Thailand. A hardline splinter of the organization, BRN-Coordinate, has been at the forefront of the insurgency since January 2004. More than 3,600 people have been killed, and nearly twice that number have been wounded. To commemorate the event, the BRN-C killed three soldiers and seriously wounded four more.

Since the September 2006 coup that displaced Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, there have been high hopes that the successive governments would reverse the abusive policies of the Thaksin administration and quell the violence. All have failed. The interim government of Surayud Chultanont deserved credit for at least trying: but they were in denial about the Islamist and secessionist goals of the movement. They entered into talks with “insurgents” representatives of the insurgent organizations that through in the towel in the 1990s, only to be surpassed by the hardline BRN-C, who have demonstrated on willingness or need to negotiate. The two prime ministers of the People’s Power party, didn’t give a damn, barely mentioned the south, and were so fearful of another coup that they let the military do whatever they wanted.

And what the Royal Thai Army wanted were weapons systems that in no way conform to the threats the country faces. Since the September 2006 coup, the RTA rewarded itself with a significant budget increases. In December 2006, it announced major arms purchases worth Bt7.7 billion. The purchases included Swedish Gripen jet fighters, Ukranian armored personnel carriers, Chinese surface-to-surface missiles, and submarines, hardly the weapons systems needed to combat an insurgency. This was followed with a second wave of arms purchases worth $191.3 million in September 2008. This round included a Singaporean built amphibious frigate, Russian anti-aircraft missiles, as well as some Israeli small-arms. Torpedoing insurgents the military can’t even find? It was only in January 2009, in the third tranche of arms imports that were more oriented for counter insurgency. They include, 6 Russian-made Mi-17 helicopters, nearly 100 South African-made armored personnel carriers, and 80 Ukranian APCs and assault rifles.

With the backroom dealings and politicization of the judiciary that led to the Democrat Party’s assumption of power on 15 December 2008, there are once again high hopes that the insurgency will be quelled.

Obviously unconcerned about the possibility of a coup, having the full backing of the military and monarchy, Prime Minister Abhisit pledged greater civilian oversight over the military. Abhisit has spoken of the Democrat Party’s deep ties in the south, their traditional stronghold. He reiterated the failed pledges of former Prime Minister Surayud Chulanont’s regime to engage in samanchan - reconciliation.

This does not bode well for the south and suggests that little progress will be made under the leadership of the Democrats: they still fail to see the insurgency for what it is and fail to acknowledge the goal to establish an independent Islamic state. In five years, those responsible for the violence have not entered into talks with the government. For them, there is nothing to reconcile.

And though they are not winning, neither are they losing. Few, if any, insurgent leaders have been captured and their ability to conduct operations across four provinces on a daily basis remains intact.

In the 90 days since assuming power, Abhisit has proven unable to quell the violence. 95 people have been killed and 149 wounded. Among the dead are 5 police, 14 soldiers, 24 rangers and village defense volunteers and 62 civilians. The 149 wounded include, 31 police, 58 soldiers 9 rangers and village defense volunteers, and 51 civilians. There have been 35 bombings and 7 attempted bombings. Insurgents have beheaded 7 of their victims and desecrated 6 additional corpses. Today, 2 more schools were arsoned.

This rate of violence is unsustainable and the reality is, large swaths of the southern Thailand are ungoverned territory. It is now year 6 of the insurgency; it is time for the Thai government to get serious. How many people will be killed on the BRN’s 47th birthday?