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The President's message to Iran: Is the regime interested?By Walid Phares
President Obama addressed a message to the Iranian people and leadership calling on the regime to open a new page in the strained relationship. Tehran answered quickly that its expectations are to see Washington change its behavior. In comments made on Russia Today TV, I clarified that the Iranian regime expects the Obama Administration to take more steps including apologizing for so-called ‘past mistakes’. But the US Administration is on a different track, as far as we know. It is giving Ahmedinijad a chance to begin changing its own policies. While on the surface, we see a moment of rapprochement, the actual issues to discuss are still too tough to solve. Washington wants to engage Iran on the ground of stopping the military nuclear program and ceasing support to Hezbollah and Hamas, while Tehran considers these matters as a no-go area of concession.
In an interview with Beirut-based NBN TV this afternoon I argued that this statement by Obama may be an opportunity for the Iranian decision-makers to consider a u-turn on strategic matters, but the fact is that the regime feels it has the upper hand everywhere in the Middle East. Why would they make concessions if their perception is that the US is already withdrawing from Iraq, is requesting their help in Afghanistan and is not committed to support democracy in Iran? In my recent book The Confrontation: Winning he War against Future Jihad, I recommended a full fledged support to forces of change inside Iran as a strategic path to influencing Tehran. Without internal leverage over the regime it is less likely that American new messaging would bare fruits. What we are witnessing now is an experiment with the Iranian regime which may harden the regime even further, unless Ahmedinijad loses the forthcoming election next June. But let's keep in mind, that power, real power in Iran, is in the hands of Khamenei. And I don't think the Ayatollah is interested in de radicalizing his own regime.
Following is an interview on Fox News analyzing the President message and Khamenei's response http://theconfrontation.net/wp/?p=281
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