SWAT Analysis: Rampaging Taliban Militants Spread Chaos Across Pakistan

By Animesh Roul

'Swat Analysis’ is a Daily brief on the resurgent Taliban and their safe sanctuaries in Pakistan. The brief will be posted in regular intervals focusing on the developments in Swat province, NWPF and other Taliban hotspots.

Amid ongoing battle between Taliban and Pakistan security forces in Swat province in NWFP, Taliban and Al Qaeda elements in Pakistan have targeted two major urban centers. Lahore and Peshawar witnessed suicide blasts and shootings in a span of two days. Thursday’s (May 28) twin blasts in Peshawar, the provincial capital of North West Frontier Province killed at least six people in Qissa Khawani market area in Kabari Bazaar in the evening. The militants used two motorbike fitted explosives in these markets. Elsewhere near Peshawar, a suicide bomber drove past his explosives-laden vehicle through a security check post located in Dera Ismail Khan, killing 3 people including a policeman. Nearly 90 people were injured in these two incidents.

A day earlier, on May 27, Taliban suicide bomber triggered a massive blast near Intelligence Agency (ISI) office in Lahore. Nearly 25 people died including security personnel. Scores of people were injured in the blast and simultaneous gunfire by militants.

Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) claimed responsibility for the Lahore suicide bombing. According to the SITE , the TTP made the claim in a Turkish-language statement in jihadist websites through an organization called Elif Media. In that message TTP reportedly urged civilians to stay away from areas where the security forces are stationed. Also a Taliban commander Hakimullah Mehsud confirmed Taliban’s hand in the Lahore attack and threatened for more similar carnage in Pakistan’s other urban centers. There next target could be capital city Islamabad and port city Karachi.

TTP chief Baitullah Mehsud has reportedly ordered militants to carry out bombings in Swat and FATA and at the same time, to move for safer hideouts.

Meanwhile, Pakistan military troops took control of Mingora, the main town of Swat. They also cleared Bahrain and Peochar (the hideout of Maulana Fazlullah) in Swat. Many senior Taliban commanders including Abu Huzaifa and Sultan Khan were killed in latest offensive. The Pakistan government raised the head money for Maulana Fazlullah to 50 million rupees now. Earlier the NWFP government has announced rewards for providing information on 21 Taliban commanders.(Listed below)

Now, the army operation is moving towards another Taliban Stronghold, South Waziristan where militants have attacked security posts. In the ongoing Swat battle the Army so far has lost 90 troops and killed more than 2000 Taliban militants so far. But as things stand now, the resolve of Taliban remains unchanged.

The Taliban's Continued Foreign Support

By Douglas Farah

Little noticed in the discussion of the Pakistan/Afghanistan Taliban issues are the points raised recently by Gen. David Petraeus about the continued use of charities and other external support for the radical Islamist group.

While there has been considerable attention paid to the revenue generated from opium trafficking in the Taliban's financial structure, little has been relatively little attention paid to the continuing role of charities in skimming off money that benefits the Taliban and others.

"You have funds generated locally, funds that come in from the outside, and funds that come from the illegal narcotics business," he said. "It's a hotly debated topic as to which is the most significant and it may be that they are all roughly around the same level."

Gen. Petraeus estimated that the Taliban raise a total of "hundreds and hundreds of millions of dollars" each year from the three sources, and said the U.S. doesn't have precise figures.

Charities, as we learned right after 9/11 are not only valuable for the money they can raise and distribute virtually undetected, but for the identification cards and travel facilities they offer radical operatives to move around with official cover.

(This was shown by both the Benevolence International trial and the recent Holy Land Foundation trial, where principals received stiff sentences because of their charitable support for Hamas.) My full blog is here.

The Global Economic Crisis and Iraq's Future

By Daveed Gartenstein-Ross

My colleague Josh Goodman and I have an article in the new issue of inFocus examining the impact that the global economic crisis will have on the future of Iraq. An excerpt:

Last summer, when oil prices reached all-time highs virtually every day, it seemed that one of the few silver linings was a more stable future for Iraq. Surging oil prices appeared to give Iraq a windfall; experts forecast an improving economy that could diminish support for the insurgency and increase resources for Iraq's nascent security forces. But now that the collapse in the world's economy has caused oil prices to plummet, what does the future hold for Iraq?

While estimates of Iraq's dependence on oil revenues vary wildly, oil clearly lies at the heart of the country's economy. Indeed, median estimates hold that oil accounts for more than 80 percent of its revenues. Iraq now faces several challenges spawned by the global recession. These challenges come just as the U.S.—pursuant to agreements with Iraq's government—is due to cease its patrols of cities. While a spiral into chaos is not inevitable, there is a clear opening for insurgent factions.

The decline in oil prices has left Iraq short of revenues. Speaking at a London-based think tank in early May, Iraqi deputy prime minister Barham Saleh said that the economic crisis "has had a serious impact" on Iraq's economy, with "plummeting oil prices" forcing the country "to constrain our government spending."

Accordingly, Iraq's government slashed its 2009 budget by about 25 percent, from $80 billion to nearly $60 billion. Yet, despite this reduction in expenditures, around $20 billion of that figure will be deficit spending. This is made possible in part by the fact that a budgetary surplus of around $35 billion remains from the 2008 oil boom.

Jim Durso, who served in the transportation ministry of the Coalition Provisional Authority, predicts that Iraq will try to "make that money last as long as they can, spend it on essential services, and hope that foreign investment can pay for infrastructure."

However, budgetary shortfalls will likely directly impact Iraq's ability to maintain security. Over the past two years, the size of the Iraqi security forces has almost tripled—from 250,000 uniformed personnel to 609,000. With less money in its coffers for salaries, Iraq must curtail the expansion of these forces.

HLF Judge Imposes Long Sentences

By The Investigative Project on Terrorism (IPT)

DALLAS - A federal judge imposed what could amount to life sentences on three former leaders of the Holy Land Foundation for Relief and Development (HLF) on Wednesday for illegally routing more than $12 million to Hamas.

"The purpose of creating the Holy Land Foundation was as a fundraising arm for Hamas," said U.S. District Judge Jorge Solis.

He sentenced former HLF Chief Executive Officer Shukri Abu Baker and co-founder Ghassan Elashi to 65 years in prison. Longtime HLF chairman Mohamed El-Mezain, who was convicted only on one count of conspiring to provide material support to terrorists, received the maximum 15-year sentence.

While appeals are being prepared, the sentencing hearings end the largest terror financing case in the United States, one which closed the largest Muslim-American charity in 2001. Its significance, however, resonates far beyond the Dallas courtroom and the five men convicted by a jury last November.

The evidence showed that HLF was part of a broad Muslim Brotherhood conspiracy in the United States called the Palestine Committee, which was to serve Hamas with "media, money and men." Those exhibits show the depth of Muslim Brotherhood activity here, which at its height included a think tank in Virginia, a propaganda arm in Texas and Chicago, and a political operation that continues to exert influence today.

It also led to the discovery of a Brotherhood memorandum from 1991 that describes the group's goal in America. It called for a "civilization-jihadist process" and a "grand jihad" that aimed at "eliminating and destroying the Western civilization from within … so that it is eliminated and God's religion is made victorious over all other religions."

The Council on American-Islamic Relations (CAIR) is a Palestine Committee legacy. Last year, the FBI decided to cut off communication with CAIR due to concerns about the evidence showing the organization's Hamas roots.

"Nevertheless, until we can resolve whether there continues to be a connection between CAIR or its executives and HAMAS, the FBI does not view CAIR as an appropriate liaison partner," wrote Richard C. Powers, an assistant director in the FBI's office of Congressional Affairs, last month.

Check out our full live report from Dallas here.

Collateral Damage From West Africa's Drug Trafficking

By Douglas Farah

I have heard recently in discussions with people on the Hill and in policy making circles that the exploding drug trafficking phenomenon in West Africa is not really a U.S. security concern because most of the cocaine that transits through that region is bound for Europe and not the United States.

There are several thing wrong with that perspective, I believe. The first is that the traffickers will (and already have) attack the fragile institutions and rule of law where they exist, and they are already incredibly weak. But in countries like Ghana and Mali, where notable progress has been made, and Liberia and Sierra Leone, struggling after years of punishing civil wars, some progress has been made.

Drug trafficking, which must rely on corruption and coercion because it is illegal, will make the possibility of establishing the rule of law in the region virtually impossible. That will translate into another round of instability and carnage in an area that has already suffered a great deal. But what will get broader attention is the fact that the region at stake produces close to 20 percent of the oil we use, and the production will plummet as the chaos spreads.

There are also other reasons to care about the massive inflow of illicit cash. Remember that Hezbollah, al Qaeda and other terrorist groups have funded themselves from illicit drugs, diamonds and timber, including activities in West Africa.

For a fascinating glimpse at the scope of the illicit money activities of Hezbollah in West Africa, see this OFAC announcement released today on the targeting of Hezbollah fundraisers in West Africa.

Abd Al Menhem Qubaysi is a Cote d'Ivoire-based Hizballah supporter and is the personal representative of Hizballah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah. Qubaysi communicates with Hizballah leaders and has hosted senior Hizballah officials traveling to Cote d'Ivoire and other parts of Africa to raise money for Hizballah. Qubaysi plays a visible role in Hizballah activities in Cote d'Ivoire, including speaking at Hizballah fundraising events and sponsoring meetings with high-ranking members of the terrorist organization.

Qubaysi also helped establish an official Hizballah foundation in Cote d'Ivoire which has been used to recruit new members for Hizballah's military ranks in Lebanon.
My full blog is here.

Hezbollah Supporters Targeted in Africa

By Matthew Levitt

Following earlier designations targeting Hezbollah networks in South America, the U.S. Treasury designated today two Hezbollah supporters based in Africa. The action is significant, given that Hizballah operatives in Africa raise and launder significant sums of money, recruit local operatives, collect preoperational intelligence, and support the organization's terrorist activities against Israeli, U.S., and other Western interests.

According to information released by the Treasury Department:

Kassim Tajideen is an important financial contributor to Hizballah who operates a network of businesses in Lebanon and Africa. He has contributed tens of millions of dollars to Hizballah and has sent funds to Hizballah through his brother, a Hizballah commander in Lebanon. In addition, Kassim Tajideen and his brothers run cover companies for Hizballah in Africa. In 2003, Tajideen was arrested in Belgium in connection with fraud, money laundering, and diamond smuggling.

Hizballah and Hamas in the News

By David Schenker

In a weekend of blockbuster news headlines—starting with North Korea’s detonation of yet another nuclear weapon—Lebanon and Syria once again made the front pages.

On Saturday Der Spiegel ran a story providing details of Hizballah’s involvement in the assassination of former Lebanese premier Rafiq Hariri. The story had been floating around for months, but this was the first major news outlet to run with the scoop.

Hizballah’s Hassan Nasrallah has dismissed the story as an Israeli fabrication, comparing it to similar stories published earlier in the Kuwaiti As Siyasa and in the Egyptian press. Despite the organization’s attempts at damage control, the story could impact the outcome of the extremely close Lebanese elections on June 7.

In other developments, An Nahar reported today that this past weekend, Russian FM Sergei Lavrov, in Damascus for talks with President Asad, met Hamas leader Khalid Mashal. According to a Hamas statement published in An Nahar, the Russians stressed the importance of contacts with Hamas, confirming that they made the right decision in establishing relations with the organization.

It’s unclear where this leaves the Quartet consensus requirements for Hamas to join a Palestinian Government of National Unity (i.e., abiding by previously made PLO agreements with Israel, rejection of violence, and accepting Israel’s right to exist).

NEFA Foundation Chart: "Al-Qaida's Online Couriers: The Al-Fajr Media Center and the Global Islamic Media Front (GIMF)"

By Evan Kohlmann

The NEFA Foundation has released a new interactive chart that I have created titled, "Al-Qaida's Online Couriers: The Al-Fajr Media Center and the Global Islamic Media Front (GIMF)." The chart maps out in detail the multi-step process by which multimedia recorded by mujahideen organizations in the field is distributed online--including the critical roles played by the pre-eminent Internet logistical service providers (namely Al-Fajr and the GIMF). As indicated by the chart, the Al-Fajr Media Center has official "contractual" partnerships with the As-Sahab Media Foundation, Al-Qaida's "Islamic State of Iraq" (ISI), Al-Qaida in the Arabian Peninsula (Yemen), Al-Qaida in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM), Ansar al-Islam in Iraq, and the Islam Awazi Information Center (the media wing of the Turkestan Islamic Party). Conversely, at present, the GIMF boasts its own active service relationships with Jaish al-Islam and Tawheed wal-Jihad in the Gaza Strip, and the Shabaab al-Mujahideen Movement in Somalia.

The interactive chart can be viewed on the NEFA Foundation website.

First Jihadi Cell of 2009 Busted In the United States — What Does It Mean?

By Walid Phares

A successful counter-terrorism operation led by the FBI and the New York City Police Department ended with the arrest of four New York City men in connection with plots to bomb Jewish synagogues and gun down military planes in upstate areas.

According to Police Commissioner Raymond Kelly the suspects, identified as James Cromitie, David Williams, Onta Williams and Laguerre Payen allegedly “wanted to commit jihad.” A first reading of the material made available by authorities and statements issued by officials help us ask several questions and raise a number of points for debate.

"Homegrown Jihadism?"

A Victory for Law Enforcement

The first thing to acknowledge is the success of the operation conducted by the counter-terrorism agencies to stop a “jihadi” attack against the country.

According to the Associated Press, the arrests came following a nearly yearlong undercover operation that began in Newburgh, N.Y., roughly 70 miles north of New York City. The patience, professionalism and sophistication of the law enforcement procedures in engaging the “cell” until it is trapped tell us that the first lines of defense are efficient. Since the 9/11 attacks the New York task forces have been able to arrest suspects in a number of plots including against the Fort Dix New Jersey military base, John F. Kennedy Airport, the Herald Square subway station in Manhattan and the Brooklyn Bridge.

This leads us to realize that in fact both New York and the nation have been attacked but the shield has worked well, so far. The dismantling of the first cell of 2009 is certainly good news and an additional victory to be credited to the counter-terrorism units but it should be a stark reminder that we –- as a nation — are still under attack, eight years after the September 11 massacres. And if we are under attack, it only means that we are still at war, a real one, not a “man-made disaster.”

Coffee & Counter-Insurgency: Analyzing the anti-Starbucks Jihad

By Aaron Mannes

The invaluable Middle East Media Research Institute recently posted a video from al-Nas TV in Egypt. A cleric named Safwat Higazi calls for a boycott against Starbucks because the Starbucks logo is Queen Esther (the heroine of Purim, a Jewish holiday celebrating a foiled plot to murder the Jews of ancient Persia.)

Higazi is not alone, another Egyptian cleric on another channel, citing the Protocols of the Elders of Zion cites detergents, soft drinks, as well as several chain fast food restaurants (including Little Ceasars along with Starbucks) as being Jewish-Zionist products that are part of a plot “to erase Islamic identity.”

This is, of course, like so much in the Arab media, simply ridiculous – feverish conspiracy theories intended to distract from a squalid reality. Hopefully recent Islamist calls to boycott Starbucks will not lead to violence. But the anti-Starbucks campaign has historic resonance and speaks to the root of frustrations in the greater Middle East.

Mocha vs. Java

Read the complete post here.

The Bronx Plot and Informants

By The Investigative Project on Terrorism (IPT)

Just when threats of terrorism had seemingly disappeared from the radar screen, Americans woke up Thursday morning to hear the news about four radical Muslims who plotted to bomb two synagogues in New York and shoot down a military plane using a Stinger missile. Fortunately, the FBI had infiltrated the plotters from the very beginning with a confidential informant who learned of the plan from an Afghan-born Muslim.

Prosecutors say the suspects obtained what they believed was a live Stinger missile and three improvised explosive devices with C-4 explosive. "While the weapons provided to the defendants by the cooperating witness were fake, the defendants thought they were absolutely real," said acting United States attorney Lev Dassin in a prepared statement.

There are several lessons that the U.S. government and public should finally learn from this plot.

The first is that the threat of home-grown terrorism is very real. The arrests come on the heels of convictions in a plot that targeted Fort Dix in New Jersey and one that sought to establish a jihadi training camp in Oregon.

All three cases ended without anyone being hurt—with the assistance of FBI informants. In Fort Dix, the defendants were arrested as they met with the informant to buy M-16 and AK-47 rifles to use in their planned attack.

As acting United States Attorney Ralph J. Marra Jr. said after the verdict: "The word should go out to any other would-be terrorists of the homegrown variety that the United States will find you, infiltrate your group, prosecute you and send you to a federal prison for a very long time."

Despite this record of success, protests and press conferences have been held by "mainstream" Islamic groups in California, Detroit, Chicago, and elsewhere during the past few months bitterly protesting the FBI's use of an informant in a California mosque. In that case, an FBI agent testified under oath that Ahmadullah Niazi had been trying to recruit jihadists and had disseminated al Qaeda and virulent and violent anti-American recordings. He allegedly exhorted the informant to carry out jihad, praised Osama bin Laden as an angel, and even promised to send the informant overseas to get terrorist training to carry out attacks here in the United States.

The Council on American-Islamic Relations and the Muslim Public Affairs Council have jumped on the informant's role, accusing the FBI of sending him out on a directionless fishing expedition. In interviews and press conferences, they promoted the lie that the FBI has been infiltrating mosques across the United States and actually radicalized the members and exhorted them to carry out jihad. Niazi, however, clearly was identified as the promoter of jihad and bin Laden by the FBI. He allegedly lied about his communication with his brother-in-law, who provided security to bin Laden.

Read the whole article here.

Specks of Light in the Counter-Drug/Terrorist Efforts?

By Douglas Farah

Yesterday I had the opportunity to comment at the New America Foundation on the new book by Seeds of Terror: How Heroin is Bankrolling the Taliban and al Qaeda, by Gretchen Peters.

What was interesting in the counter-terrorism context was what it would take to wean the poppy growers, or coca growers or other producers of illicit crops, to move toward alternatives.

We agreed on two basic points: There is little that can replace the real money the illicit crops generate; and most of the farmers engaged in the trade would rather not be in it because of the hassle, religious concerns in the case of the Muslim community, or other concerns. So the question becomes, what is the tipping point to move people to other activities.

The problem is that in order to find that tipping point, the government (or external forces) must be willing, and have the capacity, to step into the breach immediately to meet the felt needs of the community that is being affected. The measure of success is not the amount of crops eradicated, but the number of people and farmland that move to other activities because it is viable.

That means that, even if, from a macro-economic point of view building a hydro-electric project makes sense, what is really needed are the soccer fields, schools and public spaces that the community wants.

Of course, in order to do that, there has to be a sufficient level of security so that the projects can be built without being immediately destroyed, and the population can use them without fear of retaliation. In other words, the clear and hold model has to work.

So the Washington Post story on a new approach in Colombia is of interest because it is trying this approach, with some at least temporary success. My full blog is here.

Implementation Matters: Bureaucracies@War

By Aaron Mannes

A Washington Post article on SecDef Gates’ efforts to orient the Pentagon to addressing critical needs in Iraq and Afghanistan is a fascinating depiction of the nuts and bolts of bureaucratic politics.

While historians and journalists, for obvious reasons, often focus on the big decisions, how those decisions are implemented is frequently the difference between a policy’s failure and success. The article focused on Gates’ efforts to ensure that units deployed in Iraq and Afghanistan had IED resistant MRAPS and that field commander requests for Predator UAVs were met. But really, it is an example of the kinds of things people at the top need to do to ensure that policies work. Since 9/11 we’ve seen all too many examples of articulated policies that were inadequately implemented.

Read the complete post here.

Countering Jihadi Strategies in the Sub Continent

By Walid Phares

In the May 2009 edition of India and Global Affairs, a Review of geopolitics published in India, I published an article titled "Countering Jihadi Strategies," in which I analyzed the pre and post 9/11 and pre and post Mumbai strategies of the regional Jihadists from Afghanistan, Pakistan to India. I made a number of sugegstions for regional counter strategies.

SWAT Analysis: Rah-e-Rast, Desperate Taliban and Divided Elites

By Animesh Roul

'Swat Analysis’ is a Daily brief on the resurgent Taliban and their safe sanctuaries in Pakistan. The brief will be posted in regular intervals focusing on the developments in Swat province, NWPF and other Taliban hotspots.

Pakistan’s military offensive against Taliban in Swat and Malakand division in Northwest part of the country has entered into a crucial phase. After almost 25 days of skirmish, the Pakistan army and political elites are struggling to cope with the realties of war. While the military fears that it could be losing public support if Swat offensive persists for long, the political leadership seems divided on prevailing situation in Swat and Malakand. Clamoring for troop withdrawal, Political parties like Jamaat-i-Islami, and Tehrik-i-Insaaf have clearly rejected the Army operation at the recently concluded all party conference at Prime Minster’s house. Many smaller parties even threatened to walk out from the APC on the military action clause, quite contrary to what President Asif Ali Zardari believes about the unity of his entire nation behind the ongoing operation against Taliban militants. (Govt ‘lying’ about unanimous APC resolution: JI, 19 May, 2009)

These difference aside, the renamed military operation "Rah-e-Rast" (earlier it was “Rah-e-Haq- 4”) has been making headway, pushing Taliban further into the Swat. The battle now centered around Peochar, Matta, Sulatnwas as the security forces are consolidating their positions to initiate urban style operations (search, cordon and destroy target) in Swat and Buner, and in Lower Dir. In Swat itself, around 4,000 Taliban militants are entrenched and army sources confirmed that Swat Taliban are getting reinforcements from Waziristan, Punjab, neighbouring Afghanistan and from Central Asia. The director general of Inter Services Public Relation (ISPR), Major General Athar Abbas stated that Afghan militants were supplying arms to Pakistani militants. Security forces have also apprehended some militants from Tajikistan in Bajaur Agency while they were traveling to Dir from Bajaur Agency. There are even Arabs and Libyan nationals reportedly detained at Khapakh check post, Mohmand Agency.

The Pakistan military is yet to target Maulana Fazalullah and other Taliban leadership but claimed to have killed his top aides including his brother Fazale Ahad, Liaqat, Fazalur Rehman, Mahboobur Rehman and Maulana Shakoor. Baitullah Mehsud, according to army sources is somewhere in Waziristan and not keeping well.

Desperate Taliban
Nearly 15,000 Pakistani troops are engaged with some 4,000 ragtag, but motivated Taliban militants in Swat. Reports quoting military sources claimed that more than 1000 Taliban and at least 53 troops have been killed in a three-pronged war in the districts of Lower Dir (April 26), Buner (April 28) and Swat (May 8).

And now the Taliban militants are outnumbered and cornered in their own den, they are trying two things at present to stay forceful and relevant at least socially and militarily. They are now forcibly recruiting youths, mostly teenagers to fight against army in Swat in the ongoing war and forcing local people to enter into matrimonial relations with Taliban militants.

Collateral Damage
Like LTTE in Sri Lanka which used human shields (mostly women and children) against the government forces during the just concluded conflict, Taliban militants are using the same tactics to deter attacks from Army. They also prevented civilians from fleeing the area by laying landmines. Around 35 people, including 14 children were killed on May 8 in army artillery fires in Shahdra and Wathke areas of Mingora. Again 11 people including eight children were killed in army missile strikes in Matta on May 11. The rising civilian casualty could well turn the tide in favor of Taliban as locals have been upset with military action and some even threatened to rise against the military. More than 1.45 million people have been displaced across the region since May 02. Early last week, the Mardan Commissioner Khalid Umerzai had informed that 432,000 internally displaced persons (IDPs) have been registered in Mardan and nearby areas so far, and that 55,000 IDPs were residing in the camps in Mardan.

The UN has reportedly compared the refugee situation in Swat with the displacement caused by Rwanda’s (1994) genocide.

Intelligence Transformation: Meeting New Challenges in the Middle East and Beyond

By Michael Jacobson

Yesterday afternoon, the Washington Institute hosted Lt. Gen. (Ret.) James Clapper, the Undersecretary of Defense for Intelligence, as part of a speaker series we've been running since December 2007 with senior US government counterterrorism and intelligence officials. General Clapper offered his perspective on how the US military is adapting to respond to the new threats and challenges the US and its allies are facing. General Clapper also spoke about the impact of intelligence reform on the defense intelligence establishment and on his relationship with the Director of National Intelligence. General Clapper's observations and insights on how the current threat compares to what the US was confronting during the Cold War era were particularly interesting, in light of his 46 years of service in the intelligence field, which included nine years heading the Defense Intelligence Agency and the National Imagery and Mapping Agency (now known as NGA).

Here is an excerpt from his remarks:

"We have, you know, a lot of challenges in . . . both Afghanistan and Pakistan. I was there about six weeks ago . . . it was a real interesting and very useful tour for me, since we did a heavy focus on special operations capabilities and locations. . . . The whole political arrangement there, the terrain, the size of the country, the very undeveloped infrastructure, lines of communication, makes for a very challenging, very daunting environmental situation. . . . My own view is that this is . . . built for a classic counterinsurgency kind of thing. I think we're going to win this on a village-by-village, valley-by-valley basis. And there's . . . potential for success, depending on how we manage the whole spectrum of special operations -- not just taking out high-value individuals or high-value targets, but sort of the nation-building thing, providing security locally in Afghanistan. . . . The old saw about all politics being local really applies."

To read his entire prepared remarks, click here:

The Defeat of the LTTE and Waning Insurgencies

By Douglas Farah

We are facing an unusual time in recent history. Two of the oldest and most successful insurgencies in recent times, the FARC in Colombia and the LTTE (Tamil Tigers) in Sri Lanka, are on the brink of complete military defeat.

Both have lost their most senior and charismatic leader and much of the top command structure, both suffered the effects of top level defections and morale, and both suffered the catastrophic loss of geographic space in which to operate. Both have existed for several decades.

Although neither is completely destroyed (and the FARC retains the capacity to launch military strikes and controls some territory), both will leave lasting legacies for non-state actors, whose repercussions are being felt today and likely will be for years to come.

My assumption is that remnants of the FARC will survive, and not be crushed in a total military defeat like the LTTE. However, more and more combatants will drift away other types of armed activities, and the movement as a Marxist, ideologically-driven movement, will disappear almost as completely.

I hope there are some serious studies going on regarding the lessons learned in these two cases, as well as comparative looks at the factors that let to the sudden reversal of fortunes for these two groups.

Even without benefit of extensive hindsight, one can look at the groups' legacies.

For the LTTE, the lasting legacy is pioneering the use of suicide bombers and suicide belts, which have widely been adopted by radical Islamist groups and others. My full blog is here.

ISC report into 7/7 and Information Clouds

By Roderick Jones

The Intelligence and Security Committee (ISC) in the UK was established by Parliament as part of the 1994 Intelligence Services Act to examine the work of the intelligence and security agencies in the UK.

The ISC was asked to review information, which emerged following the CREVICE trial in April 2007 that Mohammed Siddique KHAN and Shazad TANWEER (two of the four 7/7 bombers) had come to the attention of MI5 during the CREVICE operation. The question bluntly asked was, "If MI5 had come across Mohammed Siddique KHAN and Shazad TANWEER before, why didn't they prevent this outrage?"

The full report of the ISC findings can be found here.

At its heart the report re-states the previous answer to the central question posed - - lack of resources and legal restrictions prevent the kind of large-scale surveillance required to cover all terrorist leads. Individual readers of the report will have to judge whether that is a satisfactory response.

However, one of the most illustrative parts of the whole document is on page 9 where a diagram is published detailing the number of phone-calls assessed as relating to international terrorism, between unique parties, between January 1 and 1 April 2004 (period of the CREVICE investigation). Diagram shown below:

From this enormous bundle of data the report states 4,020 calls were linked to CREVICE - with the vast majority of those eventually assessed as being, "not related to the bomb plot itself, or even the wider facilitation network, and were in fact wholly innocent or irrelevant". What is left is therefore, an interesting piece of contemporary artwork.

While clearly technology can provide an edge in certain circumstances its capabilities and limitations need to be clearly understood. This diagram solely relates to telephone calls, a diagram today would need to include, twitter, IM, VoIP, Email, Facebook email or even in-game chats. The data would form an enormous cloud behind, which plotters could operate.

There isn't a clear solution to this and a number of industries are attempting to penetrate this burgeoning cloud of data to find meaning in the tweets and chirps. One potential important lesson to be drawn from this particular ISC report is that excess data can be used to hide a plot -- this is contrary to the idea of terrorists passing torn paper notes to each other to avoid electronic detection. A 'useless information' bomb could create countless link analysis diagrams that ultimately lead nowhere, hiding the real intent. Information, unlike truth may not in fact set you free.

If you want to comment on this piece go to MetaSecurity where it is re-posted. The idea that the CREVICE operation provided a data-cloud behind, which the 7/7 plotters could operate is being explored.

NEFA Foundation: Q&A With Taliban Media Wing Representative

By Evan Kohlmann

The NEFA Foundation has obtained and produced an edited transcript of an open question-and-answer session with Afghan Taliban media wing spokesman Ahmad Mukhtar that took place several days ago over an Arabic-language Internet chat forum. During the exchange, when asked about the Taliban's stance on the 9/11 attacks, Mukhtar replies, "as he who harms Muslims whether in Afghanistan, Palestine, Iraq or others of Muslim countries, then it is rightful for Muslims too to return the harm like how they harmed them.” Mukhtar was asked, "Has Hezb-e-Islami, under the command of Gulbudeen Hekmatyar, given bayat to the Amir of Believers, Mulla Muhammad Omar Mujahid, or is he carrying [out] Jihad outside of it? And how do you view the Hezb-e-Islami?” He responds, "Hezb-e-Islami, under the leadership of Hekmatyar, did not give bayat to the Amir of Believers…we view him as a brother in belief and faith and we respect him.” And addressing the Muslim Brotherhood, he states, "Regarding the support of some members of the Brotherhood Movement against the Islamic Emirate, [it] is because of their greed to reign and claim positions. Allah has punished them so that they lost life's positions and they have to go back to their religion before they lose the afterlife. Those who wear the symbol of Islam without actions, we ask Allah to protect us from them.”

An edited transcript of Mukhtar's responses can be downloaded from the NEFA Foundation website.

Our New Tiger Problem

By Zachary Abuza

With the confirmation of the death of LTTE leader Vellupillai Prabhakaran, as well as the deaths of nearly all of its leadership, the Sri Lankan government has declared victory. The Tamil Tigers have ceased to be a conventional force. The living embodiment of the movement is no more, and it is hard to fathom the LTTE operating without their charismatic leader. There are still two reasons for concern:

First, the Sri Lankan government has not addressed the lingering grievances of the Tamil minority and has done little to alleviate the systemic and institutional racism in the country. In the Tamil regions that have been under there control for over a year, there has been little done to win hearts and minds by fostering development. Many Tamils believe that the defeat of the LTTE will lead to further violations of their rights. That was a conceit that Prabhakaran always espoused: the LTTE was the vanguard and only defender of Tamil interests. There are many Tamil politicians and leaders who have sought to promote Tamil rights and interests through the ballot box, not suicide bombings. The government must avoid the temptation of triumphalism and work with the Tamil leaders. They have won the war, but are fully capable of losing the peace. They must quickly come to the assistance of the tens of thousands of displaced Tamils.

There are still LTTE remnants that will attack government forces, especially those who are reaching out to the Tamil community. Low-level terrorist tactics should be expected for no other reason than to lead to heavy-handed government responses that will alienate the Tamil community.

But the second cause of concern is the man you have not heard of, Selvarasa Pathmanathan often referred as Kumaran Padmanadan (KP). Pathmanathan continues to head the Tiger’s global operations and is often described in the media as the LTTE spokesman. But he was more importantly the Tiger's chief arms procurement agent. While the LTTE political and military organization in Sri Lankan has been decimated, the international network of the LTTE remains fully in tact. And to be clear, what set the LTTE apart from other terrorist organizations, was the sophistication and breadth of its international operations. Pathmanathan was known to have procured weapons from Bulgaria, China, North Korea, Zimbabwe, Ukraine, and the Czech Republic, to name but a few. Pathmanathan also oversaw the organizations international fundraising, which included the notorious “Tamil Tax” as well as a plethora of legal businesses and criminal enterprises, including large human smuggling operations. In short, Pathmanathan oversaw a multi-million dollar a year operation, whose network of agents spanned the globe.

One should not expect Pathmanathan to fade quietly into retirement, and gently accept the Sri Lankan rout of the LTTE. He was Prabhakaran's closest lieutenant. He will remain committed to the Tamil cause. It will take time to rebuild even a small organization. But, in the mean time, there is a new gun (merchant) for hire.

Obama's Gitmo-to-Va. Uyghur Plan Hits A Wall: Jim Webb

By James Gordon Meek

Over the weekend, the Obama administration's ambitious plan to resettle a small group of Guantanamo Bay detainees in the Virginia suburbs of Washington ran into a wall. Appearing on ABC's "This Week," Sen. Jim Webb said "the answer is no" to the proposal that the former enemy combatants - ethnic Turks from China called Uyghurs - will live in Fairfax, Va.

Up 'til then, the debate over the Uyghurs' fate had been mostly down partisan lines, with Republicans led by Rep. Frank Wolf complaining loudly that no former Gitmo inmates should be incarcerated, put on trial or released inside the U.S. With Virginia Democrat Webb unexpectedly becoming an obstacle, Obama's "contingency operations" are now in peril.

I've also reported in the New York Daily News that many senior counterterror officials believe the half-dozen Uyghurs eyed for release in Virginia have troubling ties to an Al Qaeda-affiliated terror group, the Turkistan Islamic Party (TIP), also known as the East Turkistan Islamic Movement. While few officials worry that the Uyghurs will form a cell or commit future acts of terrorism, they view the precautions they have been readying as a big - though manageable - hassle.

"We'll have 24-7 coverage up on them for years," one top U.S. security official told me. "It's extremely labor-intensive. But if we don't do it, we'll be called idiots if anything bad happens."

So why are lawmakers and counterterror officials fretting about the Uyghurs?

The Gitmo group were mostly nabbed fleeing a TIP terror training camp in eastern Afghanistan during the U.S. invasion following 9/11. Their defense lawyers insist the detainees have gotten the "terrorist" rap by the Communist Chinese government, which oppresses Uyghurs.

But we reported in The News today that the TIP, who ran the Afghan camp, released a jihad video last month in which they praised Al Qaeda-in-Iraq and the Uyghurs' former Afghan hosts, the Taliban. The video was released through an Al Qaeda-affiliated Web site, Al-Fajr, and includes clips showing "mujahadeen brothers" blowing up U.S. military Humvees. The Uyghur jihadis "will cause China to experience what America experienced in Iraq and in Afghanistan," a narrator promises, according to a SITE Intelligence Group translation.

It also probably didn't help when Obama's Treasury Department designated the group's leader, Abdul Haq, as "a member of Al Qaeda's Shura Council" on Apr. 20.

TIP's praise for Al Qaeda in its video, "Persistence and Preparation for Jihad in the Cause of Allah," was in some way payback to Osama Bin Laden's deputy Ayman al-Zawahiri, who has mentioned the Uyghurs' plight in China's East Turkistan region five times in his tapes since 2005, according to IntelCenter. East Turkistan has been included in the context of major jihad struggles Zawahiri discussed, such as Somalia and Chechnya.

On Feb. 22, after excerpts of the forthcoming TIP video began appearing online, Zawahiri released a taped rant that included criticism of the United Nations, which has placed the Uyghur terror group on its list of designated terrorists. He said showing "respect for the principles of the United Nations basically means ruling by other than Shari'ah" and is tantamount to blessing UN-member states' oppression of Muslims, including "China’s control over East Turkistan."

Aside from the growing political opposition to relocating the Uyghurs from Gitmo to a Washington suburb, the biggest roadblock may be the detainees themselves. Multiple sources confirm that some do not even want to live in America. And since no other country will accept them, "the question then becomes, can we force them to leave Cuba?" wondered a U.S. counterterror official.

Hamas, Hezbollah-And the Muslim Brotherhood?

By Douglas Farah

A senior Hezbollah official has now stated publicly for the first time that his organization has been providing Hamas with "every type of support" for a long period of time.

"We have always said that we supported the resistance in Palestine, but we have not mentioned how or given details of such support," Naim Qassem, the deputy leader of the Lebanese organization, said in an interview published by the Financial Times on Wednesday.

"But Egypt has now revealed that we have given military support to Palestine. We have done so for a while, but we have not talked about it," he continued.

It is one of the secrets of the resistance that we don't talk about the details of our support, but suffice to say that we are giving them every type of support that could help the Palestinian resistance. Every type that is possible," he said.

The statements are the clearest yet of the ability and desirability of Shiite Muslim armed groups (Hezbollah) to tactically ally themselves with armed Sunni groups (Hamas). This means the transfer of technology, lessons learned, tactics, intelligence etc. is well advanced among groups that have long and valuable experience in terrorism and irregular warfare.

While the intelligence community for years denied such alliances were possible, they have long been operative. One of the key bridges between the Sunni and Shiite world has been the Muslim Brotherhood.

The Brotherhood has mediated or attempted to mediate a host of disputes between Shiite and Sunnis, including the unsuccessful efforts by the International Muslim Brotherhood's Yousef Nada to negotiate an end to the Iran-Iraq war.

One of the biggest bones on contention between the MB in Iraq and the al Qaeda groups of Zarqawi was the latter's insistence on targeting Shiite groups, while the MB units viewed that as a far lower priority than targeting the Americans.

The understanding of the structure of the Muslim Brotherhood has often been misunderstood in the United States, where it is often viewed as Egyptian organization. The international structure is largely ignored. It is also worth remembering (although it seldom is) that Hamas is, according to its own statutes-article 2-an organic part of the Muslim Brotherhood.

That means that Hamas cannot be acting in this regard without the knowledge of its "mother ship," the MB. My full blog is here.

NEFA Foundation: Oussama Kassir Expert Report and Powerpoint

By Evan Kohlmann

The NEFA Foundation has released copies of the expert witness report and PowerPoint slideshow that I presented during my expert testimony in the recent trial of Swedish national Oussama Kassir in federal court in New York. On May 12, 2009, Kassir was convicted on all eleven counts he faced, including conspiracy to provide material support to Al-Qaida and conspiracy to kill or maim persons overseas. Kassir allegedly served a key role in the notorious online jihad media organization known as the "Islamic Media Center" (IMC). In 2003, the IMC published detailed instructions for how to set up underground terrorist training camps in Western countries--instructions which were attributed to "Abu Khadija", a known alias of Kassir.

The report and Powerpoint slideshow can be downloaded from the NEFA Foundation website.

Pakistan Fissures II: Ethnic Cleavages

By Aaron Mannes

In the Washington Post yesterday Selig Harrison, wrote an op-ed arguing that the Punjabi-Pashtun ethnic conflict underpins the rise of the Taliban. The Punjab is Pakistan’s most powerful province. Home to about half of the country’s population, the Punjab dominates Pakistan politically and is the primary source of manpower for the army. Harrison argues that Pakistan’s Pashtuns are cut off from Afghanistan’s Pashtuns and marginalized. Pashtuns are the largest single ethnicity in Afghanistan, and combined with Pakistan’s Pashtun population would dominate that country. In addition to fostering dissatisfaction among the Pashtuns, the situation creates an incentive for Pakistan to keep Afghanistan weak and off-balance – so that it is less able to foment trouble among Pakistan’s Pashtun population.

The well-informed Pakistan Policy blog takes issue with several of Harrison’s assertions and criticizes Harrisons policy prescription of incorporating the tribal FATA with the “settled” NWFP as a map re-drawing “fetish” of “old white men.”

Pashtun vs. Pashtun
The truth is probably somewhere in between. The Pashtuns have, to a great extent, allied with the Punjabis and serve in Pakistan’s armies in substantial numbers – but, at the same time, Pashtun nationalism has absolutely been a concern for Pakistani elites. The Taliban’s rise could also be understood as settled Pashtuns vs. tribal Pashtuns. This is the oasis people vs. desert people paradigm set forth by the great Arab historian Ibn Khaldun over 600 years ago (this plays into the issue of feudalism raised in my previous post. Many of the settled Pashtuns of the NWFP look towards Islamabad and ally with the Punjabis, while some of the tribes of the FATA seek closer bonds with the Pashtuns on the other side of the Durand Line.

One of Many Ethnic Conflicts
While Pashtun nationalism is a potentially serious challenge to the integrity of the Pakistani state, unfortunately, it is only one of a myriad of ethnic conflicts that shape Pakistani politics.

Read the full post here.

Indonesian Police Arrest 2 Terror Suspects

By Kenneth Conboy

The counter-terrorist unit of the Indonesian police, Special Detachment 88, announced on Monday that they had arrested two suspects allegedly involved in religious violence in Poso, Central Sulawesi, and Ambon, Maluku, between 2000 and 2006. Both were apprehended in East Kalimantan province on 9 May, and both are still being questioned at a police post in that province. The police intend to transfer the pair to Jakarta in the near future.

The police claimed that the two were tied to Jemaah Islamiyah, though paramilitary groups other than JI were largely responsible for the communal violence in Poso and Ambon. Peace deals between Christian and Muslim factions (signed in Ambon in December 2001 and in Poso in 2002) have all but brought violence to an end in both of those regions.

Assessing Progress Against the Global Jihadist Threat

By Michael Jacobson

In April 2009, the U.S. State Department and the European Union released their annual terrorism reports, which paint a varied picture of international counterterrorism efforts to date, with clear progress in some areas and deterioration in others. The reports also illustrate how the rapidly evolving terrorist threat presents an ongoing and significant challenge to the United States and its allies, as terrorists continually adapt to international pressure. One positive aspect of the reports is that Americans and Europeans appear to have similar views on the threat posed by international Islamist terrorism, which may offer opportunities for the Obama administration as it attempts to improve transatlantic ties.

The Threat

According to both the State Department and Europol, the EU's law enforcement organization, the major terrorist threat to the West now emanates from the tribal areas in Pakistan and Afghanistan, where al-Qaeda's leadership is safely ensconced. The numbers released by the National Counterterrorism Center for the State Department's report demonstrate markedly the growth of the terrorist threat within Pakistan. In 2008, at least 1,839 terrorist incidents in Pakistan killed 2,293 people, a dramatic rise from 2007, when 890 incidents claimed 1,340 lives. What may be even more disturbing is the expansion of attacks beyond the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) into other parts of Pakistan. While attacks rose in FATA from 61 to 321, incidents in the North West Frontier Province rose from 28 to 870.

Although the situation in Pakistan is extremely dire, the U.S. government has portrayed al-Qaeda's core as an organization in decline. Usama bin Laden's terrorist group continues to "lose ground, both structurally and in the court of world public opinion," according to the State Department. This echoed the comments of Adm. Dennis Blair, the director of national intelligence, during congressional testimony in February. Admiral Blair noted that in 2008, "al-Qaeda lost significant parts of its command structure. . .in a succession of blows as damaging to the group as any since the fall of the Taliban in late 2001." Some of al-Qaeda's affiliates are also hurting, according to the State Department and EU reports. Al-Qaeda in Iraq (AQI) has been particularly damaged by international efforts and poses far less of a threat today. The capabilities of Jemah Islamiyah, an Indonesian-based organization, have also been markedly reduced through Indonesia's successful counterterrorism campaign.

Both reports make clear, however, that not all al-Qaeda affiliates have been weakened. In Somalia, for example, al-Shabab, an al-Qaeda-linked organization, has "overrun" parts of the country, creating a safe haven for a number of al-Qaeda operatives. Al-Qaeda in Yemen remains a threat and has been able to launch several attacks in the past year, as the government lacks both the political will and capability to crack down effectively on the organization. Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb has also become more dangerous since its 2006 merger with al-Qaeda "central." For example, according to the EU report, the organization conducted more suicide attacks in Algeria in 2008 than it did in the previous year.

To read the rest of the piece, click here.

A New Look at the Af/Pak Crisis

By Douglas Farah

Now that the Afghan/Pakistan crisis if front and center, and the ties between organized crime and the funding of radical Islamist movements are clear, it would be well to understand the origins of this emerging threat and the magnitude of the danger.

One of the best at doing that is a new book by Gretchen Peters, Seeds of Terror: How Heroin is Bankrolling The Taliban and al Qaeda.

I have mentioned the book before, but it is hitting stores this week and provides a clear-eyed view of how we got to this point, and how international heroin trafficking is at the root of the new wave of Taliban advances.

Ms. Peters is a journalist, not an ideologue, and uses her 10 years of experience on the ground in the region to walk readers through myriad ties between the Taliban, al Qaeda and the heroin trade that has allowed the resurgence and spread of a group that was on the verge of complete defeat by the end of 2001. Now they are knocking on the doors of the capital of nuclear state.

It is the best case study to date of the criminal-terrorist nexus that is still so often dismissed in intelligence and senior policy making circles.

The result is not a pretty picture, particularly of the corruption in the Karzai administration, the lack of real progress in dealing with the deep seated social issues and poverty and the overall attractiveness of the drug trade in such dire conditions.

At the same time, the Jamestown Foundation notes the Europol report on the growing connection between the Afghanistan/Pakistan region and the Islamist terrorist threat in Europe. My full blog is here.

Rapprochement Snag: Continued Syrian Support for Jihadis Moving to Iraq

By David Schenker

Following up on Secretary of State Clinton’s announcement on April 25 that “some of the recent suicide bombers [in Iraq] most likely came across the border through Syria,” the Washington Post today ran a story today on Syria’s ongoing jihadi pipeline.

The Post story comes just days after a US delegation headed by NEA A/S Jeffrey Feltman and the NSC’s Daniel Shapiro visited Damascus to try and make some progress on the US-Syrian diplomatic engagement. It’s unclear what was accomplished during this second trip. No doubt, any optimism for progress was dampened by the visit on May 5 to Damascus by Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmedinejad.

During his sojurn in Syria, Ahmedinejad reportedly met with the leaders of ten resident Palestinian terrorist groups. At a joint press conference, in order to lay to rest any speculation about a potential “strategic realignment” away from Tehran, Syrian President Bashar Asad emphasized that the bilateral relationship remained “strategic.”

News of the reinvigorated jihadi pipeline in Syria should come as little surprise. In late April, according to Iran’s Press TV, “Syrian President Bashar al-Assad has warned Obama that Washington will face a crisis in the Middle East if he does not pull US troops out of Iraq.”

At the same time, however, Syria’s renewed efforts to destabilize Iraq undercut the only carrot that Damascus is offering Washington in return for diplomatic rapprochement, i.e, assistance on Iraq. The myth of coincident US and Syrian interest on Iraq was articulated by Syrian Ambassador to Washington Imad Mustapha at MEI on May 1st. According to the account in the Foreign Policy blog:

"He [Mustapha] explained that Syria no longer disagreed with the U.S. about Iraq, that it fully supported an American withdrawal on a responsible timetable and that Syria would do whatever it could to ensure that the withdrawal succeeds and leaves behind a stable Iraq."

Continued Syrian involvement in the jihadi pipeline—a longstanding Syrian Government policy that was confirmed by the U.S. District Court of the District of Columbia in October 2008 when it levied a $414 million dollar civil judgment against Syria for "providing material support and resources to Zarqawi and Al Qaeda in Iraq"—is not going to help the rapprochement with Washington.

Meanwhile, on Friday May 8, the White House announced that it had renewed the IEEPA and SAA sanctions on Syria.

Introducing the book "The Confrontation: Winning the War against Future Jihad"

By Walid Phares

My latest book, The Confrontation: Winning the War against Future Jihad was published in paperback this month. It is the third in a post 9/11 trilogy beginning with Future Jihad: Terrorist Strategies against the West, followed by The War of Ideas: Jihadism against Democracy. The first in this series is an analysis of the past and potential future global strategies by Salafi and Khomeinist Jihadists against their foes worldwide. Future Jihad provided me with opportunities for briefings and interactions with legislators and CT officials on both sides of the Atlantic over the past four years.

The War of Ideas is in short an answer to many questions raised by readers of the first book: along the lines of the 9/11 Commission central question: How come we didn't know we were at war with Jihadists forces and for that long? The second book of this series attempts to explain the multiple campaigns launched by the various Jihadi pressures groups and networks to delay the threat knowledge in the West. I argue that the real war of ideas has been waged by the Salafists, Wahabi, Muslim Brotherhood and others to camouflage their designs and advances for decades.

The third book of the Trilogy, The Confrontation, advances concepts and global strategies to resist, contain then reverse the advances made by the Jihadi forces. It proposes strategic options regarding the identification of the threat, new coalitions, economic strategies, support to democratic revolutions in the Arab and Muslim world, and other guidelines.

I am glad to report that the three books are now being used as textbooks on a number of campuses particularly in strategic and security studies, as well as conflict and terrorism programs. Also, the two first books were selected to be on the Reading lists of the US House of Representatives and the UK House of Commons. The Confrontation (hardcover) was already launched at the European Parliament and in the US Congress. Following is a review authored by David Major, former intelligence officer, a national security analyst and the Director of the Counter Intelligence Center in Virginia. The book review is appearing in several outlets.

Coming Soon To A 'Hood Near You: Gitmo (Ex?)Terrorists

By James Gordon Meek

How would you like your family’s next-door neighbor to be a former Guantanamo Bay inmate who was trained in a military camp in pre-9/11 Afghanistan? Would it matter if they were declared no longer to be an “enemy combatant” by the Pentagon?

That’s the fundamental question that ought to be going through the minds of Northern Virginia residents this week, amid news reports - including my own New York Daily News exclusive today - that a group from Gitmo may soon be making house in the D.C. surburbs. Officials tell The News the ethnic Turk Muslims from China, known as Uyghurs, will be settled in a Uyghur community in Fairfax, Va. - if Team Obama gives the thumbs up.

While Republicans have unarguably been making political hay out of this news - as well as the release of the Bush-era “torture memos” and President Obama’s plan to close Gitmo by January - they are indeed representing the views of many counterterrorism officials by objecting strenuously to plans to resettle a half-dozen former detainees in the D.C. suburbs.

“There are people in the intelligence community who are concerned about the Uyghurs from a security standpoint,” Rep. Pete King (R-L.I.), ranking GOPer on the Homeland Security Committee, told me this week. “They have very real worries.”

Counterterrorism officials I spoke to have expressed concern but no great alarm. Some see a greater threat than others. But at the core of the debate is that it’s not entirely clear how connected the detainees were to a Uyghur terrorist group linked to Al Qaeda, the East Turkestan Islamic Movement, before they were nabbed after 9/11.

“How do you say for sure? You don’t, and that’s the problem,” said one U.S. official briefed on contingency operations involving the Uyghur detainees.

Another matter is whether they grew into hardened jihadis during the seven years they’ve been held at Gitmo, though now in a minimally restrictive camp.

“You don’t know what kind of radicalization happened down there,” said Rep. Frank Wolf (R-Va.), whose district is the spot where U.S. officials are looking to relocate the Gitmo group.

Wolf and King complain Team Obama hasn’t told them much. But other officials insist the members have been regularly briefed on Gitmo plans.

As The News reported today, a sweeping security operation by the FBI and Homeland Security Department is in place to keep a watchful eye on the Uyghurs if they’re released in Virginia. But Wolf said the costs to taxpayers of the surveillance will be high for a decade or more, during which time the Uyghurs may become determined to attack the Red Chinese government.

“Will they one day try to kill the Chinese ambassador?” Wolf wonders. “You’d have to do (surveillance) forever.”

“We are not as much worried,” said Alim Seytoff, general secretary of the Uyghur American Association in Washington. “If the Uyghurs (at Gitmo) are released, we will welcome them.”

Bank Secrecy and Compliance Officer Clearances

By Douglas Farah

Brett Wallace, who generously does the CTB links and helps keep us running, has written an interesting graduate studies paper Banks Are Not Mere Bystanders_Wallace.pdf, drawing on his own research as well as the thoughts and experiences of several CTB contributors on the need to give bank compliance officers clearances to help in tracking the flow of terrorist funds.

He argues that banks have financial information about their customers, but they lack the intelligence and criminal record information that law enforcement is privy to. Law enforcement may have substantial intelligence and investigative data, but lack the raw financial records of their targets. Essentially, the problem lies in information exchange, and establishing a framework of partnership that produces actionable financial intelligence without compromising either privacy or national security...the best way to address counterterrorism finance and get closer to that holy grail of cooperation is to grant security clearances to bank compliance officers. Enjoy.

The Ongoing Repercussions from the Holy Land Foundation Trial

By Douglas Farah

The Investigative Project brings news of the first clear official FBI explanation of why the Bureau has cut off its work with CAIR, the premier legacy Muslim Brotherhood organization in the United States.

In an April 28, 2009 letter to Sen. Jon Kyl a senior FBI official formally said what the FBI (and most other US government entities) have been so strangely reluctant to say:

In the Holy Land Foundation trial:
evidence was introduced that demonstrated a relationship among CAIR, individual CAIR founders (including its current President Emeritus and its Executive Director) and the Palestine Committee. Evidence was also introduced that demonstrated a relationship between the Palestine Committee and HAMAS, which was designated as a terrorist organization in 1995. In light of that evidence the FBI has suspended all formal contacts between CAIR and the FBI.

The FBI's decision to suspend formal contacts was not intended to reflect a wholesale judgment of the organization and its entire membership. Nevertheless, until we can resolve whether there continues to be a connection between CAIR or its executives and HAMAS, the FBI does not view CAIR as an appropriate liaison partner. [Emphasis added].

Well, finally!

Now, what about all the other MB legacy organizations that continue the charade of democratic participation and moderation? So far, nothing, which means that CAIR's role may diminish but the group of MB organizations (and it is a SMALL group that occupy all the leadership positions of the affiliated entities) will pick up the slack. My full blog is here.

Ahmadinejad's Abrupt Postponement of his Brazil Trip

By Douglas Farah

Iran's president Ahmadinejad has abruptly postponed his much heralded trip to Brazil, due this week, with neither side anxious to give any explanation.

Ahmadinejad has long tried to visit Brazil, and, until this most recent trip was finally accepted, had been politely rebuffed because of Iran's international pariah states and state sponsorship of terrorism, including attacks carried out in Latin America.

Brazil, Latin America's largest economy by far, and aspiring to be taken seriously as a major player on the world stage, could not be bothered.

When Ahmadinejad was visiting the neighborhood and wanting to drop by, Brazil's president Lula always found that he had no space in his very busy agenda to accomodate the request. But Lula had relented, given Iran's undeniable influence in the region. Until this sudden snafu.

It should be remembered that Brazil has explicitly refused to sell Venezuela nuclear technology because of Venezuela's insistence that Iran be involved in the technology transfer.

Lula has rebuffed Chavez and Iran in other small ways in the past, but seemed prepared for an exchange of state visits, given Iran's growing clout and the seeming inability of the United States or its allies to offer a viable strategy for containment.

The embrace of Ahmadinejad was drawing internal criticism even from Lula supporters. As the article notes, Acceptance by Lula, the leader of the Latin America’s biggest economy, puts Iran on a new diplomatic plane in the region. My full blog is here.

NEFA Foundation: TIP Accuses Chinese and Pakistani Media of "Lies and Accusations"

By Evan Kohlmann

The NEFA Foundation has obtained a new communiqué from the Turkestan Islamic Party (TIP) titled, "The Chinese and Pakistani Media are Full of Lies and Accusations." In the statement, dated May 1, 2009, the TIP warns, "The American government announced last month that the Turkistan Islamic Party is a terrorist group, and will be punished by freezing its finances (money) in America. It's [also] mentioned in the statement that the American government kowtows in front of the Chinese government especially in the cases of Afghanistan and Pakistan, and that is the reason the Chinese government forced them to [make] these declarations. The [TI] Party, Allah-willing, is capable of a practical reaction to any country in the world if they dare to arrest any member of the group and hand them to China.”

An English translation of the TIP statement can be downloaded from the NEFA Foundation website.

NEFA Foundation Update on Goose Creek, SC Car Stop Case

By Madeleine Gruen

The NEFA Foundation has released an update of its "Target: America" report on the August 2007 Goose Creek, South Carolina car stop. This update includes new information introduced in Yousef Samir Megahed's criminal trial.

In the course of a routine traffic stop, police discovered explosive materials in the trunk of a car that was occupied by two Egyptian nationals who were students at the University of South Florida.

The driver of the car, Ahmed Abdellatif Sherif Mohamed, pleaded guilty to material support of terrorism and was sentenced in December 2008 to 15 years in federal prison. On April 3, 2009, the passenger, Youssef Samir Megahed, was acquitted of the charges against him by a federal criminal jury. Megahed was re-arrested on April 6, 2009 by ICE officials. He remains in detention, pending a hearing in immigration court.

The full report can be viewed at the NEFA Foundation web site.

NEFA Exclusive Interview with Haji Muslim Khan, Chief Spokesman of Tehrik-e-Taliban Swat Valley (Pakistan) (Part 2 of 2)

By Evan Kohlmann

The NEFA Foundation has released part 2 of its exclusive interview with Haji Muslim Khan, the chief spokesman for Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) in the restive Swat Valley. During the second part of the interview, Khan addressed the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks on the United States and the Taliban view regarding future terrorist attacks inside U.S. borders. Regarding 9/11, according to Khan, "We can't tell [if] this plan [was] from Jews or from Afghanistan. [Even] if this is from Afghanistan, so you have killed how many? ...Regardless how many million they killed on 9/11, how many millions did they kill in Afghanistan, the USSR? And how many million did they kill in south and in Yugoslavia--everywhere. But they're thinking of only the 9/11 attack." Khan insisted that because U.S.-backed forces have "killed civilians here, so they [the mujahideen] must attack there, attack in the United States."

The video can be viewed on the NEFA Foundation website.

The Home Office Announces the Names of "Hate Promoters" Banned From the U.K.

By Madeleine Gruen

The Home Office announced today the names of sixteen out of twenty-two individuals who are banned from entering the U.K. The Home Office deemed these individuals a threat to public security because of their record of promoting hate.

Six of the twenty-two were not mentioned in the announcement because it is "considered not in the public interest to disclose their names."

Yunis Al-Astal

While the Home Office should be commended for taking a stand against the purveyors of hate, even if symbolically, the list itself is puzzling. Some named are certainly influential radicalizing agents who are able to incite acts of violence. For example, Yunis Al-Astal, whose name is one of the first on the Home Office list, is a cleric and a Hamas member of the Palestinian Parliament. Al-Astal refers to Jews as the "brothers of apes and pigs" who should "taste the bitterness of death." He has said that it is the duty of women to die as suicide bombers.

Abdul Alim Musa, the American Islamist extremist leader of As-Sabiqun, is also worthy of a spot on the list. (For more information about Abdul Alim Musa and As-Sabiqun, see article by Madeleine Gruen & Frank Hyland, originally published on the Counterterrorism Blog).

Several other Americans were included, such as Don Black, the former Grand Wizard of the Ku Klux Klan, who runs the white supremacist web site "Stormfront" from his home in Florida. Black's efforts concentrate on establishing white supremacy in the United States. Fellow supremacist Eric Gliebe is also named, as is Michael Savage, the ultra-conservative host of Talk Radio Network's program "Savage Nation."

Kansas-based hate preacher Fred Phelps and his daughter, Shirley, appear on the list. The Phelps' demonstrations against homosexuals draw a handful of participants and could be described as side-show circus acts.

Fred Phelps

Joint Counter Narco-Terrorism Successes in Afghanistan

By Michael Braun

NBC Nightly News reported yesterday evening (May 4, 2009) on a successful counter narco-terrorism operation involving U.S. Army Special Forces working shoulder-to-shoulder with a U.S. Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA) Foreign-deployed Advisory and Support Team (FAST), Afghan Army Commandos and Counter-Narcotics Police/Afghanistan (CNPA) officers. Notice that I used the term 'counter narco-terrorism operation' rather than 'counter-narcotics operation', because in Afghan virtually every aspect of the drug trade is unequivocally linked to the Taliban and the insurgency.

I've reported before on a 2002 study by Professor James Fearon of Stanford University, which clearly paints an accurate picture of the important role the opium and heroin trade plays in the success, or failure, of the Taliban. Dr. Fearon studied 128 insurgencies and civil wars from 1945 to 2000 and found that they lasted on average about 8.5 years as I recall. He found that 17 of the 128 lasted about five times longer than the other 111, somewhere between 40 to 50 years. The common thread among the 17 was that anti-government forces all generated contraband revenue, most often through their involvement in one or more aspects of the global drug trade.

The estimates of just how much contraband revenue the Taliban generates from their involvement in the Afghan based opium and heroin trade varies widely, but falls somewhere between $100 million to $500 million dollars annually. The reality of the situation is that figure could be even greater. The bottom line: we are not getting out of Afghanistan until we defeat the Taliban or bring them to a negotiated peace; and we will not defeat the Taliban or bring them to the peace table until we get the narcotics trade in check in Afghanistan.

So how do we fight 21st century warfare in Afghanistan, the quintessential example of aymetric warfare, and win? It can be witnessed in the NBC Nightly New episode last evening. The raid started out as a bust, but quickly turned into a resounding success when the narcotics agents, both DEA and Afghan, persisted with thier search and found over three tons of morphine base buried behind one of the compounds that was identified by a DEA source of information. Our military are not the experts when it comes to counter-narcotics or counter narco-terrorism operations designed to identify and bring to justice those responsible for the opium and heroin trade in Afghanistan, or anywhere else for that matter. Nor should they be; they've got more than enough on their plate. However, U.S. Special Forces, the experts in fighting unconventional warfare, teamed with DEA Special Agents who our Special Forces have trained, make up a very formidable force that can, when coupled with our Afghan partners, significantly contribute to defeating the Taliban.

These joint teams have reportedly been involved in a number of operations over the past few months similar to the one covered by last evening's NBC Nightly News episode. Large caches of drugs and clandestine laboratories have been destroyed as a result of the raids, and large caches of weapons, including suicide vests and IED bomb making materials, have also been located right along side the drugs. I've also read that over 60 Taliban have been killed while defending these locations. What is not being reported is that the DEA Special Agents and their partners are undoubtedly collecting tremendous evidence that will certainly lead to complex criminal drug conspiracy indictments in the United States and in Afghanistan. Those responsible for this activity will ultimtley pay a steep price, if they haven't already paid with their lives.

I couldn't help but notice the determination etched on the faces of the DEA Special Agents in the video, something I witnessed many times over the 23 years I spent in the Agency. They were on the hunt, and hunting is what DEA Special Agents live for, whether they're searching for a drug cache ouside Kabul, Afghanistan, or taking down a methamphetamine laboratory outside Cabool, Missouri. This is what DEA brings to our warfighters in Afghanistan, subject matter experts who possess a unique tradecraft honed by many years of success at identifying and dismantleing the world's most notorious drug trafficking cartels from top to bottom. The DEA cannot operate in Afghanistan without the support of our U.S. Military, and our military will not succeed unless they take on the narcotics trade in a meaningful way.

It looks to me like we're headed in the right direction.

Swat Analysis: War, Disintegration and other Narratives

By Animesh Roul

'Swat Analysis’ is a Daily brief on the resurgent Taliban and their safe sanctuaries in Pakistan. The brief will be posted in regular intervals focusing on the developments in Swat province, NWPF and other Taliban hotspots.

The war between security forces and Taliban militants in the restive North West Frontier Province (NWFP) continues unabated, as the controversial peace deal in Swat valley lies in tatters due to the continued military actions against Taliban in Buner and Dir. The prevailing deteriorating situation in Pakistan exacerbates fear of disintegration of the South Asian country. Under severe International criticism for its inept handling of Taliban issues, Islamabad administration has now been resorting to a two-pronged strategy: threatening to step up the already initiated military offensive against Taliban and desperately trying to keep the dialogue option open with Islamists to usher peace in the region.

Tehreek-e-Nifaz-e-Shariat-e-Muhammadi (TNSM) chief Sufi Muhammad had vowed to bring peace in Swat valley in return for the establishment of Sharia courts. However, Sufi has now reportedly rejected the Darul Qaza appellate court set up by the NWFP government, blaming the NWFP government of unilateral action in establishing the Darul Qaza and has acted against the spirit of a meeting at Timergara, the main town of Dir (May01) on military operations in Malakand and modalities for a possible Taliban ceasefire ahead.

Muslim Khan, the Taliban spokesman has threatened that the Taliban fighters “would now attack security forces and government figures everywhere.”

Taliban Turbulence:
Brigadier Fayyaz Mehmood Qamar, in-charge of Buner operation, was confident of completing the ongoing operations within a week. According to him, Taliban fighters are consisting of local militants as well as many Uzbeki fighters.

The military operation in Lower Dir has successfully been completed on April 28, as per the Pakistan Army.

With their strategy of Kidnapping and ambush very much intact, Taliban militants have destroyed a girls’ high school in Ningolai area in Kabal, targeted a power station with rockets in Mingora and attempting number of suicide strikes over the weekend. The Tehrik-e-Taliban Swat has claimed the responsibility for the killing of two security men in Khwazakhela area on May 03.

In Buner, the epicenter of battle, Pakistan security forces involved in the operation, claimed to have killed nearly 80 militants, including a leader of the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), identified as Khalil, a.k.a. Alam Buneri in the weeklong battle. However, Muslim Khan refuted the reports of Buneri’s death. Security force personnel have foiled as many as 27 suicide missions in and out of Buner.

Taliban militants have been resorting to mass looting and vandalizing acts in Buner and adjoining areas. At least three Banks were looted and militants have decamped with money and other goods from Allied Bank at Tor Warsak, the United Bank in Jiwar and the Habib Bank’s branch at Bazargai on May 03. In contrast to these looting incidents, late in April, the Taliban in Swat have reportedly announced to reform the banking system and journalism in the areas they control.

Fears of Disintegration:
The Taliban’s resurgence brings two major concerns for the international community: Safety of Nuclear and missile arsenals and the ultimate disintegration of Pakistan. Arguably, the country has virtually been pushed to the verge of disintegration by allowing Taliban to rule over Swat and in large part of NWFP with Islamic laws in place. The collapse of the Pakistani government would give enough opportunity to Taliban and Al Qaeda elements to take control of Pakistan’s nuclear and missile arsenals.

Caught in Crossfire:
According to Geo TV news, the mass migration of civilians in Kagra and other parts of Buner are on the rise amid fresh battles between government forces and Taliban militants. So far thousands of displaced families have been shifted in refugee camps established in different districts of NWFP. The Taliban, in an apparent effort to defend against advancing security forces, have reportedly held over 2,000 people as human shields. Non governmental agencies working in Lower Dir have reported that about 70,000 people have been displaced within the district.

Timeline:
•May 05: Suicide bomber killed at least seven people including five security personnel and two children in an attack on Bara Qadeem checkpoint near Peshawar. Nineteen persons were wounded in attack.
•May 02: Sixteen Taliban and two soldiers were killed when about 100 Taliban militants attacked a security post in Spinal Tangi in the Mohmand Agency (FATA).
•May 02: Five Taliban militants, including two key commanders, were killed in fighting with the Security Forces (SFs) in Charbagh of Swat District.

NEFA Foundation Report: "Shabaab al-Mujahideen - Migration and Jihad in the Horn of Africa."

By Evan Kohlmann

The NEFA Foundation has released a new report that I have written titled, "Shabaab al-Mujahideen: Migration and Jihad in the Horn of Africa." The report is a comprehensive analysis of the Shabaab al-Mujahideen ("Mujahideen Youth") Movement in Somalia, including sub-chapters on "The Early Years - Al-Ittihad al-Islami (AIAI) and 'Blackhawk Down'"; "Ethiopia and the Ogaden War (1993-1997)"; "The Islamic Courts Union (ICU)"; "Rise of the Shabaab al-Mujahideen Movement"; "The Current Status of Shabaab and its Islamist Rivals"; "The Role of Foreign Fighters"; "Shabaab's Propaganda Strategy and Media Infrastructure"; and, "Shabaab al-Mujahideen and the Issue of Ocean Piracy".

The report can be downloaded from the NEFA Foundation website.

Gemstones and the Terrorist Financial Infrastructure

By Douglas Farah

My CTB colleague Animesh Roul has just published an interesting piece on the Taliban's use of gemstones in its financial structure. This has been, as my other CTB colleague Dennis Lormel and I can both attest, from different points of view, a long time subject of debate in the IC and law enforcement communities.

What is striking about the piece is not just the Taliban's use of emeralds, but the use of gemstones going back many years, to the time of the initial jihad against the Soviets. Not only does the Taliban know how to mine, albeit at a rudimentary level, but it knows how to sell the stones on the market.

This is one of the reasons (and there are many, as Dennis and I have debated) I found the information on the use of diamonds credible was precisely that-the Taliban and radical Islamist groups had a long familiarity with the trade, and how to engage in it successfully. It was not something they were dabbling in with no prior experience or expertise.

One thing of significant importance (and which had not developed at the time of my reporting on diamonds and al Qaeda) is the emergence of both Dubai and Ras al Khaimah (two of the seven emirates of the United Arab Emirates, one of only three governments to recognize the Taliban when it was in power the first time) as leading diamond markets and gemstone centers.

This means that Taliban and its friends and allies have a nearby, friendly market for their products, and a way to move them virtually undetected into the world market.

This is no small thing. Prior to this (circa 9/11) the diamonds had to be moved from West Africa to Brussels and, later, Lebanon, in order to be sold. That left more of a traceable trail, and involved intermediaries that were not entirely reliable. Those vulnerabilities are now lessened.

This, to me, one of the greatest dangers of the new world. Self-financing, non-state armed groups that control "honeypots" of resources that make them largely invulnerable to outside influences and pressures.

When a radicalized group becomes financially autonomous it is at is most dangerous. My full blog is here.

U.S. Must Work to Prevent Radicalization

By Matthew Levitt

Writing in the Indianapolis Star, Tim Roemer and Lorne Craner, members of The Washington Institute's Presidential Task Force on Confronting the Ideology of Radical Extremism, highlight the need to focus not just on violent extremism but on the radical extremist ideologies that foster acts of violence. Here is an excerpt:

Radicalization is a process with identifiable stages that can be interrupted. Yet U.S. policy until now has been defined by an approach that focuses only on violent extremism -- and combating it through primarily military means. Far too little has been done in the 71/2 years after Sept. 11 to counter the ideology and prevent the still-nonviolent recruit from taking the final step toward detonation.

To break the radicalization cycle, the United States and its allies must engage in a competition of ideas for the would-be "radicalizer.'' The likely target is al-Qaida, with its global propaganda efforts, or influential but independent extremist clerics, or low-level recruiters. As in Iraq, cultivating such alternatives will require empowering mainstream Muslims in their efforts to provide hopeful, practical alternatives to jihadist ideology. It also will require substantial investment in rejuvenating efforts to encourage prosperity, reform and democracy in Arab countries.

Tim Roemer is president of the Center for National Policy and Lorne Craner is president of the International Republican Institute. Their comments are based on the research and finding of The Washington Institute Presidential Task Force Study Rewriting the Narrative: an Integrated Strategy for Counterradicalization. Their complete op-ed is available here.

Exploitation and Extortion: Assessing Pakistan Taliban's Economic Lifeline

By Animesh Roul

Originally published as "Gems, Timber and Jiziya: Pakistan's Taliban Harness Resources to Fund Jihad", Terrorism Monitor , Vol.7 (11), April 30, 2009.

I just published one article on the Taliban resurgence in Pakistan’s lawless region and their ever increasing financial strength through large scale exploitation of natural resources and extortion money collected from minority religious communities in the name of protection money.

Here is an excerpt from the piece:

...The multiple sources of Taliban income make the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) a resilient and well-armed group with an agenda of turning Pakistan into an Islamic state. Observers fear the wealth at the disposal of Taliban will enable them to sustain their jihad activities in Pakistan and beyond.

The exploitation of northwest Pakistan’s natural resources for organizational revenues started in April 2008, when Taliban militants took over the Ziarat marble quarry, a white marble mine in the Mohmand tribal district. Before the arrival of the Taliban, Islamabad had planned to modernize the marble mines at Ziarat as part of an effort to increase marble and granite exports to $500 million per year by 2013. Roughly one million tons of marble are extracted from FATA every year (Daily Times [Lahore], July 20, 2008). Since the Taliban takeover, the quarry has brought the Taliban tens of thousands of dollars. Buoyed by this success, the TTP began eying the emerald deposits of Swat.

Mullah Fazlullah, the leader of the Swat-based Tehrik Taliban Swat (TTS), has been largely responsible for this economic activity in the NWFP. Fazlullah, the son-in-law of TNSM leader Sufi Muhammad, now controls these mining activities in Swat and adjoining places. According to one report, the gemstones are sold quickly at below market prices and smuggled to the Indian city of Jaipur (capital of Rajasthan) and thereafter transported to Bangkok, Switzerland and Israel (Sunday Telegraph, April 4). A BBC report indicated that emerald prices range from $1,000 to more than $100,000 for a cut stone, depending on the size and quality (BBC News, March 24).


Another lucrative source of income for the Taliban is Swat’s forests. The symbiotic tie between Taliban militants and the Timber mafia in Swat and nearby Dir is no secret. Large-scale illegal cutting of the region’s pine forests began simultaneously with the 2007 Taliban offensive in the area and the flight of most of the people living in the forests (Dawn, March 22). Taliban militants have been involved in the widespread cutting of the thick pine forests and apple orchards of Malam Jaba, Fatehpur, Miandam and Lalko, often in collusion with the mafia elements that cause enormous environmental damage to the region while making immense profits (The News, April 13).

Taliban financing efforts have reached the Orakzai Agency of FATA, situated close to Swat and Bajaur Agency, the site of heavy fighting between the Taliban and government forces in recent months. Taliban militants have demolished houses belonging to the minority Sikh community and confiscated their property in the Ferozkhel area of Orakzai Agency after they failed to pay the negotiated amount of 15 million rupees to the Taliban as jiziya—the poll tax levied on non-Muslim minorities living under Islamic rule as sanctioned by Shari’a. The houses were destroyed at the behest of Taliban commander Hakimullah Mahsud, the Taliban head in the Orakzai Agency and a close aide of TTP chief Baitullah Mahsud (The Nation [Islamabad], April 30). Earlier in April, Taliban militants demanded 50 million rupees a year as jiziya. To enforce their demands they held local Sikh leader Sardar Saiwang Singh captive and occupied a number of Sikh-owned houses (ANI, April 15; Daily Times, April 16).

For Full text of the Article, See Here.

New Ties Between Venezuela and Iran, And Hezbollah's Growing Presence

By Douglas Farah

Two related items that should give the Obama administration pause as it seeks ways to engage Venezuela's Hugo Chávez and other countries in Venezuela's sphere of influence (Bolivia, Nicaragua, Ecuador primarily).

The first is the new Memorandum of Understanding signed between the militaries of Venezuela and Iran. According to the official FARS News Agency, Iran's defense minister, in a visit to Caracas, "underlined Tehran's all-out efforts to help Venezuela promote its defense capabilities and bolster its power of deterrence through bilateral Memoranda of Understanding (MoUs) on military cooperation."

Chávez, for his part, stated that "The Bolivarian and the Islamic Revolutions have a lot in common and these commonalities have consolidated the two countries' bonds."

Stressing that Iran has a special place in Venezuela's foreign policy, Chavez referred to the two countries' armies, and underlined that armed forces of the two countries should be reinforced in a bid to help strengthen sustainable security.

Secretary of State Clinton, as the Washington Post recently noted, has been talking about improving relations with Venezuela while remaining studiously silent on Chávez's increasingly bold attacks on the legitimate opposition (something Bolivia's Evo Morales is imitating).

It should be quite clear that Chávez values the ties to Iran far more than he does potential ties to Washington, and the recent MOU with Iran makes that clear.

At the same time, 17 people were arrested in the small Caribbean island (and Dutch territory) of Curacao on charges of transporting several tons of cocaine and sending some of the money to Hezbollah.

"We have been able to establish that this group has relations with international criminal organizations that have connections with the Hezbollah," prosecutor Ludmila Vicento said. My full blog is here.

Pakistan Fissures I: Hating the Manor-Born

By Aaron Mannes

The New York Times published a very important article that explained how the Taliban used class divides to take control of the Swat Valley. The lion’s share of the coverage of Pakistan seems to focus on the increasing sway of the Taliban and their ilk. All of this is unfortunately true, but Pakistan is riven with complex internal divisions that make it vulnerable to extremists. These divisions need to be properly understood if there is any hope to arresting the country’s steady slide into chaos.

According to the article, about four dozen landlords dominated Swat Valley. The Taliban organized peasant militias who then began pressuring the landlords. When the landlords fled, the peasants were rewarded with access to resources controlled by the absentee landholders.

This social divide is not unique to the Swat Valley. It prevails throughout rural Pakistan. Landlord may be a misnomer. They are more akin to feudal lords (within Pakistan they are referred to as the “feudals.”)

Read the full post here.