Assessing Progress Against the Global Jihadist Threat

By Michael Jacobson

In April 2009, the U.S. State Department and the European Union released their annual terrorism reports, which paint a varied picture of international counterterrorism efforts to date, with clear progress in some areas and deterioration in others. The reports also illustrate how the rapidly evolving terrorist threat presents an ongoing and significant challenge to the United States and its allies, as terrorists continually adapt to international pressure. One positive aspect of the reports is that Americans and Europeans appear to have similar views on the threat posed by international Islamist terrorism, which may offer opportunities for the Obama administration as it attempts to improve transatlantic ties.

The Threat

According to both the State Department and Europol, the EU's law enforcement organization, the major terrorist threat to the West now emanates from the tribal areas in Pakistan and Afghanistan, where al-Qaeda's leadership is safely ensconced. The numbers released by the National Counterterrorism Center for the State Department's report demonstrate markedly the growth of the terrorist threat within Pakistan. In 2008, at least 1,839 terrorist incidents in Pakistan killed 2,293 people, a dramatic rise from 2007, when 890 incidents claimed 1,340 lives. What may be even more disturbing is the expansion of attacks beyond the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) into other parts of Pakistan. While attacks rose in FATA from 61 to 321, incidents in the North West Frontier Province rose from 28 to 870.

Although the situation in Pakistan is extremely dire, the U.S. government has portrayed al-Qaeda's core as an organization in decline. Usama bin Laden's terrorist group continues to "lose ground, both structurally and in the court of world public opinion," according to the State Department. This echoed the comments of Adm. Dennis Blair, the director of national intelligence, during congressional testimony in February. Admiral Blair noted that in 2008, "al-Qaeda lost significant parts of its command structure. . .in a succession of blows as damaging to the group as any since the fall of the Taliban in late 2001." Some of al-Qaeda's affiliates are also hurting, according to the State Department and EU reports. Al-Qaeda in Iraq (AQI) has been particularly damaged by international efforts and poses far less of a threat today. The capabilities of Jemah Islamiyah, an Indonesian-based organization, have also been markedly reduced through Indonesia's successful counterterrorism campaign.

Both reports make clear, however, that not all al-Qaeda affiliates have been weakened. In Somalia, for example, al-Shabab, an al-Qaeda-linked organization, has "overrun" parts of the country, creating a safe haven for a number of al-Qaeda operatives. Al-Qaeda in Yemen remains a threat and has been able to launch several attacks in the past year, as the government lacks both the political will and capability to crack down effectively on the organization. Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb has also become more dangerous since its 2006 merger with al-Qaeda "central." For example, according to the EU report, the organization conducted more suicide attacks in Algeria in 2008 than it did in the previous year.

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