SWAT Analysis: Rah-e-Rast, Desperate Taliban and Divided Elites

By Animesh Roul

'Swat Analysis’ is a Daily brief on the resurgent Taliban and their safe sanctuaries in Pakistan. The brief will be posted in regular intervals focusing on the developments in Swat province, NWPF and other Taliban hotspots.

Pakistan’s military offensive against Taliban in Swat and Malakand division in Northwest part of the country has entered into a crucial phase. After almost 25 days of skirmish, the Pakistan army and political elites are struggling to cope with the realties of war. While the military fears that it could be losing public support if Swat offensive persists for long, the political leadership seems divided on prevailing situation in Swat and Malakand. Clamoring for troop withdrawal, Political parties like Jamaat-i-Islami, and Tehrik-i-Insaaf have clearly rejected the Army operation at the recently concluded all party conference at Prime Minster’s house. Many smaller parties even threatened to walk out from the APC on the military action clause, quite contrary to what President Asif Ali Zardari believes about the unity of his entire nation behind the ongoing operation against Taliban militants. (Govt ‘lying’ about unanimous APC resolution: JI, 19 May, 2009)

These difference aside, the renamed military operation "Rah-e-Rast" (earlier it was “Rah-e-Haq- 4”) has been making headway, pushing Taliban further into the Swat. The battle now centered around Peochar, Matta, Sulatnwas as the security forces are consolidating their positions to initiate urban style operations (search, cordon and destroy target) in Swat and Buner, and in Lower Dir. In Swat itself, around 4,000 Taliban militants are entrenched and army sources confirmed that Swat Taliban are getting reinforcements from Waziristan, Punjab, neighbouring Afghanistan and from Central Asia. The director general of Inter Services Public Relation (ISPR), Major General Athar Abbas stated that Afghan militants were supplying arms to Pakistani militants. Security forces have also apprehended some militants from Tajikistan in Bajaur Agency while they were traveling to Dir from Bajaur Agency. There are even Arabs and Libyan nationals reportedly detained at Khapakh check post, Mohmand Agency.

The Pakistan military is yet to target Maulana Fazalullah and other Taliban leadership but claimed to have killed his top aides including his brother Fazale Ahad, Liaqat, Fazalur Rehman, Mahboobur Rehman and Maulana Shakoor. Baitullah Mehsud, according to army sources is somewhere in Waziristan and not keeping well.

Desperate Taliban
Nearly 15,000 Pakistani troops are engaged with some 4,000 ragtag, but motivated Taliban militants in Swat. Reports quoting military sources claimed that more than 1000 Taliban and at least 53 troops have been killed in a three-pronged war in the districts of Lower Dir (April 26), Buner (April 28) and Swat (May 8).

And now the Taliban militants are outnumbered and cornered in their own den, they are trying two things at present to stay forceful and relevant at least socially and militarily. They are now forcibly recruiting youths, mostly teenagers to fight against army in Swat in the ongoing war and forcing local people to enter into matrimonial relations with Taliban militants.

Collateral Damage
Like LTTE in Sri Lanka which used human shields (mostly women and children) against the government forces during the just concluded conflict, Taliban militants are using the same tactics to deter attacks from Army. They also prevented civilians from fleeing the area by laying landmines. Around 35 people, including 14 children were killed on May 8 in army artillery fires in Shahdra and Wathke areas of Mingora. Again 11 people including eight children were killed in army missile strikes in Matta on May 11. The rising civilian casualty could well turn the tide in favor of Taliban as locals have been upset with military action and some even threatened to rise against the military. More than 1.45 million people have been displaced across the region since May 02. Early last week, the Mardan Commissioner Khalid Umerzai had informed that 432,000 internally displaced persons (IDPs) have been registered in Mardan and nearby areas so far, and that 55,000 IDPs were residing in the camps in Mardan.

The UN has reportedly compared the refugee situation in Swat with the displacement caused by Rwanda’s (1994) genocide.