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POSTS ON ISRAEL-HAMAS WAR

POSTS ON 2008 MUMBAI ATTACK

Counterterrorism Blog Panels:

Reforming U.S. Counter-Terrorism Assistance Programs, Feb. 12

The 2008 Mumbai Attacks, Dec. 4

Future of Turkey-U.S. Strategic Partnership, May 19

Iran & U.S.: Outlook for Next Decade? April 15

Compañeros de Armas ("Friends in Arms"): Chavez, FARC & South America, March 19

Meta-Terror: Terrorism & the Virtual World, Feb. 29

Evolution of US Counterterrorism Policy, Feb. 12

Terrorism Litigation After Boim Decision, Jan. 28

Holy Land Foundation & Muslim Brotherhood, Dec. 11, 2007
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July 2008 Posts and August 2008 Posts

Contributing Experts

Douglas Farah, Editor

Steven Emerson & The Investigative Project on Terrorism
Dennis Lormel
Bill West
Evan Kohlmann
Michael Cutler
Victor Comras
Michael Kraft
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Dr. Walid Phares
Daveed Gartenstein-Ross
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Animesh Roul
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Madeleine Gruen
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Andrew Cochran,
Founder & Editor Emeritus

EXPERTS' ARCHIVES & BIOS

Recent Posts

The Return of IIRO?
"Jihobbyists" No More: English-Speaking Western Jihadists Coming of Age
Indonesia Counter-Terrorism Raids Continue
Hezbollah's Penance--Hizballah works to rebuild its Tarnished Image
India’s strategic role in countering Jihadism
Closing Loopholes: Another Vital Aspect of Sanctions on Iran
The Unraveling of Hugo Chávez and His Terrorist Ties
Dinner in Damascus: What Did Iran Ask of Hizballah?
The Internationalization of the fight against the Jihadists
"Threat from Jamaat-ul Mujahideen Bangladesh": ICG Report

Experts' Books

Walid Phares: The Confrontation and "The War of Ideas: Jihadism against Democracy" and “Future Jihad: Terrorist Strategies Against America”

Michael Kraft & Yonah Alexander (Editors): "Evolution of U.S. Counterterrorism Policy"

Douglas Farah & Zachary Abuza in Countering the Financing of Terrorism

Douglas Farah: "Merchant of Death" and "Blood From Stones: The Secret Financial Network of Terror"

Michael Jacobson: "The West at War: U.S. and European Counterterrorism Efforts, Post–September 11"

Daveed Gartenstein-Ross: "My Year Inside Radical Islam: A Memoir"

Steven Emerson: "Jihad Incorporated: A Guide to Militant Islam in the US" and "American Jihad: The Terrorists Living Among Us"

Victor Comras & Matthew Levitt (contributors): "Terrorism Financing and State Responses," Stanford University Press

Matthew Levitt: "Negotiating Under Fire: Preserving Peace Talks in the Face of Terror Attacks" and "Hamas: Politics, Charity, and Terrorism in the Service of Jihad" and "Targeting Terror: U.S. Policy toward Middle Eastern State Sponsors and Terrorist Organizations, Post-September 11"

Zachary Abuza: "Political Islam and Violence in Indonesia" and "Militant Islam in Southeast Asia: Crucible of Terror"

Lorenzo Vidino "Al Qaeda in Europe: The New Battleground of Global Jihad"

Kenneth Conboy: "The Second Front: Inside Asia’s Most Dangerous Terrorist Network"

Evan Kohlmann: "Al-Qaida's Jihad in Europe: The Afghan-Bosnian Network"

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The Global Economic Crisis and Iraq's Future

By Daveed Gartenstein-Ross

My colleague Josh Goodman and I have an article in the new issue of inFocus examining the impact that the global economic crisis will have on the future of Iraq. An excerpt:

Last summer, when oil prices reached all-time highs virtually every day, it seemed that one of the few silver linings was a more stable future for Iraq. Surging oil prices appeared to give Iraq a windfall; experts forecast an improving economy that could diminish support for the insurgency and increase resources for Iraq's nascent security forces. But now that the collapse in the world's economy has caused oil prices to plummet, what does the future hold for Iraq?
While estimates of Iraq's dependence on oil revenues vary wildly, oil clearly lies at the heart of the country's economy. Indeed, median estimates hold that oil accounts for more than 80 percent of its revenues. Iraq now faces several challenges spawned by the global recession. These challenges come just as the U.S.—pursuant to agreements with Iraq's government—is due to cease its patrols of cities. While a spiral into chaos is not inevitable, there is a clear opening for insurgent factions.
The decline in oil prices has left Iraq short of revenues. Speaking at a London-based think tank in early May, Iraqi deputy prime minister Barham Saleh said that the economic crisis "has had a serious impact" on Iraq's economy, with "plummeting oil prices" forcing the country "to constrain our government spending."
Accordingly, Iraq's government slashed its 2009 budget by about 25 percent, from $80 billion to nearly $60 billion. Yet, despite this reduction in expenditures, around $20 billion of that figure will be deficit spending. This is made possible in part by the fact that a budgetary surplus of around $35 billion remains from the 2008 oil boom.
Jim Durso, who served in the transportation ministry of the Coalition Provisional Authority, predicts that Iraq will try to "make that money last as long as they can, spend it on essential services, and hope that foreign investment can pay for infrastructure."
However, budgetary shortfalls will likely directly impact Iraq's ability to maintain security. Over the past two years, the size of the Iraqi security forces has almost tripled—from 250,000 uniformed personnel to 609,000. With less money in its coffers for salaries, Iraq must curtail the expansion of these forces.

To read the entire article, click here. I also wrote about oil prices and Iraq for the Middle East Times last summer, when the price of oil was around $125 a barrel. To see what I had to say then, click here.

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Newslinks

Afghan held peace talks with captured Taliban boss

Bin Laden's son calls on Iran to free his siblings

(Philippines) Militant with money links leads Abu Sayyaf faction - Khair Mundus

(Yemen) NJ-born Al-Qaida suspect tricked, killed guard - Sharif Mobley

A Tale of Two Taliban Reveals U.S. Afghan Dilemma - former Guantanamo detainees Abdullah Ghulam Rasoul and Mullah Abdul Salam Zaeef

(India) Mumbai police arrest men 'planning terror strikes'

Suspected ETA member arrested in London - Garikoitz Ibarlucea Murua

Contractors Tied to Effort to Track and Kill Militants

Al Qaeda suspect's work at nuclear sites prompts call for probe

(Afghanistan) Blast kills Pakistani national in Afghanistan: police

Afghanistan eases ban on news coverage of raids

(Afghanistan) Explosions across Afghanistan's Kandahar; 30 dead

Afghanistan's new great game: The undeclared wars within the war

(Afghanistan) Taliban: Kandahar bombings a 'warning' to NATO

Pakistan helicopter attack 'kills 13 militants'

(Pakistan) World Digest: Suicide attack kills 13 in Pakistan

(Iraq) US soldier killed in central Iraq

Israel captures senior Hamas militant in West Bank

Yemen suspect tricked guards

Sahara states to hold talks on tackling al Qaeda

(Philippines) Six militants die, camp seized in Philippines: military

(Philippines) Journalist murdered in Sth Philippines

(Philippines) Militant with money links leads Abu Sayyaf faction

U.S. Woman Held in Plot Is Released, Family Says - Jamie Paulin-Ramirez

Three Released in Ireland Terror Case

.For the Love of Islam: A Second American Woman Is Arrested in Cartoonist Case - Jamie Paulin-Ramirez

Opinion: Afghan Prosecutors Key to Beating Taliban. Establishing a Judicial System Afghans Can Trust Must Be Priority.

Bomb blast kills six civilians in Afghanistan

Blasts in Pakistan show pattern of insurgent resilience

Pakistan militants attack checkpoint

U.S. citizen accused in Yemen killing had been under FBI watch

(Spain) Venezuela-bound ETA suspect held in Portugal - Andoni Zengotitabengoa

(UK) 'Terrorist British Airways worker planned to take advantage of strike':A British Airways worker who allegedly wanted to be a suicide bomber has been accused of offering to take advantage of the airline's approaching strike to join the cabin crew - Rajib Karim: " Sources say that Karim's brother has been arrested in the Yemen"

Internet making it easier to become a terrorist: 'JihadJane' and other U.S. suspects don't need militant training camps, officials say. They just go online.

Jailed Jordanian Cleric Is a Poster Boy for Al Qaeda Recruiters - Shaykh Abu Muhammad al-Tahawi

Al-Qaida vet 'takes over Somali jihadists' - Fazul Abdullah Mohammed

Indonesia crackdown may have foiled major attack

Friend: Suspected US al-Qaida Member Grew Radical - Sharif Mobley worked at nuclear plants in NJ

Al Qaeda link, a gun in hand: Jersey man held in Yemen - Sources: Sharif Mobley met Anwar al Aulaqi

Interview: 'My Life With the Taliban' - Translators of autobiography of Mullah Abdul Salam Zaeef, former Taliban ambassador to Pakistan and former Guantanamo detainee

Complaints Persist as US Frees Afghan Detainees

US District Court Sends Summonses to N. Korean Foreign Minister - DC cases stem from the alleged abduction of a missionary who was aiding N. Korean defectors in China and alleged North Korean weapons sales to Hezbollah

'Jihad Jane' Exposes Web's Dark Side

An Awlaki Link for Jihad Jane? via IPT Blog

Hamas Releases British Journalist

Yemen Reportedly Holding U.S. Terror Suspect - Sharif Mobley

South Jersey Man Accused of Terror Attacks: Sources say Sharif Mobley may be linked to al-Qaeda and is accused of shooting Yemeni police guards - Sharif Mobley, 26, of Buena Borough, N.J. is accused of going on a shooting rampage in a Yemeni hospital on Monday, according to sources

No-Fly List Doubles After Christmas Attack: 2,600 New Additions to Government's List Include Yemeni Associates of Suspected Christmas Day Bomber

Bali bomber led new terrorist gang - After Dulmatin's death, seeking terrorist cell's last at-large

Russia: Militants formally arrested over Russian train bombing - 6 other militants, including Alexander Tikhomirov AKA Said Buryatsky, were killed.

Spain: Aid worker snatched by al Qaeda freed - AQIM still holds 2 Spanish workers kidnapped in Mauritania

(Sweden) 'Jihad Jane' visited Sweden to plan attack - Also, in Swedish, Dagens Nyheter extensive coverage

Why the Jihad Jane Case is a Win for the Patriot Act

(UK) British Airways employee faces terrorism charges Rajib Karim advised foreign terrorists on airport security measures, including suspicion scans, liquid allowances, and computer systems, prosecutors alleged

'JihadJane' suspect dropped out before high school, married at 16

(Indonesia) Police Kill Bali Nightclub Bombing Suspect - Dulmatin

Suspect's Death Leads to Questions on Indonesia's Border Security - Dulmatin

Behind the scenes, crafting the US no-fly list

'Jihad Jane's' Arrest Raises Fears About Homegrown Terrorists: Experts Say Suburban Pennsylvania Woman Was Easy to Find, and There Could be More Like Her

Eritrean pleads not guilty to aiding terrorists - Mohamed Ibrahim Ahmed, Al Shabaab

Pak likely to offer 'deal' to Karzai over Baradar's extradition during his Islamabad visit

Pa. woman accused of recruiting jihadists: Indictment alleges American used Internet to spark terror overseas - Colleen R. LaRose, relates to Ireland case re Swedish artist threat

Irish arrest 7 over threat to kill Swedish artist - Drawings by Lars Vilks published in a Swedish newspaper in August 2007

Nigeria extradites Al-Qaeda suspect - Ibrahim Haman Ahmed

Venezuela linked to terror groups

(Canada) U.S. looks for way to return Khadr: No stomach to try child for war crimes: insider - Omar Khadr

Indonesian Police Confirm 3 Terror Suspects Killed Near Jakarta: Unclear whether Dulmatin, one of the most-wanted leaders of the Jemaah Islamiyah militant group, among the dead

(EU) Passenger data deal key to catching terrorists, says US - Passenger Name Records (PNR) agreement has been provisionally in force since 2007, but now requires ratification by the European Parliament

Taliban, HIG infighting leads to split in Afghan insurgency in the North

Brought to U.S., Man Is Charged With Aiding Somali Terrorists - Mohamed Ibrahim Ahmed brought from Nigeria on Saturday, believed to be Eritrean citizen resident of Sweden

(Canada) Distinguish between jihadists and terrorists, Harkat trial told - Expert testimony of US professor at trial of Mohamed Harkat

Terror trial opens for 9 in Belgium - Names of defendants

Al Qaeda agent held in Pakistan is not Adam Gadahn; the Riverside man is still at large -
Pakistani officials reverse earlier statements that they had arrested the spokesman and propagandist for the terrorist network. They now say the man seized in Karachi is a Pennsylvania native.

Malaysia deports 2 terror suspects, including 1 Yemeni; to deport 7 other foreigners

Kadhafi's call for Jihad not linked to violence, terrorism - Civil jihad against Switzerland?

Full text of the Gadahn video posted Sunday 3/7 - read down on page, via Intelwire

Qaeda Operative Arrested in Pakistan Was it Gadahn? NYT identifies as Abu Yahya Mujahdeen al-Adam

Canada to ban militant Somali Islamist group - Al Shabaab

Alleged al-Qaida Terrorist Cell on Trial in Brussels - Trial includes a woman, Belgian-Moroccan Malika El Aroud,

Qaeda suspect kills guard in Yemen hospital escape bid - German citizen of Somali origin

Pakistan Arrests American-Born al-Qaida Militant - Adam Gadahn Update

U.S. Enriches Companies Defying Its Policy on Iran

Saudi king says determined to fight extremism: Saudi security arrests son of human rights activist, 50 others in northern province of Qassim

Malaysia: Terror-accused students remain in detention

Philippine marines kill 7 suspected militants - wanted Malaysian suspect Marwan escapes

Somali man accused of smuggling East Africans through Texas - Ahmed Muhammed Dhakane

(Saudi Arabia) 17 terror suspects on firms' payroll

American al-Qaida spokesman lauds Fort Hood killer - Adam Gadahn

Taliban leader in Swat Valley killed in airstrike - Fateh Mohammad

Cocaine, kidnapping and the Al-Qaeda cash squeeze

Spain And Venezuela End Spat Over Terror Accusation

US hunts for citizens training with terror groups

U.S. Sees a Terror Threat; Pakistanis See a Heroine - Aafia Siddiqui

Shin Bet's Hamas spy hires bodyguards after Haaretz story

Report: Hamas admits losing control in Gaza. Gaza in anarchy as extremist groups challenge Hamas regime, military chief tells Damascus leader.

Update: (Russia) Ingush leader confirms senior rebel killed in raid

Russia says St Petersburg train-bomb suspect killed in Caucasus

Separatists clash with troops in southern Yemen

Al-Qaeda imposes curfew before Iraqi vote

Car bomb rocks Iraq shrine city on election eve

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