Lockerbie: Compassion for Petrodollars?

By Walid Phares

Megrahi's welcome in Tripol: the trigger

The release by Scottish authorities of convicted Libyan intelligence agent Abdel Baset al-Megrahi from prison has created one of the most negative emotional reactions in the United States and other countries. Moved by anger toward the injustice displayed by Scottish authorities to the families and survivors of the victims of the terror attack against Pan Am Flight 103, Americans and large segments of international public opinion are infuriated by the freeing of the convicted terrorist, even under the described Scottish legal values based on compassionate release due to terminal illness.

These exceptional stipulations, when applicable, are designed for criminal cases where one person killed another individual under complex circumstances. A sudden terminal illness is perceived as enough punishment by nature or the divine to grant a severely conditioned release to the family, without any affront to justice and pain to the survivors of the victim.

But that is one thing. Granting freedom to a terrorist who murdered hundreds of innocents civilians bound on an airplane is something that no Scottish, British, American, or international legal value permits. The statements made by Scotland’s minister of justice should not stand in this case. This was no regular murder. This was a mass murder, and compassionate release can only be granted by the survivors of the victims, and should have been legally considered by the national legislatures in Britain and the United States.

The United Kingdom should have superceded Scottish procedures to humanity, not deployed alleged legal technicalities. Edinburgh was wrong legally, and London was as wrong morally. But the matter is even more serious than media and political sensationalism makes it to be. The bigger picture is more ominous. It relates to the present crumbling of Western strategic behavior. The diplomatic and political handling of the oppressive Libyan regime is the root cause of the al-Megrahi’s scandal. Here is why:

NEFA Foundation: Al-Qaida Claims Attempted Assassination of Saudi Deputy Interior Minister Nayef

By Evan Kohlmann

The NEFA Foundation has obtained and translated a new communique from Al-Qaida in the Arabian Peninsula claiming responsibility for the attempted assassination of the Deputy Interior Minister of Saudi Arabia, Prince Mohammed bin Nayef al-Saud. The statement identified the suicide bomber behind the attack as 23-year old Abdullah Hassan Aseri (a.k.a. "Abu al-Khayr"), one of the 85 most wanted Al-Qaida fugitives sought by the Saudi government. According to the communique, Aseri "was able to enter [Nayef's] palace and circulate amongst his bodyguards, thereupon igniting his explosive device-we will not disclose how it was made or the method of detonation-after he passed through all the checkpoints in Najran and Jeddah airports, and was transferred aboard the plane that belongs to the aforementioned [Nayef]." Al-Qaida also claimed to have uncovered "a network of spies and collaborators who are in league with that criminal [Nayef] and which the government of Yemen is oblivious to. There are exciting details that we will announce later, Allah-willing."

An English translation of the Al-Qaida communique can be downloaded from the NEFA Foundation website.

NEFA Foundation: Transcript of New Zawahiri Video, "The Path of Doom"

By Evan Kohlmann

The NEFA Foundation has obtained a new video recording produced by Al-Qaida's As-Sahab Media Foundation featuring Dr. Ayman al-Zawahiri and titled, "The Path of Doom." During his sermon, Dr. al-Zawahiri sharply condemned the Pakistani military campaign to restore control over restive regions in the northwest near the Afghan border -- particularly in Waziristan and Swat. According to al-Zawahiri, "the war in the tribal areas and Swat is an inseparable part of the Crusaders’ assault on the Muslims the length and breadth of the Islamic world." As a result, "the Pakistan Army is acting as a fundamental element of the Crusade against Islam and Muslims, and has become a tool in the hands of the global Crusade." Dr. al-Zawahiri suggested that there is only one means available "to get out of this predicament which Pakistan has gotten itself into: it is through Jihad, and there is no way other than Jihad."

An English transcript of Dr. al-Zawahiri's remarks can be downloaded from the NEFA Foundation website.

Al-Qaida's "Islamic State of Iraq" (ISI) Claims Deadly Baghdad Suicide Bombings

By Evan Kohlmann

The NEFA Foundation has obtained and translated a new communique from Al-Qaida's "Islamic State of Iraq" (ISI) claiming responsibility for the coordinated August 19 suicide bombing attacks on Iraqi government ministries in the capital Baghdad. According to the statement, "disciples of the Islamic State have launched a new blessed battle in the heart of stricken Baghdad, to attack the infidel dens and deviant fortresses of the apostate government... The ground shook beneath their feet and their hearts were torn apart with terror and fear. Their weakness and the fragility of the nation--and how it is divided--has been revealed." The statement also addressed the issue of civilian casualties: "if we have accidentally killed or harmed those of Sunni Muslim blood who were located in these places, then we send our wishes to those wounded persons for a speedy recovery, and for those who were killed, [we wish them] to be raised as martyrs. We beseech them [Sunni Muslims] to Allah to avoid passing by or being in these places as much as possible. We will not stop our jihad against the mushrikeen and defending against the infidels for the sake of those fallen martyrs."

An English translation of the Al-Qaida communique can be downloaded from the NEFA Foundation website.

Chávez's Excellent Adventure

By Douglas Farah

Venezuelan president Hugo Chávez, apparently afraid that Colombia's willingness to allow Forward Operating Locations (FOLs) in Colombia, will spend early September visiting a number of pariah states in an effort to strengthen his standing.

According to the official presidential press office, Chávez will spend most of the first two weeks of September visiting Libya (where a convicted terrorist was just received as a hero by Gadaffi et al); Iran (whose newly-nominated defense minister Ahmad Vahidi is a wanted terrorist and responsible for numerous terrorist attacks, including one that killed Americans), then off to buy a battalion of tanks from Russia, arriving via Syria, another state sponsor of terrorism.

Lovely trip. While visiting Gadaffi, Chávez will also participate in an African Union summit, perhaps for the chance to rub elbows with Mugabe, Kabila and others to share lessons learned in destabilization.

Chávez is deeply vexed that Colombia would allow the United States to locate several FOLs in its national territory, a move largely designed to offset the loss of the Manta FOL in Ecuador, where the 10-year lease expired in July and was not renewed by the Correa government.

One of the issues that is of serious concern is not just the loss of the ability to monitor the Pacific corridor drug flights without Manta (a capacity that would be enhanced by the Colombian SOLs but would still be far less than it was in Manta), but the impact of the loss on the Mexican drug situation. My full blog is here.

A Car Bomb in Southern Thailand and Other Recent Trends

By Zachary Abuza

Today, a 40-50 kg car bomb in the southern Thai city of Narathiwat detonated in front of a crowded restaurant during lunch hour. Though fortunately no one was killed, at least 42 people were wounded, 7 critically. It was the second car bomb this year.

Over 3,700 people have been killed in southern Thailand since an Islamist insurgency began in January 2004. Many thousands more have been wounded and Thai government officials recently acknowledged that several thousand children have been orphaned in the conflict. Though the current government has claimed that violence has gone down, there actually has been a steady up-tick since 2008.

Since the current government of Prime Minister Abhisit assumed power on 15 December 2008, more than 280 people have been killed and 520 people wounded. [My figures are conservative as they are based on open source reporting and not official government statistics]. Those dead include 15 police, 30 soldiers, 15 paramilitary rangers, 184 civilians a monk, and 13 teachers. Over 230 police, soldiers and rangers have been wounded. In that period of time there have been at least 117 bombings or roadside IED detonations, 11 beheadings and the corpses of victims have been desecrated 11 times.

Though car bombs are infrequently used in southern Thailand, where smaller motorcycle bombs and IEDs of roughly 5 kg are more common, there has been a trend this month towards large bombs, in the 20 kg range. For example, 20 KG IEDs were used on 19th, 20th and twice on the 21st while on 8 August a 20 kg IED hidden by the road was recovered by government forces.

While insurgents routinely employ time-delayed bombs to target security forces responding to attacks, there has been one other new trend in IEDs. On 8 August, a military bomb disposal unit found 6 IEDs fashioned out of fire extinguishers that had been wired together and connected to a single car battery. Similarly constructed bombs were used or recovered two more times this month..

Despite these trends in IED use, size and composition, the vast majority of the people killed or wounded in the insurgency are shot.

In another trend, bold frontal assaults on police and military check-points are up dramatically from a year ago. This probably portends confidence amongst the insurgents in their manpower and arsenal.

Thai security forces remained hampered by their inability to successfully prosecute suspected insurgents; Over 80 percent of those captured are released. As such, they have resorted to EJKs and other human rights abuses, further alienating the majority Malay Muslim community. While the government has recently pledged more development funds for the restive south, the insurgency has never been about development. Sadly, as long as the conflict remains confined to the southernmost provinces, it will remain a low priority for the government, consumed with elite political machinations in Bangkok. And while Southern Thailand remains the single most lethal conflict in Southeast Asia, it remains a low priority for America and its allies in the region.

Terrorist Dropouts: One Way of Promoting a Counternarrative

By Michael Jacobson

As efforts to disrupt al-Qaeda and its affiliates continue, the U.S. government has slowly come to realize that military force alone cannot defeat radical extremism. Although al-Qaeda's ideas and those of like-minded groups must be challenged, it is clear that a single, overarching counternarrative cannot be expected to work across the board. To determine what might be effective among both the hardened individuals already in terrorist organizations and those well along the path to radicalization, it is useful to look at examples of people who have voluntarily walked away from these organizations. By analyzing these changes in perspective, governments can more effectively craft counterradicalization messages.

To read the rest of the article, which was published in the August issue of the journal "Perspectives on Terrorism," click here.

Iran's Cynicism on Terrorism

By Douglas Farah

One of the clearest signs of the danger that the Iranian presence poses in Latin America is the decision by president Ahmadinejad to name one of the masterminds of the 1994 AMIA bombings as minister of defense.

Ahamd Vahidi, who at the time of the bombing was the head of the Quds Force, is the subject of an Interpol Red Notice, asking for his arrest for his part in the worst terrorist attack in Latin America.

He was deputy defense minister in Ahmadinejad's first government, and is now being promoted. Seven other senior Iranian officials are subject of Interpol Red Notices as well.

Alberto Nisman, the Argentine prosecutor who has spent years investigating the case (and presenting enough evidence to Interpol to get the Red Notice issued), called Vahidi "a key participant in the planning and of having made the decision to go ahead with the attack."

"It has been demonstrated that Vahidi participated in and approved of the decision to attack AMIA during a meeting in Iran on August 14, 1993. Iran has always protected terrorists, giving them government posts, but I think never one as high as this one," Nisman told the Associated Press.

Given Iran's rapidly-expanding and largely opaque diplomatic presence in Latin America and the history of Iranian diplomatic missions in housing Quds Force special operatives and Hezbollah, this is a bad sign indeed. My full blog is here.

NEFA Foundation: AQIM Offers "Consolation and Condolences" to Nigerian Islamists

By Evan Kohlmann

The NEFA Foundation has obtained a new statement from Al-Qaida in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) in which the group offers "consolation and condolences" to Nigerian Muslims in response to the swift Nigerian government crackdown on the nascent "Boko Haram" movement. According to the statement, "we followed with broken hearts the events of the massacre which befell our relatives and brothers in Nigeria over the past days -- this barbaric crime and ugly revenge which was perpetrated against the rights of approximately 800 Muslims by wrecking their mosques, bombing their hospital, and tearing down their houses. The spiteful Christian army of Nigeria has been maiming and murdering Muslims well within eyesight and earshot of the world that is so proud of its human rights and its values of freedom and fake justice." The AQIM further warned, "the blood of Shaykh Mohamed Yusuf and his brothers won't go away just like that. By the will of Allah, it will serve as a lantern to light the path for Muslims in Nigeria and as an inferno that will burn the cross worshippers and water the tree of Islam."

A translation of the AQIM communique can be downloaded from the NEFA Foundation website.

Why The U.S. Missed Zapping Bin Laden 11 Years Ago

By James Gordon Meek

It all came down to a call from Pakistan.

Had Osama Bin Laden not received that message 11 years ago today, dozens of U.S. Navy cruise missiles might have found their primary target and America arguably would not have been attacked on Sept. 11, 2001. Afghanistan probably would have remained a blighted backwater run by the Taliban, and Iraq’s Saddam Hussein might even still be in power.

More importantly, if Al Qaeda’s leader had been killed on Aug. 20, 1998 by the missiles aimed at his Al Farouk terror training camp in Khowst, Afghanistan, 2,973 innocent Americans might not have been slaughtered in Al Qaeda’s assault on New York City, Washington and Pennsylvania. And 5,439 families in the U.S., U.K., Canada, Germany, Italy and scores of other coalition countries probably never would have been informed that a loved one in the military had made the ultimate sacrifice in Iraq, Afghanistan or the far reaches of the war on Bin Laden’s Islamic terror network.

How did the U.S. miss him? A lingering 9/11 mystery may finally have been explained.

A St. Martin’s Press book set for fall release by Bin Laden’s son Omar and first wife Najwa, “Growing Up Bin Laden,” appears to credibly answer the question of how the Saudi terror kingpin narrowly dodged - by two hours - the Clinton administration’s biggest attempt to assassinate him. It came days after the East Africa U.S. embassy bombings that killed 224 and wounded more than 5,000 on Aug. 7, 1998.

It was America’s biggest missed opportunity to alter the course of history - but the evidence increasingly points a damning finger at a current U.S. ally Washington relies so heavily on to help prevent the next attack on the homeland.

Omar Bin Laden reveals in the new memoir, as we reported in the New York Daily News last month, that his father moved from his compound in Kandahar following the embassy attacks (which Al Qaeda implausibly denied perpetrating), traveling northeast to Khowst on the Pakistan border in late August 1998.

After a few days at Al Farouk, Osama Bin Laden “received a highly secretive communication” on Aug. 20, Omar writes. The family immediately left Khowst for Kabul - only two hours before the camp was obliterated by 75 cruise missiles. (Clinton was immediately accused of a “Wag the Dog” strike intended to distract the country from his Aug. 17 admission of a sex affair with Monica Lewinsky.)

Richard Clarke, then Clinton’s counterterror czar, recently told me that Omar’s account is important because it “squares with what we had.”

It also settles a question the 9/11 commission couldn't definitively answer. “Officials in Washington speculated that one or another Pakistani official might have sent a warning to the Taliban or Bin Laden,” the panel’s 2004 final report stated, citing only its 2003 interview of Clarke and reaching no conclusion.

The U.S. later learned that Pakistani officials had spotted Navy warships off their coast, “deduced there would be a missile attack,” and tipped off Al Qaeda, Clarke reasons.

Bin Laden expert Peter Bergen of the New America Foundation agrees that Omar’s tale rings true, but says the terror leader’s precautions could also be explained by merely “being cognizant” of a likely U.S. reprisal.

NEFA Foundation: AQIM Claims Bombing at French Embassy in Mauritania

By Evan Kohlmann

The NEFA Foundation has obtained and translated a new statement from Al-Qaida in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) claiming responsibility for an August 8 suicide bombing attack on the French embassy in the Mauritanian capital Nouakchott. The communique identified the bomber as "Abu Obaidah Musa al-Basri", a local from a suburb of Nouakchott who first joined Al-Qaida in December 2008. According to the document, "he strapped himself with an explosive belt to attack one of the crusader dens, the French Embassy in Nouakchott. By the grace of Allah, he was able to reach the target--however, there were barriers that prevented him from entering the building, thus he detonated himself by the gate of the embassy targeting the French military guards."

A translation of the communique, along with photos of the bomber Abu Obaidah Musa al-Basri, can be viewed on the NEFA Foundation website.

Cracking Down on Iran's Illicit Trade

By Michael Jacobson

On August 13, President Barack Obama announced that his administration was reviewing the U.S. export control system to determine what reforms were needed to bring the regime up to date. Although the United States has stepped up its enforcement efforts in this area over the past several years -- particularly in terms of illegal exports of goods and services to Iran -- the system remains in need of further improvement. Strengthening the export control regime to prevent Iran from easily circumventing U.S. and international sanctions should be a key part of this important review.

Stepped Up Efforts

The United States began increasing its enforcement efforts in the export control arena in 2007, with the launch of the National Export Enforcement Initiative -- a joint effort of the Departments of Justice, Commerce, Homeland Security (DHS), State, Treasury, and the FBI. As a first step, the Justice Department created a national export control coordinator position in Washington to help manage nationwide efforts, and formed approximately fifteen counterproliferation task forces at the local offices of U.S. attorneys around the country to improve information sharing with participating investigative agencies.

In September 2008, the Treasury Department's Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) released new enforcement guidelines, clarifying how it will determine penalties for violations of U.S. sanctions. In addition to the guideline changes, OFAC has also become more aggressive on the investigative front since the hiring of former prosecutors and investigators to lead the office's enforcement efforts. Now, instead of relying primarily on voluntary disclosures from companies that believe they have violated U.S. sanctions laws, OFAC is conducting more proactive, formal investigations.

These bureaucratic changes were complemented by an expansion in the U.S. government's legal authority, courtesy of the October 2007 International Economic Powers Enhancement Act, which dramatically increased the potential penalties for sanctions violations.

To read the rest of the piece, click here.

NEFA Foundation: Video of Slain Palestinian Militant Encouraging "Beheading" of Americans

By Evan Kohlmann

The NEFA Foundation has obtained and translated video footage of a sermon by the late Shaykh Abu al-Nour al-Maqdisi (a.k.a. Abdellatif Moussa), spiritual leader of the Palestinian militant faction "Jund Ansar Allah." During his speech, al-Maqdisi condemned the United States for "flaunting [its] power and making accusations of terrorism" and ordered his followers, "those who are infidels, they shall receive beheadings. When you attack them, do it ferociously-so it is the reward of the hereafter, or continued sacrifice, until the conflict ends." He also praised "this new righteous movement; this new righteous movement led by the likes of Mullah Mohammed Omar, Shaykh Usama Bin Laden, Dr. Ayman al-Zawahiri, and Shaykh Abu Musab al-Zarqawi... This group of patient and faithful mujahideen will teach them that the believer would rather take a willing strike by the sword on his neck-a willing strike by the sword on his neck-than a whip wielded in humiliation."

The video can be viewed on the NEFA Foundation website.

Video of the Final Sermon of Jund Ansar Allah's Abu al-Nour al-Maqdisi

By Evan Kohlmann

The NEFA Foundation has obtained video footage of the final sermon given by Abu al-Nour al-Maqdisi (a.k.a. Abdel Latif Moussa) in the Ibn Taymiyah mosque in the southern Gaza town of Rafah shortly before he was killed in clashes between Hamas security forces and his militant followers (organized in a group known as "Jund Ansar Allah"). During his sermon, Abu al-Nour called upon armed Palestinian Islamists to travel to the Rafah mosque and support their brethren against the siege by Hamas: "all the loyal brothers and those who carry or own weapons, ammunition, and other equipment in the city of Rafah, and from the rest of Gaza Strip-and those who seek to become arrows in the quiver of Islam: Come forward with your weapons and equipment to aid the military leadership in the Shaykh Ibn Tamiyah Mosque, and declare your allegiance to this leadership." The Palestinian cleric concluded his sermon by admonishing his audience, "O' my beloved ones, it is just as Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, may Allah have mercy on him, once said: ‘Our approach does not accept compromise.'"

The video can be viewed on the NEFA Foundation website.

Human Rights in Mexico's Drug War

By Douglas Farah

There is little question that fighting drug traffickers' efforts to take over the state or render it an effectively "ungoverned space" needs not only firepower but the support of the civilian population. The Mexican government of Felipe Calderón finds itself in that extremely difficult and dangerous nether world between needing to use the military in a war the military is not equipped to fight and not totally alienating the civilian population.

The New York Times today story on the State Department's report makes the point. Complaints of human rights abuses have jumped since the military entered the fray. It is a force that is neither trained nor interested in going after drug traffickers.

While the State Department cited several examples of progress, it was hardly a glowing endorsement. And a key Democratic senator said the report failed to adequately address the concerns about impunity within the Mexican military that led him to threaten to hold up millions of dollars in United States assistance.

“It is well known that the military justice system is manifestly ineffective,” said a statement issued Tuesday by Senator Patrick J. Leahy of Vermont, chairman of the Senate appropriations subcommittee on foreign operations, which must approve disbursement of the Merida assistance. “And it is apparent that neither the Mexican government nor the State Department has treated human rights abuses by the military, which is engaging in an internal police function it is ill suited for, as a priority.”

As in Afghanistan, Iraq, El Salvador and every other counterinsurgency effort (and it would be a mistake to think Mexico is facing anything less than a loose confederation of insurgent forces, each intent on controlling geographic territory to carry out its criminal activity) has shown, it is a tragic and costly mistake to think that the best way to gather information is to torture or execute the civilian population (or the enemy).

Every act of torture and murder by government forces moves an entire family to the side of the enemy who will then do everything possible to get revenge. My full blog is here.

GAZA: BIG JIHAD V/S LITTLE JIHAD

By Walid Phares

Jund Ansar Allah

Hamas’ attack against a Jihadist group inside Gaza is about to provide the Palestinian Islamist organization a pass to become a “mainstream” movement, acceptable internationally as a partner in negotiations. Or at least that is what Hamas strategists think may happen as a result of crushing the minuscule militant entity known as Jund Ansar Allah (The Soldiers or the Partisans of Allah) last week. This is another murky development in the world of Jihadism, where the biggest brothers in holy war devoured the little ones, in a race between who can achieve final victory against the Kuffar (infidels). But in Gaza, these intra Jihadist slaughter fests are peculiar in as much as the “Palestine cause” is so central to the Islamist political narrative worldwide.

In November of 2008, a new group in Rafah declared itself as the ultimate Salafi Jihadist force of Palestine. After many previous attempts made previously by al Qaeda inspired factions at least since 2001, Jund Ansar Allah (JAA) led by Abel Latif Mussa, aka Abu al Nour al Maqdissi, seized the control of a local Mosque and segments of a neighborhood and launched a couple attacks against Israel as of early 2009. The JAA issued many declarations calling for “real Jihad,” ending negotiations with Fatah, the international community and opposing any type of elections and constitutional structure in Gaza other than pure Sharia. From his pulpit, Sheikh Mussa criticized Hamas’ leadership for failing the Jihad they promised to deliver, and for betraying their own constitution calling for an Islamic Emirate all over Palestine, not just in Gaza and the West Bank. Hundreds of already indoctrinated youth joined the JAA and formed the nucleus of a Jihadi milita. Their ranks were growing at an alarming rate for Hamas, which felt time came to squash them, before they became a competitive organization. The JAA was on its ballistic way to devour Hamas from the inside. It was using the same doctrines upon which Hamas was founded, grew and used to overthrew Fatah from Gaza.

NEFA Foundation: Video of "Jund Ansar Allah" Training Camp in Gaza

By Evan Kohlmann

The NEFA Foundation has obtained video footage of a recent terrorist training camp in the Gaza Strip run by the Palestinian Al-Qaida startup franchise "Jund Ansar Allah." The footage, which opens with a sermon from the group's late spiritual leader Abu al-Nour al-Maqdisi, shows masked militants conducting urban warfare exercises, weapons drills, and tests of improvised explosive devices. On August 15, 2009, dozens of Palestinians were wounded or killed during violent clashes between "Jund Ansar Allah" and Hamas security forces in the southern town of Rafah.

The video can be viewed on the NEFA Foundation website.

NEFA Foundation: Full Text - Declaration of an "Islamic Emirate" in Palestine

By Evan Kohlmann

The NEFA Foundation has released an English translation of the initial statement from the Palestinian militant faction "Jund Ansar Allah" declaring the foundation of a so-called "Islamic Emirate in Bayt al-Maqdis" under the command of cleric Shaykh Abu al-Nour al-Maqdisi. One day after the communique was issued, on August 15, al-Maqdisi was reported killed amid fierce clashes between Jund Ansar Allah fighters and Hamas security forces in the southern Gaza town of Rafah.

The transcript of the Jund Ansar Allah statement can be downloaded from the NEFA Foundation website.

NEFA Foundation: "Jund Ansar Allah" Threatens "Response" to Hamas Clashes

By Evan Kohlmann

The Palestinian militant group known as "Jund Ansar Allah" has threatened an unspecified "response" in coming days in revenge for clashes with Hamas security forces in the southern Gaza Strip. According to a new statement from "Jund Ansar Allah" posted on August 16, "we did not intend to bomb any security headquarters or attack any Hamas units like the so-called Fathi Hammad has claimed, and we have no connection whatsoever with any explosion that occurred on the Palestinian battlefield, and we have not called anyone a Kafir, and we are not followers of Al-Qaida... And now we are awaiting our new commander." The communiqué blamed unnamed moderate leaders from Hamas for igniting a "schism" within the Palestinian Islamist movement, adding, "we wash our hands of responsibility for any events that might take place in the next several days as a result." The group also accused corrupt Hamas operatives of stealing over $120,000 in cash and equipment from Jund Ansar Allah during recent security raids.

An English translation of the threat from Jund Ansar Allah is available on the NEFA Foundation website.

NEFA Foundation - Taliban Media Spokesman: Baitullah Mehsud is Still Alive

By Evan Kohlmann

The NEFA Foundation has obtained a new message posted by Abdullah al-Wazir, the official online correspondent for the media wing of the Taliban movement in Afghanistan, sharply denying reports that the leader of the Pakistani Taliban Baitullah Mehsud has been killed in a U.S. missile strike. According to al-Wazir, these widespread rumors are merely part of a plot by American and Pakistani intelligence agencies to prod Mehsud into foolishly revealing his secret location. Al-Wazir insisted, “Baitullah Mehsud is alive in Pakistan, and his organization will soon air a video [of him].”

An English translation of Abdullah al-Wazir's remarks are available on the NEFA Foundation website.

NBC News: Iraqi insurgent spokesman open to better ties with U.S.

By Evan Kohlmann

In a videotaped response to questions from NBC News, a spokesman for Sunni insurgents in Iraq suggests that America's revamped diplomatic approach under the administration of President Barack Obama may be causing some of America's most vocal opponents in the Middle East to reappraise their tenor towards the United States.

Speaking from an undisclosed location in Baghdad, Dr. Ibrahim al-Shammari-official spokesman for the Sunni militant group known as the Islamic Army in Iraq (IAI)-praised President Obama for promoting the ideals of "a shared community and mutual respect" between Muslims and non-Muslims, and called upon him to put these words into action...

In his videotaped response, al-Shammari, who kept his face concealed, commented on President Obama’s recent address to the Muslim world in Cairo: "His speech was presented in a polite and respectful language. It was very emotionally charged, and it offered respect towards Islam. The visit to our region was marked by an American modesty that we have never witnessed before."

Appealing directly to the American public, the IAI spokesman declared, "the world is large enough for all of us to thrive, and you can achieve your interests without further war, bloodshed, and wasted money…. If America or President Obama wants to start a new policy according to the platform he introduced, which we support and agree with, which is living together as a community and respecting each other, or promoting shared interests, we support that and welcome it highly."

The full story (and video) can be viewed on the NBC News website.

Much Ado About Something: Terror and Pakistan’s Nuclear Assets

By Animesh Roul

Every Pakistan watchers knew about those events. Bill Roggio has highlighted these events in his reports too (esp. in Long War Journal). But, Shaun Gregory (“The Terrorist Threat to Pakistan’s Nuclear Weapons,” CTC Sentinel, Vol. 2 (7), July 2009) has analyzed these events to expose the vulnerability of Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal, the “pillar of Pakistan’s national security”.

The paper published in the CTC Sentinel (Combating Terrorism Center, West Point) has triggered a pitched debate in the region and in the Western World whether Pakistan’s nuclear infrastructures are secure or not , especially in the face of those (mentioned below) terror attacks that occurred in the last couple of years. Gregory’s article underscores three terror strikes on nuclear weapons facilities in Pakistan, questioning the physical security of the coveted nuclear assets:

“These have included an attack on the nuclear missile storage facility at Sargodha on November 1, 2007, an attack on Pakistan’s nuclear airbase at Kamra by a suicide bomber on December 10, 2007, and perhaps most significantly the August 20, 2008 attack when Pakistani Taliban suicide bombers blew up several entry points to one of the armament complexes at the Wah cantonment, considered one of Pakistan’s main nuclear weapons assembly sites.”

(Correction: The twin attack at the Wah Cantonment actually took place on August 21, Thursday, 2008, not on August 20 as chronicled in the paper).

Let’s revisit those terror events, all perpetrated by Taliban and Al Qaeda elements.

• November 1, 2007: Motorbike borne suicide bomber rammed his vehicle into a Pakistan Air Force (PAF) bus, killing seven PAF officers and three civilians on the Faisalabad Road in Sargodha (Punjab province). The bus was carrying PAF staff from the Mushaf Mir Airbase to Kirana Ammunition Depot. This Suicide attack was targeted at the air force officials and civilians, no intention to harm or steal nuclear material, or create a radiological emergency.
• December 10, 2007: At least five schoolchildren and three others were injured when a Car borne suicide bomber exploded his vehicle targeting a Pakistan Aeronautical Complex (PAC) bus carrying air force employees’ children at Kamra air base. The blast took place on the outskirts of the PAC factories on the Qutba-Attock Road and bus was going to the Attock city.
• August 21, 2008: This was the most severe suicide attack ever carried out against military establishments. Two suicide bombers blew themselves up near the gates of the Pakistan Ordnance Factories located in the military cantonment at Wah (Attock district), killing at least 70 persons. The POF at Wah is a cluster of industrial units producing variety of arms and ammunitions for the armed forces. Taliban spokesman Maulvi Omar claimed responsibility of the suicide attacks saying that they had been carried out in retaliation for military operations in Bajaur and Swat.

These terrorist acts mentioned by Gregory, were actually targeted at the security forces or civilians at the highly fortified military bases and not necessarily targeted with the aim of stealing nuclear material or creating nuclear disaster. But he has very rightly pointed out that these attacks highlighted the vulnerability of military/nuclear infrastructures in Pakistan and the myth of safety and security standard. What Gregory has missed here is that previous similar but ‘direct’ attacks on nuclear establishments by Baloch militants, e.g. mortar attack on the Pakistan Atomic Energy Commission (PAEC) controlled establishment on the Dera Ghazi Khan-Quetta highway in May 2006. However, this event received scant media attention and subsequent cover up by Pakistan.

In all three attacks, which were very symbolic depicting‘Taliban-Military feud’ in Pakistan, these terrorists never showed the intention to create a nuclear disaster instead they claim responsibility of the mayhems and threaten for more such type of attacks against the military/police in future to avenge anti-terror operations. Of course their Al Qaeda friends have their goals intact for acquiring nuclear weapons or materials.

The point of debate: More than these three events which caught the attention of media, though lately (the paper published online on July 21, 2009) and triggered debates now especially in India, Pakistan and USA (Read News Links below) , the crux of the paper, I believe, somehow ignored or overlooked. The media picked up these terror events to highlight the vulnerability of Pakistan’s nuclear assets (lack of adequate physical security) which might fall in the hand of terrorists or extremists, but missed out the important point of Gregory’ article. The existential threat emanating from Pakistan, the nuclear power with abysmal proliferation track records, lies somewhere else. Gregory points out that Pakistan Army could decide to transfer nuclear weapons to a terrorist group. He mentioned in his paper (citing Philip Bobbitt’s ‘Terror and Consent', and reminding us about Mirza Aslam Beg’s case of passing nuclear weapons technology to Iran in the past) that "states can become pressurized or incentivized to transfer nuclear weapons to terrorist groups because they are responding to threats from an external power but fear the consequences of being identified as the origin of a nuclear strike.” This insinuation should be the point of debate which questions the nexus between the army and its proxy warriors.

NEFA Foundation: Reports of Squabbling Over French Hostages in Somalia

By Evan Kohlmann

The NEFA Foundation has obtained and translated a new post from online jihadi discussion forums that describes a dispute over two French security consultants in Somalia who were kidnapped from a Mogadishu hotel on July 14. The dispute surrounding the hostages reportedly resulted in "disunity in Hizbul Islam that reached the limit of battle." July 2009 media reports provide additional context as a Somali police officer was quoted in the press as saying, "The higher-ranking French official was taken by al-Shabaab and the other remained with [Sheikh Hassan] Dahir Aweys," who is the leader of Hizbul Islam.

An English translation of the account published online can be downloaded from the NEFA Foundation website.

For more information about the Shabaab al-Mujahideen Movement, see my NEFA Foundation report, "Shabaab al-Mujahideen: Migration and Jihad in the Horn of Africa."

NEFA Foundation: Turkestan Islamic Party (TIP) Claims China “Terrified by Our Operations”

By Evan Kohlmann

The NEFA Foundation has obtained and translated an article from the Turkestan Islamic Party’s (TIP) official magazine, "Islamic Turkestan", titled, “The Enemy Is Terrified by Our Operations” by Abdullah Mansur. In this article first published last November, Mansur described the wave of TIP attacks in the lead up to the 2008 Beijing Olympics and the Chinese government’s response. He noted, “…the Muslims of Eastern Turkestan are longing for a call to Jihad. The Chinese Communists have been oppressing them, but they have awoken from their deep sleep. There is nothing they like more than the noise of gunfire and the sound of guns and explosives. They have made up their minds and they are not hiding themselves behind their weapons.”

A copy of the article by Abdullah Mansur can be downloaded from the NEFA Foundation website.

NEFA "Target: America" Report: The Plot to Attack Jewish Centers in the Bronx and a Military Facility in Newburgh, New York

By Madeleine Gruen

Four Newburgh, New York men were arrested in the Riverdale section of the Bronx on the night of May 20, 2009 for attempting to bomb a Jewish community center with, what they believed to be, a 30-pound plastic explosive device, which they placed in a car positioned outside of the center. The conspirators also intended to attack the National Guard air base in Newburgh with a surface-to-air-missile, which they acquired from a dealer they believed to be affiliated with the Pakistani terrorist group, Jaish-e-Mohammed.

In this 20th report in the "Target: America" series, the NEFA Foundation explores the backgrounds of the men, all of whom converted to Islam while incarcerated, and their tactics, which had the potential to culminate in a viable attack despite the group’s lack of formal training. There are lessons to be learned from this plot for law enforcement, private business security directors, and religious institutions.

This case also demonstrates the necessity of further study of how some prison converts end up radicalized. The details of the conspirators’ backgrounds in the Bronx plot case makes it difficult to know how they became radicalized; whether it was during the terms of their incarcerations, or through their interactions post-incarceration. This is an important issue for exploration by those who study homegrown radicalization.

The full report can be downloaded from the NEFA website.

Why the "Merchant of Death" May Not Stand Trial

By Douglas Farah

Here is what I wrote today for Foreign Policy Magazine on the Thai judge's decision not to extradite Viktor Bout to the United States to stand trial:

Today, a Thai court ruled against extraditing notorious Russian weapons trafficker Viktor Bout to the United States -- a setback for the American legal system and a bad portent not just for U.S.-Thai relations, but also for relations between the United States and Russia.

James F. Entwistle, a senior U.S. official in Thailand, said he was "disappointed and mystified" at the ruling, which the United States intends to appeal. But the odds are in Bout's favor, as Thai appellate courts affirm lower-court rulings in the vast majority of cases.

Who is Viktor Bout and why does this case matter so much? The Russian dealer became known as the "Merchant of Death" for his exploits in delivering sophisticated weapons to war zones from Afghanistan to Colombia and Lebanon -- but mostly to Africa's most brutal thugs. Before he was finally nabbed last spring, Bout had been at work for decades, despite episodic Western efforts to stop him. He was the target of intelligence operations at the end of the Clinton administration. Several European governments, especially Belgium, have been after him for years. And, the United Nations has placed him on an international travel ban.

His extradition has become a top priority for an Obama administration seeking to prevent him from being released and further fanning conflicts around the world, particularly in his old stomping grounds of Afghanistan. The U.S. Justice Department had hoped Bout would stand trial after the Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA) caught him in a sting in March 2008.

Bout's capture was like a John Le Carré novel. In an elaborate ruse, DEA agents posed as guerillas from the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) and contacted the Russian arms dealer. The Colombian group, infamous for its kidnappings and cocaine trafficking, is designated a terrorist organization by the United States and European Union. Bout, a former Soviet officer, stated he could sell the "FARC" intermediaries sophisticated weaponry to fight the U.S.-backed government in Colombia and to target U.S. military and civilian advisors. After having his intermediaries hop-scotch around the world to meet with them, Bout agreed to fly to Bangkok to seal the deal in person.

There, according to the indictment in Southern District of New York, he met with the undercover agents posing as FARC commanders for two hours in a luxury hotel. He offered to sell the group 700 to 800 surface-to-air missiles, millions of rounds of ammunition, AK-47 assault rifles, two cargo planes, and drone aircraft to bomb U.S.-built radar facilities in Colombia. He specifically stated he wanted to help kill Americans, who, he said, were his enemy too. He offered weapons-training classes. It is all on tape.

My full blog is here.

Hizb ut-Tahrir America Attempts to Control Dialogue and Spin Public Perception

By Madeleine Gruen

Since its July 19th Khilafah conference in Chicago, “The Fall of Capitalism and Rise of Islam,” Hizb ut-Tahrir America (HTA) has attempted to gain control of public discourse through press releases and online events. After the much-publicized conference, HTA was forced to go on the defensive in order to deflect accusations about ties to militancy and terrorism. It had been HTA’s hope that the conference would cause the media to act as its Trojan Horse by circulating the concept of a Khilafah to a wide American audience.

HTA held an online press conference from its base in Chicago last night. Questions were answered by Mohammed Malkawi, who has been HTA’s spokesman to the media since the group's public launch in June. (Malkawi was introduced to the virtual audience by his pseudonym, “Abu Talha”).

In the days leading up to the July 19th conference, some media outlets reported that HT had "ties" to 9/11 mastermind Khalid Sheikh Mohammed and former al-Qaeda in Iraq leader Abu Musab al-Zarkawi. In his opening statement, Malkawi denied the accusations that HT had ties to any "militant groups," although he did not mention Khalid Sheikh Mohammed or Zarkawi specifically. He also took the opportunity to refute Hudson Institute scholar Zeyno Baran’s assessment that HT is a conveyor belt to terrorism. In response to one participant's question, Malkawi stated emphatically that HT had never “yielded to the influence of militancy.” Malkawi did not discuss the fact that HT has produced several militant offshoots, including al-Muhajiroun, based in London, and Akromiya, which was responsible for organizing protests against the Uzbek government that eventually led to the Andijan massacre in 2005. Nor did Malkawi mention individuals who were involved with HT and who went on to join more militant groups; such as, Omar Sharif and Asif Hanif, who participated in a suicide attack in Tel Aviv in 2003, and 9/11 planner Ramzi Binalshibh.

Hizb ut Tahrir (HT) has made inroads in other parts of the world by framing its boilerplate doctrine in a modern context. HT plays on the frustrations of Muslim populations in order to position itself as the vanguard of the aggrieved. Its blanket solution to all social, political, and economic problems is the establishment of an Islamic government, ruled by a Caliph, and run according to the laws of Shariah.

Much of HT’s strategic success in growing its support base and core membership can be attributed to its ability to control public dialogue through its aggressive production of leaflets and videos, web sites, and its public demonstrations. HT's communication campaigns attempt to stir controversy where there may have been none, attract media attention, and result in causing government agencies to react defensively; putting HT in the seat of control. HTA is clearly attempting to do the same in the United States. However, thus far, HTA has not been successful in assuming control of the tone or content of media reports, or in sparking positive discussions about its ideas.

Shadow Facilitators and Alternative Crops in Afghanistan

By Douglas Farah

One sign of how concerned the military and administration are about the situation is the new thinking that is going on while looking at old problems. Two important stories highlight just how sharp the change in strategy is.

The first is the New York Times piece on the addition of 50 drug lords to the list of Afghanis on the Pentagon's target list to kill or capture. This is recognition of the symbiotic and devastating link between the drug trade financing the Taliban (and al Qaeda). The 50 are what the DEA would call "shadow facilitators," those who are able to deal across criminal-terrorist-tribal-ethnic lines to buy opium, sell heroin, import surface-to-air missiles etc.

Lt. Col. Patrick Ryder, a Pentagon spokesman...said that “there is a positive, well-known connection between the drug trade and financing for the insurgency and terrorism.” Without directly addressing the existence of the target list, he said that it was “important to clarify that we are targeting terrorists with links to the drug trade, rather than targeting drug traffickers with links to terrorism.”

That may be a distinction without a difference in the Af/Pak region, and one that has been made for years as the U.S. military resisted efforts to get drawn into counterdrug operations. But the fact remains that, unless the vast pool of resources flowing from the drug trade is dried up, there is no hope of defeating the Taliban and al Qaeda.

One reason is that the corruption from the opium/heroin trade has also almost completely corrupted the current government, making it both more difficult to combat and more corrosive within society. Never mind the money is used to sustain an army that has few other revenue streams.

But an equally-important part of the new strategy was laid out by the Washington Post in describing the new efforts to wean the local population off of the poppy harvest. My full blog is here.

NEFA Foundation: Transcript of Latest Zawahiri Interview, "The Facts of Jihad and the Lies of the Hypocrites"

By Evan Kohlmann

The NEFA Foundation has obtained and translated a new video interview of Al-Qaida Deputy Commander Dr. Ayman al-Zawahiri produced by Al-Qaida's As-Sahab Media Foundation. During the interview, al-Zawahiri strongly criticized Iran, noting, "Iran had her image scandalized in front of the entire world, and it has become clear that it is... ready to sell out the Muslims to the invading crusaders and assist them against the Muslims." Al-Zawahiri also attacked President Barack Obama and his continued policy of drone strikes in Pakistan and Afghanistan: "I see it as a new massacre of Muslims at the hands of the criminal, liar Obama who claims to seek the start of a new relationship with the Islamic world and Muslims, while every day his hands are dripping with their blood... We are not a nation of silly imbeciles who will permit Obama to fool us with vague phrases that have no meaning, when he is just a new face of the same old American criminality... He is like a wolf whose teeth are engrossed in your flesh, his claws are scratching your face, and both are dripping with your blood."

An English transcript of Dr. al-Zawahiri's interview can be downloaded from the NEFA Foundation website.

NEFA Foundation Report (Part 3 of 3): "Militant Groups Active in the Bajaur Region"

By Evan Kohlmann

The NEFA Foundation has released the final installment of a three part report by NEFA Senior Investigator Claudio Franco titled "Militant Groups Active in the Bajaur Region." The NEFA Foundation has closely followed the evolution of the Taliban insurgency in Pakistan’s west and recent developments in the region, and the result is a series of reports aimed at covering the situation in the field. The third part of this ongoing series examines the militants operating in the Bajaur region. Although the area in question is traditionally dominated by commanders who by and large hail from the Tehrik-e-Nifaz-e-Shariat-e-Mohammed (TNSM) rank and file, the militants in Bajaur are not thehomogenous entity we may expect on the basis of media reports. The Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) is surely dominated by the figure of Faqir Mohammed and his senior role within the overall movement guarantees effective representation to the agency within the TTP. Working together with the TTP insurgents, however, there are other significant groups based in one or the other of the area’s tehsils, or districts. These groups are often Taliban inspired and linked to former TNSM cadres, to the Afghan Taliban, and/or to foreign militants. Nevertheless, there are examples of Taliban-like entities having emerged purely to ‘protect’ the interests of a specific tribal group or potentate. In these cases, the emphasis on the Taliban brand of Deobandi ideology is clearly less marked and, at times, there appears to be a dangerous proximity to criminal elements, a proximity that has surely affected the Taliban’s credibility as a quasi-institutional actor.

The third and final segment of Claudio's report can now be downloaded from the NEFA Foundation website.

Early Assessment of the elimination of Taliban commander Mehsud

By Walid Phares

Taliban commander in Pakistan, Baitullah Mehsud

As reports are confirming the elimination of Pakistan Taliban leader Baitullah Mehsud, including Pakistani sources to al Jazeera, a growing debate is widening in the international media about the "value" of that event. Some analyses are using terms such as "turning point," while other are describing it as "lethal hit against Pakistan's Taliban." Evidently, authorities in Pakistan and the United States are logically rejoicing for the fact that a tough foe is gone. Intelligence estimates will soon tell how important what that successful drone and what would the field consequences be in the next weeks, months and maybe a year or two.

But it is important that the expert community help the public and decision makers in making a fair and accurate assessment of the event with the correct understanding of the value of the tactics employed on the Pakistan's front with the Taliban; but also one should suggest that no excesses should be projected in over estimating the impact on the "war." As the discussion is ongoing in the media and inside Government circles, following are eight points of assessment to be considered:

Reality Contradicts New Hamas Spin

By Matthew Levitt

In recent interviews, Hamas leader Khaled Mashal has offered to cooperate with U.S. efforts to promote a peaceful resolution to the Arab-Israeli conflict, indicated a willingness to implement an immediate and reciprocal ceasefire with Israel, and stated that the militant group would accept and respect a Palestinian state in the West Bank and Gaza Strip based on the 1967 borders, with East Jerusalem as its capital. But the conciliatory tone of this hardline Hamas leader, who has personally been tied to acts of terrorism and is himself a U.S.-designated terrorist, is belied by the group's continued violent actions and radicalization on the ground, as well as the rise to prominence of violent extremist leaders within the group's local Shura (consultative) councils. Hamas's activities of late appear to be diametrically opposed to the compliance of Mashal's statements.

Continued Terrorist Activities: Despite talk of a ceasefire and pursuit of a peaceful resolution to the Arab-Israeli conflict, Hamas's military wing, the Izz al-Din al-Qassam Brigades, continues to engage in terrorist activities. Shooting attacks are still common along the border between Israel and the Gaza Strip, including the firing of rocket-propelled grenades and mortar shells. In late July, two Qassam Brigades operatives were killed in a "work accident" while placing explosives along the border fence near the al-Buraij refugee camp in central Gaza. A few days later, Israeli defense officials revealed that Hamas has been digging tunnels -- often used by the group to smuggle weapons and conduct kidnapping operations -- next to UN facilities, including one near a UN school in Bait Hanun that had recently collapsed. The placement of the tunnels near UN facilities was purportedly intended as a preventive measure against an Israeli attempt to destroy the tunnels.

Meanwhile, over the past several months, Palestinian security forces in the West Bank have seized at least $8.5 million in cash from arrested Hamas members who plotted to kill Fatah-affiliated government officials. Palestinian officials reported that some of the accused had "recently purchased homes adjacent to government and military installations, mainly in the city of Nablus" for the purpose of observing the movements of government and security officials. Security forces also seized uniforms of several Palestinian security forces from the accused Hamas members.

The complete article, co-authored with Washington Institute research assistant Stephanie Papa, is available here.

LTTE Leader Arrested

By Daveed Gartenstein-Ross

Yesterday, Sri Lankan officials announced the arrest of the new leader of the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Elam (LTTE), Kumaran Pathmanathan (also known as KP or Selvarasa Pathmanathan). This is a major blow to the organization, especially coming on the heels of the major battlefield defeat that it suffered in May.

Of special relevance is a profile of Pathmanathan that Rohan Gunaratna contributed to the Center for Terrorism Research's newly-released report Terrorism in the West 2008, which I co-authored. To read the entire report, click here. I have reprinted Dr. Gunaratna's profile in full below.

The New Leader of the LTTE

By Rohan Gunaratna

The LTTE has been militarily defeated, but it maintains a state of the art propaganda, fundraising, procurement, and shipping infrastructure overseas—particularly in the West. The LTTE has offices and cells in about 60 countries. About a million Sri Lankan Tamils live overseas, allowing the LTTE to establish a significant overseas presence. For a quarter century, the LTTE raised funds, procured supplies and transported them to Sri Lanka to support LTTE’s campaign of violence. The shadowy leader responsible for building that clandestine network, Kumaran Pathmanathan (also known as KP), was appointed as the new leader of the LTTE in May 2009.

KP was the principal facilitator and enabler that transformed the LTTE into one of the world’s most dangerous terrorist groups. Although KP is not a public figure, he is well known to international security and intelligence services in both the East and West. Wanted for crimes in several countries—including India, Malaysia, and Sri Lanka—KP is of security interest worldwide. Like Velupillai Prabhakaran in the past, KP will never be able to surface. To engage the services of a range of officials and specialists, KP bribed government officials and paid for other services. In the intelligence world, KP earned the same notoriety as Khalid Sheikh Mohammed, the mastermind of al Qaeda’s 9/11 operation.

Australia: Down Under Jihad?

By Walid Phares

Every time a liberal democracy was targeted by jihadi terror; from 9/11, Madrid's trains, London's subways, Holland's Van Gogh assassination, to all other terror-related arrests in France, Belgium, Canada, Germany, Italy, and Denmark, a similar question was repeated senselessly: "Why do they hate us?"

Unfortunately in all of these Western societies, the political debate about the root causes and future of jihadi violence failed to answer this seminal question. Furthermore, a stunningly compromised expertise failed its governments by dragging authorities into chronic misinterpretation of what is happening and what to do about it. One more time, the experiment is repeating itself in Australia. Here is why:

As in the United States, the United Kingdom, France, and other Western democracies, law enforcement and counterterrorism agencies have been efficient in monitoring the threat, swift in responding and lucky in uprooting networks planning terror. With the exceptions of the first strikes of 2001 in New York, 2004 in Madrid and 2005 in London, police and security teams have been able to stop the plots before they are executed; knock on wood so far. But these law enforcement heroes are operating under the aegis of questionable government strategies, or rather non-strategies, with dramatic consequences. The latest arrests made in Melbourne, Australia, are another example.

Ongoing Firefight in Central Java

By Kenneth Conboy

As of 2300 local time, details are emerging about a firefight at an apparent terrorist safe house in Temanggung district, Central Java. Police counter-terrorist commandos initiated a raid at around 1700 local time, but were kept at bay for fear that explosives were stored in the house. Shots were being exchanged for more than four hours, but it now appears like at least four persons have been captured, one of whom may be Jemaah Islamiyah fugitive Noordin Top. If this proves to be the case, it will be a huge gain for Indonesian security forces, who have been struggling to make headway in the investigation of the 17 July twin hotel bombings in Jakarta.

Ongoing Firefight in Central Java

By Kenneth Conboy

Since the 17 July twin hotel bombings in Jakarta, the Indonesian security forces have been scrambling to determine the identies of the two suicide bombers and those who helped plan and carry out the attacks. Most observers quickly pointed fingers at Jemaah Islamiyah fugitive Noordin Top, who was largely responsible for organizing suicide attacks in 2003, 2004, and 2005. This evening at 1700 local time, the police counter-terrorist unit, Special Detachment 88, initiated a raid against a suspected terrorist safe house in Temanggung district, Central Java province. As of the present time (2120 local time), shots are still being exchanged with those holding out inside. The media is reporting an 80 percent chance that Noordin Top is among those who was in the house. If he is killed or captured, this would be a major step forward in Indonesia's counter-terrorist campaign.

Pakistan Proscribes Terror Tanzeems, Frees their Leaders !

By Animesh Roul

Pakistan is always full of surprises. In dramatic turn of events, the Pakistani government has reportedly announced early this week that it had proscribed some 25 terror organizations, support groups and radical religious entities under the Anti-Terrorism Act of 1997, in the last nine years, including the Jamaat-ud-Dawa, Jaish-e-Mohammed and Lashker-e-Taiba, Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan, Tehrik-e-Nifaz-e-Shariah Muahammadi and Al-Akhtar Trust.

But ironically, the government remains silent over the leaders of these terror outfits who are still free to reincarnate, regroup and resurge with another name and carry out their subversive activities in Pakistan and beyond. Among the outlawed terror groups, at least two are Kashmir centric terror outfits (JeM and LeT were outlawed in 2002) while others are Pakistan based groups that have been involved in suicide bombings, sectarian violence, assassinations and attacks against Western interests in Pakistan.

Pakistan has banned the Islamic charity Jamaat-ud-Dawa, which actually the front for the LeT in December 2008. But the chief Hafiz Saeed is a free man now after detained for six months. The reason for Islamabad’s reluctance to act against Saeed is ‘lack of evidence’ against the Mumbai attack mastermind.

In my earlier write ups (e.g. on Asia Security Initiative Blog, "Rude or Reality”: Indo-Pak Trust Deficit Continues") I have raised this issue that Pakistan has never punished Islamic ideologues.

“Saeed is one of the prized ‘Non State Actors’ for Pakistan who acts on behalf of government. He has garnered huge followings in Pakistan and still a revered Islamic ideologue in Punjab and Sindh. For many Pakistanis (politicians, businessmen and among diaspora Pakistanis) Hafeez Saeed is a humanitarian activist devoted for greater cause of Islam. He equals another ideologue and wanted terrorist, Jaish-e-Muhammad’s (JeM) Masood Azhar in stature. Both are notorious for their inspiring hate speeches in Islamic conclaves.”

Besides Saeed and Azhar, another terror leader Malik Ishaq, a founding member of deadly anti shia and al qaeda affiliate Lashkar- e- Jhangvi (LeJ) is waiting in wings to be freed soon. We also have seen the flip-flops in the cases of Tehreek-i-Nifaz-i-Shirhat-i-Mohammadi chief Maulana Sufi Mohammad and Lal Masjid cleric Maulana Abdul Aziz.

So a word of caution for India which expects Pakistan to act against Saeed or terror infrastructures in Pakistan Administered Kashmir (PAK), if it provides evidence after evidence against him:

‘Don’t ever live with that dream’ and ‘it is not always good to play noble soul with a country with questionable record against Kashmir centric terrorists.’

While Pakistan's anti-taliban offensive has been commendable so far, its actions against Kashmir-centric terrorists are questionable.

The Changing Language on Terrorism and the Challenges Ahead

By Douglas Farah

Today's Washington Post gives an interesting look at how the Obama administration will be redefining the fight against terrorism, as well as changing the language used.

Two things seem clear. One is that the "war on terror" designation, never very useful in my opinion, has been retired. The other is that there will be much less identifying of terrorism with radical Islam, and more generic phrases like "violent extremists" will be much more in use.

Identifying who the enemy is by a name that identifies his/her reason for action is more useful. Certainly not all Muslims are terrorists nor is all terrorism driven by an interpretation of Islam. But Islamists justify their actions in a particular, theologically coherent way that makes them identifiable. That group has carried out most of the worst attacks on the United States in the past decade, and so is an identifiable cohort of actors.

Regardless of how one identifies terrorists, the idea is to use more tools in the U.S. government tool box to combat terrorism, something that is important going forward. What seems to be lacking at this point is a clear articulation of what U.S. strategic interests are and how these multiple tools will be used. Maybe that will be forthcoming when the policy itself is unveiled.

"It needs to be much more than a kinetic effort, an intelligence, law enforcement effort. It has to be much more comprehensive," said John Brennan, Obama's chief counterterrorism adviser, who will address the Center for Strategic and International Studies on Thursday. "This is not a 'war on terror.' . . . We cannot let the terror prism guide how we're going to interact and be involved in different parts of the world."

That is true, but it is hard to decipher what that will mean. One of the key places where the new strategy will be tested is in Somalia, where Secretary Clinton has met with the provisional leadership and promised increased support. But so far the promises seem to involve only ammunition and logistical support and somewhat vague and unfulfillable promises to sanction Eritrea for support of al Shabaab in Somalia. My full blog is here.

NEFA Foundation: Al-Qaida Clashes with Yemeni Forces in Mareb

By Evan Kohlmann

The NEFA Foundation has obtained and translated a new communiqué from Al Qaida’s network in Yemen claiming responsibility for a recent violent clash with Yemeni security forces in the Mareb province. According to the statement, as a result of the battle, Al-Qaida captured seven Yemeni soldiers, killed other soldiers, seized military equipment and weapons, and destroyed five tanks. AQIY further boasted that the Yemeni government has “gone too far in the Valley, and opened by itself a new front and a new war that did not exist before.”

An English translation of the communique can be downloaded from the NEFA Foundation website.

Is Islam > First Amendment at the State Department?

By Bill West

This is the First Amendment to the U.S. Constitution:

Congress shall make no law respecting an establishment of religion, or prohibiting the free exercise thereof; or abridging the freedom of speech, or of the press; or the right of the people peaceably to assemble, and to petition the Government for a redress of grievances.

The Establishment Clause of the First Amendment deals with the first sixteen words. Congress is prohibited from making laws respecting the establishment of religion or the “free exercise” thereof. This is the core of America’s separation of church and state doctrine. While the wording of the Amendment specifies Congress, Supreme Court decisions have, over the years, included Executive Branch agencies of government in the prohibition, since Congress controls the funding of those agencies. Additionally, the 14th Amendment (equal protection) and related court decisions have applied this prohibition to the States. Essentially, no branch of government is supposed to be involved in establishing, favoring or promoting any particular religion. Such activities would be a violation of the Establishment Clause.

The Investigative Project on Terrorism (IPT) has reported extensively about the ongoing case of the Tarek ibn Ziyad Academy (TIZA), a Minnesota public charter school that is run by the Muslim American Society (MAS) and appears to function as an Islamic sectarian school. Those reports may be viewed here, here, here and here. This is one current example of Islam being allowed to encroach into the public domain at taxpayer expense.

But TIZA is not the only example. The Federal government is also pursuing programs, with public funding allocated by Congress, that clearly favor the religion of Islam. Among these efforts are programs conducted by the US Department of State (DOS). The IPT reported on DOS aligning itself with known Islamists who publicly support radical and even terrorist elements within the US and abroad. This program involved DOS funding and oversight for two Palestinian television crews to come to the US to create documentaries related to “life of Muslims in America.” As part of this effort, the Palestinian “TV crew will conduct interviews with local Muslim leaders and individuals, visit Muslim institutions and organizations...”. Quite arguably, this program involves DOS expending taxpayer money to highlight and favor Islam.

Seemingly at odds with this pro-Islam posture is a report in the Washington Post on July 30 that identifies a long-running rift between the US Agency for International Development (USAID), an agency within DOS, and the Inspector General’s Office (OIG) for USAID. This rift relates to proposed USAID programs that would support, highlight and enhance Islamic organizations and other Muslim concerns. USAID OIG and agency attorneys took the position that such programs would violate the First Amendment’s Establishment Clause. In the Washington Post report, there is this quote from the USAID legal counsel:

"...the legal test goes beyond that to [include] endorsement of religion, indoctrination of religions, excessive entanglement with religion. We have to try to accomplish our secular purpose while still not violating these legal principles."

This is a clear statement of a legal position that USAID will not engage in programs that include “endorsement of religion, indoctrination of religion, excessive entanglement of religion.”

This legal posture by USAID attorneys apparently does not transfer to other DOS organizations. Effective June 23, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton appointed Farah Anwar Pandith to the position of “Special Representative to Muslim Communities.” The DOS website section related to Pandith states this as the mission of her office:

“Her office is responsible for executing Secretary Clinton’s vision for engagement with Muslims around the world on a people-to-people and organizational level. She reports directly to the Secretary of State.”

There are no similar Special Representatives for Jewish, Christian, Buddhist, Hindu or other religious communities.

On July 9, the Secretary of State’s office issued a cable to US embassies and consular posts around the world. The subject of this cable was “PUBLIC DIPLOMACY RESOURCES FOR RAMADAN 2009.” Ramadan is one of Islam’s most important religious observances that takes place during the ninth month of the Islamic calendar. Ramadan celebrates the time when, according to Islam, the Quran was revealed to the prophet Muhammad. The DOS cable directs that the Bureau of International Information Programs (IIP) “has assembled a range of innovative and traditional tools to support Posts' outreach activities during the Islamic holy month of Ramadan. This cable highlights these tools and requests Posts to report on use of IIP programs and products for Ramadan programming to Regional Bureau PD offices and IIP Geographic Office Directors.” Further, “Post should refer to local religious authorities to confirm dates.”

The DOS cable describes numerous “tools” developed by the IIP for State Department posts and personnel to utilize during Ramadan. These include books, power point presentations, essays, posters and speakers related to Islam in America, mosques in America, Muslim life in America, “building on faith” (Islam) in America and similar topics.

There do not appear to be similar religious outreach programs within the Department of State for Jews, Christians, Buddhists, Hindus or any other religious group. It is clear the US Department of State, particularly at the senior levels, has an institutional affinity for Islam and Muslims. Legal officers within at least one division of DOS have raised serious Establishment Clause concerns about governmental programs with a religious focus. However, it appears no less than the Secretary of State has decided to ignore those concerns.

NEFA Foundation: Taliban Media Wing Struggling Following Release of Captured U.S. Soldier Video

By Evan Kohlmann

The NEFA Foundation has released a new chart by NEFA Senior Investigator Evan Kohlmann titled, "Charting the Ongoing Drought in Taliban Media." The chart helps illustrate how, over the past few weeks, the number of daily communiqués and statements issued online by the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan (the Taliban) has been dramatically curtailed without any explanation from the Taliban. Though neither the U.S. government nor U.S. military have commented on the issue, the major dip in Taliban communications activity seems to have occurred directly following the Taliban capture of U.S. soldier Pfc. Bowe Bergdahl and the release of an Internet video of Bergdahl.

A copy of the chart can be downloaded from the NEFA Foundation website.

Cyberwar Realities

By Aaron Mannes

This morning, The Washington Times ran an op-ed on cyberwar I co-wrote with my friend (and former boss) Jim Hendler. Much has been written about cyber-war, but very little of it is grounded in reality. Many over-hype the issue while others discount it completely. Much of the misinformation about cyberwar revolves around denial of services attacks, which are serious criminal activity but not much of a national security concern - we've written on this topic in the wake of Russian conflicts with Estonia and Georgia.

Here we try to inject a bit of sober and informed reason into the discussion.

Wednesday, August 5, 2009
Profile of a real cyberwar

Aaron Mannes and James Hendler

The denial-of-service (DoS) attacks that started on July 4 garnered typical headlines about cyberwar, but in fact, from a technical standpoint, those "attacks" may be the opposite of real cyberwar. A much less noticed report in Israel's leading daily, Ha'aretz, on Israel's operations against Iran's nuclear program may give greater insight into how cyberwar actually will work.

It is no secret that several countries, including the United States, China, Russia and Israel, have examined cyberwar capabilities. What those capabilities might be or how a cyberwar might look are shrouded in mystery. The denial-of-service attacks that made headlines are not it.

Those attacks are nothing more than the sending of enormous numbers of requests to servers, preventing Web sites from responding to legitimate traffic and interfering with e-mail. Competent information-technology professionals usually can mitigate these attacks, and even when successful, their impact -- from a national security standpoint -- is marginal.

The DoS attacks are carried out by botnets, thousands of compromised computers that can be commanded to simultaneously send e-mails or visit a Web site. The botnets are built using malware that attacks individual computers, often simply taking advantage of software that has not downloaded current security patches. Computers linked to government agencies have been compromised and have become part of botnets -- but this does not necessarily have tremendous security implications. Real cyberwar may require the opposite of the skills required for the DoS attacks that make headlines.

According to the article in Ha'aretz, Israeli intelligence has sought to systematically insert malware that can damage information systems within the Iranian nuclear program. It is believed those systems are not connected to the broader Internet and that the malware is inserted into equipment sold to the Iranian government.

This is the probable future cyberwar. Modern societies are complex networks of people, information systems and equipment. Enormous advantages will be obtained by powers that can quickly identify and neutralize critical nodes within the systems.

Read the complete article here.

Carolina Jihad Suspect Talked of Domestic Attacks

By The Investigative Project on Terrorism (IPT)

RALEIGH, N.C. – A North Carolina man accused of conspiring to commit terrorist acts abroad grew so frustrated at his inability to carry out his plans that he vented about committing attacks in America, an FBI agent testified Tuesday.

Agent Michael Sutton testified during a detention hearing for Daniel Patrick Boyd, Boyd's sons Zakariya and Dylan, and co-defendants Hysen Sherifi, Ziyad Yaghi, Anes Subasic and Mohammad Omar Aly Hassan. The men were arrested last week and charged in a conspiracy to commit terrorist acts abroad. If convicted, each could be sentenced to life in prison.

On Wednesday, U.S. Magistrate Judge William Webb ordered the defendants held without bond pending their trial.

According to the indictment, Boyd and his son Zakariya, along with Yaghi and Hassan, traveled to Israel in June 2007. The men wanted to die as shahid "that is, as martyrs in furtherance of violent jihad," the indictment alleges. But they came back about a month later, unsuccessful in their attempt to carry out jihad.

A year earlier, the indictment alleges, Boyd tried to get into Gaza "in order to introduce his son to individuals who also believed that violent jihad was a personal obligation on the part of every good Muslim."

During his testimony, Sutton cited comments Boyd made that were recorded by the government or reported by witnesses.

"If I don't leave this country soon," Sutton quoted Boyd saying in one, "I am going to make jihad right here in America."

In another conversation outside a convenience store, Boyd noticed a group of Humvees.

"We should take them out right now," Boyd said. He made a similar comment about a North Carolina state helicopter he saw flying over head, Sutton said a witness told him.

The indictment makes no allegations about any domestic terrorist plot by the defendants. They did buy large amounts of rifles and ammunition and conducted training on private property in Caswell County, N.C. this past June and July.

They also found a fatwa, or religious edict, in Boyd's house saying Muslims have "an individual duty to kill Americans and their allies."

Boyd often made references to jihad, in one recording saying "Allah knows I love jihad."

Read the rest of our live coverage from Raleigh here.

Counterproliferation in the 21st Century

By Michael Jacobson

This afternoon, the Washington Institute hosted Ambassador Ken Brill, the director of the National Counterproliferation Center, as part of a speaker series with senior national security officials.

Here is an excerpt of his remarks:

In an era of globalization – where advanced scientific and technical knowledge and capabilities have spread beyond the major powers and where states are not the only global actors that matter – we must understand that the challenge of countering the proliferation of WMD has taken on new dimensions.

WMD is a 20th century phenomenon being made more complex by these 21st Century realities. If you Google the words “how to build a nuclear bomb,” you get more than 6.5 million results. Even when you subtract for the cranks, kooks and uninformed, the results are still a very significant number. The knowledge is out there, the expertise is out there, the drive – seen most clearly in states like North Korea and terrorist groups like Al-Qa’ida – is out there – and the materials can be found.

To be effective, we must adapt our approaches for countering WMD proliferation to the realities of the 21st Century. The WMD oligopoly – that is to say, where only a few states had the means to produce WMD – is a thing of the past.

We now live in what is close to an open market, where many states have the scientific and technological capabilities required to produce WMD and where networks like A.Q. Khan’s – the subject of The Nuclear Jihadist – and other non-state actors can distribute and acquire a wide range of capabilities once reserved for states. The destructive power of WMD, as one scholar has noted, is spreading downwards and outwards.

But let’s be clear – this globalized world does not exacerbate and complicate just nuclear threats. Biological capabilities, as the National Academy’s National Research Council wrote in 2006, have grown and spread even more dramatically.

To read the entire prepared remarks, click here.

"Boku Haraam," first wave of Nigerian Taliban, is over: Wait for the next one

By Walid Phares

al Qaeda Graffiti in Kano, northenr Nigeria

The renewal of violence in the northern provinces of Nigeria brings this oil producing country to the brink of "Talibanization," threatening not only the precarious ethnic and religious makeup of the most populous African state but also the entire region, from Chad to Senegal.

The fight between the now-called "Nigerian Taliban" and the governmental forces took place this week within a country whose borders are 300 miles from where President Barack Obama stood inside the Ghana Parliament to address Africa's "problems." Unfortunately last month, the president didn't use mention words such as “Taliban,” “jihadists,” “Shariah,” “salafists,” or any term indicating that Nigeria and 10 other African countries are suffering from a real invasion, fueled by a totalitarian ideology. That was a miss that came back to haunt the international public opinion as dramatic pictures of the bloodshed were disseminated by the news agencies.

Core Al Qaeda Under Pressure and Changing Tactics

By Douglas Farah

Several seemingly-unrelated events seem to me to be important and pointing toward important new directions in the struggle against radical Islamist groups. The first is the optimistic report by CBS News that al Qaeda is publicly acknowledging the damage to its cadres caused by drone-fired Hellfire missiles.

In the communique posted online, al Qaeda leaders say "the harm is alarming, the matter is very grave," due to the drone attacks. "So many brave commanders have been snatched away by the hands of the enemies. So many homes have been leveled with their people inside them by planes that are unheard, unseen and unknown."

That pressure on core al Qaeda may be one of the reasons its affiliated groups have been ratcheting up their activities in other parts of the world, to show the organization is still alive and well and able to carry out attacks. Or perhaps the original core AQ strategy of spinning of large numbers of autonomous but sympathetic groups is gaining more traction.

What is clear is that the focus of attention for the new Islamist groups-either because they targeted the region or simply found room to operate there in regions that are sympathetic to Islamists and have little state control-is Sub-Saharan Africa. My full blog is here.

NEFA Foundation: Text of Web Communique Claiming Jakarta Bombings

By Evan Kohlmann

The NEFA Foundation has obtained a communiqué from "the Tandzim Al-Qaida of Indonesia" claiming responsibility for the July 17, 2009, bombings at the J.W. Marriott and Ritz-Carlton hotels in Jakarta that killed seven and injured more than fifty people. Purportedly posted on behalf of Noordin Mohammad Top, the communiqué stated that the attack sought to avenge "the deeds of America and its accomplices against our brothers and sisters," target the Manchester United soccer team, and act "as a soother and healer for the hearts of the Muslims who are oppressed and persecuted all over the world.” According to the FBI, "Noordin Mohammad Top is reportedly an officer, recruiter, bombmaker, and trainer for the Jemaah Islamiah (JI) group that was involved in the bombings of a Bali nightclub, a Jakarta hotel, and the Australian Embassy in Indonesia between 2002 and 2004."

An English translation of the communique can be downloaded from the NEFA Foundation website.

Imam Anwar Awlaki Back Again, Saluting Al-Qaida "Victories" in Yemen

By Evan Kohlmann

The NEFA Foundation has obtained a statement issued by Anwar al Awlaki, an Al-Qaida-linked U.S. citizen, in which al Awlaki celebrated the "humiliating defeat" suffered by the Yemeni government in recent clashes with mujahideen. Al Awlaki said, "The first face to face fight between the army and the mujahideen ended in a resounding victory for the mujahideen. May Allah bless them with further victories. The army pulled out after asking for a truce from the mujahideen. May this be the beginning of the greatest Jihad, the Jihad of the Arabian Peninsula that would free the heart of the Islamic world from the tyrants who are deceiving the ummah and standing between us and victory.”

A copy of al-Awlaki's statement can be accessed from the NEFA Foundation website.