A Car Bomb in Southern Thailand and Other Recent Trends

By Zachary Abuza

Today, a 40-50 kg car bomb in the southern Thai city of Narathiwat detonated in front of a crowded restaurant during lunch hour. Though fortunately no one was killed, at least 42 people were wounded, 7 critically. It was the second car bomb this year.

Over 3,700 people have been killed in southern Thailand since an Islamist insurgency began in January 2004. Many thousands more have been wounded and Thai government officials recently acknowledged that several thousand children have been orphaned in the conflict. Though the current government has claimed that violence has gone down, there actually has been a steady up-tick since 2008.

Since the current government of Prime Minister Abhisit assumed power on 15 December 2008, more than 280 people have been killed and 520 people wounded. [My figures are conservative as they are based on open source reporting and not official government statistics]. Those dead include 15 police, 30 soldiers, 15 paramilitary rangers, 184 civilians a monk, and 13 teachers. Over 230 police, soldiers and rangers have been wounded. In that period of time there have been at least 117 bombings or roadside IED detonations, 11 beheadings and the corpses of victims have been desecrated 11 times.

Though car bombs are infrequently used in southern Thailand, where smaller motorcycle bombs and IEDs of roughly 5 kg are more common, there has been a trend this month towards large bombs, in the 20 kg range. For example, 20 KG IEDs were used on 19th, 20th and twice on the 21st while on 8 August a 20 kg IED hidden by the road was recovered by government forces.

While insurgents routinely employ time-delayed bombs to target security forces responding to attacks, there has been one other new trend in IEDs. On 8 August, a military bomb disposal unit found 6 IEDs fashioned out of fire extinguishers that had been wired together and connected to a single car battery. Similarly constructed bombs were used or recovered two more times this month..

Despite these trends in IED use, size and composition, the vast majority of the people killed or wounded in the insurgency are shot.

In another trend, bold frontal assaults on police and military check-points are up dramatically from a year ago. This probably portends confidence amongst the insurgents in their manpower and arsenal.

Thai security forces remained hampered by their inability to successfully prosecute suspected insurgents; Over 80 percent of those captured are released. As such, they have resorted to EJKs and other human rights abuses, further alienating the majority Malay Muslim community. While the government has recently pledged more development funds for the restive south, the insurgency has never been about development. Sadly, as long as the conflict remains confined to the southernmost provinces, it will remain a low priority for the government, consumed with elite political machinations in Bangkok. And while Southern Thailand remains the single most lethal conflict in Southeast Asia, it remains a low priority for America and its allies in the region.