The Myth of "Acting Alone"

By Douglas Farah

Perhaps none of the generally-accepted conventional wisdom items on the recent jihadist attacks is as dangerous as the constantly-repeated refrain that the individuals "acted alone." While the acts may have been carried out by individuals, they are all part and parcel of the broader Islamist movement to recreate the caliphate as Allah's kingdom on earth. There are push and pull factors and actors that part of a coherent whole that work with these individuals to make their actions possible.

There are catalyzing agents, such as Anwar al-Aulaqi, who seems to have had a direct hand in galvanizing the primary actors in both the Ft. Hood massacre and the Christmas airline attack. And there are individuals who seek to be galvanized.

Loneliness and alienation seem to push certain people toward seeking a spiritual experience, and certainly not solely in Islam. But one of the great structures looking for such individuals is the Muslim Brotherhood and its many, many institutions.

As the Global Muslim Brotherhood Daily Report (free subscription required) reports, Umar Farouk Abdulmutallab, who has been charged with attempting to blow up a U.S. airliner, was president of the campus Islamic Society, but the group says he never expressed any extremist views…..The British Federation of Student Islamic Societies confirms Abdulmutallab led its UCL chapter between 2006 and 2007, but it insists it heard nothing to suggest he supported illegal acts. In fact, a spokesman says, during his tenure the society worked to forge closer ties with student groups of all faiths and no faith.

But wait. The Islamic Society is part of the Federation of Student Islamic Societies in the U.K. and Ireland (FOSIS), founded in 1962 and described as an umbrella grouping of most major university Islamic societies in the U.K.

What is the Brotherhood's basic message, as written by its founder and chief ideologue? That the world is in a state of darkness and utter sin, and the more uncomfortable and alienated one is, the closer the individual is to finding the truth in Islam.

So, you have lonely, alienated and unhappy people, in effect being told that their alienation is a sign that they are close to Allah and on their way to salvation. What is required of them? To use whatever means available to attack the current system perpetrated by infidels, and bring about a new, Islamic world.

Not everyone who joins the Brotherhood ends up committing acts of terrorism. But it is certainly one of the key gateways to radicalization, and one that provides a community and support structure for those who do. My full blog is here.

Freedom in 2010

By Roderick Jones

I’ve previously written about the importance I felt the book Daemon has with regard to considering future warfare, insurgency and terrorism threats. The descriptions within the book of what could be future battle-spaces and particularly, the use of ‘D-Space’, a mixed reality environment, all seem to be arriving by the minute. Yelp’s Monocle as used on the iPhone is a pretty good first-gen version of the “D-Space” described in Daemon. Other themes surrounding the use of gaming as a social organizer and the fragility of western corporate systems and government to well-aimed insurgencies also seem apt.

Therefore, as the New Year approaches it is worth noting that the sequel to Daemon arrives on January 7th 2010 - Freedom. I was fortunate enough to receive an advanced copy and recommend it to anyone who’s job is to think about the future of conflict. The ides in Freedom continue to be engaging at both a tactical and strategic level. The move into virtual conflict holds both opportunities and vulnerabilities for the west. Considering the ideas presented by Daniel Suarez is an excellent place to start.

Why Did the Bush Administration Send Hardcore Terrorists Back to Al-Qaida?

By Evan Kohlmann

One of the most troubling aspects of the recent explosion of activity by Al-Qaida in Yemen (otherwise known as "Al-Qaida in the Arabian Peninsula") is the role being played by Saudi nationals who are former detainees in Guantanamo Bay, Cuba. At least eleven former Saudi Gitmo prisoners who were sent back home by the Bush administration between 2003-2007 have promptly rejoined Al-Qaida in Yemen -- including individuals who made no secret of their intentions upon being released. The biographies of these men are all included in my NEFA Foundation report from earlier this year, "The Eleven: Saudi Guantanamo Veterans Returning to the Fight.” I reprint the conclusions of my report here:

In at least four of the eleven cases-Fahd al-Jutayli, Murtadha Magram, Adnan al-Sayegh, and Ibrahim ar-Rabeish-ARB panels in Guantanamo Bay specifically found that the men continued to represent "a threat to the United States and its allies" only months prior to their transfer from custody in Gitmo back home to Saudi Arabia. Furthermore, it is almost inexplicable that the U.S. government would even consider releasing, albeit, a mid-ranking Afghan-trained Al-Qaida recruit such as Yusuf al-Shehri-who has happily advertised to his interrogators that "he considers all Americans his enemy" and that "he will continue to fight them until he dies"-except under the most stringent of conditions. Or, alternatively, we have the case of Murtadha Magram-who boasted that had gone "to the jihad to die", that he "wanted to be a martyr for the cause", and that he "hates Americans and all non-believers." These hardly sound like obvious choices for early parole from Guantanamo... In at least one regrettable instance, if the account of the New York Times is to be believed, a terror suspect now thought to be quite dangerous (Mishal al-Shedoky) was released and sent home to Saudi Arabia from Guantanamo, primarily in order to help win Saudi political support for the botched U.S. invasion of Iraq.

That's correct: the U.S. military repeatedly warned the Bush administration in advance that almost half of the former Saudi Gitmo detainees who have rejoined Al-Qaida continued to represent active threats to the United States--and yet they were released anyway, evidently for political reasons. There are serious questions here that must be immediately addressed by those within the former Bush administration responsible for this inept decision-making process.

Pakistan: Sectarian Terror and Killing Ritual on Muharram

By Animesh Roul

Annual Shia festivity of Youm- e- Ashura (also known as Muharram in the region) has been marred by suicide blasts and sectarian violence in Pakistan. The epicenters of the latest terror violence were centered around port city of Karachi and Muzafarbad in the capital city of Pakistan Administered Kashmir targeting Shia community. Karachi blast was fourth in a series of attacks targeting Shia processions and gatherings in the last three days. The suicide attack took place near the Light House at Jinnah Road. Besides deaths and destructions caused by the blast itself, the resulting mob violence that spread around Karachi city estimated to have destroyed nearly 500 shops and many vehicles.

Mourning processions by minority Shiite Muslims in Pakistan are often attacked by majority Sunni militants.

•December 28: A suicide bomber blew himself up near a Shiite mourning march in Karachi killing at least 33 people (according to latest fatality count) and injuring several others.

•December 27: At least 15 people were killed and over 100 others injured in suicide blasts near the Pir Alam Shah Bukhari Tomb, a place for Shia prayers in Muzaffarabad, provincial capital of Pakistan Administered Kashmir (PAK). Another suicide attack however, was foiled elsewhere in the Bagh district in PAK that day.

•December 26: A remote controlled bomb blast injured nearly 26 Shia mourners at Khalifat Chowk in North Nazimabad Town of Karachi.

•December 26: Another bomb blast in Orangi Town in Karachi left 24 people injured. Angry mob had resorted to arsons and anti-government protests in reaction to the blast.

In Pakistan, pro Sunni terrorist groups used to carry out deadly attacks in regular intervals against minority Shia populations. Although no terrorist outfit has claimed responsibility so far, the needle of suspicion now is on the Sunni centric Tehreek-i-Taliban Pakistan and its affiliate anti-Shia outfit Lashkar- e- Jhangvi. According to a recent circular distributed by the Criminal Investigation Department (CID) of Pakistan, TTP’s newly floated suicide wing 'Mujahid Abu Faraz' has reportedly been assigned to carry out country wide terrorist attacks during Ashura ceremony. The TTP leader Qari Hussain Mehmood has formed the group to avenge the death of Abu Faraz (a.k.a. Nasim Shah), a Taliban commander in Swat). Faraz, a close associate of Mullah Fazlullah, was killed during a recent fight (On 03 December) in the Kabal area of Swat.

Read More »

Al-Qaida in Yemen Claims Responsibility for Christmas Day Airline Terror Plot

By Evan Kohlmann

Al-Qaida's network in Yemen (otherwise known as "Al-Qaida in the Arabian Peninsula") has issued an official communique claiming responsibility for the failed terrorist bomb plot targeting a Delta/Northwest airliner traveling from Amsterdam to Detroit on Christmas day. The communique included original photographs of would-be bomber Umar Farouk Abdulmutallab grinning in front of an Al-Qaida banner. The group acknowledged that the device had failed to properly detonate, but promised that it would "continue on this path until we achieve success." The statement also congratulated Ft. Hood shooter Maj. Malik Nidal Hasan and urged fellow Muslims to follow in his footsteps and kill American soldiers.

A complete translation of the communique from AQIY/AQAP can be accessed via the NEFA Foundation website.

Al-Qaida in Yemen Responds to Airstrikes with New Threats

By Evan Kohlmann

Al-Qaida's network in Yemen has issued an official response to the airstrike earlier this week on a suspected Al-Qaida gathering in the region of Shabwah that reportedly killed up to 30 people, including a number of senior Al-Qaida operatives. The group threatened that it would not allow "the slaughter of Muslim women and children to pass without taking vengeance for them, Allah willing. We call upon all Yemeni tribes... and the people of the Arabian Peninsula to confront the crusaders and their clients in the Arabian Peninsula by attacking military bases, embassies, intelligence agents, and naval fleets occupying the waters of the Arabian Peninsula."

A complete translation of Al-Qaida's response is available on the NEFA Foundation website.

Al-Qaida in Yemen: Target Airports/Airplanes With Small Explosives

By Evan Kohlmann

On October 29, 2009, Al-Qaida's network in Yemen (AQIY) released the 11th edition of their official magazine Sada al-Malahim, which included an article written by the top commander of AQIY, Abu Basir al-Wahishi, titled "War is a Trick." In the article, al-Wahishi advised would-be Al-Qaida members on how to utilize all available weapons to kill "apostates" and Western nationals. He urged them to target "airports in the western crusade countries that participated in the war against Muslims; or on their planes, or in their residential complexes or their subways."

A translation of the relevant excerpts from Abu Basir's article can be accessed via the NEFA Foundation website.

ForeignPolicy.com: "No, Madam Secretary: The System Is Not Working"

By Evan Kohlmann

In the wake of the failed Al-Qaida terror plot targeting a Delta/Northwest airliner traveling from Amsterdam to Detroit, I've published a new piece over at ForeignPolicy.com, titled "No, Madam Secretary: The System is Not Working."

As someone who generally considers himself a supporter of the Obama administration -- and who recognizes the exceptionally complex and at times intractable nature of the problems it faces -- I watched with a sense of deep dismay on Sunday as Department of Homeland Security Secretary Janet Napolitano attempted to defend the handling of would-be terrorist Umar Farouk Abdulmutallab. According to Napolitano, the fact that ordinary passengers stepped in and intervened to stop Abdulmutallab's failed effort to down a U.S. airliner is a positive sign that the "system is working smoothly." In fact, nothing could be farther from the truth -- and this fiasco is only further evidence of the ongoing mismanagement of U.S. national security. Although this breakdown began during the chaos of the last Bush administration, Obama and his advisors are now looking down the barrel at their own "Brownie" moment -- when Bush publicly praised Federal Emergency Management Agency Director Michael Brown for his response to the Hurricane Katrina disaster. The current administration does not seem to grasp that the solution lies in finally fixing the system, not more empty excuses or a further expansion of ineffective bureaucratic policies...

The whole article can be viewed at ForeignPolicy.com.

Detroit Attack: Adaptive threats meet tired security response

By Roderick Jones

Stagnant Counter-Terrorism response

The visible US response to the latest attempted terrorist attack on the country, has so far sadly conformed to past mistakes and strategic blunders. The attempted attack by the Nigerian Umar Farouk Abdulmutallab as the NorthWest Airlines flight 253 was coming into land at Detroit airport has led to an increase in security by the TSA, which has so far taken the following form: restrictions surrounding in-flight entertainment on International flights coming into the USA, extra screening on flights coming into the USA, extra screening at domestic airports, restrictions on moving around the cabin one-hour before landing and discussion of restrictions on taking electronics on the airplane and of course the default extra screening of baby food, which seems to happen after every terrorist event. This is eloquently described as, 'TSA Security Burlesque' by an Atlantic Commentator.

It could reasonably be claimed that most people regard the security regime surrounding air-travel as at best a nuisance and at worst a catastrophic drain on economic resources. In large part the west's terrorist opponents have won this battle. Low-cost terrorist attempts at aviation infrastructure create enormous security reactions - truly exhausting and bleeding the west's financial and psychological capital to resist. Nobody who has suffered through a US domestic flight since 9/11 would argue the airline industry is in good-shape. As a key-component in global economic growth destroying the aviation industry is a good place for a nihilistic terrorist movement to start.

What has caused this? At this point, it is the reaction of United States Department of Homeland Security to any terrorist event involving aviation [which then spreads throughout the global aviation system], which heightens the operational success of militant Islamist terrorists against aviation targets. The noted, counter-insurgency expert David Kilcullen expertly puts this into focus [in his book Accidental Guerrilla] by highlighting the detrimental effects of US counter-terrorism policy. In short al-Qaeda does not represent an existential threat to the US, it has no path to victory looking at any reasonable scenario including the use of WMD-- but the US can defeat itself by unnecessary over-reaction and a fundamental misunderstanding of basic risk management and terrorist theory. Once again this is being demonstrated by the events in Detroit and the DHS reaction, which creates more disruption than the attack itself, destroys DHS and US credibility by mandating absurd responses, which focus on securing events after they have happened (for example, turning off in-flight entertainment because passengers can see a map - passengers can still look out the window or use their watches).

If the US and other states are to contain terrorism they needs to adopt the more thoughtful responses, which have been developed within and outside of government. The work of inside/outside experts such as Killcullen largely moves in one direction conclusive direction -- less is more and multi-agency approach is paramount. The central thesis of Kilcullen's book is that the west creates 'accidental guerrilla's' by using military force and thus creating 'guerrilla anti-bodies'.

"The threat is that a zero-risk approach to terrorism, one that seeks to drive the chances of another 9/11 attack down to zero, might cause Western countries to take well-intentioned precautionary measures that would be so divisive internationally, and so repressive domestically, that we would end up destroying our way of life in order to save it, compromising freedoms and values to guard against a relatively remote risk" [Killcullen, Accidental Guerilla's]

I would simply add to his by arguing that excessive security regimes within western countries similarly have the capacity to create accidental guerrillas out of all of us.

Information War

One area, which cries out for some instant attention is the west's utter failure with regard to information war. Political leaders and western media quickly jump onto terrorist events and inflate them giving them their potency. At this point surely, it would be in everyone's interests to try some kind of self-censorship system around these events to prevent the kind of over-heated commentary, from politicians and media figures, which exactly meets terrorist aims. The UK maintains the D-Notice system, which is a request system from the government to news editors to constrain the reporting of certain sensitive information. This may be impractical for the media given the diffuse flow of information through a variety of channels but perhaps politicians could act more strategically in their post-incident communications. It was noteworthy that Rep. Peter King was immediately briefed on the event and then chose to say, "This was the real deal" and "This could have been devastating". Perhaps future briefings to politicians could include guidance on what terrorists would want them to say and therefore, how to make a more understated comment. Similarly, someone in Mr. Kings' position on the Homeland Security Committee could be trained or advised on what terrorist operations are composed of and how to mitigate their success by downplaying their potency. It really isn't the "real deal" unless you say it is.

Aviation Security, the arrival of the PersonBorne IED's and smart screening

The subject of aviation security will not go away. The system is globally complex and vulnerable and will continue to be a compelling target for current and future terrorists. The only way to approach it is to understand that security should be predictive rather than reactive, technology can and will help. It would appear that UFA used a syringe strapped to his thigh - relying on the personal sensitivities of security screeners to pass through security. It is thought that a similar 'Person Borne IED' technique was used to try and assassinate the Saudi Prince Mohammed bin Nayef in August 2009. In this case a bomb was concealed in the attackers rectum to defeat security screening and then remotely detonated. While this would seem to be an testing conundrum for the current security regime at airports there are technical scanning solutions being developed such as by the company ThruVision, which has developed a system for detecting these 'person borne concealed objects'. There are answers to security concerns, which meet the challenges but it requires systemic predictive thinking.

PersonBorne IED's are likely to be the next significant security challenge to the aviation industry but systems designed to prevent them should be able to adapt to next-gen challenges. If an array of sensors are going to be used to scan individuals entering aeroplanes then they should be developed with next-gen threats such as bio-hazards and software hazards in mind. To some degree this threat could be met by the market; just as airlines, which provide good in-flight services are more pleasant to fly on, an airline, which effectively screens passengers at the door for a variety of threats may attract more customers. A smart screening system operated by the airlines, using its own intelligence and backed by government when appropriate may be preferable to the current lumbering response and would certainly be a welcome addition to security in countries where government screening is best described as sporadic.

New arc of Insecurity

Perhaps the attempted Detroit attack provides a glimpse of where terrorism's next geographic focus is likely to be -- an arc of instability from Nigeria through Somalia to Yemen. This region contains a host of challenges, which rival the current quagmires in Afghanistan and the Middle-East. However, it also offers some opportunities for applying the lessons hard won elsewhere - the use of soft power and civilian agencies to develop governance and permanent security solutions.

If Al-Qaeda is the first variant of globally networked information smart terrorists who are likely to form the security challenge for at least the next fifty years through differing iterations it is imperative that the west begins to learn and apply the lessons from the first generation of this conflict to sustain itself through the second and third over varying geographic and virtual terrain. In short, act smartly and speak softly.

New Arrest in Indonesia

By Kenneth Conboy

At 0500 on 24 December, members of Indonesia police counter-terrorist unit, Special Detachment 88, arrested Baridin, the father-in-law of the late Jemmah Islamiyah bomber Noordin Top. Top had married Baridin's daughter in Cilacap, Central Java, during 2006, and Baridin had helped hide his fugitive son-in-law for extended periods of time through the middle of this year. In June, Baridin fled Cilacap as the police learned of his connection to Top; in hindsight, this was one month before Top conducted a pair of hotel bombings in Jakarta.

From Cilacap, Baridin apparently took shelter in Garut district, West Java province, where he acted as a traveling sugar salesman. When he was captured he had a pair of identity cards under aliases. Although Baridin was not known as an expert in explosives or recruiting, his arrest does demonstrate that the Indonesian authorities remain on heightened alert during the year-end holiday season. Earlier this week, in fact, the newly-promoted head of Special Detachment 88, General Tito Karnavian, stated that there was evidence that the remnants of Jemaah Islamiyah are still attempting to recruit new members despite some of their most aggressive leaders getting killed over the past quarter.

TIME Magazine: Should the U.S. Destroy Jihadist Websites?

By Evan Kohlmann

TIME Magazine has published a new article on the simmering debate over whether the U.S. government should be aggressively shutting down and destroying jihadist Internet websites. This debate has received added attention in recent weeks from a series of unrelated incidents, including the Ft. Hood massacre and the arrest of several would-be American Al-Qaida recruits in Pakistan. In each of these cases, Internet websites and "virtual radicalization" have played a significant role in either persuading someone to carry out an act of violence--or even by providing the apparent contacts necessary to join a real terrorist group.

In reflecting on this series of events, some well-intentioned observers have suggested that the appropriate remedy for the Internet being used as a recruitment machine by terrorist networks is to methodically take apart the underground jihadi social networking forums, one after the next. While I understand where those sentiments come from, I personally don't agree with them -- and I don't believe I'm alone. From TIME:

"But Arquilla's logic doesn't add up, counters Evan Kohlmann of the non-profit NEFA Foundation, created following 9/11 to track Islamic terrorism. Shutting down jihadist web sites "would be like firing cruise missiles at our own spy satellites," he argues, referring to the intelligence the U.S. and its allies glean from such sites. Besides, it can't be done. "If you shut down one of their websites today, they have a complete copy elsewhere and can put it up on a new server and have it up tomorrow," Kohlmann says. Such websites are the only window the rest of the world has into al-Qaeda and other such groups. "If you start shutting down the websites," he adds, "it's like chopping up a jellyfish — you end up with lots of little pieces that are very difficult to monitor." Kohlmann believes that the websites are a treasure trove of valuable intelligence, most of which is being overlooked by the U.S."

And this, of course, does not even take into account the myriad of freedom of speech and civil liberty issues that would inevitably arise if the U.S. government was to start blacking out independent websites on the basis of content. And what about YouTube, which allegedly has served as the point of contact for Taliban recruiters looking for American volunteers -- are we planning on shutting them down, too? In this case, perhaps it is a wiser policy to walk softly and carry a big stick -- as opposed to swinging it around wildly in hopes of randomly hitting something.

The Homegrown Terrorist Threat to the US Homeland

By Lorenzo Vidino

The Real Instituto Elcano, Spain’s leading think tank, has just published my analysis of the homegrown terrorist threat to the U.S. homeland (building on a much longer analysis I published last year in Studies in Conflict and Terrorism titled Homegrown Jihadist Terrorism in the United States: A New and Occasional Phenomenon?):

Summary: The wave of arrests and thwarted plots recently seen in the United States has severely undermined the long-held assumption that American Muslims, unlike their European counterparts, are virtually immune to radicalization. In reality, argues this policy brief, evidence existed also before the fall of 2009 highlighting how radicalization affected some small segments of the American Muslim population exactly like it affects some fringe pockets of the Muslim population of each European country. After putting forth this argument, the brief analyzes the five concurring reasons traditionally used to explain the divergence between the levels of radicalization in Europe and the United States (better economic conditions, lack of urban ghettoes, lower presence of recruiting networks, different demographics, more inclusive sense of citizenship). While all these characteristics still hold true, they no longer represent a guarantee, as other factors such as perception of discrimination and frustration at U.S. foreign policies could lead to radicalization. Finally the brief will look at the post-9/11 evolution of the homegrown terrorist threat to the U.S. homeland and examine possible future scenarios.

Read the analysis from Elcano's website.

CTED Publishes Valuable Assessment of International Counter-Terrorism Efforts

By Victor Comras

Kudos should be given to the UN’s Counter Terrorism Committee Executive Directorate (CTED) for producing what is perhaps the most comprehensive and frank assessments to date of the international community’s implementation of Security Council Resolution 1373 and the measures adopted to combat international terrorism. Their report was presented to the Security Council by CTED Executive Director Mike Smith on December 16th and provides detailed information on what is actually being done, on the vulnerabilities, and on the technical assistance required. It provides a thematic overview of the laws and actions taken in the areas of enforcement, border control, countering the financing of terrorism, and international cooperation as well as a region by region assessment. Human rights considerations are also addressed. The report should be read closely by counter-terrorism pundits, researchers, and policy makers alike.

Let me be forgiven for not dwelling here on the numerous areas where progress has been substantial and success achieved. These are adequately portrayed in the Global Survey. My task here is to highlight and concentrate attention on the continuing shortcomings that need urgently to be considered and addressed.

While just about every country has adopted a broad array of counter-terrorism legislation, several serious gaps remain. The report finds that many of the most serious gaps are found in Africa, Southeast Asia, the Middle East, Central America and the Caribbean where countries continue to lack the capacity to carry out and enforce many of these measures. Several of these countries, the report indicates, lack advanced enforcement and terrorism prevention tools such as databases and forensics, and remain unable to conduct the sophisticated investigations and prosecutions that terrorism cases entail. The report also found that many of these countries lacked internal coordination and that regional cooperation in these areas remained minimal. Relatively few of these countries have sufficient legal resources or structures to accommodate or provide mutual legal assistance or to handle extradition requests.

Counterterrorism shortcomings in the Middle East remain particularly acute. While the region’s countries have all enacted counter-terrorism measures, almost all still fall short when it comes to criminalizing the full range of terrorist related activities referred to in resolution 1373 and/or included in the various counter-terrorism conventions. The CTED report concludes that further attention is needed both in terms of counter-terrorism legislation and implementation to ensure compliance with current international obligations. Special efforts should also be undertaken, the report says, with regard to terrorism financing and to putting in place the measures necessary to effectively regulate the financial sector, remittances, cash couriers and charities in order to ensure they are not misused for terrorist financing. Only five of the 12 Middle East countries covered in this section are parties to the International Convention for the Suppression of the Financing of Terrorism.

The Survey notes also that while North America and Western Europe have adopted comprehensive counter-terrorism programs, many remain cut off from sensitive information sharing arrangements or have sufficient authority to provide judicial assistance to other countries. Laws to prevent indoctrination, recruitment and incitement to terrorism are also lacking in several European countries.

Although most states are now parties to the International Convention for the Suppression of the Financing to Terrorism many countries still lack sufficient legislation to criminalize terrorist financing or to fully cover the offences set forth in the Convention. Moreover, the degree to which they are able to investigate and prosecute terrorist financing offences varies considerably. In fact, most States continue to lack sufficient personnel, expertise and experience in this area. The Survey also points out several shortcomings in the methodology involved in freezing of funds and assets of persons and entities associated with the commission or attempted commission of terrorist acts. And, the report notes that the financial intelligence units (FIUs) in many countries remain non operational. The effective regulation of cross border movements of cash and of informal money or value transfer systems such as hawala is also beyond the reach or capacity of many states.

Border control measures also vary considerably from region to region. CTED experts observed serious deficiencies in identity document control techniques and in airport and maritime port inspection and security arrangements.

As the CTED report concludes “the effective practical implementation of counter-terrorism policies and procedures requires a well-defined strategy, bolstered by a strong, well-coordinated domestic security and law enforcement apparatus that can detect, prevent and investigate terrorist activities…. Law enforcement agencies and personnel involved in combating terrorism must have access to counterterrorism-specific resources and information, including relevant international databases, as well as information on terrorist activities, movements, and use of technologies and weapons. States need to ensure not only that their domestic legislation provides their law enforcement agencies with the necessary operational manoeuvrability, but also that there is adequate funding, training and judicial oversight in place to enable those agencies to enhance their professional capabilities. Law enforcement agencies should work together with prosecutors and courts, within a framework of accountability and respect for the rule of law, in order to gain public trust and ensure the integrity of counter-terrorism efforts, from the prevention stage through to prosecution and punishment of persons who have committed terrorist acts." These attributes still remain sorely lacking in too many countries around the world.

AQIM and the West African Drug Trade

By Douglas Farah

I have recently been briefing U.S. government agencies on what I see as a fundamental sea change as a result of the globalization of the world market, most visible in the increasing transit of cocaine through West Africa.

One of the issues I have raised has now gone public - the protection of cocaine shipments through the Trans Sahel region by a combination of criminal and terrorist networks, including Al Qaeda in the Islamic Magreb (AQIM).

The other is the fact that now, after decades of saying the key to dismantling the cocaine cartels was to lower U.S. consumption (something that was long true), the panorama has changed dramatically. As the drugs fly from Colombia, via Venezuela to West Africa then the expanding European-Central European-Asian markets, it is clear the U.S. market is no longer so relevant.

Given the expanding markets elsewhere in the world, I would venture to say that if the U.S. reduced its demand by 20 percent overnight it would have relatively little impact on the GLOBAL flow of cocaine. It would be problematic for some suppliers, but not a defining issue, and that is radically different than the situation a few years ago.

This influx of cash is both dangerous for the immediate neighborhood, but would also give AQIM a whole new level of international financing, as I noted here.

We have the first pubic case where AQIM offers to protect large cocaine shipments transiting the region, and claims to have already provided such protection.

The Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA) ran a sting operation alleging to be members of the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC), which now has an operational presence in West Africa. This is the same scheme the DEA used to lure Monzar al Kazar to his arrest, extradition and conviction - as well as the same ploy used to lure Viktor Bout to Thailand, where he was arrested and awaits a ruling on a U.S. extradition request. My full blog is here.

NEFA Foundation: "Target: America" - Attempt to Attack Federal Building in Springfield, IL

By Madeleine Gruen

The NEFA Foundation has released the 23rd report in the "Target: America" series; a PowerPoint presentation examining the September 23, 2009, attempt by Michael C. Finton (aka Talib Islam) to trigger a bomb packed in a van that he parked outside of the Paul Findley Federal Building in Springfield, Illinois.

Finton, a prison convert to Islam, had been closely monitored by the Springfield JTTF for almost two years prior to the terror attack attempt. He came to the JTTF’s attention within a year of his release from prison after a seven-year long period of incarceration for aggravated assault and battery. Finton's parole officer notified the JTTF when he became concerned by Finton’s overt admiration of “American Taliban” John Walker Lindh. Finton had openly expressed his desire to travel overseas for jihad training. Once it appeared that Finton intended to put his words into action, the JTTF first introduced a confidential informant, and then an undercover operative, in order to control Finton’s activities, through to the point of the attempted attack on the federal building.

Although it does not appear as though Finton would have been capable of pulling off a major terrorist attack on his own, this case supports the view that even those who have not received training, or who have not had direct interaction with jihadis, can hold a deep enough level of dedication to follow through with a major attack. It also shows that even untrained radicalized individuals are able to apply some basic operation tactics to a plan based on examples from terrorist attacks that have taken place overseas, and examples featured in videos of attacks that are circulated on the Internet by Al Qaida and other terrorist groups.

The PowerPoint detailing the attempted attack on the Findley Federal Building can be viewed here.

Al-Qaida's Zawahiri Hails KSM, Ramzi Yousef, and Others Held in U.S. Prisons

By Evan Kohlmann

The NEFA Foundation has obtained a new audio recording produced by Al-Qaida's As-Sahab Media Foundation of Al-Qaida Deputy Commander Dr. Ayman al-Zawahiri titled, "The Idol of National Unity.” In the statement, al-Zawahiri said, “…Obama’s commands that uncovered for the Muslims in Palestine and everywhere his true plan that backs Israel, covered with smiles and invitations for [mutual] respect, understanding and cooperation. Is it clear for us that Obama’s policy isn’t but a new episode in the crusaders’ Zionist campaign to enslave us and humiliate us, occupy our land and steal our resources, and fight our religion and Sharia. What has Obama provided us until now except more pressure, sanctions and narrowing?” He continued, “The Pakistani Army’s battle in Waziristan is a primary participation in America’s crusade war against Islam and Muslims in Afghanistan and South Asia. The Pakistani-American Army’s miserable defense for the American crusader empire is the same role that was carried out by the Indian-British Army in servitude of the crusader British empire…”

Dr. al-Zawahiri also drew attention to the plight of mujahideen prisoners being held in the United States: "We ask from Allah to help us to take revenge from everyone who participated in torturing the Muslims and to help us work on liberating them and attack those who imprisoned them, and we have not and will not forget them, Allah-willing. We will not forget Omar Abdel Rahman, Ramzi Yousef and his companions, Khalid Sheikh Muhammad and his companions, or our prisoners in Egypt, the Islamic Maghreb, Palestine, Iraq, Afghanistan and everywhere, with the help and power of Allah. We will not forget them and we call upon every Muslim to not forget them."

The complete English transcript is available on the NEFA Foundation website.

Staying Solvent: Assessing al Qaeda's Financial Portfolio

By Michael Jacobson

My colleague Matt Levitt and I published a piece in Jane's Strategic Advisory Services, as one of a series of articles for a supplement they put together on the state of al Qaeda. We wrote about the financial troubles the al Qaeda core is encountering in recent months, and the impact that this is having on the organization.

Here is an excerpt:

In a speech in Washington, DC in August 2008, Ted Gistaro, then the United States national intelligence officer for transnational threats, painted a picture of a resurgent Al-Qaeda core, with an increasingly secure safe-haven in Pakistan’s tribal areas. Al-Qaeda had, in Gistaro’s view, “maintained or strengthened key elements of its capability to attack the United States over the past year”, despite the deaths of a number of its key figures.

Little more than a year later, Al-Qaeda’s leadership appears to be in disarray. During 2008, Al-Qaeda lost 10 of its most senior leaders, including three of the chiefs of its external operations branch – individuals responsible for directing terrorist attacks against the West. According to Dennis Blair, the US Director of National Intelligence (DNI), these deaths have taken a serious toll on the organisation’s capabilities, “forcing [Al-Qaeda] to draw upon younger, less experienced individuals to fill some critical positions”. The remaining Al-Qaeda leaders now spend much of their time in hiding, attempting to avoid being targeted by the unmanned drones that have killed so many of their fellow terrorists over the past year.

This situation has taken its toll, not only on the Al-Qaeda core’s ability to direct and plan operations, but also on the organisation’s financial health, which is critical to its long term survival and capabilities.

To read the rest of the piece, click here.

Welcome to Yala Mr. Abhisit

By Zachary Abuza

It has now been one year since Thai Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva and the Democrat Party assumed power in Thailand. He promised to resolve the violence and search for a political solution for the Malay insurgency that has left more than 4,000 people dead since January 2004. Southern Thailand has been the scene of escalating violence that has led to de facto ethnic cleansing (15% of Buddhist population has fled) and the erosion of the social fabric of the southern Malay-majority provinces.

In the run up to last week's summit with Malaysian Prime Minister Najib Razak, Prime Minister Abhisit made several assertions: First, the violence has gone down in the South. This is not quite true. He cited the death toll from 2004 to its peak in 2007. Violence dropped precipitously in 2008, the year before he came to power. From 2004-06, the rate of violence was 1.5 people/day killed. At its peak, from September 2006 to July 2007, the average was 5 people per day killed. The violence dropped in 2008 to well under one person a day being killed.

But since 15 December 2008, when he became when the People's Power Party was ousted, and Abhisit became Prime Minister, violence has actually increased. Since 15 December 2008,1.2 people a day have been killed; well below the peak, but clearly an un-sustainable rate.

In the past year, based on my open-source statistics that are very conservative and tend to under-report the violence, some 429 people have been killed and 811 wounded. Those killed include 25 police, 35 soldiers and 26 paramilitary rangers. 303 civilians, 13 teachers, one monk and 26 village defense volunteers were also killed. In the past year, there have been 155 bombings, including 3 car bombs, and roughly 30 attempted bombings. There have been 11 beheadings and corpses have been burnt or desecrated 18 times. 10 schools were arsoned.

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Calculated Terror: Modeling Hezbollah

By Aaron Mannes

Foreign Policy has just published an article I co-wrote with my colleague VS Subrahmanian discussing our work modeling the behavior of terrorist organizations. This piece focuses on our results on Hezbollah, which provide a credible explanation to Hezbollah's decision to keep the Israeli-Lebanese border quiet since the end of the 2006 war.

For more on our work, visit the website of my employer the Laboratory for Computational Cultural Dynamics. The specific system discussed here is the Stochastic Opponent Modeling Agents.

Foreign Policy
Argument

Calculated Terror
How a computer model predicts the future in some of the world's most volatile hotspots.
BY AARON MANNES, V.S. SUBRAHMANIAN | DECEMBER 15, 2009

On Oct. 27, a Katyusha rocket was fired from Lebanon and struck down in an open area outside the northern Israeli town of Kiryat Shmone. This was the ninth such rocket strike since the end of the 2006 war between Israel and Hezbollah. No group claimed responsibility for the attack, but smaller Palestinian groups hoping to spark another round of fighting are the most likely suspect. Hezbollah, despite its extreme anti-Israel politics, did not join the fight, even after Israeli counterstrikes.

The "Blue Line" separating Israel from Lebanon is one of the most volatile borders in the world. But predicting when this area, and other tense regions throughout the world, will erupt into violence often appears to be little more than guesswork. How can policymakers overcome their own biases and limited information to anticipate if an incident like the recent rocket strike on Israel will spark a larger conflict, like the 2006 war, or fizzle out?

Increasingly, the answer is: Develop a computer model from historical data. The University of Maryland's Laboratory for Computational Cultural Dynamics (LCCD) constructed one such model that predicted this period of quiet along the Israeli-Lebanese border, and also provides insight into Hezbollah's priorities. LCCD developed a framework, known as Stochastic Opponent Modeling Agents (SOMA), that examines historical data and automatically generates rules assessing the probability that a group will take certain actions under certain conditions.

Read the complete post here.

Pakistan: Taliban's Mass Fatality Terror Continues

By Animesh Roul

Taliban militants and affiliates continue to attack both military and civilian targets relentlessly in Pakistan to avenge the ongoing army offensive in the Northwest Pakistan. On December 15 (Today), militants have exploded a car bomb (vehicle bone improvised explosive device) at a busy market place bustling with shoppers in Dera Ghazi Khan. The blast took place just outside the home of Zulfiqar Khosa, a senior member of the Pakistan Muslim League-N party and a provincial legislator. At least 33 people have died so far (and counting) and over 90 people sustained minor to severe injuries. Apparently, militants have targeted Khosa, knowing very well that there will be mounting civilian casualty if they target the area at that time of the day. However, Khosa survived the latest terror strike, though his home was badly damaged by the severe impact of the blast.

The blast in DGK was the latest in a series of attacks that rocked Pakistan since October 2009.

Myriad Mayhem:
Multan: on December 08, Taliban militants launched a multiple attacks (including Suicide bomber, gunmen and grenade attacks) targeting the office of Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) in Qasim Bella cantonment area, Multan, killing 15 people and injuring several others including women and children in Multan. Taliban’s Azam Tariq has claimed responsibility for the attack on the ISI office.

Lahore: On December 07, two powerful bomb blasts occurred in a crowded market in Allama Iqbal area of Lahore. Over 50 people have died in this twin blasts including women and children.

Peshawar: Elsewhere on the same day, Taliban suicide bomber blew himself up near the entrance of Session Court in Peshawar. Nine people, including two Policemen have died in the explosion. This was the second attack on judicial establishments in the area, after the November 20 suicide attack near the Judicial Complex on the Khyber Road that killed nearly 20 people.

Operations Galore:
Rah-e- Nijat: Pakistan’s ongoing army’s offensive code named Rah-e- Nijat (Path to Slavation) has focused on South Waziristan, which is the nerve center of the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP). According to Inter-Services Public Relations (ISPR) Taliban has suffered a body blow in this military offensive and estimated 589 terrorists have been dead so far since the operation started on October 16, 2009. Presently army is on a clearing operations at Kulal Raghzai, Jandola and Ramzak sectors.

Khwakh Bad-e-Shum: In Khyber Agency, Pakistani security forces have launched another operation targeting affiliates and support services of Taliban code named “Khwakh Bad-e-Shum,” mostly focusing hideouts and supply lines of terrorists in the Tirah valley, Bara, Gurgury and Shin Qamar areas.

Rah-e-Rast: The search and sweep operation is still ongoing in Swat and Malakand region. Even though Pakistani Army has claimed to have wiped out Taliban from Swat, the militants are still going strong in these areas. Early this month, Taliban suicide bomber killed Shamsher Ali Khan, the Awami National Party legislator in the NWFP Assembly from Swat.

In Pakistan, Taliban militants have targeted them all: Army, police, legislators, anti-Taliban Islamic clerics and common people. Often these indiscriminate attacks confuse many counterterrorism professionals for the sheer scale of violence and mindless killings with absolutely no logic and no visible trends to analyze the real motive of the Pakistani Taliban and affiliates. If one looks at the stepped up Taliban violence in the Pakistan’s cities and towns, it would be premature to conclude that Army is getting success in its operation against Taliban forces in Tribal agencies.

Georgian Aircraft Delivering North Korean Weapons to Iran (or Perhaps Elsewhere)

By Douglas Farah

The story of the Georgia-registered aircraft halted in Thailand with 35 tons of North Korean weapons bound for Iran (or perhaps Africa or Sri Lanka) show what a true globalized structure is.

The Thais stopped the aircraft because U.S. intelligence warned them of the North Korean weapons on board, listed in the cargo manifest as oil drilling equipment. North Korea, although under an international ban on exporting weapons, makes an estimated $1 billion a year from the industry, attracting the least savory of the world's characters as clients.

Why the plane landed in Thailand is not entirely clear, nor is the final destination of the weapons. Iran buys North Korean weapons, largely for the Quds Force, Hezbollah and Hamas. These are terrorist organizations. Pakistan likewise has shown a fondness for the illegal purchases in the past, and much of that has gone to terrorist organizations. West Africa could also have been on the route.

The weapons included sophisticated rocket propelled grenade launchers and what experts said were K-100 rockets, known as AWAC killers because of their lethal use against the Airborne Warning and Control Systems aircraft, used as a flying radar stations.

The five crewmen arrested will, of course, share space in the Thai prison with Viktor Bout, who has also busted in Thailand trying to sell some of the same types of sophisticate weapons to people he believed represented the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC). An appeals court decision on Bout's extradition to the United States is expected in February. A lower court ruled he could not be extradited for his alleged crimes.

Another interesting aspect of the case is that the IL-76, although registered in the republic of Georgia, was registered to company, Air West, that has long been affiliated with Bout network in Sudan. If the companies in Georgia and Sudan are related it would be an interesting view of how the Bout empire has morphed since he was arrested in March 2008. My full blog is here.

Former Taliban Minister: "Two Million Martyrs" to Defend UBL

By Evan Kohlmann

The NEFA Foundation has obtained and translated an online jihadi magazine interview with former Taliban Deputy Justice Minister Jalaluddin Shinwari, once considered one of the more moderate Taliban leaders who would cooperate with the Karzai administration. During the interview, Shinwari said, “we welcome Sheikh Usama bin Laden and his Arab brothers and others in Afghanistan, and we defend them in obedience to Allah before anything…The Afghani people are fully ready to provide—for the cause of Allah—two million other martyrs in defense of Sheikh Usama bin Laden and his brothers, because we consider this a pillar in our religion; we cannot [possibly] neglect the Sheikh and his brothers…it is an impossible matter for us. The love of the Afghani people to Sheikh Usama bin Laden—we believe—is stronger than the love of the Arabian Peninsula to his because he is a Muslim Mujahid.’” He added, “We consider the Sheikh Abu Omar al-Baghdadi and Sheikh Abu Hamza al-Muhajir—may Allah protect those— leaders of Jihad against the crusader occupation to our beloved Iraq.”

It should be noted that the official Taliban media wing in Afghanistan has distanced itself from Shinwari: "There was a famous person named Jalaludeen Shinwari whose position was Deputy Minister of the Ministry of Justice during the Islamic Emirate government, and not as the representative of the Amir al-Mumineen. But, today, he is not with the mujahideen and he does not work with the Islamic Emirate.”

A complete English translation of the interview with former Taliban Deputy Justice Minister Jalaluddin Shinwari can be accessed on the NEFA Foundation website.

Will Lebanon Carry Syria’s Water in Washington?

By David Schenker

Lebanese president Michel Suleiman is due in Washington on Monday for an Oval office meeting with President Obama. Suleiman arrives just days after a new—Hizballah-dominated—Government of national unity was established in Beirut.

In recent days, articles have appeared in the Lebanese pro-Hizballah daily Al Akhbar—discussing limitations on Suleiman’s trip set by Syria, and agenda items for the Washington meeting, which were determined during Suleiman’s recent meeting in Damascus with Syrian President Bashar Asad. According to Al Akhbar, on the issue of Arab-US relations, Suleiman will “encourage Washington’s policy of dialogue and openness, especially on Syria.”

Based on recent developments in Lebanon, its apparent that Syria and Hizballah have regained the initiative in Lebanese politics. It’s a remarkable reversal of fortune after the pro-west March 14th coalition won a decisive majority in Lebanese elections this past June.

I have a detailed analysis on recent developments in Lebanese politics on the eve of Suleiman’s visit linked here. Text is below.

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Contending with the PKK's Narco-Terrorism

By Matthew Levitt

On December 8, the United Nations Security Council will host its first-ever thematic debate on drug trafficking as a threat to international security. This focus is notable. U.S. officials are increasingly concerned with the evolving threat of drug trafficking, especially as terrorist organizations stake a bigger claim in this illegal arena. In fact, on November 18, FBI director Robert Mueller met with senior Turkish officials to address U.S.-Turkish efforts targeting the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK), also known as Kongra-Gel. A press release from the U.S. embassy in Ankara following the meeting stressed that U.S. officials "strongly support Turkey's efforts against the PKK terrorist organization" and highlighted the two countries' long history of working together in the fight against terrorism and transnational organized crime.

These discussions are timely. Despite Ankara's recent bid to alleviate the Kurdish issue -- a bid referred to as the "democratic opening" -- the PKK is one of a growing number of terrorist organizations with significant stakes in the international drug trade. In fact, in October the U.S. Treasury Department added three PKK/Kongra-Gel senior leaders to its list of foreign narcotics traffickers. The PKK, along with the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC), is one of only a few organizations worldwide designated by the U.S. government as both a terrorist organization and a significant foreign narcotics trafficker.

The full article, co-authored with Ben Freedman, is available here.

Breaking News: Pakistan Reportedly Detains Five D.C.-Area Muslims on Suspicion of Terror

By The Investigative Project on Terrorism (IPT)

**Updated December 9, 9:00 a.m. EST

A Pakistani newspaper reports the arrest of five foreign nationals after a raid in a town called Sargodha. The raid took place at the home of a member of the Jaish-e-Muhammad, a Pakistani movement designated as a terrorist group by the U.S. Treasury Department in 2001.

According to the report, "The DPO told that these people had been living in Sargodha since Nov 30 and it was quite a possibility that they were engaged in acts of terrorism." It names the five as Ahmed Abdullah, Waqar Hassan Khan, Eman Hassan, Yasir and Rami Zamzam and describes them as two Yemenis, an Egyptian, a Swede and a U.S.-born Pakistani.

December 8: Federal investigators are searching for a Howard University dental student and four other missing Muslim men reported missing from the Washington, D.C. area, the Investigative Project on Terrorism (IPT) has learned. There is concern they may have been sent abroad to train for jihad. The five were last seen November 29.

The identities of two of the missing men, Howard student Ramy Zamzam and Waqar Khan, have been mentioned in online postings, including a Facebook page that was set up Monday for friends to offer their support. Some of those pages, however, appear restricted to friends and associates.

It is not clear where the men are believed to have gone, but an informed source told the IPT that at least one left behind a farewell video.

According to the Facebook and Twitter postings, Zamzam is among the missing. He has been active in the Muslim Students Association, serving as president of the MSA DC Council. A Howard University spokeswoman has not responded to questions from the IPT.

Read our full report here.

Chávez Hosts Terrorism International In Caracas

By Douglas Farah

Little noticed by the outside world, Venezuela's president Hugo Chávez is hosting a gathering of global terrorist organizations in Caracas, featuring Colombia's FARC, Spain's ETA, the Communist Party of El Salvador, remnants of the Red Brigade and other armed groups seeking violent revolution in Latin America and beyond.

The conference shows how closely tied Chávez is to the FARC and other terrorist groups, despite the overwhelming evidence of the FARC's enormous involvement in drug trafficking, its thousands of kidnappings, endless attacks against the civilian population and its kidnapping of children and women to serve as sex slaves.

The second global convention of the Coordinadora Continental Bolivariana (Bolivarian Continental Coordinator-CCB), founded by the FARC in Venezuela in 2004 and newly renamed the Bolivarian Continental Movement, has as its primary stated purpose to militarily support the Venezuelan revolution and contribute to the struggle against Yankee bases in Colombia. Its platform also vows to overthrow the United States and its "moribund capitalist system."

The movement, which is running a multimedia website with its statements said the most exciting moment of the opening ceremony was the showing of a video of FARC leader Alfonso Cano greeting the group and wishing them success. Cano's speech (in Spanish) can be found here. My full blog is here.

Taliban's Counter Strategy is based on declared US Strategy

By Walid Phares

Taliban waiting for 2012?

Now that we know the administration’s new strategy for Afghanistan, what is the Taliban strategy against the United States?

Such a question is warranted to be able to project the clash between the two strategies and assess the accuracy of present U.S. policies in the confrontation with the forces it is fighting against in that part of the world.

So, how would the Taliban/al-Qaida war room counter NATO and the Afghan Government based on the Obama Administration's battle plan?

Strategic Perceptions

The jihadi war room is now aware that the administration has narrowed its scope to defeat the so-called al-Qaida organization while limiting its goal to depriving the Taliban from achieving full victory, i.e. depriving them "from the momentum." In strategic wording this means that the administration won’t give the time and the means, let alone the necessary long term commitment to fully defeat the Taliban as a militia and militant network.

The jihadist strategists now understand that Washington’s advisers still recommend talking to the Taliban, the entire Taliban, but only after the latter would feel weak and pushed back enough to seek such talks. Underneath this perception, the Salafi Islamists’ analysts realize that present American analysis concludes that al-Qaida and the Taliban are two different things, and that it is possible to defeat the first and eventually engage the second.

Such a jihadist understanding of U.S. defective perceptions will give the Taliban and al-Qaida a first advantage: knowing that your enemy, the United States, isn’t seeing you as you really are.

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The Taliban vs. The Treadmaster: Aftermath of a Taliban Takeover in Nuristan

By Evan Kohlmann

The NEFA Foundation has released still images from a video recording recently published by the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan (the Taliban), depicting the conquest of a coalition military outpost in the eastern Afghan province of Nuristan. Following their apparent "victory", several high-ranking Taliban commanders are shown in the video touring the abandoned base and sampling various items that have been hastily left behind by its former inhabitants -- including automatic weapons and an elliptical workout machine.

The images can be viewed on the NEFA Foundation website.

See also: WIRED.COM - "Revealed: Taliban Workout Video"

Al-Qaida Confirms "Martyrdom" of Former Guantanamo Detainee in Yemen

By Evan Kohlmann

Al-Qaida's network in the Arabian Peninsula (Yemen) has released the audio-recorded wills of two mujahideen operatives who were recently "martyred" in clashes with local security forces -- including former Guantanamo Bay detainee #114 Yusuf Muhammad Mubarak al-Jebairy al-Shehri. The younger brother of a senior Al-Qaida member, al-Shehri first left his home in Saudi Arabia in mid-2001 in order to wage jihad alongside the Taliban because he "thought that participating in jihad with the Taliban was the right thing to do... the Taliban were good Muslims.” In the midst of fleeing the crumbling Taliban frontline in late 2001, Yusuf al-Shehri was captured and sent as an Al-Qaida detainee to Guantanamo Bay.

During Yusuf al-Shehri’s eventual hearings before an administrative review panel, several major factors weighed heavily against his release from Guantanamo. According to the Pentagon, a “foreign government service” not only classified him as a “high priority target” among those held in Guantanamo, but in fact, had pegged him at the fourth-top slot on their list. Throughout his questioning and interrogation by U.S. law enforcement and intelligence agencies, “when the detainee has been confronted with his inconsistencies and lies, he has flatly refused to cooperate or has told more lies. The detainee advised that the FBI, the United States, and the interrogators are the enemy.” According to al-Shehri’s case file maintained by the Pentagon: “The detainee stated he considers all Americans his enemy. The detainee decided that he hates all Americans because they attack his religion, Islam. Since Americans are the detainee's enemy, he will continue to fight them until he dies. The detainee pointed to the sky and told the interviewing agents that he will have a meeting with them in the next life… The detainee cannot understand why the detainees are held in Guantanamo Bay, Cuba with no trial. The detainee has come to believe the reason is that America wants to destroy Islam.” Yet, despite these disturbing charges in his case file, Yusuf al-Shehri was nonetheless released by the U.S. military from detention in Guantanamo Bay on November 9, 2007, and delivered into the custody of local security forces in Saudi Arabia. It is not known when, how, or why al-Shehri was able to escape his Saudi captors and travel to Yemen.

For more information, see:
NEFA Foundation Report: “'The Eleven': Saudi Guantanamo Veterans Returning to the Fight."
(Page 7)

The Taliban Reaction: "Regarding Obama’s New Strategy"

By Evan Kohlmann

The NEFA Foundation has obtained a new communique released by the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan (the Taliban) responding to President Obama’s remarks, titled, “Regarding Obama’s New Strategy”. The statement noted, “The American President Obama has announced his strategy after months of dithering. The essence of the strategy shows that the needs and wants of the American people have been overlooked during the framing of this strategy and it has been formulated under the pressure of (Army) Generals in the Pentagon, the American Neo-conservatives and the wealthiest few in America and for the protection of their interests. Hence it is a strategy of colonialism aimed at securing interests of the American capitalists and it seems America has vast and protracted but wicked and hostile plans not only for Afghanistan but for the whole region.” The Taliban warned that “the reinforcements will provide better opportunities for the Mujahideen to launch offensives. On the other hand, it will deepen the crisis of the American economy which is already in shambles.” The statement pointed out that “The Islam-loving and freedom-loving people of Afghanistan consider the Kabul Administration and the forces working under this Administration as corrupt and surrogates of the invaders.” Moreover, “The Mujhideen of the Islamic Emirate have worked out a vast strategy and prepared for strong resistance to foil the illegal, anti-Islamic and anti-Afghanistan conspiracies of the internal and external Allies and counter them in every part of the country with full strength and put up a protracted resistance. The Mujahideen have high morale and complete readiness and believe that Obama’s new strategy will fail like it did previously.”

A complete copy of the Taliban reaction to President Obama's speech can be accessed via the NEFA Foundation website.

Chechen Mujahideen Claim Russia Train Bombing

By Evan Kohlmann

The NEFA Foundation has obtained a communiqué from the Chechen mujahideen claiming credit for the November 27th train bombing that killed over 30 in Russia. According to the statement, “We declare that this operation was prepared and carried out within the planned, early this year, and successfully carried out acts of sabotage on a number of strategically important objects of Rusnya, pursuant to the order of the Emir of Caucasus Emirate Dokka Umarov. As previously repeatedly warned, in the spring Majlisul Shura by the command of the Caucasus Emirate, it was decided to transfer the sabotage war to the territories of Rusnya, along with strong blows to the occupiers’ infrastructure in the Caucasus. Today, we carry out sabotage operations on electricity transmission lines, oil-and gas-wires. Many of the operations are under preparation status.” Further, “In this year by the command of the Mujahideen, several intelligence-sabotage units were trained and sent deep into Rusnya to conduct operations on enemy’s territory. As a result, and the consequences of these operations have caused enormous economic damage to Rusna, we will continue to work in this direction. We warn the leadership of Rusnya that unless they stop the killing of innocent Muslims of the Caucasus Emirate, and unless they terminate the activities of the ‘death squads’, we reserve the right to conduct appropriate military operations against the ‘civilian’ population of Rusnya.”

The complete communique is available for viewing on the NEFA Foundation website.

Video: The "Martyrdom" of "Abu Safiyya" in Afghanistan (a.k.a. German national Javaid Siddiqi)

By Evan Kohlmann

The NEFA Foundation has obtained a video recording released by the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU) paying tribute to a German national "Abu Safiyya" (a.k.a. Javaid Siddiqi) who was "martyred" in late October during fighting alongside mujahideen forces in Afghanistan. The video shows Siddiqi on the frontline along the Afghan-Pakistani border accompanied by other German recruits--and at a terrorist training camp that was organized last May. According to narration in the video, "Abu Safiyya, may Allah have mercy on him, died with honor on October 17, 2009. He died on the battlefield as a martyr.... [He] left in the spring of 2009 from his home country of Germany. He emigrated with his family to stand alongside the mujahideen carrying the banner of truth. After he was trained as a fighter, he took part in the jihad of Khorasan (Afghanistan/Pakistan) and he fought on three different fronts."

The video can be viewed on the NEFA Foundation website.

Fort Hood Investigations: Underlying Attitudes Deserve Examining

By Michael B. Kraft

The U.S. government’s investigation into Major Nidal M. Hassan’s shooting spree at Fort Hood apparently is a week or so away from submitting a report to the White House, the Washington Post reported today. The investigation is reviewing problems in sharing information between various government agencies, and rightly so.

From the numerous leaks and press reports, it appears that the various pieces of information on Hasan’s activities and behavior –such as proselytizing behavior at Walter Reed Hospital and email conversations with a radical cleric that were intercepted by the intelligence community, were looked at separately by different agencies. They did not seem to rise to the level of concern that someone would decide “we should pass this on just in case.” The stovepiping of information meant that, in effect, groups of people in different rooms saw bits of bones but did not recognize that they might be part of an elephant.

A major question is whether the FBI and the military should have passed along information about Major Hasan, no matter how innocent it may have seemed when viewed separately. This is more key than the widely trumpeted assertions, apparently based on one or two persons speculating to the press that there was reluctance at Walter Reed Army Hospital to boot out Hasan because of “political correctness.”

A great deal has been written and said about the shootings in which Major Hasan walked into a building at Fort Hood and killed 13 persons on his own Army base and wounded three dozen others. But the most recent statements that “take the cake” were reported on the blog earlier today in the posting More Jihadi Endorsements for Ft. Hood Shooter Maj. Malik Hasan By Evan Kohlmann. The item reported a statement on a Muslim fundamentalist website that congratulated Hasan for his “brave and heroic deed.”
The statement was carried by the Ansar al-Mujahideen online jihad forum, which has been endorsed by the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan (the Taliban) as one of their officially approved web venues.

It is not uncommon for radical Islamists websites and speakers to praise suicide bombers for carrying out “brave deeds.” What is heroic about walking into a crowded room, wearing a uniform to blend in, and using a semi- automatic and multiple clips to spray bullets at unsuspecting unarmed persons? What is heroic about setting off a bomb in a market place crowded with women and children? This is a perverse interpretation of heroism.

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More Jihadi Endorsements for Ft. Hood Shooter Maj. Malik Hasan

By Evan Kohlmann

The NEFA Foundation has obtained an English-language statement regarding the Ft. Hood massacre that was posted by the administrators of the Ansar al-Mujahideen online jihad forum. The statement noted, "We issue this statement in support of the actions of brother Nidal Malik Hassan; as a congratulations for his brave and heroic deed, as well as the jealousness he displayed for the pains suffered by the Muslim Ummah as a result of the modern Zionist-Christian Crusades against it.We ask Allah to accept this great feat of yours and make you an example for others to follow." Further, "It is not permissible for Muslims to aid the infidels in any way in war against the Muslims, whether physically, morally, financially, or strategically. There is a consensus amongst the scholars that whoever does so, even by a mere gesture, has committed an act of apostasy and has left the fold of Islam." It should be noted that the Ansar al-Mujahideen forum has been recently endorsed by the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan (the Taliban) as one of their officially approved web venues.

The entire statement from Ansar al-Mujahideen in support of Maj. Hasan can be viewed on the NEFA Foundation website.

See also:
- Extremist Cleric Anwar al-Awlaki Endorses Ft. Hood Massacre: "Nidal Hassan Did the Right Thing"
- Followers of Anwar al-Awlaki Giddily Celebrate Ft. Hood Massacre
- Video: American Al-Qaida Spokesman Urged "Shooting Spree" at U.S. Military Base in 2006