AQIM and the West African Drug Trade
By Douglas Farah
I have recently been briefing U.S. government agencies on what I see as a fundamental sea change as a result of the globalization of the world market, most visible in the increasing transit of cocaine through West Africa.
One of the issues I have raised has now gone public - the protection of cocaine shipments through the Trans Sahel region by a combination of criminal and terrorist networks, including Al Qaeda in the Islamic Magreb (AQIM).
The other is the fact that now, after decades of saying the key to dismantling the cocaine cartels was to lower U.S. consumption (something that was long true), the panorama has changed dramatically. As the drugs fly from Colombia, via Venezuela to West Africa then the expanding European-Central European-Asian markets, it is clear the U.S. market is no longer so relevant.
Given the expanding markets elsewhere in the world, I would venture to say that if the U.S. reduced its demand by 20 percent overnight it would have relatively little impact on the GLOBAL flow of cocaine. It would be problematic for some suppliers, but not a defining issue, and that is radically different than the situation a few years ago.
This influx of cash is both dangerous for the immediate neighborhood, but would also give AQIM a whole new level of international financing, as I noted here.
We have the first pubic case where AQIM offers to protect large cocaine shipments transiting the region, and claims to have already provided such protection.
The Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA) ran a sting operation alleging to be members of the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC), which now has an operational presence in West Africa. This is the same scheme the DEA used to lure Monzar al Kazar to his arrest, extradition and conviction - as well as the same ploy used to lure Viktor Bout to Thailand, where he was arrested and awaits a ruling on a U.S. extradition request. My full blog is here.
