What Europe Can Do to Secure a Deal with Iran

By Matthew Levitt

Against the backdrop of the Iranian government's continuing crackdown on its critics, Western powers are preparing for a fourth round of multilateral sanctions and other measures in the hopes of persuading Tehran to alter course on its controversial uranium enrichment policy. But even with Russia now apparently on board, will more sanctions work? And is there a specifically European role to be played in such a strategy?

There is convincing new evidence that the Islamic Republic has continued pursuing a secret nuclear weapons programme in defiance of the IAEA and UN Security Council resolutions. Last September, the United States and some European allies exposed a new secret enrichment facility near Qom which, according to a recent IAEA report, suggested Iran may have additional secret sites. Iran acknowledged building "contingency centres" like the Qom facility in response to "the augmentation of the threats of military attacks against Iran." In December, The Times of London reported that Tehran had been working on a triggering device for a nuclear bomb. Iran responded by test firing the Sajjil-2, the latest version of its 1,200 mile range missile that brings south eastern Europe within range.

Targeted financial measures have, of course, so far not stopped Iran from pursuing its nuclear programme. But sanctions were never intended to do so. As a former U.S. Treasury official who was involved in crafting the campaign of targeted financial measures aimed at Iran, I know that sanctions are no silver bullet. On their own they can only do so much, but coupled with such other tools as robust diplomacy and a credible military presence in the region, financial measures can create diplomatic leverage that should also focus on Russia, China, the Gulf States and America's European and Asian allies. Sanctions can help to accomplish three goals; to disrupt Iran's illicit activities; to deter third parties from either knowingly or unintentionally facilitating Iran's illicit activities; and to make Iran re-consider these activities. This last involves convincing the revolutionary and unelected leadership that the nuclear programme is a threat to regime survival, not a guarantee of that.

But negotiation and diplomacy alone will not convince Iran to abandon its nuclear programme. The EU could therefore become a critically important player. Here's how.

The complete article, published in the European journal Europe's World, is available here.