PAKISTAN: Another Terror Friday, Ahmadi Sect Targeted in Lahore

By Animesh Roul

If we scan past terror events in Pakistan, we will find most of the sectarian religious attacks targeting worshippers in and around mosques or their processions, occurred on Fridays.

On May 28, twin fidayeen style attacks in Lahore left nearly 80 people dead, all worshippers from minority Ahmadi sect (also known as Quadianis or Lahoris). Sunni terrorists (suspected Talban and the affiliated Lashkar-e-Jhangvi) stormed two mosques in Garhi Shahu and Model Town taking hundreds of worshippers hostage who congregated for prayer. The terrorists have unleashed coordinated attacks: opening fire indiscriminately at the crowd, simultaneously lobbing hand grenades around, taking hostage and blowing themselves up. Initial reports suggested that at last five terrorists, two at the Model Town mosque and three in Garhi Shahu have perpetrated mayhem for more than three hours. Local media reported late in the day that Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP)’s Punjab wing has claimed responsibility for the twin attacks. Another unknown group al Qaeda Al-Jihad Punjab also claimed responsibility.

On January 5 this year, one Ahmadi leader Muhammad Yousaf was killed by bike borne terrorists in Ferozewala area of Karachi which threatened to aggravate sectarian situation that time. The Tehreek-e-Tahafuz-e-Khatm-e-Nabuwat (TTKN) was blamed for the assassination.

Ahmadis, considered non-Muslims and heretics by the mainstream Muslim populace in Pakistan, are vulnerable religious minorities like Sikhs and Christians. Unlike Shia sect which often faces the wrath of Sunni terrorists with frequent attacks in Pakistan, Ahmadi sect has experienced social discrimination, targeted assassination, but not large scale massacre like May 28 attacks. This could be a begining of a dangerous sectarian trend in Pakistan.

Ignoring al Qaeda’s ideology is a threat to US national security

By Walid Phares

In preparation for the publicizing for the new National Security Strategy by the Obama Administration, Mr John Brennan, White House Advisor on Counter Terrorism said the President’s strategy "is absolutely clear about the threat we face." From such an announcement one would project that the new narrative would be as precise as it should be. That is to define the ideology and the goals of the forces we're facing, namely the Jihadists, either Salafists or Khomeinists. Unfortunately, it was just the opposite. M. Brennan said the Obama Administration doesn’t "describe our enemy as 'Jihadists' or Islamists," because (as he argued) Jihad is a holy struggle, a legitimate tenant of Islam, meaning to purify oneself or one's community." He added that "the use of these religious terms would "play into the false perception" that al-Qaeda and its affiliates are "religious leaders and defending a holy cause, when in fact, they are nothing more than murderers." In reality, abandoning the use of terms such as “Jihadists” or even “Islamists” in defining the threat is a strategic set back in the war of ideas fought against al Qaeda, the Taliban, Shabab al Jihad, Hezbollah, the Pasdaran and all other adherents to Global Jihadism. It is the equivalent in a classical war, of banning the use of radars, AWACs and broadcast. In short, this is a shortcut to utter self defeat.

The premise of the new national security doctrine regarding the identification of the threat and the appropriate names to use is flawed in its root. Linguistically Jihad doesn’t translate into “Holy Struggle,” for the latter in Arabic is “al Nidal al muqaddass.” In its substance Jihad doesn’t mean a purification of oneself in abstract, like Yoga. Theologically it is a call for efforts on behalf of Allah (Jihad fi sabeel Allah) which could take different forms, some of which could be in the battlefield. It is originally a theological notion that US Government officials have no business in defining or redefining as M. Brennan and the national security doctrine of President Obama are attempting to. The United States secular Government shouldn’t enter the fray of stating that Jihad is legitimate or illegitimate from a theological standpoint. Instead they should identify if a particular ideology self described as "Jihadist" is or isn't a source of threat and radicalization.

Anti-Money Laundering: Blocking Terrorist Financing and Its Impact on Lawful Charities

By Matthew Levitt

This morning I had the opportunity to testify before the U.S. House of Representatives Committee on Financial Services Subcommittee on Oversight and Investigations on the topic of "Anti-Money Laundering: Blocking Terrorist Financing and Its Impact on Lawful Charities."

Non-profit organizations are especially susceptible to abuse by terrorists and their supporters for whom charitable or humanitarian organizations are particularly attractive fronts. Here is a selection from my testimony:

The Financial Action Task Force (FATF) – the multilateral body that aims to set global standards for anti-money laundering and counter-terror financing – has found that “Terror networks often use compromised or complicit charities and businesses to support their objectives.” In fact, FATF warned that “the misuse of non-profit organizations for the financing of terrorism is coming to be recognized as a crucial weak point in the global struggle to stop such funding at its source.”

According to the Justice Department, intelligence indicates that terrorists continue to use charities as sources of both financial and logistical support. British officials concur. According to a joint UK Treasury/Home Office report, a “significant proportion” of terror finance investigations in the UK over 2006 included analysis of links to charities. The report found that “the risk of exploitation of charities is a significant aspect of the terrorist finance threat.”

Most charities are completely law-abiding, praiseworthy organizations. But among the minority of charities engaged in supporting terrorism, some are founded with the express purpose of financing terror, while others are infiltrated by terrorist operatives and supporters and co-opted from within. Treasury designations of entire charity tend to focus on the former. Never has the government targeted unwitting donors.

Getting the Moro House in Order?

By Zachary Abuza

On 20 May 2010, the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) and the Moro National Liberation Front (MNLF) penned a coordination agreement under the auspices of the Organization of the Islamic Conference in Tajikistan. This agreement, which was signed by MILF Chairman Ebrahim el-Haj Murad and the MNLF Chairman Nur Misuari, is at the same time, symbolic, legally important, and problematic.

Symbolically, it is important because the two groups loathe each other. They split in 1978, though the MILF was not formally formed until 1984. The MILF sees the MNLF as a bunch of debauched apostates who sold out for a failed peace agreement with the government in 1996. The MNLF have failed to come to terms that the MILF is a separate entity that is larger, more powerful and could potentially win more at the negotiating table. The MNLF has – in essence – become a Tausig organization with limited presence in the Maranao and Maguindanao heartland, while the MILF’s presence in the Sulu archipelago is spotty and on the Island of Basilan especially troubling as they are oftentimes indistinguishable from the Abu Sayyaf Group (ASG).

But the agreement is problematic because not all regard Nur Misuari, the MNLF’s founder, as the legitimate MNLF chairman. After his failed governance from 1996-2001, he was ousted by the MNLF’s Executive Council, and replaced by Muslimin Semma. Misuari led a failed rebellion, fled to Malaysia, which quickly rendered him to the Philippines, where he languished in house arrest until a few years ago. Semma, though less charismatic than Misuari, is a competent administrator and deserves plaudits for running and growing Cotabato City so effectively. Misuari once told me that Semma “is a traitor who should be hung.” Then again, Misuari also talks about himself in the third person and includes himself in the great pantheon of revolutionary leaders (Che Guevara, Ho Chi Minh, you get the picture).

Semma’s faction of the MNLF, which is removed from the Tausig stronghold, has worked well with the MILF over the years. Misuari’s wing tends to embody Tausig chauvinism. But the MNLF has two distinct factions, which still needs to be addressed.

Nonetheless, the agreement has important ramifications for the government’s peace process with the MILF:

The government’s 1996 peace accord with the MNLF created the Autonomous Region of Muslim Mindanao, which now include Maguindanao, Lanao del Sur, Sulu, Tawi Tawi and most of Basilan. The MILF continued fighting for an independent state over a territory that included but was not limited to the ARMM. From 2003-2007, the government and MILF were in peace talks to establish an expanded autonomous region, known as the Bangsamoro Juridical Entity (BJE).

The sticking point was the size and the scope of the BJE. The MILF’s map included 3,978 barangays (villages) in addition to the ARMM, while the government said the Moro ancestral domain only included 613 barangays in addition to the ARMM. Finally in November 2007 the two sides reached a compromise and a draft agreement was signed.

Nonetheless, the security cluster in the President Arroyo’s cabinet, hardliners in the Congress, as well as many Christian leaders in Mindanao rejected the agreement. Moreover, the Supreme Court ruled the agreement unconstitutional, which led the MILF to take up arms once again. Low-level violence has continued since.

But here’s the rub: the MNLF has been vehemently against this agreement, which in effect would nullify their own 1996 autonomy accord. The MNLF insists upon talks with the government to redress what the government has failed to implement since 1996. The MNLF saw the creation of the BJE as patently illegal; and many Filipino leaders agreed with them. The MNLF called for Tripartite Talks, between themselves, the government and OIC to revisit the 1996 Tripoli Accord.

The 2007 draft accord with the MILF, called for ARMM officials to finish their terms, upon which the ARMM would be dissolved. The BJE’s government would be established over an enlarged territory. The draft accord did not outline how the BJE would establish its government. It left that decision – or indecision - to the bickering Moros. The MNLF assumed that the MILF would never relinquish control, and their concerns are founded.

In sum, for the government’s peace accord with the MILF to go forward, there has to be a strong working relationship between the two Moro groups and a shared acceptance of the BJE’s scope and governance. As the agreement said, coordination between the MILF and MNLF was “geared toward achieving the aspirations of the Bangsamoro people for genuine self-governance.”

This is not the first time that the two sides have tried to establish working relationship. Mutual suspicion, differing goals and egos always undermined attempts at coordination. But with a new administration, there is window of opportunity, at least in the eyes of the international community. As the MILF’s chief negotiation Mohagher Iqbal put it, the accord signals “that we are now in the right direction.”

We don’t know where the peace process is heading. Appalling little was said about the peace process by all candidates in this past May’s presidential election, least of all by the apparent winner, Benigno Aquino. We don’t know what policies his administration will put in place, nor the vigor in which he will pursue the peace process. A student of his mother’s presidency, Aquino will unlikely push for policies that antagonize the country’s politicized security forces. But he is an economic pragmatist who understands that the economy can ill-afford more war and further under-development in resource rich Mindanao.

While the Moros have plenty of grievances and mistrust towards government intentions is palpable, their inability to work together has played into the Philippine government’s traditional policy of divide and conquer. The Moros have to get their own house in order, before a durable political settlement can be reached. If properly implemented, and that’s a big if, the two sides can begin to forge a common negotiating framework. The reality is, without a holistic approach, Moro region will continue to be mired in conflict and poverty.

Radical Cleric Freewheeling in Jamaica

By Madeleine Gruen

Faisal Shahzad, the man accused of placing a car bomb in Times Square on May 1, reportedly claimed to authorities that he was inspired by Jamaican cleric Abdullah al-Faisal and the American-born cleric Anwar al-Awlaki.

Anwar al-Awlaki's ability to circulate messages has been significantly diminished in the wake of revelations of his connections to the Fort Hood shooter Nidal Hasan and the would-be Christmas Day airline bomber Umar Farouk Abdulmutallab. However, Abdullah al-Faisal's ability to communicate remains relatively unhindered.

Despite serving a prison sentence in the U.K. for inciting violence, having been recognized as a spiritual mentor to 7/7 bomber Germaine Lindsay and to American James Ujaama, who attempted to establish a terrorist training camp in Bly, Oregon, and getting bounced out of Kenya in January 2010 due to concern over his detrimental influence in the Muslim community, Faisal is still able to communicate freely with followers through his online broadcasts from Jamaica.

A group calling itself The Call2Islam Movement (which is likely a cover for the U.K. extremist group Al Muhajiroun) broadcast a May 2010 Paltalk lecture by Faisal on its Youtube home page. In the lecture, Faisal implied that he is building a following in Jamaica, and praised the Jamaican media for giving him a platform to deliver his message openly:

"I'm having a good time in Jamaica. I can't go into details, but lot of people are taking their Shahada here [converting to Islam] in Jamaica, especially women and this is quite shocking because in the 1980s women did not gravitate towards Islam but now we're in the 2000s and the women are gravitating towards Islam here in Jamaica. The Jamaican media has been extremely good for Islam. They do not give Islam bad press in this country. It's not like the USA and the UK in which they target Islam in order to give it bad press. They allow you to come on the TV and explain [Islam] to the people. They allow you to come on the TV and debate with bishops and priests and expose the falsehood they are preaching to the people. So, the Jamaican media is excellent from that angle."

The NPR report that disclosed Faisal Shahzad's statement to interrogators about drawing spiritual inspiration from Awlaki and al Faisal did not specify whether there was any direct communication between Shahzad and either cleric. Faisal denied to the NPR reporter that he corresponded with Shahzad. Nevertheless, direct communication is not a requirement for incitement. Shahad, like many others, likely found inspiration by downloading lectures and reading statements that are easily accessed on the Internet.

A background report on Abdullah al-Faisal can be read here.

Chávez and Hezollah - The Relationship Revealed

By Douglas Farah

I have not had time to write much recently, but two recent events point to the increasingly overt ties between the Chávez government and international terrorist organizations.

The first, Chávez's help bring the FARC in Colombia and the Spanish ETA together,, I already discussed at some length here.

New revelations are now being published about Chávez's direct (although repeatedly denied) ties to Hezbollah and other radical Islamist groups. A new book, "El Palestino," by Spanish journalist Antonio Salas documents armed camps in Venezuela where the FARC, Hezbollah, ETA and others all train together.

In the book, which comes out later this week, the author says he posed as a Venezuelan Palestinian interested in jihad and ended up traveling around the world after fabricating a new identity. His employer, Antena 3 of Spain, has released some of the hidden camera video he shot to verify his experience.

According to the book's publicity, "It was in Venezuela that he received his baptism of fire. He found that just around the city of Caracas there are six terrorist training camps. There he learned to shoot every kind of weapon. His time there coincided with the training of members of the FARC, ETA and other groups."

There have long been reports of these camps from credible sources, but video and direct, publicly available documentation and first hand experience has not been. This is in keeping with Chávez's broader goals of creating an alliance of state and non-state actors to wage asymmetrical warfare against the United States. It is, quite likely, the worst of all worlds for the rest of Latin America, and beginnings of the solidifying joint venture that will eventually pose and existential threat to the United States.
My full blog is here.

"Target: America": The Attempted Christmas Day Attack on Northwest Flight 253

By Madeleine Gruen

The NEFA Foundation has released its 25th report in the "Target: America" series, a PowerPoint presentation on the attempted terrorist attack on Northwest Flight 253 on Christmas Day 2009. The attempt was perpetrated by 23-year old Umar Farouk Abdulmutallab, a Nigerian raised in a well-to-do family who received a Western-style secondary school education in West Africa and who attended university in London. The report details the attempted attack and describes Abdulmutallab's background; providing insight into his social and spiritual sense of isolation, consequent radicalization, and his connections to Al-Qaida in the Arabian Peninsula.

To view the PowerPoint on the attempted attack and Abdulmutallab's background, please click here.

Ten Years ago, Hezbollah takes over South Lebanon

By Walid Phares

Today is the 10th anniversary of the Israeli withdrawal from southern Lebanon, from what was known then as a "security zone." That geographically limited event has had significant strategic consequences since 2000. A decade after Counter Terrorism and Middle East experts are looking again at the circumstances and effect of that move on today's Hezbollah's expansion and widening arsenal.

During that winter-spring of 2000, discussions were underway at the UN by Lebanese NGOs to enable southern Lebanon to maintain its own local force under international auspices to replace the Israeli forces, which were potentially to withdraw from the area. The idea was to provide protection to the populations of the borders areas from an advance by Hezbollah all the way to the international demarcation lines. Such takeover by the Jihadist militia was expected to provoke an exodus by thousands of civilians who would have been subjected to Hezbollah's persecution. However suddenly on May 23, the Israeli Government then under Prime Minister Ehud Barak ordered a quick pull out from the security zone without waiting for the local force, at the time known as 'South Lebanon Army' (SLA) to be transferred under the United Nations or to operate as a local force to stop Hezbollah until the UN would decide what to do.

US national security is targeted by al Qaeda and Iran’s strategic threats

By Walid Phares

al Qaeda and its nebulous: One Threat

President Obama informed the graduating Cadets at West Point that the US will be facing the threat of al Qaeda for a long time to come. Defining the long term strategic threats is a very useful policy action both to Americans who need to brace for forthcoming challenges but also to audiences in the region to better understand US strategic priorities. In the same frame of mind, I published an article in the weekly al Watan al al Arabi where I outlined what I believe are America’s permanent strategic positions in the Middle East related to US national Security. Based on my work with members of Congress sitting on relevant defense and national security committees and on my interaction with many strategic and tactical analysts across the Government and private sector fields for many years, the consensus reached so far is that the two main (and active) threats against US national security in the post Cold War era are and continue to be the Salafi-Jihadi global networks including al Qaeda and a plethora of webs and organizations all marching in the same direction on the one hand; and on the other hand what I coin as the “Iranian-led axis” which incorporates the Tehran Khomeinist regime, Hezbollah, the radical pro-Iranians in Iraq and in other Arab countries and the Syrian regime’s Mukhabarat.

Confronting a Resilient al-Qaeda: The U.S. Strategic Response

By Matthew Levitt

In the latest lecture in The Washington Institute's counterterrorism lecture series, the State Department's coordinator for counterterrorism, Ambassador Daniel Benjamin, spoke on "Confronting a Resilient al-Qaeda: The U.S. Strategic Response."

Ambassador Benjamin described the evolving threat and increasing resilience of al-Qaeda and other terrorist organizations, which have been brought into stark relief by a number of recent events, including the attempted car bombing in Times Square and the December 2009 airline bomb plot. His talk focused on ways the U.S. government is refining its existing strategy to counter this evolution in dynamic threats.

The full text of his talk, and an audio link as well, can be found here.

Crime Links Aid Counter-Terror Efforts

By Matthew Levitt

In October 2008, after a two-year joint investigation by U.S. and Colombian authorities, the Colombian government arrested thirty-six individuals on money laundering and drug charges. According to authorities, this network — comprised of Lebanese expatriates —was more than a traditional criminal syndicate, and was shipping a portion of its profits back to Hezbollah in Lebanon.

These types of cases — where terrorist groups and organized crime networks are closely intertwined — are growing far more common. These “hybrid” organizations — part terrorist group, part organized crime network — are significant challenges to law enforcement, militaries, and policymakers.

While this growing linkage is certainly a dangerous trend from the U.S. perspective, it also presents opportunities for policymakers. As the nexus of terrorism and criminal activity intensifies, targeting terrorist groups’ criminal activities becomes an increasingly effective strategy. Terrorist networks are becoming transnational; a key challenge in confronting them is to achieve international cooperation in counterterrorism initiatives. By capitalizing on terrorists’ criminal activity, governments can leverage their strategies of international cooperation and diplomatic engagement to gain broader support against converging criminal and terrorist groups.

My full article, published by Oxford Analytica, is available here.

Jamaican Cleric Shaykh Abdullah al-Faisal Alleged To Have Inspired Times Square Suspect

By Evan Kohlmann

From NPR:

The man accused in the failed Times Square bombing attempt has been talking to authorities for more than two weeks. And one of the things he told them, according to people close to the case, is that he was inspired to act by two Internet clerics — one in Yemen and another in Jamaica... The other cleric is a less familiar figure. His name is Abdullah Faisal, a 46-year-old convert to Islam who is from Jamaica... I did have a long talk with him and in the process got answers to many of the questions that have been swirling around him ever since he became one of the first Internet imams linked to the possible radicalization of young Muslims. He's been linked to two of the men who blew up transportation targets in the U.K. in 2005. He was a mentor to a Jamaican convert, Germaine Lindsay, who died in that 2005 suicide bombing. He has also been linked to the man who wanted to set up a terrorism training camp in Oregon several years ago. He was an imam at the Brixton Mosque in London when Richard Reid, the shoe bomber, worshipped there. Zacharias Moussaoui, the 20th hijacker in the Sept. 11 attacks, was also a follower of his. More recently, Faisal was sentenced to prison in the U.K. for calling followers to kill Jews, Americans and Hindus in one of his CD lectures. He served more than four years, then ended up in Africa. He was just deported to Jamaica from Kenya a couple of months ago for allegedly trying to recruit people there for violent jihad — a charge he denies.

For more background on Abdullah al-Faisal, I reprint content from my July 2005 post, "Where do Homegrown British Suicide Bombers Come From? Part II":

Shaykh Abdullah al-Faisal [is] a Jamaican-born Islamic convert and religious leader now serving a lengthy prison sentence for inciting young Muslims to kill Jews and Hindus. Faisal's indoctrination into fundamentalism took place in Saudi Arabia, where he studied at an Islamic university and became a firm devotee of extreme Salafist clerics in the Kingdom. After completing his studies in Saudi Arabia, Faisal later told UK police that "he was sent to the United Kingdom to preach by Sheikh Rajhi"--an apparent reference to the wealthy and powerful Saudi Al-Rajhi family that has been repeatedly accused of supporting international terrorism. Settling in Brixton, al-Faisal regularly surfaced to deliver sermons to his followers at the local town hall--but also traveled and spoke before other audiences in Manchester, Worthing, Bournemouth, Cardiff, Swansea, and Birmingham. According to legal documents filed in his criminal case, each of Faisal's lectures was "attended by 100 people and sometimes [as many as] 500."

What was Faisal ordering his hundreds of followers to do?

[Click to hear audio c/o Flashpoint Global Partners]

"Another aim and objective of jihad is to drive terror in the hearts of the [infidels]. To terrorize them. Did you know that we were commanded in the Qur'an with terrorism? ...Allah said, and prepare for them to the best of your ability with power, and with horses of war. To drive terror in the hearts of my enemies, Allah's enemies, and your enemies. And other enemies which you don't know, only Allah knows them... So we were commanded to drive terror into the hearts of the [infidels], to prepare for them with the best of our abilities with power. Then the Prophet said, nay, the power is your ability to shoot. The power which you are commanded with here, is your ability to shoot. Another aim and objective of jihad is to kill the [infidels], to lessen the population of the [infidels]... it is not right for a Prophet to have captives until he makes the Earth warm with blood... so, you should always seek to lessen the population of the [infidels]."

In fact, Shaykh Abdullah al-Faisal's message was so potent and effective--particularly among Western converts to Islam--that it spread even to the United States. In the years leading up to 9/11, a group of Faisal's faithful established an alternate base of operations in San Diego, where they marketed tapes endorsing jihad and raised money to help free the Egyptian Sheikh Omar Abdel Rahman. Faisal's supporters in the U.S. also set up an Internet website--www.islamicjihad.com--where American Muslims could seek the advice of the fanatical Jamaican cleric. Responding to one question submitted online, Faisal explained, "I fully endorse the verdict in regards to martyrdom operations. I would recommend to all Muslims who slipped into [atheism] and is now suffering from the disease AIDS to come forward and volunteer to carry out such operations in order to die with some form of dignity and prestige. With this maybe Allah will forgive you of your sins and give you [heaven]."

Can what took place in London on 7/7 and 7/21 also happen here in the U.S.? If Faisal's constituents are of any indication, unfortunately, the answer would seem to be yes. One of the regular visitors to Shaykh Faisal's online forum in early 2001 was an Islamic convert and Al-Qaida sympathizer claiming to be a veteran of the U.S. Army living in the Washington D.C. area. "Muhammad Daoud al-Marylandi" identified himself as a "former satcom operator, tactical network switching administrator and several other teams", warning other forum participants to use encryption on communications in order to evade detection by U.S. law enforcement. He also vigorously advocated that his fellow radicals begin military training at once. In one message, he pleaded: "Brothers, start learning something even if is Morse code. Prepare your mindset for jihad if anything. SO you must take it upon yourselves and myself [god-willing] to begin training and learning. May Allah(swt) bless all of us with success in this life and the next ." In an earlier post, "Muhammad Daood" was more specific about what exactly he meant by training: "Learn about weapons every type you can imagine. ANd learn about: Breathe Relax Aim and Squeeze. Get in Shape, [god-willing] the [infidel's] military have left me in great shape. [Praise God]. Learn CLOSE QUARTER COMBAT."

An Interesting New Book on the Origins of the Muslim Brotherhood in Europe

By Douglas Farah

For those seeking to understand the origins and agenda of the international Muslim Brotherhood, Ian Johnson's new book,A Mosque in Munich: Nazis, the CIA and Rise of the Muslim Brotherhood in the West provides a fascinating back story to what we see today both in Europe and the United States.

Johnson, a veteran reporter for the Wall Street Journal, uses declassified documents, presidential archives and interviews and archives of survivors from that time to engagingly unravel the history of the first beachhead of radical Islamists in the Western world. As we now know, the international Muslim Brotherhood, with deep ties to that mosque, went on to establish another beachhead in the United States, where it operates today.

Patiently advancing its agenda over decades, the MB legacy groups in the United States made great inroads in the Bush administration and have reached unprecedented influence in the Obama administration.

But to understand how the group got here, one has to understand the Eisenhower administration's welcoming of MB leaders to the White House (perhaps the single most important legitimizing event for the MB in the United States) in the hopes that the group would advance a joint anti-Communist agenda.

A Mosque in Munich, as Johnson said, "starts during World War II with the Nazis deciding they could use Muslims to fight the Soviet Union. Then, after the war, the very same group of Muslims are recruited by the CIA to do the same thing--fight the Soviets by using Islam. This group is then taken over by the Muslim Brotherhood, which uses Munich as a beachhead to spread into the West. This is twenty years before Afghanistan and the mujahidin; it's the prequel to a lot of what's gone on since.
Plus, this continues right up to the present. The Muslim Brotherhood still plays a key role in setting a radical agenda for Islam in Europe. It's no coincidence that the mosque in Munich is associated with many major terrorist attacks in the West, including the two attacks on the World Trade Center. As our governments try to figure out how to deal with Islam, we need to know our own history first."

It is a lesson that successive administrations have failed to learn, reflected in our fundamental misunderstanding of the MB groups in the United States and Europe as voice of moderation who can help us counter "radicalization" in the Muslim world.

This is important history, and shows how consistently underestimated and misunderstood the radical MB agenda has been, both in Europe and the United States. While the CIA and Nazis felt they were using the MB, in the end the MB ended up advancing its own agenda far more than those, and that influence endures to this day.

Johnson will be doing several book events in the Washington, D.C. area in coming days and it would be worth hearing the story he has unraveled and its implications for us today.

Time Square message: Many 'lone wolves' attempts makes it a terror campaign

By Walid Phares

Time Square security deployment

In the first few hours following the discovery of the car bomb in Time Square and the subsequent arrest of Faisal Shahzad at the airport, New York’s Governor David Patterson labeled the foiled car bomb attack in Times Square an “act of terror.” Janet Napolitano, our secretary of Homeland Security described it as “potential (then) act of terror.” Gradually US officials agreed, as information was gathered and more arrests were made, that this was an attack with the goal of mass killing in an urban area. Indeed, if the three propane tanks, fireworks, two filled 5-gallon gasoline containers, and two clocks with batteries, electrical wire and other components found in the back of the Nissan Pathfinder, had exploded they would have –in the words of Police Commissioner Raymond Kelly “caused a significant ball of fire.” New York’s Mayor Bloomberg said the explosion could have caused “huge damage on a block of Broadway theaters and restaurants teeming with tourists.” In short, federal and local officials understand clearly that the SUV-bomb was aimed at killing a large group of New Yorkers and visitors, causing severe damage to the area and a shock to the public (who would be traumatized by the sight of such pictures), had the “act of terror” been successful.

Iran and Venezuela: Taking it to the Next Level

By Douglas Farah

The recent unclassified Pentagon assessment of Iran's military powerreleased last month to Congress shows official reporting is finally catching up to reality on the ground in regard to Iran's Latin American activities. The increase comes at a time of deep economic troubles for the Chávez government in Venezuela, as noted by the Hudson Institute's Jaime Daremblum.

It is also only the most public looks at how Venezuela and Iran are enhancing their military partnerships, particularly in field of asymmetrical warfare where both states are hoping to use their non-state proxies to take on the "Empire," meaning the United States. For a range of views on this, see my chapter and others in Woodrow Wilson Center publication Iran in Latin America: Threat or Axis of Annoyance?

The assessment contains several interesting nuggets, including that Iran's highest priority is the survival of the regime, and hence its fixation with asymmetrical warfare and its outreach to groups that oppose U.S. interests. This includes the Boliviarian states of Latin America. (For those who read Spanish, I have an article in the most recent Poder magazine on some of these issues). The DOD assessment does not discuss Iran's blossoming financial network across the region.

Some of the key findings that relate to Latin America and Iran's MO in the region:

Diplomacy, economic leverage, soft power and active sponsorship of terrorist and paramilitary groups are tools Iran uses to drive its aggressive foreign policy. In particular, it uses terrorism to pressure or intimidate other countries and more broadly to leverage its strategic deterrent.

The Iran regime uses the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps - Qods Force (IRGC-QF) to clandestinely exert military, political, and economic power to advance Iranian national interests abroad. The IRGC-QF global activities include: gathering tactical intelligence; conducting covert diplomacy; providing training, arms and financial support to surrogate groups and terrorist organizations; and facilitating some of Iran's provision of humanitarian and economic support to Islamic causes.

Support for extremists takes the form of providing arms, funding and paramilitary training. In this, IRGC-QF is not constrained by ideology; many of the groups it supports do not share, and sometimes openly oppose, Iranian revolutionary principles but Iran supports them because they share common interests or enemies.

My full blog is here.

New Terrorism: Five days in Manhattan

By Roderick Jones

Two events centered on New York City separated by five days demonstrated the end of one phase of terrorism and the pending arrival of the next. The failed car-bombing in Times square and the dizzying stock market crash less than a week later mark the book ends of terrorist eras.

The attempt by Faisal Shahzad to detonate a car bomb in Times Square was notable not just for its failure but also the severely limited systemic impact a car-bomb could have, even when exploding in crowded urban center. Car-bombs or Vehicle-Borne IED’s have a long history (incidentally one of the first was the 1920 ‘cart and horse bomb’ in Wall Street, which killed 38 people). VBIED’s remain deadly as a tactic within an insurgency or warfare setting but with regard to modern urban terrorism the world has moved on. We are now living within a highly virtualized system and the dizzying stock-market crash on the 6th May 2010 shows how vulnerable this system is to digital failure. While the NYSE building probably remains a symbolic target for some terrorists a deadly and capable adversary would ignore this physical manifestation of the financial system and disrupt the data-centers, software and routers that make the global financial system tick. Shahzad’s attempted car-bomb was from another age and posed no overarching risk to western societies. The same cannot be said of the vulnerable and highly unstable financial system.

Computer aided crash (proof of concept for future cyber-attack)

There has yet to be a definitive explanation of how stocks such as Proctor and Gamble plunged 47% and the normally solid Accenture plunged from a value of roughly $40 to one cent, based on no external input of information into the financial system. The SEC has issued directives in recent years boosting competition and lowering commissions, which has had the effect of fragmenting equity trading around the US and making it highly automated. This has created four leading exchanges, NYSE Euronext, Nasdaq OMX Group, Bats Global Market and Direct Edge; and secondary exchanges include International Securities Exchange, Chicago Board Options Exchange, the CME Group and the Intercontinental Exchange. There are also broker-run matching systems like those run by Knight and ITG and so called ‘dark-pools’ where trades are matched privately with prices posted publicly only after trades are done. As similar picture has emerged in Europe, where rules allowing competition with established exchanges and known by the acronym “Mifid” have led to a similar explosion of types and venues.

To navigate this confusing picture traders have to rely on ‘smart order routers’ – electronic systems that seek the best price across all of the platforms. Therefore, trades are done in vast data centers – not in exchange buildings. This total automation of trading allows for the use of a variety of ‘trading algorithms’ to manage investment themes. The best known of these is a ‘Volume Algo’, which ensures throughout the day that a trader maintains his holding in a share at a pre-set percentage of that share’s overall volume, automatically adjusting buy and sell instructions to ensure that percentage remains stable whatever the market conditions. Algorithms such as this have been blamed for exacerbating the rapid price moves on May 6th. High-frequency traders are the biggest proponents of algos and they account for up to 60% of US equity trading.

The most likely cause of the collapse on May 6th was the slowing down or near stop on one side of the trading pool. So in very basic terms a large number of sell orders started backing up on one side of the system (at the speed of light) with no counter-parties taking the order on the other side of the trade. The counter-party side of the trade slowed or stopped causing this almost instant pile-up of orders. The algorithms on the other side finding no buyer for their stocks kept offering lower prices (as per their software) until they attracted a buyer. However, as no buyer’s appeared on the still slowed or stopped counter-party side prices tumbled at an alarming rate. Fingers have pointed at the NYSE for causing the slow down on one side of the trading pool as it instituted some kind of circuit breaker into the system, which caused all the other exchanges to pile-up on the other side of the trade. There has also been a focus on one particular trade, which may have been the spark igniting the NYSE ‘circuit breaker’. Whatever the precise cause, once events were set in train the system had in no way caught up with the new realities of automated trading and diversified exchanges.

More nodes, same assumptions

On one level this seems to defy conventional thinking about security – more diversity greater strength – not all nodes in a network can be compromised at the same time. By having a greater number of exchanges surely the US and global financial system is more secure? However, in this case, the theory collapses quickly if thinking is switched from examining the physical to the virtual. While all of the exchanges are physically and operationally separate they all seemingly share the same software and crucially trading algorithms that all have some of the same assumptions. In this case they all assumed that because they could find no counter-party to the trade they needed to lower the price (at the speed of light). The system is therefore highly vulnerable because it relies on one set of assumptions that have been programmed into lighting fast algorithms. If a national circuit breaker could be implemented (which remains doubtful) then this could slow rapid descent but it doesn’t take away the power of the algorithms – which are always going to act in certain fundamental ways ie continue to lower the offer price if they obtain no buy order. What needs to be understood are the fundamental ways in which all the trading algorithms move in concert. All will have variances but they will all share key similarities, understanding these should lead to the design of logic circuit breakers.

New Terrorism

However, for now the system looks desperately vulnerable to both generalized and targeted cyber attack and this is the opportunity for the next generation of terrorists. There has been little discussion as to whether the events of last Thursday were prompted by malicious means but it certainly is worth mentioning. At a time when Greece was burning launching a cyber attack against this part of the US financial system would clearly have been stunningly effective. Combining political instability with a cyber attack against the US financial system would create enough doubt about the cause of a market drop for the collapse gain rapid traction. Using targeted cyber attacks to stop one side of the trade within these exchanges (which are all highly automated and networked) would, as has now been proven, cause a dramatic collapse. This could also be adapted and targeted at specific companies or asset classes to cause a collapse in price. A scenario where-by one of the exchanges slows down its trades surrounding the stock of a company the bad-actor is targeting seems both plausible and effective.

A hybrid cyber and kinetic attack could also cause similar damage – as most trades are now conducted within data-centers – it begs the question why are there armed guards outside the NYSE – of course if retains some symbolic value but security resources would be better placed outside of the data-centers where these trades are being conducted. A kinetic attack against financial data centers responsible for these trades would surely have a devastating effect. Finding the location of these data centers is as simple as conducting a Google search.

In order for terrorism to have impact in the future it needs to shift its focus from the weapons of the 20th Century to those of the present day. Using their current tactics the Pakistan Taliban and their assorted fellow-travelers cannot fundamentally damage western society. That battle is over. However, the next era of conflict motivated by a radicalism from as yet unknown grievances, fueled by a globally networked generation Y, their cyber weapons of choice and the precise application of ultra-violence and information spin has dawned. Five days in Manhattan flashed a light on this new era.

Roderick Jones

Counter-Terrorism Offensive in Indonesia

By Kenneth Conboy

Indonesian counter-terrorist police went on the offensive yesterday (12 May), staging raids in three different locations on the island of Java. In Cawang, East Jakarta, the police at noon attempted to arrest three men getting out of a taxi, but ended up shooting dead all three when they resisted. One of the three was identified as Maulana, an Indonesian national who had been detained in Malaysia during 2003-2005 after he had returned from a terrorist training camp in the southern Philippines. Maluana had been declared a fugitive after being linked to another terrorist training camp uncovered in Aceh this past February.

In Cikampek, West Java province, two suspected terrorists were shot dead at 1300 hours on 12 May when they resisted arrest. One of the two was identified as Saptono. Like Maulana, Saptono had been detained in Malaysia until 2005, and had been linked to the terrorist training camp in Aceh. The police uncovered in Cikampek a cache containing two rifles, a revolver, and a considerable amount of ammunition.

In Solo, Central Java province, the police arrested one suspected terrorist on 12 May and another on the morning of 13 May.

All of the above raids were based on intelligence gleaned after twelve terrorists were arrested in a series of arrests around Jakarta on 6 May. The police are now claiming that these radicals belonged to a group dubbed “al-Qaeda Aceh,” which is purported to be an offshoot of Jemaah Islamiyah responsible for the training camp on Aceh exposed in February.

Preparing for the Next Terrorist

By Matthew Levitt

Last weekend, a combination of good fortune and exceptional law enforcement prevented a potential tragedy in Times Square and led to the capture of the alleged attempted bomber before he could leave the country.
Next time -- and there will be a next time -- we may not be so lucky.

The startling and depressing truth is that eight years after Sept. 11, we cannot say with confidence that we are likely to prevent the next attack here. The reason is not insufficient attention, resources or effort. It's the fact that there is no such thing as 100 percent success in counterterrorism.

We need to get it right every day; our opponents need to penetrate our defenses just once. Indeed, this is not the first time we got lucky. Several plots since Sept. 11 -- think Richard Reid, a.k.a. the "shoe bomber" -- were not so much foiled as failed.

The takeaway is that fortifying our defenses at home and pursuing our adversaries abroad is not enough. We must also prepare for the attacks that succeed despite our best efforts to stop them. Fostering resilience within American society is not surrendering to terrorism. Quite the opposite.

My full article, which appeared in Politico, is available here.

Ajmal Amir Kasab: Face of Mumbai Carnage Gets Death

By Animesh Roul

[Originally published as “Convicted Mumbai terrorist better serves Indian security interests if kept alive” in the “Jurist” Hotline]

Mohammed Ajmal Amir Kasab, the lone surviving terrorist in the November 2008 Mumbai attacks has been sentenced to death by the court on May 6. Kasab was found guilty earlier that week and convicted for mindless murder and waging war against the country.
The most surprising aspect of the trial was the acquittal of other two accused, Fahim Ansari and Sabauddin Ahmed for lack of evidence. Both of them are Indian nationals and accused of having surveyed Mumbai and drawn maps of the targets at the behest of Pakistan based Lashkar-e-Taiba.

Though the death sentence was widely expected, many in India believe that the actual execution might be delayed due to number of legal factors. For example, Kasab can appeal in the High Court and the apex court subsequently which is obviously time consuming. Even if he gets nothing from these courts, he still has one last chance - the Presidential pardon.

Consider the example of Afzal Guru, the prime convict in the December 13, 2001 Parliament attack case, who was sentenced to death way back in 2006, and is still awaiting execution due to the archaic legal system prevalent in India. There are nearly 25 such cases awaiting Presidential approval.

To recollect the horror, Mumbai terror incidents took nearly 170 lives including the nine terrorists affiliated to the Pakistan based Lashkar-e-Taiba. Kasab was involved in the railway platform shooting in that fateful night.

Special Judge M. L. Tahaliyani who handed out the verdict said Kasab has lost the right to any humanitarian benefits.

However, the verdict serves two strategic purposes, besides pleasing the domestic clamor for capital punishment for Kasab. By giving the death penalty, India’s judicial system proves that strong action can be taken against any killers, motivated, brainwashed or otherwise. Also, it aims to be a deterrent for any terrorists sitting across the border. Plausibly enough, any leniency towards Kasab would have sent a wrong signal to jihadis in Pakistan and their homegrown brethren in India.

Whether swift death or a delayed execution, the end of Kasab might not help India to get all the masterminds of Mumbai carnage who are still moving freely in Pakistan. A living Kasab can give a better bargaining option against Pakistan and for the first time ever Kasab’s capture caught Pakistan on a back foot since it adopted a proxy war strategy against its eastern neighbor.”

Slideshow: "The Times Square Bomb Plot Videos"

By Evan Kohlmann

Flashpoint Global Partners has released an exclusive multimedia slideshow tracking the origin and provenance of video recordings produced by Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (the Pakistani Taliban) which appear to claim responsibility for the most recent failed "Times Square" bomb plot in New York.

See: http://www.flashpoint-intel.com/images/documents/pdf/0510/timessquare.pdf

As a result of information documented in the slideshow, we have reached the following tentative conclusions:

- The video recordings released by Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) on May 2, 2010 appear to be legitimate and authentic. Both recordings were apparently produced by the same party, as they carry identical English-language subtitles. Moreover, it is highly unlikely that another party would be capable of producing a fraudulent video of Hakimullah Mehsud, particularly one that clearly matches previous authenticated TTP propaganda material.

- The video recordings released by Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) claiming credit for attacks in the United States were originally posted on the Internet via YouTube and the “Ansar al-Mujahideen” English discussion forum.

- Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) appears to have had clear foreknowledge that a terrorist attack was to occur in the United States on May 1 or 2. Aside from the recording date given for the Hakimullah Mehsud video, the Taliban YouTube channel itself was first created on April 30 – only hours before the failed execution of the Times Square bomb plot.

- The same party responsible for creating the English-language subtitles on the TTP videos claiming responsibility for attacks appears to have personally posted these recordings on the Internet, including the Ansar al-Mujahideen English chat forum and the Taliban YouTube channel. The spelling and unusual pattern of capitalization in the English-subtitles match almost exactly the the comments subsequently posted online by users “TalibanNews” and “TehreekeTaliban.”

- Given the timing of the comments posted on YouTube by “TehreekeTaliban”, it is highly unlikely that the source of the videos was prime suspect Faisal Shahzad. At the time of the last online posting via YouTube—7pm on May 3—Shahzad was already on his way to John F. Kennedy International Airport in New York.

Terrorist Arrests in Jakarta

By Kenneth Conboy

On 6 May, the Indonesian counter-terrorist unit, Special Detachment 88, arrested seven persons in South Jakarta on suspicion of terrorist activities. Though details of the arrests have yet to be revealed, a police source stated that the seven moved to Jakarta a year ago and had been under surveillance for the past three months.

The Indonesian media has speculated that one of the suspects may be Abu Thola, who was at one time head of the Special Forces wing of Jemaah Islamiyah. He was the target of a failed police raid in Central Java in 2003. The media has further speculated that the police are targeting Thola because he may have information on links between fiery cleric Abu Bakar Ba'asyir and Jemaah Islamiyah. Ba'asyir was convicted but later exonerated of leading Jemaah Islamiyah.

Following the arrests, the police hinted that more were to come in the near future. With U.S. President Barack Obama slated to pass through Jakarta next month, these moves may be part of a wider effort to guarantee security ahead of the visit.

HuJI: Reaching beyond the Subcontinent

By Animesh Roul

I have contributed one article in the latest issue of Terrorism Monitor (Jamestown Foundation, Washington DC), titled " HuJI Operations Expand Beyond the Indian Subcontinent” Vol 8 (7), April 29 2010. The article underscores the threat emanating from the Harkat-ul-Jihad al-Islami (HuJI), the al Qaeda linked Islamic terrorist group and discusses about its transnational reach.

Here is the abstract of the article:

Raja Lahrasib Khan, a suspected HuJI operative, was arrested in Chicago on charges of providing material support to al-Qaeda in late March 2010. Khan, a U.S. citizen of Pakistani origin, is suspected of planning a terrorist strike this August on a “big stadium” in the United States along with Pakistan based HuJI chief Ilyas Kashmiri, the notorious former Pakistani army commando who now commands the deadly 313 Brigade he created within HuJI. The 313 Brigade has operational ties with al-Qaeda (Chicago Tribune, March 30; Times of India, April 6). It is alleged that Khan transferred approximately $950 from a currency exchange in Chicago to an unidentified recipient in Bimbur in Pakistan administered Kashmir (PAK). According to the charges, Khan believed Kashmiri was working directly for al-Qaeda and made efforts to deliver the money when Kashmiri indicated he needed funds to buy explosives (Huffington Post, April 5). Khan is believed to have met with Kashmiri at least once in Pakistan (Reuters, March 27).

Elsewhere, Golam Mostafa, a Bangladeshi-born British citizen and the U.K. HuJi unit chief, was arrested in Sylhet, Bangladesh for his alleged involvement in financing militant groups and attempts to reorganize terrorist organizations in the region, including Hizb ut-Tahrir and Jama’tul Mujahideen Bangladesh (New Nation [Dhaka], April 18; for Hizb ut-Tahrir, see Daily Independent [Dhaka], April 29). Mostafa, a veteran of the anti-Soviet Afghan jihad and a fund raiser for the Bosnian mujahideen, was re-arrested almost 14 months after he came out of jail on a High Court bail order. According to Dhaka police authorities, the security agencies back in London have also leveled various money laundering charges and seized various incriminating documents from his Birmingham residence. He escaped to Bangladesh in 2007. A restaurateur by profession, Mostafa used to send funds from Birmingham through informal channels to further militancy in Bangladesh until 2007 (Daily Star [Dhaka], April 18).

Chipping Away at the Abu Sayyaf

By Zachary Abuza

President Arroyo has stepped up the offensive against the Abu Sayyaf in the past few months, in a sad attempt to bolster her legacy ahead of this month's presidential poles. There have been some limited success. But the fact that the ASG has retaken such a toehold on Basilan is disturbing, after they had been so effectively eradicated from the island.

A recent analysis of the state of the ASG and the government's recent offensive was published in this months Sentinel by our friends at West Point's Combatting Terrorism Center, and can be found here.

European Court Okays Payments to Spouses of Designated Terrorists

By Victor Comras

There is an interesting new twist to the Security Council proscription against providing financial assets to or for the benefit of designated Al Qaeda and Taliban members. The European Court of Justice has just overturned a long held UK government practice of withholding payment of social security and other entitlements to the spouses of individuals designated by the UN Al Qaeda and Taliban Sanctions Committee. Such payments were withheld on the basis that Security Council resolutions required all countries to:

"Freeze without delay the funds and other financial assets or economic resources of these individuals, groups, undertakings and entities, including funds derived from property owned or controlled directly or indirectly, by them or by persons acting on their behalf or at their direction, and ensure that neither these nor any other funds, financial assets or economic resources are made available, directly or indirectly for such persons’ benefit, or by their nationals or by persons within their territory”

The ruling came down April 29th in the case of M and Others v Her Majesty’s Treasury (Case number C 340/08). The case had been referred to the European Court from the UK House of Lords which was troubled by this UK government rule.

The European Union had adopted a common position in 2002 giving force to the UN freeze measures. It left it to member countries to work out the details and to regulate implementation in accordance with domestic laws. The UK authorities decided that, in order to ensure that such social payments payments would not accrue to the benefit of designated entities, special measures should be in place to regulate such social payments. The regulations issued required that such benefit payments could be paid to terrorist spouses only upon their application for a license granting such payments, and then only to a bank account in the spouses name. Payments would be made in limited amounts calculated to cover each member of the household except the designated individual. “M” who apparently is the spouse of a designated individual challenged the application of these measures before the House of Lords and the Lords referred the case to the European Court.
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Attorneys for the UK Treasury argued that the prohibition laid down by the Security Council resolution and the EU directive should apply whenever a designated individual might well also benefit from the funds, as was most likely the case with payments made to persons in the same household. Such a situation, they maintained, required extraordinary precautions. However, the court took a much narrower view. The court indicated that the essential purpose and object of the asset freeze was to combat international terrorism, and to cut off terrorists from financial resources that would be used for terrorist activities. Yet, it should be presumed, the court reasoned, that the social payments involved here would be used only for household expenses. If and when such payments were turned over to the designated spouse for terrorist purposes, the court reasoned, the UK authorities could then hold the spouse accountable other UK laws and penalties.

While this decision seems quite mundane, its effect is to narrow the scope of the all important "for and on behalf" restrictions contained in the Security Council resolutions. It may also presages a further liberal tilting of the court in what will soon be another round of the Kadi case which is still weaving its way back up to the European Union’s highest court.