In early September 2009, Pakistani officials and Western intelligence agencies believed that Ilyas Kashmir, Al Qaeda/HuJI operations chief in Pakistan and another close aide of Bin Laden, a Uzbek terrorist commander identified as Nazimuddin Zalalov (a.ka. Yahyo) have been killed in missile attacks in Turrikhel area of North Waziristan.

The other two names, Headly and Rana came as a bit of surprise to many in India and in the US. But their plan made one thing clear about the intention and capability of terrorist outfits (like LeT, Al Qaeda and JeM) that have transnational reach and global Jihadi agenda. These two men are part of a Lashkar-e-Taiba plot to attack major landmarks in India and Denmark. The US investigating agencies, including the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) have so far neutralized what is now dubbed as LeT’s ‘Chicago Terror Plot’. Headley was arrested early in October 2009 by the Joint Terrorism Task Force at Chicago’s O’Hare International Airport. He was reportedly planning to travel to Pakistan in near future to meet Ilyas Kashmiri and other terrorist leaders. His accomplice and co plotter Rana was arrested from Chicago later in that month.

According to FBI affidavit filed in a Chicago court, Headley had visited Pakistan a number of times before and constantly in touch with his LeT handlers (two Pakistan based LeT terrorists are still to be identified) in Pakistan through emails. As per the FBI the email communications revealed that a LeT mastermind in Pakistan was placing a higher priority on using Headley to assist in planning a new attack in India than on completing the planned attack in Denmark (facilities of Jayland Posten, the Danish newspaper which carried a cartoon strip of Prophet Muhammad in 2005 and perhaps (I suspect) a commando type assault during the upcoming Climate Summit). Any audacious attacks on these spots (and in India) would have given Lashkar-e-Taiba a position parallel to Al Qaeda in the international terrorism arena.

In June 2003, FBI made a similar breakthrough arresting at least seven Lashkar sympathizers or world be terrorists from in and around Washington region (3 from Maryland, 3 from Virginia and one in Pennsylvania), for providing material support to LeT.

The latest foiled LeT plot targeted vital landmarks, installations and elite boarding schools, as per the FBI investigations. The LeT is obviously planning Nov 2008 Mumbai type assaults in India and the possible targets were National Defense College, New Delhi, Doon School in Dehradun and Woodstock School in Mussoorie. It has been reported also that these terrorists have major plans to target the American and the Israeli nationals in India.

We find nothing new about the latest and earlier Lashkar planning to target India, Israelis and Americans. The threat emanates from LeT is still vivid in public memory: during October 2000 annual convention of the LeT in Lahore's Gulshan-i-Iqbal park where LeT chief Hafiz Saeed uttered anti India and Anti Israel rhetoric following a blast that took place near the venue. He held India and Israel responsible for the blast and threatened revenge; and of course his infamous utterances that LeT would plant the 'flag of Islam' in Washington, Tel Aviv and New Delhi.

Barely twenty more days to go when India will observe the first anniversary of Mumbai terror mayhem (26/11, 2008). The memory of that sixty odd hours of ordeal will again haunt us for some time and then ‘business as usual’. The question to ponder here is how far we have progressed so far since 26/11, especially to fight the menace like Mumbai or Chicago type assults and plots.

A complete English translation of the letter to Shabaab from Gaza can be accessed via the NEFA Foundation website.

A complete English version of the Zabiullah Mujahid interview can be accessed via the NEFA Foundation website.

The Fort Hood killings, perpetrated by Major Malik Nadal Hasan, a psychiatric by training, no matter what the judiciary reports will conclude is for now the largest single Terror act in America since 9/11. This quantitative finding will take into consideration dramatic change in the data released by authorities.

The shooting inside a US military installation that led to the killing of many personnel compels us to ponder. Over the past few years and months authorities have stopped attempts on similar attacks. The Fort Dix Jihadi plot, dismantled in 2006, aimed at performing a killing of military personnel inside the base. Other cells, dismantled in Georgia, New York and North Carolina also had plans for attacking military installations on US soil. But more importantly a number of lone wolves have also expressed intentions to attack military personnel.

This year, a person by the name Abdulhakim Mujahid Muhammad, 23, shot two US military at the Army-Navy Career Center in a shopping center in west Little Rock, killing one. In cyberspace Jihadi threats against US military in the homeland and against American cities has been ongoing. Information collected by authorities, including from suspects and indicted individuals has shown a pattern by the Jihadists (militants or propagandists) indicating their intentions to strike at military and security installations.

Such incident in Fort Hood, whatever is the personal motive, falls in the category of demonization of the US and its military. Meaning, whatever were the causes of the individual aggression, the latter was legitimized by the perception that America is the "enemy." Investigation will show quickly if the motives are strictly personal or ideological, or a hybrid set of motives. All depends on the early investigation made available to the public. According to Retired Colonel Terry Lee, who was interviewed by Fox News and who knew Major Malik Nadal Hasan, the latter has made several statements indicating his ideological attitude such as: “The killing of the soldier in Arkansas and any attack against US military inside the homeland is legitimate because of American military involvement in the Middle East.” Terry detailed remarks made by the killer “against US policy and in support of potential suicide attacks inside the country.” Obviously, these statements by former Colonel Terry needs to be analyzed and verified.

While waiting for these investigations to be released, analytical projection based on the historical context, on the specific circumstances of engagement between the Jihadist propaganda and the United States for the past eight years and the type of attack involving an individual in the military leaves us –at this point- with the projection that the ideological factor is part of the motives leading to the shooting. Psychological factors are to be looked at seriously but the ideological component –legitimacy of attacking US military- needs also to be investigated: For the latter element was the alibi fueling the psychological factor, if indeed that was the case.

Although I would place this attack within a wider context involving the evolution of what we call homegrown radicalization, I would recommend waiting for at least the early findings of investigators. This is where the judicial investigation and expert analysis may depart for a little while until more information is made available and correct the analytical projections. Meanwhile, if indeed it has any link to ideology or its derivatives, it will then be the single largest Terror attack in America (regardless of its homegrown origin or not, of the psychological reason or not) since 9/11.

In that case, what the world has seen and is eager to learn about cannot be described just as “horrific outburst of violence” performed on American military, rather is part of an ideological war, generated by radicalization, and inciting individuals to perform such acts. Lone wolf or not, organized or not, fully self aware perpetrator or not, influenced by overseas or not, this massacre of servicemen has moved America from stage to another.

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Dr Walid Phares is the Director of the Future Terrorism at the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies and author of Future Jihad: Terrorist Strategies against America.

I have put down some thoughts over on the company blog - as well as some data on the Earth Liberation Front. However, the subject of how global terrorism and localized insurgencies will adapt, disappear or be created by Climate Change has yet to be fully explored.

Before making major decisions on whether to escalate the war by adding 20-40,000 more G.I.s to the fight, President Obama and his war council ought to read every word of the common sense arguments made by Gant (at left in eastern Afghanistan disguised as a Pashtun warrior).

Laid out in 50 pages of plain English that won’t give you a headache, Gant’s proposal hinges on the idea that it’s not important how many troops are deployed - it’s how you use them.

The Silver Star recipient's strategy shows the kind of street smarts desperately needed in the White House brainstorming sessions.

Gant's advice? Field American “tribal engagement teams” to live with - and fight alongside - Pashtun tribesmen, who dominate southern and eastern Afghanistan and have little faith in, or loyalty to, the government in Kabul. Their centuries-old tribal code of honor, justice and revenge, called Pashtunwali, is the only system of governance they need - and it can help us defeat the Taliban.

“Nothing else will work,” is Gant’s blunt bottom line.

The White House has yet to give the Special Forces officer a call. But we learned at the New York Daily News that top Pentagon brass are intrigued enough by this once obscure quiet warrior to give his big ideas a shot.

They have nothing to lose but a war.

U.S. and NATO commanders have never bought into tribal integration, much less the hardly-crazy concept that Gant envisions: handpicked Special Forces operators willing to live for years in one spot on the map and who become part of a local tribe as much as any outsider could hope for. Pashtun elders are often frustrated by the American faces that change every year.

“I will get on a helicopter tonight, armed with an AK-47 and 300 rounds of ammunition and put my life on the line and my strategy to the test - will you do the same?” Gant boldly challenges.

Please read my full post on the Daily News' Mouth of the Potomac Blog.

The lead article discusses the October 13th indictment of Somali-American, Abbow Munye Abdow, and the application of "false statement" charges in terrorism cases.

The second article is a comprehensive backgrounder on al-Shabaab and the history of the Islamist groups in Somalia.

The third article, titled "Al-Shabaab Recruiting in the West," takes a comprehensive look at what we know about the group's efforts to recruit fighters in the United States, and in other Western countries.

The final article concerns the efficacy of the Somali president's recent diplomatic efforts in Minneapolis, Columbus, OH, and Chicago.

Future issues of CTR Vantage will cover aspects of the Black Nationalist/Islamist movement in the U.S., lessons learned from the terror plots of 2009. CTR Vantage will be published every two to three weeks.

CTR Vantage is co-written and co-edited by Daveed Gartenstein-Ross (also a CT Blog contributor) and Madeleine Gruen, with contributions from the staff of the Center for Terrorism Research at the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies.

You may view the current issue of CTR Vantage by clicking here.

Additionally, the NEFA Foundation has also obtained an English transcript of a recent audio recording by Shaykh Ibrahim al-Rubeish titled, “Why Mohammed Bin Nayif?”. During the audio, produced by Al-Qaida’s network in the Arabian Peninsula (Yemen), al-Rubeish lays out the justification for Al-Qaida’s attempted August 2009 assassination of Saudi Interior Minister Prince Mohammed bin Nayif via a suicide bomber dispatched from neighboring Yemen. According to al-Rubeish, the bomber responsible for the attack—Saudi national Abdullah Aseri (a.k.a. “Abul Khair”) “sought by his actions to say to Mohammed bin Nayif: the time has come for you to drink from the same cup which you gave to our brothers. Here we are, we will spill your blood as you spilled ours, terrorize you as you terrorized the believers and demolish your home as you demolished those of others. You will be dealt with as you deal with others, and you will be given something similar to your own actions.”

Both English transcripts are now available on the NEFA Foundation website.

It is an important piece because it highlights a much broader reality that we have been slow to come to grips with. In almost any index of failed states, North Korea ranks fairly high. But in reality it is not a failed state at all. It retains the capacity to efficiently extract what it (the state) needs for survival. It may not provide basic necessities such as fuel, food, clothing, education, medical service or sewage, but it is efficient at what it sets out to do. And this economic extractive capacity is the key to perpetrating the regimes in power.

The primary danger of these criminal-extractive states (such as Liberia under Charles Taylor, Zimbabwe under Mugabe, Equatorial Guinea under the Obiang clan) is that they offer criminal and terrorist organizations ideal circumstances in which to operate. In fact, these overlapping networks are essential to the survival of the state as criminal syndicate.

Because these states rely on criminal networks for their economic survival (North Korea on counterfeit currency, illicit nuclear technology sales etc.; Charles Taylor on blood diamonds), and terrorist organizations increasingly rely on criminal organizations and activities for funding and facilitation, these states become host organisms to criminal and terrorist parasites.

In fact, these criminal states rely on criminal/terrorist networks to provide the illicit funds that make them viable. My full blog is here.

An English translation of the Shabaab communique can be accessed via the NEFA Foundation website.

A copy of the interview with Shaykh Niyazi can be accessed via the NEFA Foundation website.

In July 2009, a North Carolina grand jury indicted seven U.S. citizens and one legal permanent resident, charging the men with providing material support to terrorists and conspiracy to murder persons abroad. A September 2009 superseding indictment charged two of the men with the Quantico plot, alleging they shifted their focus to a domestic target after the group’s plans to wage jihad overseas were unsuccessful. In furtherance of the plot, the alleged leader of the conspiracy, Daniel Boyd, conducted reconnaissance on the Marine base and possessed weapons intended for the attack. During their search of Boyd’s house, authorities seized 26 weapons and more than 27,000 rounds of ammunition. Boyd, whose two sons were charged in the material support indictment, claims to have trained and fought in Afghanistan in the early 90’s and also led a small group practicing military tactics and the use of weapons on private property in N.C. in July 2009. In addition to radicalizing his two sons, Boyd also allegedly played a key role in the recruitment of others in the network. As David S. Kris, Assistant Attorney General for National Security, remarked: "This case underscores the potential threat that U.S. citizens with foreign fighter experience pose upon returning to the United States, specifically in terms of inciting other U.S.-based individuals to follow their example. They return from conflict zones with combat experience, a network of contacts overseas and strong credibility with…recruits seeking an authority figure.” Notably, Daniel Boyd’s father was a U.S. Marine Corps Captain decorated with 4 Purple Hearts, his brother reportedly “works for the Pentagon,” and his truck was adorned with a “Support our Troops” bumper sticker.

This PowerPoint report includes numerous government photographs of weapons, ammunition, and other items seized by the FBI during the search of Boyd’s house and excerpts from the Facebook pages of certain conspirators. Accompanying the report, the NEFA Foundation is releasing a revealing FBI summary of an interview with Daniel Boyd’s son Dylan, which provides further insight into the network.

The NEFA powerpoint and FBI interview summary can be accessed via the NEFA Foundation website.

Instead, it appears that Palestine is employed as a useful lightening rod through which al-Qa`ida can tap into the emotional attachment of Muslims and Arabs worldwide. The place of Palestine and Israel in al-Qa`ida’s speeches and operations is shaped by its need to construct narratives, often focused on specific populations and conflicts, that support its radical and violent agenda. To do this, it must place conflicts throughout the world that involve Muslims into a singular, radical narrative in which Islam in general and Muslims in particular must defend themselves from Western aggression. For al-Qa`ida, the Palestinian cause is a paradigmatic example of this phenomenon. Since the Israel-Palestine conflict is perhaps the single most animating regional conflict for many Arabs and Muslims, its resonanceprovides al-Qa`ida with a powerful rhetorical tool for radicalization, recruitment, and fundraising.

In an article that appears in the latest volume of CTC Sentinel, the online journal of the Combating Terrorism Center at West Point (where I am an associate fellow), I demonstrate that while al-Qa`ida has always been interested in the Palestinian issue there is a remarkable gap between al-Qa`ida’s rhetoric and its operations targeting Israel. Those few attacks that al-Qa`ida has conducted against Israeli and Jewish targets have been small-scale and half-hearted.

The full article is available here.

The video posted on jihadi websites stars Al Qaeda cleric Abu Yahya al-Libi delivering a sermon for the Muslim holiday Eid, which recently ended. It is a typical al-Libi (“The Libyan”) Armageddon-laced sermon, in which he blasts President Obama as a “black crow” unworthy of the accolades heaped upon him.

“Can a human please Obama and please Allah the Great and Almighty?” al-Libi asks.

The video is sure to receive careful analysis at CIA headquarters given the visuals and al-Libi's woodsy environment, which includes singing cicadas.

He is videotaped outdoors speaking before an audience including an intentionally blurred-out figure who bears a striking resemblance to Osama Bin Laden, though “his identity cannot be confirmed,” the SITE Intelligence Group concluded.

“If this is Osama Bin Laden, it would be the first time video of him has been released since 2007 and then before that 2004,” a statement by another private terrorism research group, IntelCenter, said.

U.S. intelligence officials are highly skeptical Bin Laden attended al-Libi’s sermon.

Please see my full post on the New York Daily News' Mouth of the Potomac Blog.