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About Contact Us CT Blog Experts in the Media CT Library Counterterrorism Foundation Websites & Centers RSS & PDA Feeds Monthly Archives POSTS ON ISRAEL-HAMAS WAR POSTS ON 2008 MUMBAI ATTACK Counterterrorism Blog Panels: Reforming U.S. Counter-Terrorism Assistance Programs, Feb. 12 The 2008 Mumbai Attacks, Dec. 4 Future of Turkey-U.S. Strategic Partnership, May 19 Iran & U.S.: Outlook for Next Decade? April 15 Compañeros de Armas ("Friends in Arms"): Chavez, FARC & South America, March 19 Meta-Terror: Terrorism & the Virtual World, Feb. 29 Evolution of US Counterterrorism Policy, Feb. 12 Terrorism Litigation After Boim Decision, Jan. 28 Holy Land Foundation & Muslim Brotherhood, Dec. 11, 2007 ------------ July 2008 Posts and August 2008 Posts Contributing Experts
Douglas Farah, Editor
Steven Emerson & The Investigative Project on Terrorism Dennis Lormel Bill West Evan Kohlmann Michael Cutler Victor Comras Michael Kraft Dr. Zachary Abuza Dr. Walid Phares Daveed Gartenstein-Ross Olivier Guitta Kenneth Conboy Aaron Mannes David Schenker Animesh Roul Matthew Levitt Jonathan Winer Michael Jacobson Frank Hyland Roderick Jones Paul Cruickshank Farhana Ali Lorenzo Vidino Madeleine Gruen James McGinnis Michael Braun James Gordon Meek, Guest Expert Phillip Smyth, Brett Wallace & Mark Offenbach, Newslinks Editors Andrew Cochran, Founder & Editor Emeritus EXPERTS' ARCHIVES & BIOS Recent Posts
Al-Qaida's Mustafa Abu al-Yazid Blames Blackwater for Peshawar Bombings
Conflict & Computer Science NEFA Foundation: Interview with Spokesman for Pakistani Al-Qaida CTR Vantage: The Shooting of Luqman Abdullah Radical U.S. Muslim Group Defames Moderate, Defends Fort Hood Attack A Yardstick to How Radical Anwar Al-Awlaki is: Former Bin Laden Mentor Condemns Ft. Hood Massacre as "Irrational" and "Unjustified" When a Warrant Isn't Warranted Syria Undermining UNSCR 1701 Slows Rapprochement with Washington ForeignPolicy.com: A Web of Lone Wolves (Ft. Hood) Disrupting Iran's Weapons Smuggling Experts' Books
Walid Phares: The Confrontation and "The War of Ideas: Jihadism against Democracy" and “Future Jihad: Terrorist Strategies Against America”
Michael Kraft & Yonah Alexander (Editors): "Evolution of U.S. Counterterrorism Policy" Douglas Farah & Zachary Abuza in Countering the Financing of Terrorism Douglas Farah: "Merchant of Death" and "Blood From Stones: The Secret Financial Network of Terror" Michael Jacobson: "The West at War: U.S. and European Counterterrorism Efforts, Post–September 11" Daveed Gartenstein-Ross: "My Year Inside Radical Islam: A Memoir" Steven Emerson: "Jihad Incorporated: A Guide to Militant Islam in the US" and "American Jihad: The Terrorists Living Among Us" Victor Comras & Matthew Levitt (contributors): "Terrorism Financing and State Responses," Stanford University Press Matthew Levitt: "Negotiating Under Fire: Preserving Peace Talks in the Face of Terror Attacks" and "Hamas: Politics, Charity, and Terrorism in the Service of Jihad" and "Targeting Terror: U.S. Policy toward Middle Eastern State Sponsors and Terrorist Organizations, Post-September 11" Zachary Abuza: "Political Islam and Violence in Indonesia" and "Militant Islam in Southeast Asia: Crucible of Terror" Lorenzo Vidino "Al Qaeda in Europe: The New Battleground of Global Jihad" Kenneth Conboy: "The Second Front: Inside Asia’s Most Dangerous Terrorist Network" Evan Kohlmann: "Al-Qaida's Jihad in Europe: The Afghan-Bosnian Network" Credits
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Aaron Mannes Archives
Quetta Front & the Baluchi FactorBy Aaron MannesAs fighting in Afghanistan, particularly the south, intensifies U.S. policy-makers are beginning to shift their gaze to Afghanistan’s southern border with Pakistan and wondering if the northern regions of Baluchistan are – like the FATA on Afghanistan’s eastern border –... Safe for Now - Assessing Recent Terror PlotsBy Aaron MannesWithin the past week law enforcement has revealed the disruption of three separate terrorist plots against the United States. These actions highlight the continuing threat to the continental United States, but also the barriers discussed here before to conducting successful... Why Hamas has been Quiet in 2009By Aaron MannesThe Jewish Policy Center's Palestinian Rocket Report has just published an article I wrote with my boss about why Hamas has kept the cease-fire since Operation Cast Lead. In it we to apply some of our work modeling terrorist group... Assessing Counter-Terror Since 9/11By Aaron MannesAmong analysts, wonks, policy-makers, and pundits the question on the eighth anniversary on 9/11 is “Where are we?” To some extent, one’s answer to that question (like much else) is shaped by where one sits – politically, geographically, and occupationally.... Hezbollah Financial Scandal: From Mughniyeh to MadoffBy Aaron MannesSalah Ezzedine, a leading Lebanese businessman, turned himself in to Lebanese authorities last week when his large-scale Ponzi scheme collapsed and he declared bankruptcy. This is could be a major blow to Hezbollah, which has already had a very bad... Cyberwar RealitiesBy Aaron MannesThis morning, The Washington Times ran an op-ed on cyberwar I co-wrote with my friend (and former boss) Jim Hendler. Much has been written about cyber-war, but very little of it is grounded in reality. Many over-hype the issue while... Mind the Gap: Reinstituting Counternarcotics Cooperation with VenezuelaBy Aaron MannesThe GAO’s recent report U.S. Counternarcotics Cooperation with Venezuela Has Declined provides a nuts and bolts breakdown of how U.S. counternarcotics programs operate abroad – and how the Venezuelan government is refusing to cooperate on many of these crucial programs.... Can Hezbollah Launch Long-Range Terror Attacks?By Aaron MannesIn his new book Homeland Security, Assessing the First Five Years, former DHS secretary Michael Chertoff argues:Al-Qaeda and its network are our most serious immediate threat, they may not be our most serious long-term threat….[Hezbollah] has developed capabilities that Al-Qaeda... Strategic Importance of a Peshawar HotelBy Aaron MannesThe attack on the Pearl Continental Hotel in Peshawar was a major attack that will have important implications for the counter-insurgency in Pakistan. This is an issue that could have a ripple effect felt worldwide. Strategic Guests Hotels can be... Coffee & Counter-Insurgency: Analyzing the anti-Starbucks JihadBy Aaron MannesThe invaluable Middle East Media Research Institute recently posted a video from al-Nas TV in Egypt. A cleric named Safwat Higazi calls for a boycott against Starbucks because the Starbucks logo is Queen Esther (the heroine of Purim, a Jewish... Implementation Matters: Bureaucracies@WarBy Aaron MannesA Washington Post article on SecDef Gates’ efforts to orient the Pentagon to addressing critical needs in Iraq and Afghanistan is a fascinating depiction of the nuts and bolts of bureaucratic politics. While historians and journalists, for obvious reasons, often... Pakistan Fissures II: Ethnic CleavagesBy Aaron MannesIn the Washington Post yesterday Selig Harrison, wrote an op-ed arguing that the Punjabi-Pashtun ethnic conflict underpins the rise of the Taliban. The Punjab is Pakistan’s most powerful province. Home to about half of the country’s population, the Punjab dominates... Pakistan Fissures I: Hating the Manor-BornBy Aaron MannesThe New York Times published a very important article that explained how the Taliban used class divides to take control of the Swat Valley. The lion’s share of the coverage of Pakistan seems to focus on the increasing sway of... New Af-Pak Strategy: More Effort on Pakistan NeededBy Aaron MannesPresident Obama announced his new Pakistan-Afghanistan strategy today. Except for advocates of a strict counter-terror strategy in Afghanistan (as opposed to the administration’s plans for a counter-insurgency strategy that includes a healthy dose of nation-building), there is little to disagree... Remembering the Tokyo Subway AttacksBy Aaron MannesA few years ago I wrote a short post about it on my old blog, which I re-post below. (The old blog is now defunct, but I am slowly posting it into The TerrorWonk.) At the time, this was seen... Kashmir Peace: Another Mumbai Casualty?By Aaron Mannes"It is too early to say." Zhou Enlai's response when asked for his assessment of the 1789 French Revolution In the last week’s issue of the New Yorker Steve Coll reported that in 2007 India and Pakistan where, through diplomatic... Higher Education and Democracy in Iraq: Book ReviewBy Aaron MannesThe latest issue of Policy Review just published my review of John Agresto's Mugged by Reality: The Liberation of Iraq. Agresto, a former President of St. John's College and chair of the National Endowment for the Humanities served as the... Modeling Terrorist Group Behavior: Hamas & HezbollahBy Aaron MannesIn my day job at the University of Maryland’s Laboratory for Computational Cultural Dynamics I work with a team of computer scientists and socials scientists to build models of terrorist group behavior. As the in-house TerrorWonk my role is to... Continuing Strategic Ripples of Mumbai AttacksBy Aaron MannesIndian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh’s address to the chief minister’s Conference on Internal Security earlier this week was primarily focused on the nuts and bolts of internal security. But it also harshly criticized Pakistan, stating “there is enough evidence to... Managing GazaBy Aaron MannesIsrael’s operation in Gaza is reaching a critical point. While talking heads will debate grand strategy, the options are limited. Behind the headlines is the crucial issue of how Israel’s national security process works (or doesn’t - in light of... Mumbai Style Attack in the US: A Skeptical AnalysisBy Aaron MannesThe Mumbai massacre may not be a “new” terror tactic. The mass firearms attack riveted the world in 1972 when the Japanese Red Army gunned down 27 people at Ben Gurion Airport. Since then the annals of terrorism have included... Mumbai Whodunnit: Names vs. NetworksBy Aaron MannesFollowing the tenets of Journalism 101, the first question about the Mumbai attacks was “who?” Most of the speculation has focused on Lashkar-e-Toiba (LeT), although their spokesperson and the spokesperson of their political wing (reported by CTBlog’s Evan Kohlmann)... Mobile OpportunitiesBy Aaron MannesLast week, Andy Cochran, wisely urged the incoming administration to develop the legal and institutional capabilities needed to deal with mobile banking. There is no question that terrorists and criminals will demonstrate tremendous creativity in stealing from mobile banking or... Islamabad Bombing I: Brute Force TacticsBy Aaron MannesIn the span of week, there were two attacks against hard targets, the September 17 attack on the U.S. Embassy in Yemen, and Saturday’s strike on the Marriott Hotel in Islamabad. Al-Qaeda and its affiliates still face difficulties launching attacks... Fire as a Tool of TerrorBy Aaron MannesCo-blogger Daveed Gartenstein-Ross and Kyle Dabruzzi recently co-authored an interesting report on how firefighters can play an enhanced counter-terror role. His report reminded me of some preliminary research I had done on terrorist use of fire in the wake of... Madrassas Extending into Pakistani HeartlandsBy Aaron MannesThis short analysis from the invaluable Middle East Media Research Institute is well worth a read. It discusses the controversy Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) leader, Asif Zardari set off when, while delivering the keynote address at the 23rd Internationalist Socialist... Force vs. FARC: Israel's ContributionBy Aaron MannesOn being rescued, Ingrid Betancourt stated: "This is a miracle, a miracle. We have an amazing military. I think only the Israelis can possibly pull off something like this." Her comment set off immediate speculation that there had been an... Questions About the Rescue in ColombiaBy Aaron MannesThe dramatic rescue of the FARC hostages raises a host of important questions, here are a few, with short answers following and lengthy answers below: Was the rescue the cover for an arrangement with the FARC? Probably not. What effect... FARC is FARC'd: Assessing the Hostage RescueBy Aaron MannesThe first reports about the Colombian military’s rescue of the 15 hostages held by FARC (in Spanish) indicate an impressive intelligence operation. The hostages were held in three separate locations. Colombian intelligence had infiltrated one of the FARC fronts holding... FARC's Top Military Commander Ailing?By Aaron MannesThe Colombian daily El Tiempo reports that Mono Jojoy, the top FARC military commander has a severe form of diabetes. (A picture from El Tiempo is posted below.) Head of the “Eastern Bloc” Mono Jojoy is generally believed to be... Statistical Analysis of Decapitation as a Counter-Terror StrategyBy Aaron MannesThe most recent edition of The Journal of International Policy Solutions published a statistical analysis I wrote on the efficacy of killing or capturing the top leaders of a terrorist organizations. Entitled "Testing The Snake Head Strategy: Does Killing or... Feared FARC Commander SurrendersBy Aaron MannesAnother FARC commander has surrendered to Colombian authorities. Nelly Avila Moreno, aka Karina, turned herself in (along with her daughter andher partner, known as Michin.) Karina was commander of the 47th Front. (She was also one of the top-ranked women... FARC Eats it OwnBy Aaron MannesReporting on Interpol’s assertion that the files on the captured FARC computers are authentic has focused on potential Chavez-FARC ties. But another bit of FARC news should be noted. Six of FARC commander Mono Jojoy’s bodyguards had plotted kill him,... About Bout & the DEABy Aaron MannesThe recently unsealed indictment of arms-trafficker extraordinaire Victor Bout is an interesting read. Perhaps the most notable line is on page 10, when Bout told the DEA operatives (who he believed represented the FARC) that America was also his enemy... Remembering the Beirut Embassy Bombing: April 18, 1983By Aaron MannesTwenty-five years ago today a late model GMC truck packed with explosives slammed into the U.S. Embassy in Beirut and crashing through the lobby door. In his memoir See No Evil former CIA operative Robert Baer, who devoted much of... DU Dud: The Silver Lining to FARC’s UraniumBy Aaron MannesColombian police have found 30 kilos (65 lbs.) of depleted uranium (DU). DU is what is left over after natural uranium is enriched. It is less radioactive than natural uranium and consequently useless for building dirty bombs (let alone nuclear... Venezuela & The Terror Supporters List: Pros & ConsBy Aaron MannesAn anonymous State Department source told the Miami Herald that they are exploring the possibility of placing Venezuela on the list of state sponsors of terrorism for their relationship with the FARC - as revealed in the laptops captured from... Rios Killed by his own Men & Other UpdatesBy Aaron MannesThe story behind the killing of FARC leader Ivan Rios has become more interesting - and even more indicative that the FARC is on the verge of collapes. Colombia's Defense Minister now states that Rios was killed by his unit's... Another FARC Leader KilledBy Aaron MannesNews from Colombia keeps coming. This afternoon Colombian security killed Ivan Rios, another member of the FARC Estado Mayor Central (Central High Command.) This is the body that governs the organization. Raul Reyes, one of its members was killed last... Assessing the Jerusalem AttackBy Aaron MannesThe attack on a religious school in Jerusalem yesterday was the first major terror attack in that city since April 2006. There are several aspects of the attack that are worth noting. First it is a reminder that Palestinian terrorists... FARC Bait for BoutBy Aaron MannesAccording to the Drug Enforcement Agency’s press release, international arms-trafficker extraordinaire Victor Bout was arrested for plotting to sell weapons to the FARC - not knowing that the reputed FARC representatives were in fact working for the DEA. Only nine... Fighting FARC: On Strategy and Satellite PhonesBy Aaron MannesA “senior Colombian intelligence source” claimed that Colombia was able to pinpoint FARC chief Raul Reyes’ location because of a phone call made to his satellite phone by Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez. If true, this would have a certain irony... FARC Fallout: Assessing Dirty Bomb ClaimsBy Aaron MannesAmong the more explosive revelations from the laptops of the late FARC leader Raul Reyes is the allegation that the FARC was trafficking in radioactive materials and according to Colombia’s Vice President was planning to build a “dirty bomb.” A... Hugo's Overwrought Reaction to Reyes' KillingBy Aaron MannesNational Review Online ran my article Finding FARC on the fallout from Colombia's killing of FARC #2 Raul Reyes and Hugo Chavez's reaction. March 4, 2008 Finding FARC An important victory for Columbia sparks a major diplomatic spat. By Aaron... Death of Raul Reyes: FARC's ZawahiriBy Aaron MannesThe killing of FARC chief ideologue Raul Reyes will have important implications for the FARC and also for the region. Reyes, who’s birth name was Luis Edgar Devia Silva, was the FARC’s chief ideologue and voice to the outside world.... After Mughniyah: Will Hezbollah Retaliate?By Aaron MannesLong-time Hezbollah operations director Imad Mughniyah has been a seminal figure in the evolution of modern terrorism. He has links to Arafat and bin Laden, and is believed to have masterminded suicide vehicle bombings in Beirut, Argentina, and Saudi Arabia.... Facebook vs. FARCBy Aaron MannesThe massive rallies against the FARC earlier this week (between 500,000 and two million people rallied in Bogota, along with parallel rallies worldwide) were a watershed in many ways. It was an indication of how low the FARC's standing... SOTU: Shout Out for ColombiaBy Aaron MannesIn his final State of the Union address, President Bush specifically called on Congress to pass the Free Trade Agreement with Colombia:These agreements also promote America's strategic interests. The first agreement that will come before you is with Colombia, a... FARC chief calls for a General Offensive in 2008By Aaron MannesWhen OBL or his sidekick Ayman Zawahiri sneeze the world media leaps to broadcast it. Yet, a long-standing terrorist chief with a world spanning network calls for a "General Offensive" and it barely makes the wire services. FARC chief, Manuel... Geopolitics of GazaBy Aaron MannesIn the coverage of the breach of the Gaza border, the focus has been on the increased threat to Israel. While there is little question that terrorists will acquire new capabilities and use them against Israel, their gaze may turn... Pakistan & A Bomb Too FarBy Aaron MannesLess than a week before the assassination of former Pakistani Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto, there had been another bloody assassination attempt in Pakistan - both could represent turning points in Pakistan’s ongoing struggle with Islamist violence. In northwest Pakistan a... Bhutto's Assassinaton Needs a Real InvestigationBy Aaron MannesFacts about Benazir Bhutto's assassination are in short supply. Unfortunately that is unlikely to change. There is a long tradition of failure to investigate political murders in Pakistan. This cannot continue if Pakistan is to become a stable democratic state... Ghosts of Iranian Terror Past & FutureBy Aaron MannesLast week I posted about the AMIA bombing and what it tells us about the Iranian regime. I write often about AMIA because it is the starkest example of Iranian international terror. Iran and Hezbollah reached around the world and... AMIA & the NIEBy Aaron MannesThe NIE on Iran’s nuclear weapons program has sparked an ongoing controversy about the nature of the Iranian regime and its intentions. While the Iranian regime appears to have halted their nuclear weaponization program in 2003, they continue to research... Darkness on Referendum Eve in CaracasBy Aaron MannesLost in the good news that the Venezuelan people rejected President Hugo Chavez’s constitutional referendum is the story that federal police raided the main Jewish social club in Caracas the night before the polls opened for the referendum. This should... Concerns about Mobile Phone SmugglingBy Aaron MannesSince Slate was kind enough to cite my thoughts on Syria’s attendance at the Annapolis Conference in its daily feature Today’s Blogs I thought I might return the favor. Yesterday Slate’s Hot Document section published a PowerPoint briefing given by... Annapolis Conference & Syria's TruthBy Aaron MannesIf Syria switched teams, from its current alignment with Iran to the U.S. aligned Arab states led by Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, and the Gulf states, it would be a diplomatic masterstroke. It would isolate Iran and cut loose its... Video Games: Crucial Front in the War of IdeasBy Aaron MannesToday's New York Sun has an op-ed I co-authored with my boss, University of Maryland Institute for Advanced Computer Studies director, V.S. Subrahmanian on incorporating video games into the war of ideas against Islamist extremism. Gaming: Tactical Advantage BY AARON... Justice for AMIA: Interpol & Argentina vs. IranBy Aaron MannesThere is a country and an international organization willing to stand up to the Iranian. Earlier this week Interpol voted overwhelmingly (74-14 with 26 abstentions) to issue a red letter calling for the arrest of five Iranians accused by the... Whodunnit from Hell: The Attack on Benazir BhuttoBy Aaron MannesThis morning National Review Online ran my article on the suicide bombing attack on Benazir Bhutto. October 23, 2007, 9:50 a.m. The Bhutto Attacks Cold comfort is the best we can hope for. By Aaron Mannes The question of who... Pakistani Pressure-CookerBy Aaron MannesAssuming Pakistani police reports are accurate (a big if) that the attack on returning former Pakistani premier Benazir Bhutto's convoy was not a car-bomb but a suicide bomber, it would be the deadliest attack by an individual suicide vest so... Pakistani sieveBy Aaron MannesOne of the helicopters escorting Pakistan’s President Pervez Musharraf crashed Monday, a brigadier and three others were killed. There is no evidence of terrorist activity. It was a technical problem. Nonetheless, the crash highlights one of the most serious concerns... The End of Force 17?By Aaron MannesReportedly Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas is disbanding Force 17 as part of a re-org on Palestinian security forces. As Arafat’s elite Presidential Guard Force 17 has played a crucial role in the development of modern terrorism. Although Force 17’s disappearance... Pointless Proposal: EU Seeks to Ban Access to Bomb-Making Instructions OnlineBy Aaron MannesThe EU is considering a proposal that would ban websites that post instructions on bomb-making. The proposal is interesting because it does not appear to focus on criminalizing the websites. Instead it puts the burden on Internet Service Providers (ISPs)... CAIR's Legal Gambit (and another Graph)By Aaron MannesThe move by CAIR and several other prominent Muslim organizations to have themselves de-listed as un-indicted co-conspirators in the Holy Land Foundation trials is an interesting, albeit unprecedented, legal maneuver that – if successful – would have a profound impact... Dawood Ibrahim in the Dock?By Aaron MannesThe always turning rumor mill on the Indian-subcontinent is rotating at top speed with tales of the arrest of Dawood Ibrahim and his top deputies Tiger Memon and Chota Shakeel, all presumably residing in Pakistan and wanted by India for... Libyan Hostage Taking: Past, Present & FutureBy Aaron MannesSaif al-Islam al-Qadhafi, Muammar’s best-known son and likely heir, recently spoke with Newsweek International about, among other things, the recent release of five Bulgarian nurses and a Palestinian doctor who were convicted in a Libyan court of infecting hundreds of... CAIR & Hamas: Implications and an IllustrationBy Aaron MannesAllow me to add a few notes (and a graph) to the many excellent previous posts on Hamas, CAIR, and the Muslim Brotherhood in the United States. It cannot be re-iterated too often that CAIR is a Hamas spin-off. This... Storms in PakistanBy Aaron MannesAlthough Pakistani officials are denying it, apparently shots were fired at Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf’s plane from the roof of a house in Rawalpindi. Rawalpindi is the headquarters for Pakistan’s army! At the core of the frequently disturbing news from Pakistan is the reality that the government’s writ does not seem to extend over substantial parts of the country. Pakistan’s tribal areas (which in fairness have been resisting far-off governments for centuries) were problematic enough. But the Red Mosque siege indicates that the government does not even control its own capital city. That a large campus – with over a thousand residents – is incubating radical Islamists minutes from the Supreme Court is nerve-wracking (particularly in light of Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal.) This has led the United States and other nations to view Musharraf as the indispensable man, holding back the tide of radical Islam in Pakistan. Whatever Musharraf’s virtues or faults, it is essential that policy look beyond him. Pakistan was founded as a secular state for India’s Muslims. Islamist parties have received only small percentages of votes in national elections. Only a decade ago a secular, civilian (albeit corrupt) political party governed Pakistan. The rise of radical Islam has, in great part been fueled by the economic and social stagnation of military rule. Parts of the military have also supported radical Islamist groups, both to counter civilian political parties and as proxies in fighting India in Kashmir and extending Pakistani influence in Afghanistan. There are important parallels with Egypt, where the primary source of the current regime’s legitimacy is that Mubarak is not an Islamist. Pakistan’s military government appears to be headed down that path, but the Pakistani Islamists are not as well organized or powerful as Egypt’s Muslim Brotherhood – and there is a powerful secular civilian alternative. To effectively stem the rise of radical Islam it is essential that the United States and the world help Pakistan develop civilian institutions and return to civilian rule - not to place our faith in the fate of a single leader. As it happens, Musharraf was flying to Turbat, Baluchistan to see the damage done by recent floods. National Review Online ran my article (also see below) urging the U.S. to provide aid in the wake of this flooding, first for humanitarian reasons, but also as an opportunity to better engage with the Pakistani government. July 6, 2007 Pakistan Needs U And We Need Pakistan Aaron Mannes Hopefully the United States is preparing a massive relief package for Pakistan’s coastal regions, which have been hard hit by flooding caused by a cyclone and heavy monsoon rains since June 23. In addition to the humanitarian importance of this mission, aiding Pakistan’s response to the flooding could have some positive implications for the U.S.-Pakistani relationship. Threats to the InternetBy Aaron MannesIn today's edition of the Wall Street Journal Europe Jim Hendler (a computer science professor at RPI) and I discuss the implications of the recent cyber-attacks against Estonia. These attacks (along with a massive attack in February against the name... Lax @ LAXBy Aaron MannesWaiting for a shuttlebus at LAX (Los Angeles International Airport) a few days ago, I noticed an abandoned bag. It was an odd place to leave a bag for a few minutes. When I alerted the nearest airport employee –... Crime & Terror: The ID ThreatBy Aaron MannesA few short belated (and unsolicited but positive) observations on co-blogger Daveed Gartenstein-Ross and Kyle Dabruzzi's paper The Convergence of Crime and Terror. Broadly speaking we are seeing criminal organizations adopt flatter more networked structures. This is tough for law... Criticize Plan Colombia, but don't Forget FARCBy Aaron MannesLast week Colombia's President Alvaro Uribe visited Washington to meet congressional leaders and push for a free trade agreement. Prior to the 2006 elections this would have been (to abuse the now oft-quoted phrase) a "slam dunk." Uribe has been... Sympathy for the Spy-Masters: MI-5's Mission ImpossibleBy Aaron MannesSince the revelation that MI-5 had encountered Mohammed Siddique Khan, the leader of the cell that carried out the July 7, 2005 London subway bombings, but had not continued to track him, Britain's domestic intelligence agency has been subject to... House bill introduced to require State & Treasury cooperation on Countering Terrorism FinancingBy Aaron MannesThree members of the House Financial Services Committee, including Chairman Barney Frank, introduced a bill to improve coordination between the major players in counterterrorism financing, particularly Treasury and State. The bill (click here for the full-text) essentially requires the departments... U.S. House Hearings on Plan ColombiaBy Aaron MannesThis afternoon the House Foreign Affairs Subcommittee on the Western Hemisphere will hold hearings on “U.S. Colombia Relations.” For some time Plan Colombia, the multi-billion dollar U.S. aid package to Colombia to aid its fight against narco-terrorists, was seen as... Virginia Tech Tragedy: Human Nature & NetworksBy Aaron MannesWhile the Virginia Tech tragedy has spawned the predictable media frenzy, there has – so far – been an admirable lack of speculation about the killer, his motives, or what this event says about American society. Leftist philosopher Herbert Marcuse... Attacks in Baghdad: Undermining the Concept of IraqBy Aaron MannesIn the Arab world, according to the eminent Bernard Lewis, the nation-state is faced with pressures from above and below. From below tribal, sectarian, and ethnic loyalties frequently trump national allegiances. From above, grand causes, pan-Arabism for much of the... Iran: Targeting the U.S.-U.K. AllianceBy Aaron MannesAccording to U.S. officials, the Iranian forces that seized the British sailors earlier today were Revolutionary Guards, also known as Pasdaran. This is a significant distinction. The Pasdaran is a military force that is independent of Iran’s regular military. The... LTTE & al-Qaeda: An AssessmentBy Aaron MannesSri Lanka's Daily News reports that the LTTE has stolen Norwegian passports and sold them to al-Qaeda affiliates. This is not implausible. Rohan Gunaratna (currently head of the International Centre for Political Violence and Terrorism Research in Singapore) wrote in... No Rescue in ColombiaBy Aaron MannesLast Saturday night (with President Bush landing in Colombia the next day) the U.S. Embassy in Bogota confirmed that U.S. and Colombian soldiers had engaged in a joint operation seeking to rescue three U.S. military contractors who have been held... Cost of Doing Business: Chiquita in ColombiaBy Aaron MannesThe recent report that Chiquita Brands International has been fined $25 million for paying $1.7 million to the United Self-Defense Forces of Colombia (known by its Spanish acronym AUC) certainly raises the specter of giant American corporations in collaborating with... Compare & Contrast: Taliban and Tamil Tiger Attacks on U.S. OfficialsBy Aaron MannesThis week saw two terror attacks that apparently came close to high-level officials: the Taliban suicide bombing at Bagram Air Force Base while Vice President Cheney was staying there, and the Tamil Tiger (LTTE) mortar attack on an aircraft carrying... North Korea, Terrorism, and the NegotiationsBy Aaron MannesThis morning National Review Online ran my article on North Korea's long history of supporting terrorism and how that will play into negotiations over the new agreement. February 15, 2007, 6:00 a.m. The T Word The lifting of North Korea’s... A Plan Colombia for Afghanistan: Exporting Success?By Aaron MannesSpeaking in Bogotá a few weeks ago, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs General Peter Pace praised Colombia’s success at battling a drug fueled insurgency and cited it as a “good model” for Afghanistan. He wasn’t just praising his hosts; the... Lacto-Terrorism: FARC Bombs a DairyBy Aaron MannesLast week a FARC truck bomb carrying 660 lbs of explosives destroyed most of a dairy owned by the Swiss food multi-national Nestle in the southern state of Caqueta, one person was injured. Earlier in the week, also in Caqueta,... Lebanese Opportunity? Former Secretary-General Attacks HezbollahBy Aaron MannesThe invaluable Middle East Media Research Institute translated a fascinating interview with former Secretary-General of Hezbollah, Sheikh Subhi al-Tufeili. In the interview, al-Tufeili criticizes Hezbollah for kidnapping Israeli soldiers this summer and sparking a war that devastated Lebanon. He also... The President's Address: Counterinsurgency in Iraq/Countering IranBy Aaron MannesIn war movies (and occasionally in actual battles) last minute rallies carrying the day, just as things look most desperate, are a frequent plot device. This is roughly President Bush’s play with the troop surge he announced in his speech... Fostering Chaos: Iran, the Sunnis, and IraqBy Aaron MannesEli Lake, of the The New York Sun, reports that documents captured from Iranian operatives in Iraq indicate that Iran has been supporting Sunni jihadists in Iraq. There have been other hints of this support. Reports on the IEDs have... FARC AttackBy Aaron MannesOn Saturday, the FARC lured a unit of elite Colombian soldiers into an ambush near the town of La Julia. In a day of fighting, 14 soldiers were killed. In Colombia’s long war with the FARC, incidents like this are... Terror Tidings: The Blind Sheikh is Sick and Prince Turki FliesBy Aaron MannesNews of Sheikh Omar abd al-Rahman’s illness has raised concerns of an upcoming terror attack. While it has not been reported as such, Saudi Ambassador Prince Turki’s sudden resignation and return to Saudi Arabia is another – very different (and... Previewing Venezuela's ElectionsBy Aaron MannesNRO published my article, Watch Chavez Run previewing the Venezuelan elections this Sunday. It isn't strictly a terrorism issue, but Chavez has a growing alliance with Iran, has been providing FARC a safe haven, and has been a general source... Somalia and LebanonBy Aaron MannesAccording to a leaked UN Report to the Security Council the Iranian-Syrian-Hezbollah axis is making major inroads into Somalia and establishing an alliance with the Islamic Courts Union. The most sensational detail reported is that over 700 Somali militiamen joined... Hamas Operatives Charged with Targeting JordanBy Aaron MannesToday, Jordan’s military prosecutor charged three Hamas operatives with planning attacks against Jordanian intelligence officers and Israeli targets in Jordan. Fellow CTblogger David Schenker wrote a backgrounder when the plot was discovered in May that discusses its implications on Jordanian... The first American Crisis in the Middle EastBy Aaron MannesI was pleased to also contribute to the latest issue of the Journal of International Security Affairs, along with my co-CTbloggers Olivier Guitta (who wrote on trans-Atlantic relations) and Walid Phares (who wrote an excellent article entitled, "Future Terrorism: Mutant... AMIA BackgroundBy Aaron MannesI've also followed the AMIA bombing for some time. The Argentine request for Rafsanjani's arrest is an important symbolic step - although real justice will continue, unfortunately, to be delayed. Iran has a record of evading the consequences of supporting... Explosives found near US Embassy in VenezuelaBy Aaron MannesVenezuelan daily El Universal reports:The Baruta Municipality Police Corps Monday found two alleged explosive devices near the US Embassy in Valle Arriba, southeast Caracas. One of the presumed bombs was found in a box containing leaflets making reference to Lebanese... Border Security & VenezuelaBy Aaron MannesUS Representative Michael McCaul (TX - 10), Chairman of the Subcommittee for Investigations of the House Homeland Security Committee just released a major report A Line in the Sand: Confronting the Threat at the Southwest Border. Among other things, the... Cornered Tigers Pounce: Sri Lanka UpdateBy Aaron MannesIn its ongoing war with the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) the Sri Lankan military has suffered a devastating series of reversals in the past week. On October 11 they launched an offensive and lost a large scale battle... LTTE Arms Purchasing Ring Busted in BaltimoreBy Aaron MannesLast week the U.S. Attorney for Baltimore announced that two complaints and an indictment were unsealed charging six people with conspiring to purchase weapons for the LTTE. The lead agency in the operation was Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE). This... Hugo: Gunning for AfricaBy Aaron MannesI recently posted about the regional danger posed by the new Venezuelan license to produce Kalashnikov assault rifles. However, I underestimated the Venezuelan Colonel. I was worried about the region, but Venezuela's President has even wider ambitions. A leading Caracas... Col. Chavez: Send Money, Guns and DoctorsBy Aaron MannesWhen the outgoing Southcom chief General Bantz Craddock called Venezuela's President, Hugo Chavez, "bigger than a nuisance," he was vastly understating the problem. Chavez is a major overlooked danger on the international stage. He is by no means the most... Speak of the Devil: Chavez as Terror MasterBy Aaron MannesAlthough Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez has never had as large an audience as he did earlier this week at the UN, he regularly gives bizarre grandiose speeches with eschatological overtones. In August he gave an interview to al-Jazeera in which... Broader Implications of the Malegaon BombingBy Aaron MannesSo far information about the September 8 bombing in the Indian city of Malegaon, which killed at least 31 and injured several hundred, leads in few clear directions. However, the handling of the investigation and aftermath of the bombing could... |