If Musharraf Goes: Assessments and Opportunities

By Aaron Mannes

There are reports that Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf will be stepping down in the next few days in order to avoid impeachment. Musharraf has denied these reports, but the prominence of the rumors indicates strongly that the political balance of...

Pakistani Intelligence Sponsoring Terror

By Aaron Mannes

This morning, The New York Times has a front page story stating that U.S. intelligence has determined that Pakistan’s intelligence agency, Inter-Services Intelligence, aided the July 7, 2008 attack on the Indian Embassy in Kabul. The conclusion was “based on...

DEA as Counter-Terror Agency

By Aaron Mannes

The Drug Enforcement Agency (DEA) has, quietly, become a very effective counter-terror agency. The arrest of international arms dealers Victor Bout and Monzar al-Kasser (in operations worthy of movie scripts) were only one example. The agency had at least a...

Force vs. FARC: Israel's Contribution

By Aaron Mannes

On being rescued, Ingrid Betancourt stated: "This is a miracle, a miracle. We have an amazing military. I think only the Israelis can possibly pull off something like this." Her comment set off immediate speculation that there had been an...

Questions About the Rescue in Colombia

By Aaron Mannes

The dramatic rescue of the FARC hostages raises a host of important questions, here are a few, with short answers following and lengthy answers below: Was the rescue the cover for an arrangement with the FARC? Probably not. What effect...

FARC is FARC'd: Assessing the Hostage Rescue

By Aaron Mannes

The first reports about the Colombian military’s rescue of the 15 hostages held by FARC (in Spanish) indicate an impressive intelligence operation. The hostages were held in three separate locations. Colombian intelligence had infiltrated one of the FARC fronts holding...

FARC's Top Military Commander Ailing?

By Aaron Mannes

The Colombian daily El Tiempo reports that Mono Jojoy, the top FARC military commander has a severe form of diabetes. (A picture from El Tiempo is posted below.) Head of the “Eastern Bloc” Mono Jojoy is generally believed to be...

Statistical Analysis of Decapitation as a Counter-Terror Strategy

By Aaron Mannes

The most recent edition of The Journal of International Policy Solutions published a statistical analysis I wrote on the efficacy of killing or capturing the top leaders of a terrorist organizations. Entitled "Testing The Snake Head Strategy: Does Killing or...

Feared FARC Commander Surrenders

By Aaron Mannes

Another FARC commander has surrendered to Colombian authorities. Nelly Avila Moreno, aka Karina, turned herself in (along with her daughter andher partner, known as Michin.) Karina was commander of the 47th Front. (She was also one of the top-ranked women...

FARC Eats it Own

By Aaron Mannes

Reporting on Interpol’s assertion that the files on the captured FARC computers are authentic has focused on potential Chavez-FARC ties. But another bit of FARC news should be noted. Six of FARC commander Mono Jojoy’s bodyguards had plotted kill him,...

About Bout & the DEA

By Aaron Mannes

The recently unsealed indictment of arms-trafficker extraordinaire Victor Bout is an interesting read. Perhaps the most notable line is on page 10, when Bout told the DEA operatives (who he believed represented the FARC) that America was also his enemy...

Remembering the Beirut Embassy Bombing: April 18, 1983

By Aaron Mannes

Twenty-five years ago today a late model GMC truck packed with explosives slammed into the U.S. Embassy in Beirut and crashing through the lobby door. In his memoir See No Evil former CIA operative Robert Baer, who devoted much of...

DU Dud: The Silver Lining to FARC’s Uranium

By Aaron Mannes

Colombian police have found 30 kilos (65 lbs.) of depleted uranium (DU). DU is what is left over after natural uranium is enriched. It is less radioactive than natural uranium and consequently useless for building dirty bombs (let alone nuclear...

Venezuela & The Terror Supporters List: Pros & Cons

By Aaron Mannes

An anonymous State Department source told the Miami Herald that they are exploring the possibility of placing Venezuela on the list of state sponsors of terrorism for their relationship with the FARC - as revealed in the laptops captured from...

Rios Killed by his own Men & Other Updates

By Aaron Mannes

The story behind the killing of FARC leader Ivan Rios has become more interesting - and even more indicative that the FARC is on the verge of collapes. Colombia's Defense Minister now states that Rios was killed by his unit's...

Another FARC Leader Killed

By Aaron Mannes

News from Colombia keeps coming. This afternoon Colombian security killed Ivan Rios, another member of the FARC Estado Mayor Central (Central High Command.) This is the body that governs the organization. Raul Reyes, one of its members was killed last...

Assessing the Jerusalem Attack

By Aaron Mannes

The attack on a religious school in Jerusalem yesterday was the first major terror attack in that city since April 2006. There are several aspects of the attack that are worth noting. First it is a reminder that Palestinian terrorists...

FARC Bait for Bout

By Aaron Mannes

According to the Drug Enforcement Agency’s press release, international arms-trafficker extraordinaire Victor Bout was arrested for plotting to sell weapons to the FARC - not knowing that the reputed FARC representatives were in fact working for the DEA. Only nine...

Fighting FARC: On Strategy and Satellite Phones

By Aaron Mannes

A “senior Colombian intelligence source” claimed that Colombia was able to pinpoint FARC chief Raul Reyes’ location because of a phone call made to his satellite phone by Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez. If true, this would have a certain irony...

FARC Fallout: Assessing Dirty Bomb Claims

By Aaron Mannes

Among the more explosive revelations from the laptops of the late FARC leader Raul Reyes is the allegation that the FARC was trafficking in radioactive materials and according to Colombia’s Vice President was planning to build a “dirty bomb.” A...

Hugo's Overwrought Reaction to Reyes' Killing

By Aaron Mannes

National Review Online ran my article Finding FARC on the fallout from Colombia's killing of FARC #2 Raul Reyes and Hugo Chavez's reaction. March 4, 2008 Finding FARC An important victory for Columbia sparks a major diplomatic spat. By Aaron...

Death of Raul Reyes: FARC's Zawahiri

By Aaron Mannes

The killing of FARC chief ideologue Raul Reyes will have important implications for the FARC and also for the region. Reyes, who’s birth name was Luis Edgar Devia Silva, was the FARC’s chief ideologue and voice to the outside world....

After Mughniyah: Will Hezbollah Retaliate?

By Aaron Mannes

Long-time Hezbollah operations director Imad Mughniyah has been a seminal figure in the evolution of modern terrorism. He has links to Arafat and bin Laden, and is believed to have masterminded suicide vehicle bombings in Beirut, Argentina, and Saudi Arabia....

Facebook vs. FARC

By Aaron Mannes

The massive rallies against the FARC earlier this week (between 500,000 and two million people rallied in Bogota, along with parallel rallies worldwide) were a watershed in many ways. It was an indication of how low the FARC's standing...

SOTU: Shout Out for Colombia

By Aaron Mannes

In his final State of the Union address, President Bush specifically called on Congress to pass the Free Trade Agreement with Colombia:These agreements also promote America's strategic interests. The first agreement that will come before you is with Colombia, a...

FARC chief calls for a General Offensive in 2008

By Aaron Mannes

When OBL or his sidekick Ayman Zawahiri sneeze the world media leaps to broadcast it. Yet, a long-standing terrorist chief with a world spanning network calls for a "General Offensive" and it barely makes the wire services. FARC chief, Manuel...

Geopolitics of Gaza

By Aaron Mannes

In the coverage of the breach of the Gaza border, the focus has been on the increased threat to Israel. While there is little question that terrorists will acquire new capabilities and use them against Israel, their gaze may turn...

Pakistan & A Bomb Too Far

By Aaron Mannes

Less than a week before the assassination of former Pakistani Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto, there had been another bloody assassination attempt in Pakistan - both could represent turning points in Pakistan’s ongoing struggle with Islamist violence. In northwest Pakistan a...

Bhutto's Assassinaton Needs a Real Investigation

By Aaron Mannes

Facts about Benazir Bhutto's assassination are in short supply. Unfortunately that is unlikely to change. There is a long tradition of failure to investigate political murders in Pakistan. This cannot continue if Pakistan is to become a stable democratic state...

Ghosts of Iranian Terror Past & Future

By Aaron Mannes

Last week I posted about the AMIA bombing and what it tells us about the Iranian regime. I write often about AMIA because it is the starkest example of Iranian international terror. Iran and Hezbollah reached around the world and...

AMIA & the NIE

By Aaron Mannes

The NIE on Iran’s nuclear weapons program has sparked an ongoing controversy about the nature of the Iranian regime and its intentions. While the Iranian regime appears to have halted their nuclear weaponization program in 2003, they continue to research...

Darkness on Referendum Eve in Caracas

By Aaron Mannes

Lost in the good news that the Venezuelan people rejected President Hugo Chavez’s constitutional referendum is the story that federal police raided the main Jewish social club in Caracas the night before the polls opened for the referendum. This should...

Concerns about Mobile Phone Smuggling

By Aaron Mannes

Since Slate was kind enough to cite my thoughts on Syria’s attendance at the Annapolis Conference in its daily feature Today’s Blogs I thought I might return the favor. Yesterday Slate’s Hot Document section published a PowerPoint briefing given by...

Annapolis Conference & Syria's Truth

By Aaron Mannes

If Syria switched teams, from its current alignment with Iran to the U.S. aligned Arab states led by Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, and the Gulf states, it would be a diplomatic masterstroke. It would isolate Iran and cut loose its...

Video Games: Crucial Front in the War of Ideas

By Aaron Mannes

Today's New York Sun has an op-ed I co-authored with my boss, University of Maryland Institute for Advanced Computer Studies director, V.S. Subrahmanian on incorporating video games into the war of ideas against Islamist extremism. Gaming: Tactical Advantage BY AARON...

Justice for AMIA: Interpol & Argentina vs. Iran

By Aaron Mannes

There is a country and an international organization willing to stand up to the Iranian. Earlier this week Interpol voted overwhelmingly (74-14 with 26 abstentions) to issue a red letter calling for the arrest of five Iranians accused by the...

Whodunnit from Hell: The Attack on Benazir Bhutto

By Aaron Mannes

This morning National Review Online ran my article on the suicide bombing attack on Benazir Bhutto. October 23, 2007, 9:50 a.m. The Bhutto Attacks Cold comfort is the best we can hope for. By Aaron Mannes The question of who...

Pakistani Pressure-Cooker

By Aaron Mannes

Assuming Pakistani police reports are accurate (a big if) that the attack on returning former Pakistani premier Benazir Bhutto's convoy was not a car-bomb but a suicide bomber, it would be the deadliest attack by an individual suicide vest so...

Pakistani sieve

By Aaron Mannes

One of the helicopters escorting Pakistan’s President Pervez Musharraf crashed Monday, a brigadier and three others were killed. There is no evidence of terrorist activity. It was a technical problem. Nonetheless, the crash highlights one of the most serious concerns...

The End of Force 17?

By Aaron Mannes

Reportedly Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas is disbanding Force 17 as part of a re-org on Palestinian security forces. As Arafat’s elite Presidential Guard Force 17 has played a crucial role in the development of modern terrorism. Although Force 17’s disappearance...

Pointless Proposal: EU Seeks to Ban Access to Bomb-Making Instructions Online

By Aaron Mannes

The EU is considering a proposal that would ban websites that post instructions on bomb-making. The proposal is interesting because it does not appear to focus on criminalizing the websites. Instead it puts the burden on Internet Service Providers (ISPs)...

CAIR's Legal Gambit (and another Graph)

By Aaron Mannes

The move by CAIR and several other prominent Muslim organizations to have themselves de-listed as un-indicted co-conspirators in the Holy Land Foundation trials is an interesting, albeit unprecedented, legal maneuver that – if successful – would have a profound impact...

Dawood Ibrahim in the Dock?

By Aaron Mannes

The always turning rumor mill on the Indian-subcontinent is rotating at top speed with tales of the arrest of Dawood Ibrahim and his top deputies Tiger Memon and Chota Shakeel, all presumably residing in Pakistan and wanted by India for...

Libyan Hostage Taking: Past, Present & Future

By Aaron Mannes

Saif al-Islam al-Qadhafi, Muammar’s best-known son and likely heir, recently spoke with Newsweek International about, among other things, the recent release of five Bulgarian nurses and a Palestinian doctor who were convicted in a Libyan court of infecting hundreds of...

CAIR & Hamas: Implications and an Illustration

By Aaron Mannes

Allow me to add a few notes (and a graph) to the many excellent previous posts on Hamas, CAIR, and the Muslim Brotherhood in the United States. It cannot be re-iterated too often that CAIR is a Hamas spin-off. This...

Storms in Pakistan

By Aaron Mannes

Although Pakistani officials are denying it, apparently shots were fired at Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf’s plane from the roof of a house in Rawalpindi. Rawalpindi is the headquarters for Pakistan’s army! At the core of the frequently disturbing news from Pakistan is the reality that the government’s writ does not seem to extend over substantial parts of the country. Pakistan’s tribal areas (which in fairness have been resisting far-off governments for centuries) were problematic enough. But the Red Mosque siege indicates that the government does not even control its own capital city. That a large campus – with over a thousand residents – is incubating radical Islamists minutes from the Supreme Court is nerve-wracking (particularly in light of Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal.) This has led the United States and other nations to view Musharraf as the indispensable man, holding back the tide of radical Islam in Pakistan. Whatever Musharraf’s virtues or faults, it is essential that policy look beyond him. Pakistan was founded as a secular state for India’s Muslims. Islamist parties have received only small percentages of votes in national elections. Only a decade ago a secular, civilian (albeit corrupt) political party governed Pakistan. The rise of radical Islam has, in great part been fueled by the economic and social stagnation of military rule. Parts of the military have also supported radical Islamist groups, both to counter civilian political parties and as proxies in fighting India in Kashmir and extending Pakistani influence in Afghanistan. There are important parallels with Egypt, where the primary source of the current regime’s legitimacy is that Mubarak is not an Islamist. Pakistan’s military government appears to be headed down that path, but the Pakistani Islamists are not as well organized or powerful as Egypt’s Muslim Brotherhood – and there is a powerful secular civilian alternative. To effectively stem the rise of radical Islam it is essential that the United States and the world help Pakistan develop civilian institutions and return to civilian rule - not to place our faith in the fate of a single leader. As it happens, Musharraf was flying to Turbat, Baluchistan to see the damage done by recent floods. National Review Online ran my article (also see below) urging the U.S. to provide aid in the wake of this flooding, first for humanitarian reasons, but also as an opportunity to better engage with the Pakistani government. July 6, 2007 Pakistan Needs U And We Need Pakistan Aaron Mannes Hopefully the United States is preparing a massive relief package for Pakistan’s coastal regions, which have been hard hit by flooding caused by a cyclone and heavy monsoon rains since June 23. In addition to the humanitarian importance of this mission, aiding Pakistan’s response to the flooding could have some positive implications for the U.S.-Pakistani relationship.

Threats to the Internet

By Aaron Mannes

In today's edition of the Wall Street Journal Europe Jim Hendler (a computer science professor at RPI) and I discuss the implications of the recent cyber-attacks against Estonia. These attacks (along with a massive attack in February against the name...

Lax @ LAX

By Aaron Mannes

Waiting for a shuttlebus at LAX (Los Angeles International Airport) a few days ago, I noticed an abandoned bag. It was an odd place to leave a bag for a few minutes. When I alerted the nearest airport employee –...

Crime & Terror: The ID Threat

By Aaron Mannes

A few short belated (and unsolicited but positive) observations on co-blogger Daveed Gartenstein-Ross and Kyle Dabruzzi's paper The Convergence of Crime and Terror. Broadly speaking we are seeing criminal organizations adopt flatter more networked structures. This is tough for law...

Criticize Plan Colombia, but don't Forget FARC

By Aaron Mannes

Last week Colombia's President Alvaro Uribe visited Washington to meet congressional leaders and push for a free trade agreement. Prior to the 2006 elections this would have been (to abuse the now oft-quoted phrase) a "slam dunk." Uribe has been...

Sympathy for the Spy-Masters: MI-5's Mission Impossible

By Aaron Mannes

Since the revelation that MI-5 had encountered Mohammed Siddique Khan, the leader of the cell that carried out the July 7, 2005 London subway bombings, but had not continued to track him, Britain's domestic intelligence agency has been subject to...

House bill introduced to require State & Treasury cooperation on Countering Terrorism Financing

By Aaron Mannes

Three members of the House Financial Services Committee, including Chairman Barney Frank, introduced a bill to improve coordination between the major players in counterterrorism financing, particularly Treasury and State. The bill (click here for the full-text) essentially requires the departments...

U.S. House Hearings on Plan Colombia

By Aaron Mannes

This afternoon the House Foreign Affairs Subcommittee on the Western Hemisphere will hold hearings on “U.S. Colombia Relations.” For some time Plan Colombia, the multi-billion dollar U.S. aid package to Colombia to aid its fight against narco-terrorists, was seen as...

Virginia Tech Tragedy: Human Nature & Networks

By Aaron Mannes

While the Virginia Tech tragedy has spawned the predictable media frenzy, there has – so far – been an admirable lack of speculation about the killer, his motives, or what this event says about American society. Leftist philosopher Herbert Marcuse...

Attacks in Baghdad: Undermining the Concept of Iraq

By Aaron Mannes

In the Arab world, according to the eminent Bernard Lewis, the nation-state is faced with pressures from above and below. From below tribal, sectarian, and ethnic loyalties frequently trump national allegiances. From above, grand causes, pan-Arabism for much of the...

Iran: Targeting the U.S.-U.K. Alliance

By Aaron Mannes

According to U.S. officials, the Iranian forces that seized the British sailors earlier today were Revolutionary Guards, also known as Pasdaran. This is a significant distinction. The Pasdaran is a military force that is independent of Iran’s regular military. The...

LTTE & al-Qaeda: An Assessment

By Aaron Mannes

Sri Lanka's Daily News reports that the LTTE has stolen Norwegian passports and sold them to al-Qaeda affiliates. This is not implausible. Rohan Gunaratna (currently head of the International Centre for Political Violence and Terrorism Research in Singapore) wrote in...

No Rescue in Colombia

By Aaron Mannes

Last Saturday night (with President Bush landing in Colombia the next day) the U.S. Embassy in Bogota confirmed that U.S. and Colombian soldiers had engaged in a joint operation seeking to rescue three U.S. military contractors who have been held...

Cost of Doing Business: Chiquita in Colombia

By Aaron Mannes

The recent report that Chiquita Brands International has been fined $25 million for paying $1.7 million to the United Self-Defense Forces of Colombia (known by its Spanish acronym AUC) certainly raises the specter of giant American corporations in collaborating with...

Compare & Contrast: Taliban and Tamil Tiger Attacks on U.S. Officials

By Aaron Mannes

This week saw two terror attacks that apparently came close to high-level officials: the Taliban suicide bombing at Bagram Air Force Base while Vice President Cheney was staying there, and the Tamil Tiger (LTTE) mortar attack on an aircraft carrying...

North Korea, Terrorism, and the Negotiations

By Aaron Mannes

This morning National Review Online ran my article on North Korea's long history of supporting terrorism and how that will play into negotiations over the new agreement. February 15, 2007, 6:00 a.m. The T Word The lifting of North Korea’s...

A Plan Colombia for Afghanistan: Exporting Success?

By Aaron Mannes

Speaking in Bogotá a few weeks ago, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs General Peter Pace praised Colombia’s success at battling a drug fueled insurgency and cited it as a “good model” for Afghanistan. He wasn’t just praising his hosts; the...

Lacto-Terrorism: FARC Bombs a Dairy

By Aaron Mannes

Last week a FARC truck bomb carrying 660 lbs of explosives destroyed most of a dairy owned by the Swiss food multi-national Nestle in the southern state of Caqueta, one person was injured. Earlier in the week, also in Caqueta,...

Lebanese Opportunity? Former Secretary-General Attacks Hezbollah

By Aaron Mannes

The invaluable Middle East Media Research Institute translated a fascinating interview with former Secretary-General of Hezbollah, Sheikh Subhi al-Tufeili. In the interview, al-Tufeili criticizes Hezbollah for kidnapping Israeli soldiers this summer and sparking a war that devastated Lebanon. He also...

The President's Address: Counterinsurgency in Iraq/Countering Iran

By Aaron Mannes

In war movies (and occasionally in actual battles) last minute rallies carrying the day, just as things look most desperate, are a frequent plot device. This is roughly President Bush’s play with the troop surge he announced in his speech...

Fostering Chaos: Iran, the Sunnis, and Iraq

By Aaron Mannes

Eli Lake, of the The New York Sun, reports that documents captured from Iranian operatives in Iraq indicate that Iran has been supporting Sunni jihadists in Iraq. There have been other hints of this support. Reports on the IEDs have...

FARC Attack

By Aaron Mannes

On Saturday, the FARC lured a unit of elite Colombian soldiers into an ambush near the town of La Julia. In a day of fighting, 14 soldiers were killed. In Colombia’s long war with the FARC, incidents like this are...

Terror Tidings: The Blind Sheikh is Sick and Prince Turki Flies

By Aaron Mannes

News of Sheikh Omar abd al-Rahman’s illness has raised concerns of an upcoming terror attack. While it has not been reported as such, Saudi Ambassador Prince Turki’s sudden resignation and return to Saudi Arabia is another – very different (and...