An article in today's Washington Post is further proof of the need for such a strategy and indicates the degree to which the Defense Department is recognizing a permanent paradigm shift in the threat from state-based to asymmetric actors:

"An Army board headed by Gen. David H. Petraeus has selected several combat-tested counterinsurgency experts for promotion to the rank of brigadier general, sifting through more than 1,000 colonels to identify a handful of innovative leaders who will shape the future Army, according to current and former senior Army officers... Several of the colonels widely expected to appear on the resulting promotion list, which has not yet been released, are considered unconventional thinkers who were effective in the Iraq campaign, in many cases because they embraced a counterinsurgency doctrine that Petraeus helped craft, the officials said... They include Special Forces Col. Ken Tovo, a veteran of multiple Iraq tours who recently led a Special Operations task force there; Col. H.R. McMaster, a senior Petraeus adviser known for leading a successful counterinsurgency effort in the Iraqi city of Tall Afar, and Col. Sean MacFarland, who created a network of patrol bases in Ramadi that helped curb violence in the capital of Anbar Province, according to the officers."

Contributing Expert Walid Phares participated in another panel at the seminar titled, "Strategic Communications," which explored how to protect security through an effective communication strategy. Another panelist was Steven Monblatt, former senior CT official at the State Department and OAS who participated in our March 19 panel on FARC and Hugo Chavez, presented his views with some excellent and provocative recommendations. With his permission, I am posting his presentation here as a Word file for your review.

Weeks before the 1998 World Cup held in France police across Europe conducted raids against a network of Algerian militants, apprehending more than 100 individuals. According to French authorities the men were planning a string of attacks against stadiums during the World Cup, even though some believed French authorities used the World Cup as an excuse to crack down on Algerian networks (coincidentally, Farid Benyettou, a militant with close links to the 1998 network, was convicted just yesterday in Paris for recruiting young French Muslims to fight against U.S. forces in Iraq). Allegedly, a similar plot was uncovered by French authorities against Paris’ Stade de France in October 2001, when police arrested a handful of North African men reportedly planning to carry out an attack during the France-Algeria soccer match.

Authorities suspected a terrorist attack was planned also during the 2004 Euro Cup held in Portugal. Days before the beginning of the tournament Portuguese authorities, acting on a tip from Dutch intelligence, arrested three members of the Hofstad group in the city of Oporto. The men were deported and never charged with any crime, but authorities suspected the three wanted to target former Portuguese Prime Minister Jose Manuel Barroso (the plot was never fully confirmed). Authorities believe that the 2006 World Cup held in Germany was also targeted by jihadists. Various Islamist websites issued threats against it, but, more concretely, authorities found out, months after the event, that Ayman Hawa and Jihad Hamad, the two Lebanese men that placed suitcases filled with explosives (which, luckily, failed to detonate) on two German commuter trains in July 2006, had initially thought of targeting the World Cup.

On one hand major mediatic attention, the possibility of targeting large crowds (in and out of stadiums) and striking at Europe’s most cherished pastime make Euro 2008 a potential target for terrorists. Austria and Switzerland have a small presence of militants and sympathizers (even though in borderless Europe this has only limited relevance, as the threat could easily come from militants based in other European countries). Austria has recently dismantled its first homegrown network, which was running the German-language branch of the Global Islamic Media Front. The 2007 security report recently released by Swiss federal authorities clearly points to homegrown jihadist networks as “the most serious threat” to the country’s security. On the other hand, there is no reason to be alarmists. Not only is there no specific threat, but terrorists like surprises and easy targets and events such as Euro 2008 offer neither. Most of the plots described above, aside from the one targeting the 1998 World Cup in France, seem to have been either very abstract or very amateurish, often little more than just wishes.

While the terrorist threat clearly worries Swiss and Austrian authorities, who are working closely with their counterparts throughout Europe, a more concrete fear is that of hooliganism, given the precedents of urban guerrilla that took place before and/or after some games (particularly England’s) of the 1998 France World Cup, 2000 Euro Cup (held in Belgium and Holland) and the 2006 Germany World Cup (and just last night there were riots during and after the UEFA Cup final between Glasgow Rangers and Zenit of Saint Petersburg and a Russian fan was stabbed).

A. Daily Kos: Jihad Not Terrorism

Three weeks after AP's report of the NCTC/DHS recommendations to eliminate the term "jihadist" (among others) from the lexicon describing Jihadist terrorism, the latest salvo in this "war of ideas" was published on the popular Daily Kos web site by "Amad" on May 12: "Who Speaks for Islam? Part 3b: Jihad, Religion & Politics". The Daily Kos author states that to "most Muslims, jihad implies honor and sacrifice for others", and "[u]sing jihad and terrorism as synonyms is wrong and counterproductive" -- seeking to define the threat as "extremism". The article also expands on the real cause of "extremism" as "disrespect for Islam", "aggressive" U.S. foreign policy, and "double-standards exhibited by the US on democracy and human-rights". It quotes a student at the American University of Cairo as condemning U.S. foreign policy: "Bush has given Israel carte blanch to attack Palestinians and Lebanese. The war on terror is an open-ended war on Muslims."

Daily Kos provides a biography on "Amad" stating: "Amad runs MuslimMatters.org... [and]... was one of the founders of Texas Dawah." Amad's blogroll on Daily Kos promotes MuslimMatters.org and CAIR. What Daily Kos does not mention is who some of the participants at Texas Dawah meetings and at the MuslimMatters.org website are, as they include supporters of jihadist groups, unindicted co-conspirators in U.S. terror trials, and supporters of the Taliban.

Uribe's own past ties to paramilitary organizations, the political influence wielded by the groups and the alleged direct participation in the groups by his cousin and close adviser Mario Uribe, now jailed, have seriously undermined his government's credibility in the international arena, even as his administration successfully tackled the Marxist FARC forces.

Perhaps this is a sign that the AUC leaders, despite their political and military patrons, will finally face justice in the same way the FARC is pursued.

The AUC, along with the FARC, was designated a terrorist entity by the US in 2001, a designation shared by the EU and other groups.

"Among those extradited were Salvatore Mancuso, Rodrigo Tovar, Diego Fernando Murillo, Hernán Giraldo and Ramiro Vanoy. Along with others, they have been accused of ordering the slayings of thousands of people over a generation, from poor peasants to leftist politicians, journalists to union activists."

That encapsulates one of the great tragedies of Colombia-the political violence has been endemic for generations. This group of paramilitary leaders, responsible for the deaths of thousands of people, as well as the export of tons of cocaine, reaches back decades in its criminal activity.

While I have spent much time on the FARC and its alliance with Venezuela (Hugo Chavez) and potential alliance because of that tie, to Iran, the AUC has been an equally destructive force inside Colombia.

While not posing the national security threat to the United States nor possessing the same explicitly anti-American agenda the FARC does, the AUC has been a larger drug trafficking force and wreaked havoc for years on the civilian population. My full blog is here.

As I write this, I do not know the Administration's position on this section, but as a matter of principle it usually opposes any Congresional action designed to mandate or limit Executive Branch discretion in foreign policy. The section is already reduced in scope from its original version, which added more conditions. In light of the discovery of North Korean personnel working at the Syrians' nuclear sites, the Administration wil be hard-pressed to publicly justify opposition to this provision. I assume that the Administration will work quietly to remove the section from the Senate version, its usual M.O. in these situations, but I predict that the Senate will include this section. Then we'll see if the President vetoes this bill over this or any other section (and whether Congress moves to pass it separately).

The full text of Section 306, as of today, is below.

The government though not ruled out the use of military explosives in these blasts (e.g.RDX), enough evidence of cocktail bombs emerged during initial mopping of the blast sites. Mobile phones, Iron pipes, wires and plastic substances, splinters and timer devices found with mangled bicycles and bikes. Looking at these findings, fingers of suspicion pointed at the Islamic terror alliance: Harkat-ul-Jehadi Islami (HuJI)- Lashkar e Toiba- Student Islamic Movements of India (SIMI). HujI has revolutionized use of mobile phones, commercial explosives and chemicals (Neogel-90) in most of terror strikes recently, e.g. in Mecca mosque blasts in Hyderabad last year.

Last October (2007) for the first time, terror struck Rajasthan when an explosion at the famous Ajmer Sheriff (Dargah of Sufi saint Moinuddin Chishti ) in Ajmer that left two persons dead and over 15 others injured.

Pictures

Blasts rocks the Pink City

Serial blasts leave trail of destruction

CTB Contributing Expert Frank Hyland, a former CIA and NSA official who also writes for the Jamestown Foundation, and Zeyno Baran, Director of the Center for Eurasian Policy at the Hudson Institute and a former CTB Contributing Expert, will serve as Commentators for the seminar after the Ambassador speaks. Closing comments will be made by Professor Edgar H. Brenner, Co-Director of the Inter-University Center for Legal Studies and co-editor of Turkey: Terrorism, Civil Rights and the European Union (2008).

My co-chair, Professor Yonah Alexander, is Director of the Inter-University Center for Terrorism Studies and co-editor of Turkey: Terrorism, Civil Rights and the European Union. Professor Alexander was a panelist in our February 12 panel, "The Evolution of U.S. Counterterrorism Policy" and in our April 15 panel, "Iran and the United States: Outlook for the Next Decade?"

The event is co-sponsored by the Counterterrorism Foundation; the Hudson Institute; the Inter-University Center for Terrorism Studies, the International Center for Terrorism Studies at the Potomac Institute for Policy Studies, and the Inter-University Center for Legal Studies at the International Law Institute.

To RSVP, contact Jenn Zewin by e-mail or call 703-562-4522 with your name and affiliation. Acceptances only, please.

Indeed The Croissant reported that Sheikh Abbassian Abbas, the Supreme Leader’s representative in Taybad (a city located near the Afghan border) responsible for the mobilization and recruitment within the Bassij (a militia at the service of the regime of the mullahs) was killed in an ambush in the city of Khafajia (in the province of Ahvaz, home to a mostly ethnic Arab population). Iranian authorities confirmed this information on 5/6/08.

Such incursions by Turkey worry many analysts who are concerned about the risks of accidental skirmishes and civilian casualties. Today my associate Samantha Rollinger and I have an article in the Middle East Times that assesses the risks posed by such Turkish raids. An excerpt:

We spoke with several analysts who felt that a miscalculated conflict between Turkish and American forces was simply not a realistic concern due to coordination between the two countries' militaries. Svante Cornell, research director for the Central Asia-Caucasus Institute at Johns Hopkins University's Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies, told us that Turkey's ground offensive in February never could have occurred without coordination with the United States. "An accidental conflict between U.S. forces and Turkish forces is not even worth talking about," he said. "The Turkish military has a direct relationship with the U.S. military. The U.S. was informed, and was brought to a point of approving of it." Cornell emphasized that while the U.S. was likely displeased with Turkey's incursion, it understood that the intervention was inevitable due to PKK attacks against Turkey....

The PKK's location has also helped to keep civilian casualties from spiraling out of control during Turkish interventions. A senior American military intelligence officer told us that the PKK does not follow Mao Zedong's famous adage that "the guerilla is the fish and the people are the sea." Moreover, he noted that the PKK does not have a great deal of support in northern Iraq's large urban areas - thus inhibiting the group's ability to mix into the civilian population to the same extent as, for example, al-Qaida in Iraq.

You can read the whole article here.

The entire TerrorWatch episode can be viewed on the NEFA Foundation website.

Privately, FARC's leaders discussed in e-mails the reality that Chavez knew FARC was responsible. As FARC leader Raul Reyes concluded, "President Chavez is annoyed, but wants to treat this politically and with prudence." According to the e-mails, Venezuelan military leaders were increasingly upset at FARC's kidnapping, extortion and murder of Venezuelan cattle ranchers, but President Chavez wanted to keep things quiet in order to maintain a relationship with FARC despite the provocations due to FARC's ability to contribute regionally to extending the reach of Chavez's "Bolivarian revolution."

What those stories do not detail is Qatanani's history of attending radical conferences in the United States, nor his frequent use of incendiary rhetoric in speeches and sermons.

For the entire story, click here to go to the IPT's website.

UPDATE: News reports indicate that the trial, which had originally been scheduled to last just three days, has been extended. Testimony will resume on Monday, June 1. Please check the CT Blog and the IPT website for updates on the proceedings.

Documents reviewed by AP provided by Colombia from the computers seized by Colomba in the March 1 cross-border raid on FARC that killed Raul Reyes were described by AP as detailing years of close cooperation between top officials in Venezuela's government and military and FARC, including the construction of rebel training facilities on Venezuelan soil.

According to AP, the documents suggested that Chavez was preparing to loan the rebels at least $250 million to provide them with Russian weapons and possibly help them obtain surface-to-air missiles for use against Colombian military aircraft.

AP described the documents as framing "a joint strategic project between Venezuela and the Colombian rebels, with Venezuela even seeking rebel training in "asymmetrical warfare" in preparation for a feared U.S. invasion."

Meanwhile, on May 10, a Spanish newspaper reported that documents from the Raul Reyes computers seized by Colombia in the March 1 cross-border raid included an e-mail from FARC leader Ivan Marquez that Venezuelan head of state Chavez had discussed providing weapons to FARC with Belarus.

According to the Madrid newspaper, El Pais, a partially coded message mentioned a person the newspaper identified as Victor Sheiman, secretary of the Belarus Security Council and a close associate of Alexander Lukashenko, the hardline president of the former Soviet republic, as having discussed the provision of weapons with Chavez.

I just wrote on Hezbollah's coup for The Middle East Times. To read the whole article, please click here.

Here is an excerpt:

The Lebanese government last week tried to put a stop to Hezbollah's blatant takeover of the country. Authorities outlawed Hezbollah's illegal parallel telecom network and fired the airport's head of security, a Hezbollah ally who had authorized installations of spy cameras in order to monitor the movements of majority leaders.

Saying it amounted to a declaration of war, Hezbollah used its overpowering force to seize most of the Sunni areas of Beirut and shut down the airport and the majority-owned media.

Why is anyone surprised by these latest events?

The Arab league and Western diplomats seem to be speechless and several nations asked their citizens to leave the country. But the writing was on the wall. In December 2007 in an article entitled, "Hezbollah in Beirut's driver seat," published by the Middle East Times, I wrote that "unsurprisingly Hezbollah has been planning and implementing a secret coup for some time using a multi-pronged strategy."

What has been a surprise and a major disappointment for the Lebanese people is the decision of the army not to get involved in the fighting. While it is true that the army needs to remain neutral since it is composed of personnel from the various religious communities, it is no secret that Hezbollah has infiltrated it. The army was perceived as the only functioning part of the government, but the past few days have shown that this was just a bad assessment. Finally this should not have come as a major shocker since the chief of the army and only presidential candidate, Gen. Michel Suleiman, appears to be more and more taking orders from Damascus.

As one of the leading lights on terrorism and the legal issues in that field, Jeff was able to regularly provide our readers with valuable insights and understanding on numerous fronts. As a board member, he was also able to help us navigate through tough decisions as the CTB has undergone enormous growth and works out its place in the CT community.

While his contributions will be missed here, his return to DOJ is a gain for the Department as it faces enormous challenges. So, Jeff, thank you for all your work here, and good luck in your return.