Iraq Vote & Triple Bombings: The Terrorists' Strategic Failures (Updated 10/27)

By Andrew Cochran

UPDATE 10/27 for UK Guardian article: "This rift in the insurgency has already gone far beyond angry words. Clashes erupted between al-Qaida fighters and Iraqi mujahideen cells after al-Qaida killed a group of Iraqi insurgents who they claimed were spying for the Americans."

The count is finished, and Iraqis voted to ratify the constitution, with the three Sunni-dominated provinces failing to vote in sufficient negative numbers. The terrorists failed to stop the voting and failed to persuade Sunnis in Ninevah to abandon the political process and follow their murderous road. Yesterday's triple bombings, now apparently claimed by Al Qaida in Iraq, should also be seen as another proof of their strategic failure to date. It was a pathetic attempt, perhaps to kidnap journalists and use them as bait for a trade, as well as to energize the journalistic community to report on the "failure" of the Iraqi-U.S. coalition (see Ranting Profs & Fourth Rail posts). Such an amateurish plot, which resulted in a remarkably light loss of life despite the use of three massive bombs, highlights the weak position now facing Al-Zarqawi and other terrorists in Iraq and their investors in Syria, Iran, and elsewhere. You have to ask yourself, "Is this the best they can do? Is this their best shot after the elections?" The Iraq terrorists have no shred of legitimacy as a political force for Sunnis, having killed civilians with their bombs and driven the largest Sunni political party into endorsing the constitution. Walid Phares made the point on MSNBC today that at least many of the Sunnis have now bought into the political process. At this point, the terrorists are a more active and dangerous version of the American 1920s Mafia gang or today's MS-13 - they have no political or military base upon which to build a "caliphate." If the Shiite-Kurdish majority continues to provide incentives for Sunni political participation and Iraqi security forces continue to improve and grow, the terrorists will see no daylight. No doubt they will find some comfort in the anti-American propaganda of the Arab press and in the negativism of the Western pessimists...that is a subject for a future post (especially after President Bush specifically mentioned this point today). Today is a day to celebrate yet another milestone towards a peaceful and democratic Iraq, something that seemed difficult for some to imagine even a short time ago.

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