Terror Attacks in Bali: JI Not Quite Dead Yet?

By Zachary Abuza

Earlier this week, the former foreign minister of Australia, and current president of the highly respected International Crisis Group, Gareth Evans, gave a speech in Australia in which he stated that Jemaah Islamiyah (JI) had been eliminated and no longer posed a significant threat.

He is eating humble pie this morning.

While JI has not claimed responsibility for the attacks, they are the primary suspects. They are the only organization with the capability and will to conduct such attacks. The targeting of the western-oriented secotrs of the economy in an attempt to de-stabilize the regime has always been their trademark.

Around 7:30 PM, Saturday, three bombs were simultaneously detonated in the Indonesian tourist island of Bali. A fourth bomb was confirmed defused. Others may have been found and disarmed, others may have failed to go off. Based on scattered initial reports, 25 people are confirmed dead, and an Indonesian police official told a local radio that the figure is over 30; 95 people were wounded according to initial reports. Foreigners, including 2 Americans, 2 Australians, 1 Japanese and a Korean are amongst the casualties. The bombs were detonated in Jimbaran beach area and down town Kuta, two of the most crowded tourist spots, at the busiest time of the day.

The bombs were small, under 5 kilograms. At least one that was defused was a pipe bomb, which is a far cry from the massive truck bombs that had become the JI trademark in their last three attacks (Bali in October 2002, the JW Marriott in Jakarta in August 2003, and the Australian Embassy in September). Yet simultaneous bombings � are clearly an AQ/JI hallmark and demonstrate significant logistical capability. The smaller bombs are easier to assemble and move around the country.

Why Bali again? In October 2002, days before the first attack on the resort island, Osama Bin Laden issued a statement in which he warned that "we will target the nodes of your economy." That was the line and most attacks outside or Iraq since then have followed suit. By targeting Bali they
first are striking the economy, and hence the stability of the apostate regime. The other leg of the Indonesian economy - natural resource exploitation may be beyond their means. Second, targeting Bali drives out westerners, whom they believe are a corrupting force on society. In their eyes, Islam can never triumph the west as long as it is infected with impurities.

JI has limited capabilities: While on the run, they are only able to plan and procure enough materials for one major attack a year. The governments have made progress against JI in the past four years. It is a more diffuse organization that has relied/recruited from other Islamist organizations. There is less clear command and control. I have been making the case that JI is in rebuilding mode, after 4 years of concerted counter-terrorist operations. To that end, it has put more emphasis on spiritual purification and fomenting sectarian conflict. JI has a very long-term agenda. Their own documents speak of a 30 year struggle. As the Prophet Mohammad himself had to retreat and regroup, they have the theological cover they need. JI will remain a potent threat to the region for some time to come.

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