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November 2005 Archives
Behind the GAO Report on Problems in fighting Terrorism FundingBy Michael Kraft
Hold on folks. Unfortunately there is more to the US Governments inter-agency problems in countering financing terrorism than Doug Farah and Zachary Abuza commented on posts earlier today or even the GAO said in its report issued Tuesday. The process was described as suffering from severe turf fights in the just-released GAO report with the typically Washington title Better Strategic Planning needed to Coordinate U.S. Efforts to Deliver Counterterrorism Financial Training and Technical Assistance Abroad.http://www.gao.gov/new.items/d0619.pdf The New York Times, which obtained an advance copy of the report, headlined it Turf Wars Hinder U.S. Attack on Terror Cash. Read More » Designating the Abu Sayyaf: A Case Study in a Broken Inter-Agency ProcessBy Zachary Abuza
The US Governments effort to block of terrorist assets is broken according to the forthcoming GAO report, leaked to the New York Times. The turf wars between the relevant agencies, Treasury, State, the FBI, the Intel Community, military commands, and the NSC are legion. Each has their own bureaucratic interest in the issue and their missions tend to be at odds with one another especially when it comes to terrorist financing. The State Departments official response, as quoted in the November 29, 2005, New York Times, denied the lack of inter-agency coordination: "No interagency process is without flaws," but continued: there is much evidence that the inter-agency working group on terrorist financing is one of the most successful examples of interagency cooperation. The State Departments position is laughable. One only has to look to todays announcement by the Department of the Treasury that three of the top Abu Sayyaf group (ASG) leaders, Jainal Antel Sali, Jr., Radulan Sahiron, and Isnilon Totoni Hapilon, were designated pursuant to Executive Order 13224, to understand the inter-agency gridlock that creates obstacles rather than coordinates efforts. Why has it taken all these years to get these three men designated? This case is appalling because unlike other, more politically and diplomatically sensitive cases, it is so uncontroversial. The ASG has been on the US Governments FTO list for years. Since early-2002, US military personnel have been sporadically based in the southern Philippines to train their Philippine counterparts. The ASG featured prominently in the White Houses 2003 National Strategy to Counter Terrorism. The ASG has no state sponsors, or even defenders in Riyadh. Other ASG members have been successfully designated before. Several ASG leaders have been indicted in US courts, and the US government has issued rewards for their capture in their Rewards for Justice Program. Moreover, the Philippine government is fully on board the War on Terror. While they resist pressure for the US Government to act on the MILF, Manila is more than happy to see us move on the ASG or JI. And yet, these three designations took well over half a year to go through. These designations were as cut and dry, politically and diplomatically indifferent, as can be. One understands the political realities when dealing with very sensitive cases such as politically protected Islamic charities in Indonesia, the largest Muslim country in the world and the victim of 4 major terrorist attacks since October 2002. But none of those sensitivities was present in this case, and none of those vested bureaucratic interests should have been either. The wheels of the government turn slowly, but this slowly on a downhill slope? Saudi TV Program Televises Terrorists' Confessions, Discusses Recruitment TechniquesBy Andrew Cochran
I highlighted the Senate Judiciary Committee's hearing on Saudi Arabia's role in the dissemination of extremist propaganda. And this summer, I posted an interview with French filmmaker Pierre Rehov about his interviews of suicide bombers and their motivations (here is a recent FrontPage column by Mr. Rehov on the subject). So I'm somewhat encouraged by this news report that last night, Saudi TV broadcast the first in a series titled, "Jihad Experiences, the Deceit." According to the news report, the show "featured the testimonies of three repentant terrorists who reveal how al-Qaeda recruits young people and convinces them to blow themselves up in the name of Islam." Moreover, quoting the news report, Saudi TV also spoke to religious experts who explain how al-Qaeda's reasoning differs from Islamic Sharia law. They also explained the social and emotional situations that lead these young people to fall into the terror group's trap, the fact that the recruiters use their passion and predisposition to extremism, as well as their desire to change the world through quick, radical solutions. The programme highlighted how the recruitment activities and brainwashing of the fundamentalist cells lead the young person to distance themselves from their own families and the world around them. This is the type of program that the Saudi government must sponsor, inside and outside the Kingdom, to prove that it will no longer allow or tolerate the export of hateful propaganda, and to dissuade suicide bombers from finding an alibi in a twisted form of Islam. I'm wary that this will be a singular event without followthrough, like past Saudi commitments on this issue, but it is a worthy start. The More Things Change...By Douglas Farah
A soon to be released GAO report, leaked to the New York Times and others, finds that, four years after 9-11 the U.S. government "lacks and intergrated strategy" to help other countries cut off the flow of funds to terrorists. What is most disturbing is that all the old turf wars, somewhat eased in the immediate aftermath of the attacks, have resurfaced with all their destructive energy. The Treasury, Justice and State departments are fighting over who gets to do what where, and in the process spend a great deal of time battling each other rather than going after the money flows of al Qaeda, Hamas and others. One exchange described in the report has a Treasury Department official complaining that the process for deterring terrorist financing abroad is "broken" and that the State Department "creates obstacles rather than coordinates efforts." A State Department official responded that the real problem is Treasury's unwillingness to accept State's lead role in the program. While the report focuses on the U.S. efforts to train other countries in ways to combat terror finance, it confirms a larger problem within the administration, as described to me by people in government and those who served there for many years. There is simply little interest on following up on issues raised on terror finance, and almost no leadership provided by those who sit in the principals' meeting in funding, attacking or seriously focusing on the issue. The CIA, according to one source, still has noone dedicated to tracing terror finance issues, never mind a special unit. The wind has gone out of the sails, as one former official recently told me (and the source is a Bush fan). Go here to read complete blog. Villepin LIED on CNNBy Olivier Guitta
Indeed, in an interview given to Christiane Amanpour, French Prime Minister Dominique Marie Francois Rene Galouzeau de Villepin- that's his real full name- when asked about the recent riots in France answered: "I am not sure you can call them riots. It's very different from the situation you have known in 1992 in L.A. for example. You had at that time 54 people that died, and you had 2,000 people wounded. In France during the 2 weeks period of unrest, nobody died in France. So, I think you can't compare this social unrest with any kind of riots." "In Lebanon, Arab fighters are ready to die in Iraq"By Evan Kohlmann
A Puzzling Response to "The Freedoms We Fight For"By Daveed Gartenstein-Ross
A reader, Peter Murray, has a truly bizarre response to "The Freedoms We Fight For" (see my article here and my blog entry about it here):
This is perhaps the most puzzling criticism yet of one of my articles (although Aryan Nations leader August Kreis provides stiff competition). To refer to Murray's argument as a logical fallacy would give it too much credit. Murray is actually attempting to put forward a logical fallacy, the tu quoque fallacy. Tu quoque literally means "you're another," and refers to the argument that an advocate cannot attack another's actions because the advocate has acted in a similar fashion. In their book Arguments and Arguing, Thomas A. Hollihan and Kevin T. Baaske provide an example of this fallacy:
Thus, Murray's argument aspires to be a logical fallacy, but falls short even of that. Instead, his position seems to be that because the Bush Administration allegedly strangled speech, I cannot criticize Islamists for threatening free speech with death. In his incoherent response, Murray typifies many Westerners' sadly tepid response to these threats from Islamists. He is so absorbed with his hatred of the Bush administration that he cannot bring himself to acknowledge, let alone stand up to, the Islamist assault on free speech. President Bush Can't Simultaneously Remove and Reward Illegal AliensBy Michael Cutler
The President is attempting to do something that is physically impossible - he appears to want to be, or at least appear to be, in two places at one time. On the one hand, he claims he want to see the immigration laws enforced and talks about the need to remove illegal aliens who are caught near the border. He noted that the administration wants to implement "expedited removal" for aliens caught anywhere on the border. He also talked about the effort to repatriate illegal Mexican aliens to the interior of Mexico to make it more difficult for those aliens to attempt to try to run the border. Yet, his guest worker program would reward those illegal aliens who succeed in getting to the interior of the United States. These illegal aliens would be eligible to participate in his guest worker program. We are waging a "War on Terror." The President and his administration remind us of this constantly. He stated that the guest workers would receive secure identity documents to help employers know who they are hiring. This is simply wrong! With the crush of millions of illegal aliens showing up at immigration offices around the country, it is to be expected that many of them will be undocumented aliens. Think, for a moment, what that term means. These individuals have no identity documents. Absolutely nothing would stop terrorists from showing up at an immigration office and apply for a guest worker permit under a false name. If they managed to stay 'under the radar' so that their fingerprints are not on file, it would be absolutely impossible for the immigration employees to really know the identity of the alien standing in front of him/her. Even if the person had been arrested for a minor charge the name relating to the fingerprints might still not be that person's true name. Whenever you look at an arrest record, or "rap sheet" it is not uncommon for the bad guys to have multiple identities. In fact, according to the 9/11 Commission, the 19 terrorists who attacked our nation used a total of 364 different identities. The only thing worse than no security is false security. These documents may be tamper-resistant, but if the process by which they are issued is so terribly flawed, they will not enhance our security, only provide the false illusion that they provide secure and accurate identification of the bearer of these documents. Update on Militants' Efforts in Kashmir & Pakistan Earthquake ZonesBy Andrew Cochran
Victor Comras posted last week about the Kashmir militants' use of earthquake relief as a recruitment tool. I just heard from a U.S. government official who recently traveled to the region (and liked Victor's post) and provided this feedback: I was able to travel briefly to the earthquake-affected areas--Muzaffarabad (in Pakistani Kashmir) and Mansehra and Shinkiari (in the Northwest Frontier Province). The Pakistani religious parties (namely the Jamaat-I-islami) and extremist groups (Jamaat ul-dawa--formerly the Lashkar-eTayyiba) have definitely taken advantage of the situation to try to win support from the population. They were the first to get into the affected areas and are experienced in social work, whereas the political parties in the area are not and have bearly been visible. Although the Pakistani military was slow off the mark, they are very much there now and apparently working pretty well with the NGO community. Most are doubtful that the religious groups can translate their earned good will with the people into votes at the scheduled July 2006 polls in Pakistani Kashmir. The question is whether these groups will be able to take advantage of the situation to renew support for militancy in Indian Kashmir. This is a question that no one can answer yet, but all should be focused on. Insurgent Cross-Pollination A Serious ThreatBy Douglas Farah
It is now clear that the phenomenon much feared by the intelligence community and military in fighting global terrorism is now well-advanced--the cross-pollination of techniques and strategies of different groups, able to share lethal technological innovations across national boundries to comrades battling elsewhere. The Washington Post on Monday carried a lengthy story on how tactics from Iraqi jihadists are showing up in Afghanistan. It is not just the suicide bombing themselves, it is the technology of building the bombs, the use of more sophisticated, harder to detect detonators and the accumulated knowledge that now moves back and forth across much of the jihadi world. U.S. military and intelligence officials have long believed that this spread of knowledge, communication and networking in the jihad world was one of the biggest dangers of the Iraq invasion and the resulting, fragmented insurgency. It created a crucible where jihadists could meet, train, study and fight together, greatly strengthening the network's trust and knowledge of each other and facilitating communication after one's stint in Iraq finished. It is now clear they were right to be concerned. Even more worrisome is the almost-inevitable spread of these techniques and startegies around the globe where the jihadists are active--from the Philippines to Africa to Southeast Asia. Being in combat with someone, and having a shared set of experiences greatly strengthens the bonds of individuals and groups engaged in clandestine activities. Afghanistan, Bosnia, Sudan and other places have offered this to a lesser degree than Iraq in the past. But in Iraq there is the added advantage of fighting American soldiers, not other proxy armies. As I have mentioned in the past, the Post article also highlights the seeming financial resurgence of the Taliban and the sharing of resources--military and financial--with al Qaeda foreign fighters there. The tempo of Taliban activities in Afghanistan has greatly increased, and Taliban units now occassionally include Arab fighters in their ranks. The equipment and technology they now have is new and very good. This could be a sign of involvement in the booming opium trade, of renewed external financial assistance or a mixture of both. There is little I read or hear to suggest either the Salafist combatants in Iraq or Afghanistan are increasing their public appeal. But, as in every insurgent war, if the goverment forces are not in control of an area the people will go with the flow and work with whoever wields the most power. Survival is paramount, not ideology, among the civilians trying to eke out a living. Not winning is dangerously akin to losing. Gauging Progress in Combating TerrorismBy Victor Comras
How do we measure the progress being made in the War on Terrorism? That is the theme of a recent Congressional Research Service report prepared by CRS terrorism expert Raphael Perl. The report reflects concerns that we really have not developed the criteria necessary to judge the effectiveness of our anti-terrorism actions. Perl holds that in the absence of such criteria the Administration has simply measured progress retrospectively against what it has done. And of course since we've done some stuff, we've made progress. Rather than measure progress against agreed benchmarks, he says, the administration has cited statistics on kills, captures, and funds frozen. But, this does not mean that we actually know just how much damage has really been done to terrorism infrastructure, recruitment or financial support. Charles Pena of the Cato Institute made similar point lasts year. He noted President Bush State of the Union claim that nearly two-thirds of [al Qaeda's] known leadership have been captured or killed. But, according to Pena, this is a misleading metric for gauging progress. Pena points out that al Qaeda is not a centralized network that depends on its leaders. Rather its cells or largely organic and can operate independently. Leaders are replaced as needed, and recruitment continues to rebuild its ranks. The fact is that each year, since 9/11 has seen an increase in terrorist violence, not a diminuation. The same can be said for judging our progress in dealing with terrorism financing. The freezing of $150 $200 million in bank accounts around the world really tells us quite little about the effect we are having on terrorism financing. Most of this money was frozen just after 9/11 and about 2/3rds of it had nothing really to do with al Qaeda. It was Afghan money subsequently returned to the Karsai government. These freezing actions had little effect in putting Al Qaedas identified financiers out of business. Youssef Nada, Ahmed Nasreddin, Yasin al-Kadi, Hamza Julaidan (to name only a few) are still managing their portfolio investments. Nor have we effectively closed down the charities identified as channeling funds to al Qaeda. Many have simply reorganized under new names to accomplish the same ends. See for example by blogs on al Haramain and Lashka e Taiba. Our success in dealing with terrorism has to be measured in inches, not miles. And we must be very cautious when claiming progress or success, least we begin to let down our guard. We have to recognize that the war on terrorism will be around for some time to come; and, to win, that we must place an even greater emphasis on countering and dismantleing the structures that finance and support the indoctrination and recruitment of new militant jihadis willing to sacrifice innocent lives in ways no legitimate religion should preach. Reuven Paz, JC Brisard Weigh in on Iraq's Foreign FightersBy Evan Kohlmann
My blog posts last week on Iraq's foreign fighters have generated very positive and thoughtful responses from other colleagues in this field, including Dr. Reuven Paz and Jean-Charles Brisard. Dr. Paz is the author of an academic report earlier this year on foreign fighters in Iraq and JCB is, of course, the author of Zarqawi: The New Face of Al-Qaeda. For the benefit of researchers and others interested in the foreign fighters phemonenon, I'm posting both of their comments below. In the meantime, despite efforts to downplay their role in the Iraqi insurgency, Al-Qaida supporters have announced the deaths of two more "mythical" Saudi Arabian nationals hailing from Riyadh who were reportedly killed in recent clashes with U.S. forces near the Iraqi city of Fallujah. Dr. Reuven Paz:
Jean Charles Brisard:
New Daily Standard Article: "The Freedoms We Fight For"By Daveed Gartenstein-Ross
I previously blogged about the threat to Omar Sharif that was posted on a jihadist website after the actor spoke glowingly about playing St. Peter in an Italian TV film. I've also noted on this blog that Sharif isn't alone in being threatened for allegedly offending Islamic sensitivities; rather, there is a disturbing trend of people being threatened, and sometimes killed, when radical Muslims take umbrage at their speech. Now "The Freedoms We Fight For," an article I wrote for the Daily Standard that documents and analyzes this trend, has been posted. An excerpt:
Read the whole article here. Apparent Zarqawi Clone in Morocco Threatens Suicide Attacks on "Infidel Colonizers" and "Apostate Rulers"By Evan Kohlmann
A previously unknown group calling itself the "Tawheed wal-Jihad Islamic Movement" has issued a new communiqu threatening to wage jihad against the King of Morocco and his secular, pro-Western government. According to the statement, "Let the perverted king know that there are many young Moroccan men who are seeking martyrdom and we have no fear of him or his followers. Let the criminals know that, if Allah wills it, we will set the ground underneath their feet ablaze... We inform you that your day has come and soon the first flames of our holy jihad shall burst forth." Prior to Abu Musab al-Zarqawi swearing bayat (an oath of allegiance) to Usama Bin Laden in November 2004, his terrorist affiliate organization in Iraq was likewise known as the "Tawheed wal-Jihad Movement." EU May Stop Providing US-Bound Air Passenger InformationBy Victor Comras
The European Court of Justice's Advocate General Philippe Leger, has just issued an Advisory Opinion favoring a EU Parliament challenge to a May 2004 agreement under which EU countries provide the US Bureau of Customs advance data on all air passengers traveling to the United States. Information provided under the agreement includes the name, address, form of payment and contact phone numbers for each passenger. It also includes other background information that may be available to airline and airport officials. The Advocate General Opinion found that the agreement, while authorized by the EU Council , lacked a sufficient legal basis and was contrary to existing EU law. His Opinion called for the agreement to be annulled. The EU Commission had previously held that the agreement fully met European privacy restrictions criteria. The Advocate Generals finding bolsters a previously existing court challenge to the agreement initiated by the EU Parliament several months ago. The Luxembourg-based European Court of Justice is expected to rule on the case in early 2006. While the Advocate Generals Opinion is not binding on the court it has been followed in a majority of cases before the court. Since May 2004, the EU has given U.S. authorities 34 categories of information on passengers flying to the United States, including name, address, all forms of payment and contact phone numbers. The agreement followed US Congressional action requiring each air carrier operating passenger flights in foreign air transportation to or from the United States to provide the Department of Homeland Security with electronic access to passenger name record data to the extent it is collected and contained in the air carriers automated reservation/departure control system. An EU court ruling abrogating the agreement would throw a major wrench into the existing US aviation control system and would represent a major set-back for the G-8s anti-terrorism Secure and Facilitated Travel (SAFTI) initiative. Religious "Charities" Fund Terror Operations by Iraqi InsurgentsBy Evan Kohlmann
(MNF-IRAQ.COM): "Acting on multiple intelligence sources and tips from concerned citizens, Coalition forces raided a suspected Jaysh al-Mujahideen terrorist safe house in Abu Ghurayb, west of Baghdad, Oct. 23. Captured during the raid was Ahmad Nimah Khudayyir Abbas (aka. Abu Shihab), a recently identified Jaysh al-Mujahideen lieutenant who oversaw the propaganda cell and who commanded several mortar and improvised explosive device cells. Abu Shihab, as the propaganda chief for the Jaysh al-Mujahideen media cell operating in the Baghdad area, initially recorded videos and digitized them to compact disc for distribution to various Jaysh al-Mujahideen and al Qaeda in Iraq terrorist groups... the videos would be used to recruit terrorists and foreign fighters, as well as to provide information on potential targets for other terrorists... Abu Shihab admitted to being involved in the swindling of money from Iraqi citizens. He, as well as other Jaysh al-Mujahideen terrorists, would represent a local Baghdad charity they set up specifically to funnel donations to Jaysh al-Mujahideen. One method of garnering donations from local citizens, according to Abu Shihab, was to stage pictures with children and young adults highlighting the 'charitys' name and logo in the background. The pictures would be shown to the Iraqis to solicit money supposedly in support of youth education and religious study; these donations would then be used to support terrorist operations in the Baghdad area." See also: "Terrorist-Linked Islamic Charities Responsible for Funneling More than $1 million in Aid to Central Iraq" Pakistani Convicted of Aiding Post-9/11 Al-Qaida Terror Plot in U.S.By Evan Kohlmann
Several weeks ago, I testified as an expert witness in my capacity as an independent counterterrorism analyst on behalf of federal prosecutors in the Uzair Paracha case. My expert testimony largely focused on the history, ideology, and leadership of Al-Qaida -- and particularly the role of Khalid Sheikh Mohammed (KSM) as Al-Qaida's chief "operational planner" behind major terrorist operations, including the September 11 suicide hijackings. For those interested further, I'm making available the transcript of Judge Sidney Stein's November 3 Daubert ruling validating me as an expert witness and qualifying me to testify in federal court. (Associated Press): "A Pakistani man who claimed he was pressured into a false confession was convicted Wednesday of trying to help an al-Qaida operative slip past U.S. immigration officials. A federal jury deliberated for about five hours before finding Uzair Paracha, 25, guilty of providing material support to terrorists and of other related charges. He could face up to 75 years in prison. The government accused Paracha of trying to help Majid Khan, an alleged al-Qaida member, sneak into the country using fake travel documents. Assistant U.S. Attorney Karl Metzner told the jury Paracha wanted to help Khan and "did so knowing that a terrorist was coming here for one purpose: to kill Americans." Paracha testified he was pressured into confession and only told investigators "what I thought they wanted to hear." His defense attorney Edward Wilford said the FBI denied his client food and sleep during hours of questioning -- "the ideal conditions to create a false confession." The man Paracha is accused of trying to help, Khan, is presumed to be in overseas jails. Paracha's father, Saifullah Paracha, is also being held as an enemy combatant in the U.S. detention center in Guantanamo Bay, Cuba. He has not been charged with a crime, but documents indicate he is suspected of laundering money for terrorists and associating with al-Qaida figures. He has repeatedly denied any knowing involvement in terrorism. Uzair Paracha grew up in Pakistan, but has lived off and on for many years in New York, where his family has several business ventures. After his detention in 2003, he told agents that Khan had tried to recruit him to al-Qaida and made clear that he wanted to come to the United States as part of a plot to attack Americans." Al-Qaida Denies Death of Zarqawi, Narrates Battle in MosulBy Evan Kohlmann
This morning--after days of silence on the issue--Al-Qaida's Committee in Iraq has issued a communique vigorously denying that its Jordanian commander Abu Musab al-Zarqawi was killed in a raid by U.S. military forces last week on a house in Mosul. According to the statement, the house did contain a number of Al-Qaida operatives and at least one of their wives. When the group realized that they were being surrounded by coalition troops, they allegedly telephoned local Al-Qaida commanders and prepared to lay a trap -- allegedly resulting in numerous casualties among their enemies. Separately, I have also made available on Globalterroralert.com a complete transcript of Abu Musab al-Zarqawi's November 18 audio recording on the subject of the recent Al-Qaida suicide bombings in Amman, Jordan. In his recording, Zarqawi took pains to warn Muslims to stay away from regional airports, military bases, embassies, and other potential terrorist targets in Jordan in the coming days -- suggesting that additional Al-Qaida suicide bomb attacks are quite likely. Lastly, I also want to draw attention to a recent blog entry by Aaron Weisburd over at Internet Haganah on the issue of foreign fighters in Iraq. Aaron's discovery should serve as a reminder of the diverse range of foreign militants who are arriving in Iraq seeking to join Abu Musab al-Zarqawi and Al-Qaida. More Mistakes by the Washington Post on the Foreign Fighters "Debate"By Evan Kohlmann
As much as I am fatigued by the seemingly endless "fisking" of misinformed articles on Iraq's foreign fighters, I cannot resist drawing attention to yet another recent Washington Post article which twists the research and conclusions of Anthony Cordesman at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS). Snuck into a long WP article on the sinking political prospects of Vice President Dick Cheney, journalists Michael Fletcher and James VandeHei also included this wandering snippet:
OK, so what's wrong with this passage? Well, first off, Cordesman doesn't base his study on "classified findings" by "U.S. intelligence agencies." Quite to the contrary, Cordesman bases his research almost exclusively on foreign intelligence reports produced by the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia--not the United States government. In fact, a number of U.S. intelligence and law enforcement sources I have spoken with have expressed *strong* dismay that Cordesman's research is being used to imply that there is no significant presence of foreign fighters in Iraq. One will recall my previous post on this subject when one such highly credible source compared those who complain of the U.S. government allegedly overinflating the presence of foreign fighters in Iraq to UFO conspiracy theorists. Besides mischaracterizing Cordesman's sources, they have also flubbed on his actual conclusions. Contrary to the tone of the Washington Post article, Cordesman has been rightly hesitant to offer any specific numbers as to the total number of foreign fighters present in Iraq. In another recent interview, Cordesman conceded he was not sure as to the total population of foreign fighters, but added, "If there are anything like 3,000 foreign fighters in Iraq, this poses a serious threat... In any case, the exact numbers are largely irrelevant. All it takes is enough volunteers to continue to support suicide attacks and violent bombings, and to seek to drive Iraqi Sunnis towards a major and intense civil war... many [foreign fighters] are likely to survive and be the source of violence and extremism in other countries." Though I often disagree with Tony on his research, I wholeheartedly concur on this point. The numbers are largely irrelevant, and only a small number of foreign fighters are necessary to upset regional geopolitical stability. Thus, no informed sources--not even Cordesman himself--seem to agree with the misbegotten conclusions formulated by the Washington Post's Fletcher and VandeHei. Nor should anyone take this post as some abstract defense of Dick Cheney on my part. Besides my general distaste for partisan politics, in the recent past, I've referred to V.P. Cheney's views on the Iraqi insurgency as self-delusional and "stunningly obtuse." I have also characterized the decision by the Bush administration to invade Iraq in 2003 as a "colossal strategic error." But, from an objective standpoint, it is fair to say that George Bush and Dick Cheney are not the only ones pushing a dubious agenda for Iraq through the mass media. *UPDATE* [11/23/05, 10:45am]: My respected colleague in Europe, Jean-Charles Brisard, has weighed in on the issue of foreign fighters in response to my recent posts. I asked JCB for permission to repost some of his comments, which I regard as highly relevant:
Ahmed Omar Abu Ali Convicted in Northern VirginiaBy Andrew Cochran
Ahmed Omar Abu Ali was convicted today in northern Virginia of joining Al Qaeda and plotting to assassinate President Bush. We covered the case from its start, including his ties to other cases and members of the LeT terrorist group: February 22: "Bush Assassination Plot by al Qaeda suspect?" - with the indictment - and "Defendant Ahmed Omar Abu Ali: Some Interesting Details" and "Ahmed Omar Abu Ali and the Visa Waiver Program" February 24: "Justice Department's Newest Abu Ali Filing" and "Clues to Abu Ali's Al-Qaida Contacts in Saudi Arabia" September 16: "More Terrorism Indictments Linked to "Virginia Jihad" Gang in Washington, DC, Area (Updated 9/17)" Jose Padilla's New Indictment Based, in Part, on USA PATRIOT Act (updated link to indictment)By Andrew Cochran
Alleged "dirty bomber" Jose Padilla was indicted on new charges that he conspired to "murder, kidnap and maim" people overseas, along with 4 others. The indictment links Padilla to another pre-existing indictment of an alleged terrorist cell, marking the first time that Padilla has been charged in connection with terrorism activities and not just as an "enemy combatant." The indictment alleges that Padilla traveled overseas filled out a terrorist training camp application and went to Afghanistan to so train. Another important development in this case is that it cites declassified foreign intelligence intercepts as a basis for the case, an action not available to terrorism case prosecutors until the passage of the USA PATRIOT Act in 2001. So this indictment provides the Bush Administration and PATRIOT Act supporters with additional justification for the reauthorization of the Act - see Dennis Lormel's and Michael Kraft's posts on that issue. The new indictment renders irrelevant a pending Supreme Court showdown over the enemy combatant issue, as Padilla will now be under the custody of the Justice Department for this case. You can read the full indictment here courtesy of the AP (Acrobat file), and you can read the DOJ press release on the indictment below. The indictment cites the defendants' support of Sheik Omar Abdel Rahman, leader of the Egyptian-based Islamic Jihad, who was convicted for his role in the 1993 WTC bombings (in a case led by current CIA leak case prosecutor Patrick Fitzgerald). Daveed Gartenstein-Ross posted about Rahman's attorney, Lynne Stewart, who was convicted for smuggling messages from him to his followers. I posted on October 3 about the Treasury Department's designation of seven of his followers, and I gave a brief history of the group. Terrorism Tainted Lashkar-e-Taiba Continues As A Major Player in Kashmir Earthquake Relief EffortBy Victor Comras
Numerous press and other reports from Kashmir indicate that Lashkar-e-Taiba, and its successor organization, the Jamaat-ul-Dawa charity have become major players in relief and reconstruction efforts for earthquake torn Kashmir. Both entities were founded, and are run by, Hafiz Sayeed. Lashkar-e-Taiba has been designated by the US Treasury and the UN Al Qaeda and Taliban Sanctions Committee as an al Qaeda support organization. Neither Treasury nor the UN have yet got around to designating Hafiz Sayeed or Jamaat-ul-Dawa. During the first days after the earthquake priority had to be given to moving relief and assistance quickly to quake victims. American and European soldiers and civilians worked side by side with Taiba members in this effort. But this situation is beginning to change as Lashkar-e-Taiba and Jamaat-ul-Dawa, along with other Jihadi groups in Kashmir increasingly turn their efforts again toward jihad and radical Islamic indoctrination and recruitment. Despite US and allied country contributions and efforts to win hearts and minds, Jamaat-ul-Dawa appears to be winning the highest praise and allegiance from local inhabitants. Ostensibly outlawed by the Pakistan government, Dawa has remained very active in the Kashmir region. The organization maintains well established social and humanitarian civilian support structures and is using them quite effectively to channel both assistance and their radical message. Their social centers, employment centers, madrassas and orphanages are reportedly again being used as Jihadi recruitment centers. And the Indian government is again complaining of a sharp rise in cross border terrorist incidents. Lashkar-e-Taibas was recently blamed for last months bombings in New Delhi. Jamaat-ul Dawa claims to be straining its financial resources to provide funding for its numerous earthquake related projects. But, the organization has also been successful in raising needed additional funds from outside sources. These funds reportedly come from local solicitation throughout Pakistan and in the Gulf and other Islamic countries. International organizations such as ICRC, WHO, UNICEF, WFP, UNHCR, Khalsa Aid, and Singapore Relief Agency are also reportedly working with Dawa. Jamaat leaders claim to have canvassed every town in Pakistan for funds to rebuild houses and mosques. They also have sought and received considerable aid from other countries. Dawa's Director told one interviewer that his organization had received aid from Singapore, Indonesia and Turkey. Indonesian and Turkish doctors are also working as volunteers at several Jamaat sponsored hospitals and clinics. Morocco actively fighting Al QaedaBy Olivier Guitta
While two of its citizens are currently held prisoners by the Zarqawi network in Iraq, Morocco is responding in kind to the terror master. Indeed, just today, Moroccan authorities revealed they have dismantled an Al Qaeda linked terrorist cell. Seventeen people were arrested at the beginning of the month. In a related case, three Moroccan citizens which were detained in Guantanamo and returned to Morocco in August 2004 were rearrested because they had helped a very dangerous Al Qaeda member enter the country. Morocco has been one of the most helpful Arab countries when it comes to intelligence information sharing with Western secret services. It is then no surprise that Al Qaeda targeted Casablanca in May 2003 with multiple suicide bombings against Western and Jewish targets killing 45, and now kidnapped two Moroccan diplomats. Al-Qaida Takes Casualties in Iraq -- But Apparently Not ZarqawiBy Evan Kohlmann
Despite recent reports to the contrary, Al-Qaida's Committee in Iraq has suffered numerous casualties during recent combat operations in northern and western Iraq -- including both native and foreign fighters. As I hinted at in my previous post on Iraq's foreign fighters, at least four commanders from the designated foreign terrorist organization Asbat al-Ansar in southern Lebanon have been killed during intense fighting near the western towns of Al-Qaim and Al-Karabilah. Another Yemeni national -- a veteran of multiple trips to Afghanistan -- was also slain before he could participate in an intended suicide bombing mission. Other, highly dubious reports have also surfaced in the media today suggesting that Abu Musab al-Zarqawi may have been himself killed in the northern Iraqi city of Mosul during a U.S. military raid on a suspected Al-Qaida hideout. Needless to say, such "tips" are often posted on fringe Arabic-language message forums on the Internet and are subsequently picked up by overeager news agencies -- but ultimately, most prove to be nothing more than unfounded rumor. Certainly, Al-Qaida doesn't seem to have been at all fazed by the reported Mosul raid. Not only has Al-Qaida issued nearly twenty new communiques in the last twenty four hours, but it also claimed credit for additional insurgent attacks on U.S. forces in Mosul. Apparently, the raid that "might have killed" Zarqawi did not even succeed in decapitating Al-Qaida's military command structure in the Mosul area. This Zarqawi report ultimately will be proven or disproven by the only sure way possible: forensic evidence collected on scene. But, at least for the moment--given what we do know--it seems fair to classify Zarqawi's would-be passing as extremely unlikely. See: (UPI) Reports of Zarqawi's death played down UPDATE: I've fixed the broken link to the Asbat al-Ansar PDF file UPDATE II [11/21/05, 9:30am EST]: An Al-Qaida supporter who claims to know the identities of those inside the destroyed house in Mosul has emphatically denied that Abu Musab al-Zarqawi was present in the structure or was killed during the raid. According to the source, a total of eight individuals were hiding in the residence at the time, including seven male insurgents and one of their wives. This group had not yet been involved in significant insurgent operations, but rather was preparing to carry out a "terrorist martyrdom mission." Furthermore, according to the source, the raid that led to the deaths of the would-be "suicide squad" was executed exclusively by U.S. military forces--and not Iraqi soldiers or policemen. New Zarqawi Translations/Video Available from Globalterroralert.comBy Evan Kohlmann
Despite a few delays due to ongoing projects I've been working on, I finally got a chance to post a round-up of recent significant statements and video clips released by Abu Musab al-Zarqawi's Al-Qaida faction in central Iraq. As I go through and clear out the growing backlog, I will also endeavor to make available other items of recent interest, including English excerpts from Abu Musab al-Zarqawi's audio recording released on Friday. Click to view files c/o Globalterroralert.com: See also: [CHART] "Zarqawi's Leadership Network in Iraq" Impediments to Counterterrorism Efforts in the United StatesBy Dennis Lormel
Why was the PATRIOT Act enacted? Why does the CIA operate secret detention and intelligence facilities? Why has the number of National Security Letters issued by the FBI increased significantly? The answer is simpleto preserve national security and prevent another 9/11. Apparently, select interest groups in the United States have either lost sight of this undisputable fact or have chosen to disregard it in deference to their parochial agendas. Unfortunately, over the past few weeks, considerable public attention focused on the PATRIOT Act, CIA secret facilities and FBI National Security Lettersdangerously casting each in the wrong light and threatening their continuity. Read More » |