Nonviolent, yet dangerous

By Zeyno Baran

Islam's ideological vanguard
International Herald Tribune, OCTOBER 30, 2005

Extremist Islamist organizations such as Al Qaeda have become well known in recent years for trying to accomplish their objectives through violence. Less well known, however, are the organizations devoted not to direct action but to ideological struggle. Of these, the most important is Hizb-ut-Tahrir (HT, or the Party of Liberation), a transnational movement that has served as radical Sunni Islamism's ideological vanguard.

HT is not a terrorist organization, but it can usefully be thought of as a conveyor belt for terrorists. It indoctrinates individuals with radical ideology, priming them for recruitment by more extreme organizations where they can take part in actual operations.

HT's exact size is difficult to confirm because the group is composed of secretive cells, but its membership is estimated to number in the hundreds in European countries, such as Denmark, and up to tens of thousands in Muslim countries, such as Uzbekistan.

To continue reading, please go to http://www.iht.com/articles/2005/10/30/opinion/edbaran.php

CONFEREES MEET SOON, NEED TO RESTORE CUTS IN COUNTERTERRORISM PROGAMS

By Michael B. Kraft

By Michael B. Kraft
Congressional Conferees are expected to meet soon on the Foreign Operations Appropriations Bill, currently scheduled for late this afternoon (Tuesday) and their actions will be another indication of whether Congress is willing to match Washington�s strong antiterrorism rhetoric with the money requested for key programs.
The House bill, passed in June, cut by about 9 per cent the Administration�s primary program to train foreign civilian counterterrorism and law enforcement officials to help fight terrorists terrorist abroad. The cuts in the Antiterrorism Assistance Training(ATA) program and the Terrorist Interdiction Program (TIP) came despite a theme repeatedly voiced by President Bush, that �there is only one course of action against them (the terrorists): to defeat them .�
The Senate Bill, passed in July, approved the Administration�s full requests for the State Department counterterrorism programs, including $133.5 for the ATA program and $7.5 million for the TIP program.

Growing Concerns Over Nigerian Crash

By Douglas Farah

There is growing evidence that the Oct. 22 airplane crash in Nigeria that killed all 117 people on board--including a U.S. Special Forces officer, top counter-terrorism officials of the Obasanjo government and senior regional security officers--was sabotage, not accident. Senior Nigerian officials are now saying publicly that there was an explosion in the air, before the aircraft, which had recently passed inspection, crashed to the earth. The lastest official statements can be found here.

At least one previously unknown group from the troubled Niger Delta region has taken credit for the downing, but the claim has been disavowed by other groups, and there seems to be little indication that any are legitimate. There are also conflicting reports over whether the black box has been found. Numerous international teams will be arriving in coming days to comb over the remains of the wreakage, but it appears the site was not properly secured in the days immediately after the crash, so it is unclear if anything of interest has been disturbed, removed or destroyed. But the blowing up of a commercial airliner would mark a dangerous new phase of the unrest in Nigeria, whether it be by international criminal syndicates, Islamic terrorist operating in the country, disgruntled armed groups in the oil-rich Delta region or any combination of the above. Go here to read more.

The project of the Muslim Brotherhood to conquer the world

By Olivier Guitta

According to Sylvain Besson, a Swiss investigative reporter, Swiss authorities found a fascinating document when they entered Yusuf Nada�s villa in November 2001. Nada is by the way viewed as one of the bankrollers of Al Qaeda; he is the head of the Al Taqwa Bank. The document seized entitled �The Project� is a fourteen page leaflet dated December 1982 calling for the Muslim Brotherhood�s conquest of the world.
It is a detailed roadmap to attain this objective. The Muslim Brothers must infiltrate existing institutions rather than create their own. It calls for a guerilla war against Israel in the Palestinian territories and support to diverse armed Muslim groups from Bosnia to the Philippines. Swiss investigators confirm that the Project is the proof of the Muslim Brotherhood�s role in supporting and inspiring the worldwide jihad. Also a Western official who studied closely the Project assesses that it is the biggest threat for European democracies in the next ten years. He affirms that Europe will witness the birth of a parallel Muslim society, a parallel Muslim Parliament and so forth. Just as a side for most European secret services, Tariq Ramadan, the new adviser to British Prime Minister Blair on terrorism, is the unofficial head of the Muslim Brotherhood in Europe. It looks like the infiltration is working fine!

Saddam: where is the money?

By Olivier Guitta

The French press has been focusing in the past few weeks on Saddam Hussein�s villas on the French Riviera. Indeed Saddam owned two estates one in Cannes valued at over $14 million and the other one in Grasse valued at $8 million. These properties were purchased in 1982 by a Liechtenstein company, owned by a close associate of the Iraqi despot. Saddam must have liked the region that he visited along with then French Prime Minister Jacques Chirac in 1975: Saddam�s only trip to the West. Saddam never set foot in the villas though. The Iraqi state is trying to get official ownership of the two properties but for the time being the UN is administrating the frozen assets of the Liechtenstein company. This is just the tip of the iceberg: indeed Saddam�s assets have been estimated at between $8 billion and $20 billion. Almost two years after Saddam�s arrest, what�s taking so long for this money to go back to the Iraqi people?

Bombings in New Delhi Kill Dozens - Walid Phares Comments (Updated 10/30)

By Andrew Cochran

UPDATED October 30 at 11:52 am ET. AP story: Near-simultaneous explosions in three locations in New Delhi Saturday night, killing at least 61 people, hours after India and Pakistan began talks on opening border in disputed Kashmir to aid earthquake victims - Time Magazine has eyewitness account - Walid Phares reports: "My monitoring of the chat rooms over the past few hours indicate that the Jihadists-Salafists are celebrating. High possibility that a Jihadi (either local Cashemire or al Qaida like) group will take responsibility in 24-48 hours...This note is sent with caution, as other leads are also followed. The Jihadi theory is the highest, but we do not rule out mafia related causes." Obscure Kashmir group claims responsibility, but "security experts see the hand of Lashkar-e-Taiba (Force of the Pure) behind the attacks..." See this post about LeT in the Maryland-Virginia region, with links to al profile and other CTB posts. Indian police started making arrests in New Delhi Sunday - at least 22 detained. Indian troops killed militants in Kashmir recently, including "battalion commander of the hardline group Harkat-ul-Jehad Islami," according to police. Abdul Hamid, a commander of the Hizb-ul Mujahideen group, was also killed in a separate incident recently. On October 11, the US embassy in New Delhi warned American citizens of a "possible threat" of terrorist attacks, including suicide car bombings, against US interests in India, particularly "Hyderabad, New Delhi, Mumbai and Kolkata." You can see extensive list of stories with links here through Google News.

Private Investigation Leads to Swiss Cyberterror Arrests

By Evan Kohlmann

As a result of a month-long private cyberterrorism investigation conducted by Globalterroralert.com and reported on exclusively in the Swiss journal Die Weltwoche, Swiss police in Geneva have announced the arrest of two North Africans in connection with the fraudulent use of a University of Geneva computer lab in disseminating jihad propaganda videos and "inciting racial hatred."  Neither of the unnamed pair--a 27-year old Moroccan and a 41-year old Algerian--were legal citizens of Switzerland.  According a statement from Swiss police, "these individuals were observed using computers at the University of Geneva, over several months, for websurfing and visiting... violent extremist sites."  In order to gain access to the computer lab, the two men had stolen the access code of a former student who had inadvertently left theirs available on a public access terminal.  Though the two men have denied uploading any material and have insisted that they were only "curious", digital forensic evidence archived by Globalterroralert.com indicates that, over the space of at least three months, a user in the same computer lab at the University of Geneva uploaded thousands of megabytes of Al-Qaida-related multimedia to various free Internet servers for other militants around the world to download--including recent audio recordings from Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, the testimony of a Saudi Al-Qaida member who escaped from Bagram Airbase in Afghanistan, and the latest video of UBL deputy Ayman al-Zawahiri concerning the October 8 earthquake in Pakistan.

This case should serve as an example of how silently gathering information on cyberterrorists who choose to "camp out" in "Western cyberspace" and using that information to track and detain human operators can often be a more efficient approach than merely shutting down their prolific websites.  Just as the Internet can be a "Wild West" for savvy cyberterrorists like the notorious Irhaby 007, it can also be a "Venus Fly Trap" for other, less-sophisticated online personalities.

George Galloway Headed for Legal Trouble?

By Daveed Gartenstein-Ross

Andy Cochran has previously written about British MP George Galloway's dual career as politician and terrorist cheerleader. For example, in an early June al-Jazeera appearance, Galloway declared: "Bush, and Blair, and the prime minister of Japan, and Berlusconi, these people are criminals, and they are responsible for mass murder in the world, for the war, and for the occupation, through their support for Israel, and through their support for a globalized capitalist economic system, which is the biggest killer the world has ever known. It has killed far more people than Adolph Hitler. . . . They are the real rogue states breaking international law, invading other people's countries, killing their children in the name of anti-terrorism, when in fact, all they're achieving is to make more terrorists in the world, not less, to make the world more dangerous, rather than less."

Galloway was previously called to testify before the Senate's Permanent Subcommittee on Investigations (PSI), where he angrily denied reports that he had profited from the corruption that permeated the UN's oil-for-food program. But now Galloway may be headed for some legal trouble. Days after the PSI tracked a $150,000 oil-for-food payment to Galloway's estranged Palestinian wife, Amina Naji Abu Zayyad, a UN inquiry led by Paul Volcker has tracked an earlier series of transfers to her totalling $120,000. This is another blow for Galloway, who already faces a parliamentary ethics inquiry and possible criminal charges for making "false or misleading" statements in his May Senate testimony. The Times of London explains the Volcker report's findings:

Allocations of more than 18 million barrels went to Mr Galloway directly or indirectly through his Jordanian friend Fawaz Zureikat, the report says. Mr Zureikat paid $434,000 to [Galloway's anti-sanctions campaign] the Mariam Appeal. The Senate Permanent Subcommittee on Investigations alleged this week that Mr Zureikat had also transferred $150,000 to Mr Galloway's wife on August 3, 2000. The Volcker inquiry tracks additional payments to Ms Abu Zayyad from a British-Iraqi businessman and prominent supporter of the Conservative Party named Burhan Chalabi. The report says that Mr Chalabi received an allocation of four million barrels of oil from Iraq on December 17, 1999, for "Galloway's campaign". Delta Services, Mr Chalabi's company, received $472,228 in commission payments on the allocation from the Fortum oil company. "Soon after each deposit, a series of payments totalling over $120,000 were transferred from the Delta Services bank account to the bank account of . . . Mr Galloway's wife," the report concludes.

Senator Norm Coleman's comment: "The [UN] Independent Inquiry Committee relied on parallel information and documents and arrived at the same conclusions we did: Galloway solicited financial assistance from the Hussein regime, his wife received hundreds of thousands of dollars in connection with oil-for-food deals, and his political arm also received hundreds of thousands of dollars."

If these reports pan out, it will be satisfying to see a toad like Galloway held accountable.

New State Department Official on Bioterrorism, Threats from S.E. Asia & Latin America, and on Saudis (updated)

By Andrew Cochran

The new State Department Coordinator for Counterterrorism, Henry Crumpton, testified today before the terrorism subcommittee of the House International Relations Committee, chaired by Rep. Ed Royce. Mr. Crumpton has a long career in counterterrorism at the CIA and recently assumed the position held by Cofer Black until late last year. Mr. Crumpton made some news in response to Congressmen's questions: (1) When asked about current but underplayed threats, he specifically mentioned bioterrorism, more so than nuclear WMD; (2) he is "frightened" by Southeast Asian terrorist groups' efforts to obtain and use WMDs; (3) he is very concerned with Hamas and Hezbollah efforts in Latin America and the Caribbean, especially Hezbollah's long-term presence in the tri-border region, and called Hezbollah "truly a global terrorist network;" (4) Wahabbist propaganda exported from Saudi Arabia remains a serious problem, a subject addressed on this blog often; and (5) he became, to the best of my knowledge, the first U.S. senior CT official to state that the Saudi government has finally opened a long-promised financial intelligence unit to track financial transactions (he reiterated its existence to me after the hearing). At a Senate Banking Committee hearing on July 13, another senior State Department official said (quoting the unofficial transcript), "They are also continuing to work to create a fully operational financial intelligence unit, and Saudi officials say this unit could be up and running in the next two to three months." The Saudis promised to open a FIU in 2002, and their lack of action has been a sore point between the governments and on Capitol Hill. (UPDATE: Treasury Department informs me that the Saudis officially opened it on Sept. 10.) Mr. Crumpton expressed "disppointment" that the Saudis still haven't created the proper oversight commission for its charities (see Victor Comras's post).

Saudi Charities Report Donations Off Sharply This Ramadan Season

By Victor Comras

Saudi Charities have reported a significant decline in contributions this Ramadan season, particularly from overseas. The World Assembly of Muslim Youth (WAMY) reported that its charitable receipts had fallen by some 30 percent compared to pre 9/11. WAMY�s director, Saleh Al-Wohaibi told Arab journalists that the organization had experienced a particularly sharp decline in the United States. This is due, he said, to the �hostile treatment� it was receiving from American journalists. Dr. Al-Wohaibi also complained that WAMY officials were being harassed when visiting the United States. �That is why we do not want our people to go there,� he said. � Officials are held up at airports and interrogated. The situation both for WAMY and other charitable organizations is not as good as it once was.� Efforts are now underway, he said, to respond to this negative image with a well financed public relations campaign of their own. �We are conducting a public relations campaign through the US media,� he said. �With the help of some Saudi organizations, we have established Friends of Charity Association (FOCA), which is a lobbying group in Washington. It�s doing a good job in trying to reach out to government officials, congressmen and the media as part of our effort to explain our activities and remove misconceptions.�

FOCA�s membership, far from being broadly based, represents only a handful of Wahabi sponsored umbrella charities including the Muslim World League, International Islamic Relief Organisation, World Assembly of Muslim Youth, Al Haramain Islamic Foundation, and Al Muntada, Makkah Al-Mukarrama Charity Foundation. These charities have all been linked to al Qaeda and Hamas terrorism financing concerns and one of them, Al Haramain Islamic Foundation was designated as an Al Qaeda terrorism financing organization by the U.S. Treasury Department and the UN Al Qaeda and Taliban Sanctions Committee.

FOCA has been very active placing articles on the Internet and in Muslim community directed media outlets in defense of these charities. This included strident defense pieces on behalf of al Haramain and its other constituent charities. But, FOCA continues to lack credibility with mainstream media outlets or with Congress. Last summer Treasury Under Secretary Stuart Levey reiterated to the Senate Banking Committee his continuing concerns with he activities of the International Islamic Relief Organization (IIRO), the World Association of Muslim Youth (WAMY), and the Muslim World League (MWL), all FOCA constituent charities. He referred, in particular to the continuing lack of Saudi government oversight over these charities� activities. Saudi Arabia had specifically excluded these charities from its own promised new Charities Oversight Commission. The first step toward rehabilitating any of these charities, in American eyes, has to be responsible management, transparency and effective monitoring and oversight. It is time for Saudi Arabia, and the umbrella Islamic charities it supports, to adopt the measures outlined by FATF in its Charity Oversight Best Practices Paper.

UN Still Struggling With Comprehensive Anti Terrorism Convention

By Victor Comras

The behind the scenes negotiations at the United Nations on a new comprehensive anti-terrorism convention are coming to a close with little result. The working group set up by the General Assembly�s Sixth (Legal) Committee October 3rd to hammer out continuing differences submitted its report on October 21st. Unable to develop new recommendations it referred bracketed texts to the Sixth Committee for further last ditch consultations in the hope that some compromises might be reached. The Working Group provided two �non papers� proposing possible solutions for consideration. The key remaining differences deal with (1) language differences for a legal definition of terrorism, (2) the relationship between terrorism and anti-colonial and national liberation movements; and (3) the activities of State�s armed forces in armed conflicts and in exercise of their official duties.

A number of countries, including members of the Organization of the Islamic Conference (OIC) and the Non Aligned Group, have drawn a link between the Article 2 definition of Terrorism and Article 18 which now exempts from Convention coverage the activities of armed forces during an armed conflict. While fighting hard to exempt so-called �freedom fighters� from the proposed terrorism definition, they insist that Government authorized military action be included. They want to change the current draft language which defers such matters to international humanitarian law and other conventions specifically covering armed conflicts. As now written draft article 18 states: �The activities of armed forces during an armed conflict, as those terms are understood under international humanitarian law, which are governed by that law, are not governed by the present convention.� The draft also says that �activities undertaken by the military forces of a State in the exercise of their official duties, inasmuch as they are governed by other rules of international law, are not governed by the present Convention.�

The most recent compromise proposal would have article 18 simply clarify that nothing in the convention makes acts unlawful which are governed by international humanitarian law and not unlawful under that law. A new proposed Preambular paragraph has also been suggested to substitute for earlier proposed changes to Article 2�s current terrorism definition. The new paragraph would re-affirm the right to self determination of peoples in accordance with the United Nations Charter and the Declaration of Principles of International Law Concerning Friendly Relations and Cooperation among States: It reads"Reaffirming the Right to self-determination of peoples in accordance with the Charter of the United Nations and the Declaration on Principles of International Law concerning Friendly Relations and Cooperation among States in accordance with the Charter of the United Nations."

It is still not clear that either side can support either proposed language change. Hard negotiations are expected during these few remaining days, and a positive outcome is truly in doubt.

Iraq Vote & Triple Bombings: The Terrorists' Strategic Failures (Updated 10/27)

By Andrew Cochran

UPDATE 10/27 for UK Guardian article: "This rift in the insurgency has already gone far beyond angry words. Clashes erupted between al-Qaida fighters and Iraqi mujahideen cells after al-Qaida killed a group of Iraqi insurgents who they claimed were spying for the Americans."

The count is finished, and Iraqis voted to ratify the constitution, with the three Sunni-dominated provinces failing to vote in sufficient negative numbers. The terrorists failed to stop the voting and failed to persuade Sunnis in Ninevah to abandon the political process and follow their murderous road. Yesterday's triple bombings, now apparently claimed by Al Qaida in Iraq, should also be seen as another proof of their strategic failure to date. It was a pathetic attempt, perhaps to kidnap journalists and use them as bait for a trade, as well as to energize the journalistic community to report on the "failure" of the Iraqi-U.S. coalition (see Ranting Profs & Fourth Rail posts). Such an amateurish plot, which resulted in a remarkably light loss of life despite the use of three massive bombs, highlights the weak position now facing Al-Zarqawi and other terrorists in Iraq and their investors in Syria, Iran, and elsewhere. You have to ask yourself, "Is this the best they can do? Is this their best shot after the elections?" The Iraq terrorists have no shred of legitimacy as a political force for Sunnis, having killed civilians with their bombs and driven the largest Sunni political party into endorsing the constitution. Walid Phares made the point on MSNBC today that at least many of the Sunnis have now bought into the political process. At this point, the terrorists are a more active and dangerous version of the American 1920s Mafia gang or today's MS-13 - they have no political or military base upon which to build a "caliphate." If the Shiite-Kurdish majority continues to provide incentives for Sunni political participation and Iraqi security forces continue to improve and grow, the terrorists will see no daylight. No doubt they will find some comfort in the anti-American propaganda of the Arab press and in the negativism of the Western pessimists...that is a subject for a future post (especially after President Bush specifically mentioned this point today). Today is a day to celebrate yet another milestone towards a peaceful and democratic Iraq, something that seemed difficult for some to imagine even a short time ago.

Nigeria's Growing Terrorist and Oil Woes

By Douglas Farah

There are alarming signs that Nigeria, West Africa's leader, one of the world's leading oil producers and is on the brink of chaos. In an unusual admission for a tight-lipped government, a senior security official publicly acknowledged the presence of up to 10,000 illegal armed men in a variety of militias in the Niger Delta, where almost all of Nigeria's 2.5 million barrels a day of light, sweet crude, are pumped. Many of these groups, according to the director general of the National Intelligence Agency, have ties to al Qaeda linked groups such as the Algerian Salafist Group for Preaching and Combat (GSPC). The full interview with Uche Okeke by Nigeria's Vanguard newspaper can be read here.

Okeke also stated a truth that is often forgotten in dealing with West Africa's ties to radical Islamist terrorist: Nigeria was listed by Osama bin Laden as on of the five "apostate states" ripe for Islamic revolution, and the only one of the five not to suffer a major al Qaeda attack. Nigerians have shown up in Afghanistan, Iraq, and with the GSPC. Both wahhbis from Saudi Arabia and Shi'ites from Iran are vying to set up radical mosques in the north. Sharia law is already the law of the land in almost one-third of the country.

Nigeria's situation is complicated and delicate. A weak elected government, trying to root out the legacy of decades of ruthless and blindingly corrupt military rule while at the same time balancing the needs of an increasingly militant Islamic majority in the north, Christians in the south, ethnic unrest and entrenched political bosses who steal far more than the state takes in. Weapons in the Niger Delta, including sophisticated and new weapons from the former Soviet bloc are, are cheap and easily available. Go here for the complete blog.

Mike German Responds to "Spare No Resource"

By Daveed Gartenstein-Ross

My latest article in the Daily Standard, "Spare No Resource," was in large part a response to a San Francisco Chronicle op-ed by Mike German.  German's op-ed argued that racial profiling is an ineffective tool in anti-terror policing, and used statistical analysis to try to prove this point.  In response, I critiqued German's use of statistics and pointed out that law enforcement can use a number of factors (not just race but also age, gender, dress and behavior) to identify the most likely terrorists.  I made the intuitive argument that "[i]f our last line of defense is searching bags before riders enter the subway, our searches should target the passengers who are most likely to be terrorists.  Only through intelligently targeted searches can we have a reasonable chance of disrupting terrorist plots."

I'm on friendly terms with German, and told him that if he wanted to write a response, I'd post it on the Counterterrorism Blog.  Here's German's response to my article, along with my reaction:

The sub-title of Daveed Gartenstein-Ross�s Weekly Standard article �Spare No Resources� promises much:  �Terrorist profiling is the most efficient, and effective, method of anti-terrorism policing.�  Unfortunately, Gartenstein-Ross never makes any attempt to support this statement with facts, and instead only re-states his thesis and declares it �intuitive and hard to refute.�  If only that were true.

The difficulty with terrorism is that much of it is counter-intuitive.  In reading Gartenstein-Ross�s article I was reminded of a scene from the Steve Martin comedy The Jerk, in which an assassin tries to shoot Martin with a high-powered rifle.  The initial shots miss Martin and hit some oil cans stacked behind him.  �These cans,� Martin yells, �he hates these cans!� �The subways,� Gartenstein-Ross yells, �jihadists hate the subways!�  Just like Martin, Gartenstein-Ross mistakes the result of the enemy�s action for the objective.  The objective of a terrorist campaign is not to commit an act of terrorism, but rather to force the government they attack into adopting a defensive position that is both expensive (because it is inefficient) and demoralizing (because it is ineffective).

Suspicious Package Destroyed Near U.S. Capitol - No Other Explosion (updated)

By Andrew Cochran

Last update at 1:17pm ET: Suspicious package in car (rented 2005 Impala) destroyed with no other explosion after perceived threat closes immediate area west of U.S. Capitol (1st & Constitution Avenue, NW) - Capitol Police say that two men approached them and made suspicious statements to effect that they had explosives in car, leading to law enforcement action - two men being questioned - several buildings nearby (including mine) were evacuated. Wide perimeter near Senate side of Capitol closed, but no Congressional offices evacuated. NBC News reports that one of the men flew from Mexico and had acted suspiciously on the flight - and that driver has history of mental problems, leading law enforcement to "all but dismiss this as serious threat."

U.N. Hariri Report Doesn't Finger Assad - Walid Phares to Comment on TV

By Andrew Cochran

The special investigation begun by the U.N. Security Council, on the terrorist attack on February 14 this year that killed former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri and others, has been completed and published. The report doesn't finger Syrian President Assad or his closest aides, but concludes that "there is converging evidence pointing at both Lebanese and Syrian involvement in this terrorist act." The investigation found that the assassination was planned well in advance: "It is the Commission�s view that the assassination of 14 February 2005 was carried out by a group with an extensive organization and considerable resources and capabilities. The crime had been prepared over the course of several months." Walid Phares will appear on TV throughout the day for his comments. You can download the report and a transmittal letter from Kofi Annan to the President of the U.N. Security Council here:
Download FinalMehlisreport.doc
Download SGltrSCreMehlisReport.201005.doc

Money Laundering: Two Bank Cases - Key PATRIOT Act Regulations Not Issued - PATRIOT Act Data System Inoperative

By Andrew Cochran

In the past week, U.S. banking regulators announced two important actions against major banks for weaknesses in anti-money laundering (AML) programs required under the Bank Secrecy Act, as amended by the USA PATRIOT Act. First, the U.S. branch of Deutsche Bank agreed to cure deficiencies in its AML program, specifically in the management and oversight of its correspondent banking and funds transfer clearing operations (no actual instances of money laundering were alleged or found). Correspondent banking, through which a foreign bank and domestic bank handle each other's banking relationships in their respective jurisdictions, has been a subject of intense debate and investigation due to the inherent potential for misuse as a vehicle for money laundering and terrorist financing. The U.S. Senate Permanent Subcommittee on Investigations issued a report in 2001 on the issue and concluding that "The staff's investigation led them to conclude that allowing high-risk foreign banks and their criminal clients access to U.S. correspondent bank accounts, among several negative impacts, 'facilitates crime' and 'undermines the U.S. financial system.'" One Arab-based paper wrote last week, "Investigators have found that some large banks that engage in correspondent banking, including several US institutions, have become conduits for illicit foreign money and unwittingly aided drug trafficking, fraud and other crimes." Second, federal regulators signed a consent order with another major bank, KeyBank, over weaknesses in its AML program. Although the order doesn't allege actual money laundering, it makes it clear that KeyBank's board of directors had not exercised sufficient responsibility over a wide range of AML systems and issues (the board is mentioned over 30 times).

The Deutsche Bank case comes amid continued delays in the issuance of final regulations governing correspondent banking, which were mandated under Section 312 of the PATRIOT Act.

State Department's Management of "J Visa" Program Enables Terrorist Infiltration

By Michael Cutler

Today we will focus on a GAO report that delves into the "J Visa" Program. For those of you who are unfamiliar with the alphabet soup of visas, the J visa is one that is issued by the United States Department of State for exchange visitors. The concept of the J visa, at least in theory is actually a good one. In the interest of furthering international understanding we permit young people to come to the United States to engage in exchange programs so that the exchange of visitors by participating countries helps to break down barriers between the participating countries. Certainly this should, in theory, help improve international relations, a goal that is to be considered highly valuable, especially in the troubled world in which we live. However, (there is that word again!), according to the GAO report, the State Department is failing to monitor this program. There are about 280,000 aliens who enter the United States each year under the auspices of this visa category and this report notes that in the last four years, State Department officials visited only 8 travel or trainee sponsors out of some 200+ summer work locations to make certain that things were as claimed by these sponsors. In fact, one of the sponsors turned out to be a topless bar! For your convenience, you can download a copy of this report below. The State Department agrees that there have been weaknesses in the way that it has carried out its oversight responsibilities for the last ten years.

The disturbing issues here go in two directions. First of all, the point to this program is to have the foreign students or other cultural exchange visitors return to their home counties with a positive attitude about our country. Secondly, this is yet another visa category that provides aliens with the opportunity to gain entry into the United States. Terrorists who would want to attack us need to somehow gain entry into the United States.
Download Jvisastudy.pdf

New Daily Standard Article: "Spare No Resource"

By Daveed Gartenstein-Ross

My new article, "Spare No Resource," was posted today at the Daily Standard.  Although New York City police decided last week to scale back the increased security that accompanied the most recent subway terrorism scare, the fact remains that the terrorists would like to strike our mass transit system, and that this system remains vulnerable.  I took the title of my article from Mayor Bloomberg's statement at the October 6 press conference about his determination to safeguard the subways:  "We will spare no resource; we will spare no expense."  I found this statement unintentionally revealing, since New York City could spare resources, spare expenses, and make passengers safer if it used terrorist profiling.

A few key paragraphs from the piece:

The argument for profiling is simple and compelling:  If our last line of defense is searching bags before riders enter the subway, our searches should target the passengers who are most likely to be terrorists.  Only through intelligently targeted searches can we have a reasonable chance of disrupting terrorist plots.  This means we should try to figure out how terrorists look and act -- and that law enforcement should be trained in taking these factors into account.

Because this case is intuitive and hard to refute (why would we treat, say, U.S. senators the same as Mohamed Atta?), the opponents of profiling seemingly turn to autopilot when arguing against it, throwing out every claim that could possibly support their position with little critical filter.  [Former FBI agent Mike German, who wrote a San Francisco Chronicle op-ed defending New York's random searches] does this when he argues that completely random bag searches are just as effective as profiling.  And his case begins with the creation of a false dichotomy, in which one option is the most awkward kind of profiling done solely on the basis of race, and the other option is random searches.

Thankfully, other choices lie along the spectrum between these two extremes.  A truly effective system of terrorist profiling would not look solely at a person's race in determining whether extra scrutiny is justified.  Rather, a range of factors--including gender, age, dress, and behavior--can be used to identify the most likely terrorists.  Surely there can be no argument against considering these non-racial factors. . . .

The bottom line is that one cannot sustain the argument that purely random bag searches are as effective as training police to identify potential terrorists by taking into account the wealth of information we have on how they look and act. . . .  We can continue with the present "spare no resource" approach in times of crisis.  But we'd spare more resources, and be safer for it, if terrorist profiling were one of the tools in our anti-terror arsenal.

Read the whole article here.

New American GI Muslim Abuse Allegations - Watch the Arab Media Spin This One (updated 10/20)

By Andrew Cochran

There are allegations out of Afghanistan, made by a cameraman working for an Australian network and embedded with the 82nd Airborne, that U.S. soldiers burned the bodies of two killed Taliban fighters and then broadcast "an inflammatory message over loudspeakers to taunt and bait the enemy." Both the alleged burning and the alleged taunting would be severe violations of military rules and grounds for tough disciplinary action. The U.S. Army Criminal Investigation Division has initiated an investigation: "This command takes all allegations of misconduct or inappropriate behavior seriously and has directed an investigation into circumstances surrounding this allegation. If the allegation is substantiated, the appropriate course of action under the Uniform Code of Military Justice and corrective action will be taken." CENTCOM has issued a statement condemning any such action: "Under no circumstances does U.S. Central Command condone the desecration, abuse or inappropriate treatment of enemy combatants. Such actions are contrary to U.S. policy as well as the Geneva Convention." The video which purports to show the event has not been seen on American TV as of this posting (UPDATE 10/20: NBC News has aired portions, and it appears as it was described by the cameraman, complete with the English language version of the taunts). I have trouble believing that members of the 82nd Airborne are stupid enough to put themselves, their buddies, and all American soldiers in harm's way like this, but we'll see (UPDATE 10/20: It looks pretty stupid). Regardless, I'm sure the Arab media will play it up and continue to ignore or minimize both Saddam Hussein's cruelties during his reign of terror and the chilling stories of murder and intimidation perpetrated in the name of the caliphate by Al-Zarqawi and his thugs.

Londonistan is alive and kicking

By Olivier Guitta

Recently, I had the opportunity to ask Iain Duncan Smith, British M.P. and former leader of the Conservative Party (2001-2003), about the appointment of Swiss Islamist Tariq Ramadan to the Blair�s taskforce on fighting extremism. He went blank and had no idea whatsoever what I was talking about. After the London bombings, this is highly worrisome and just confirms that our British friends still don�t get it or sometimes don�t know anything about our common enemy- Islamism. Tariq Ramadan is a case in point as I show in this article.
Here is an excerpt:
Regarding his views on terrorism, Ramadan wants us to believe that he forcefully called on Muslims to condemn the September 11 attacks. But consider that in an interview on September 22, 2001, Ramadan explained with his usual gifted vagueness that he couldn't say for sure that Bin Laden was behind the attacks. He then asked the question: "who profits from the crime?" and answered that no Arab or Muslim cause would be better off. This is exactly the argument of Islamists who accused Israel and the Jews of masterminding the September 11 atrocities. In a 2004 interview with French newsmagazine Le Point, Ramadan evoked what he called the "interventions of New York, Bali or Madrid." So, September 11 was not a terrorist attack, it was rather just an "intervention." Of course, nowhere in this interview did Ramadan condemn terrorism. Also when recently asked by an Italian magazine if car bombings against US forces in Iraq were justified, he was quoted as saying: "Iraq was colonized by the Americans. Resistance against the army is just."
Some troubling allegations can be found in a lawsuit filed by the victims of the September 11 attacks: Ramadan greatly influenced Djamel Beghal, a French citizen arrested for plotting to bomb the US Embassy in Paris. According to Sylvain Besson from the Swiss daily Le Temps, the court papers show that Djamel Beghal "was in charge of preparing Tariq Ramadan's speeches." Ramadan has always answered that he never met Beghal and refused to comment after Besson left numerous messages at his home. Also, Beghal was living in Leicester in 1998, while (surprise!) Ramadan was studying at the Islamic university of Leicester. Lastly, regarding Ramadan's terrorist links, Daniel Pipes, the renowned Middle East expert, reported that he met a senior Department of Homeland Security official a few weeks ago who looked him hard in the eyes and assured him, "The evidence we have is damning."

Authenticity of Alleged Zawahiri Letter Increasingly Questioned

By Daveed Gartenstein-Ross

Earlier, I blogged about a letter allegedly written by Ayman al-Zawahiri to Abu Musab al-Zarqawi that, if genuine, demonstrates the importance of Iraq to al-Qaeda's jihad.  However, doubts in Washington are mounting about the letter's authenticity.  Eli Lake reports in the New York Sun:

[O]ver the weekend, Al Qaeda in Iraq issued a statement from Mr. Zarqawi claiming the letter was a fake.  "Everything in the letter attributed to Ayman al-Zawahiri is false," the statement said.  Some analysts inside and outside the administration now are also taking this line.

"This does not read like an Islamist text," a terrorism analyst at the conservative-leaning Hudson Institute, Chris Brown, said in an interview yesterday.  "It only uses the word 'infidel' twice and makes five references to 'crusaders.'  They are talking about the U.S. military in Iraq, which all Islamists, including Al Qaeda, always refer to as the crusader nations, but in this letter Zawahiri refers to America almost exclusively."  Mr. Brown added that the letter also uses references to both the Christian and Muslim calendar:  "We know that Al Qaeda leaders will use the Islamic calendar in private correspondence and the Christian calendar for statements meant to be public, but never both in an internal communication."

Mr. Brown also notes that the letter, which was dated two days after the London underground bombings, makes no mention of the attacks carried out by Al Qaeda's minions in Britain.  "It's quite amazing that they went to great lengths to assure that Al Qaeda would get credit for the subway bombings and they would make no mention of it in this letter, especially considering that Zarqawi is also commander of all operations in Europe," he said. . . .

Two sources inside the Bush administration told The New York Sun yesterday that some lower-level analysts share some of the concerns Mr. Brown raised, but that at the highest levels of the government there is no questioning the letter's authenticity.  "Some of us think there is a possibility that a foreign intelligence service may have faked it," one administration source said.

On the other hand, the ubiquitous Peter Bergen believes that the letter is genuine:  "One of Zawahiri's preoccupations is, 'We don't have the masses on our side.'  In his book, 'Knights Under the Prophet's Banner,' he says two causes the masses can get behind are Palestine and the United States' intervention.  These themes are in the letter."

The investigation of the letter's authenticity is worth following for two reasons.  First, the letter is significant if genuine because it suggests that Iraq is now of central import to al-Qaeda.  Second, if the letter was faked, that will deal another blow to the credibility of U.S. intelligence.  When director of national intelligence John Negroponte made the letter public, it was accompanied by a press release stating:  "The United States Government has the highest confidence in the letter's authenticity."  It won't look good if it turns out that they were duped by a forgery.

FATF Paris Summit Underscores Continuing AML and Terrorist Financing Problems

By Victor Comras

FATF�s Fall 2005 summit meeting in Paris, October 12-14th brought together some 400 delegates from 32 jurisdictions and 16 international organizations to review the progress made in combating money laundering and terrorism financing. Highlights of the meeting included the removal of Nauru from FATF�s Non Cooperating Country List, review of the results of FATF�s evaluation of the anti-money laundering and counter-terrorist financing systems in Australia, Italy and Switzerland; and the launching of a new FATF project, in partnership with the Asia/Pacific Group on Money Laundering, to explore the symbiotic relationship among corruption, money laundering and terrorist financing.

FATF removed Nauru, the tiny Pacific Island that had become the favorite haven for Russian money laundering, from its Non Cooperating Country list after the Island took action to abolish its 400 shell banks. This leaves only two countries � Myanmar (Burma) and Nigeria on the list. Originally envisaged as a prime tool for pressing for greater international anti-money laundering action, the list has, overtime become next to meaningless. The fact that a country is not on the list, or has been removed there from, seems to have little to do any more with whether or not such countries are effectively combating terrorism financing or money laundering. If that were the case, the fact that only Myanmar (Burma) and Nigeria were still on the list would allow us all to sleep more soundly. The program began in February 2000 when FATF published 25 criteria identifying detrimental rules and practices that impeded international cooperation in the fight against money laundering. By September 2001 FATF had identified 23 Non-Cooperating jurisdictions. No additional jurisdictions were reviewed since that time. Over the years this list was whittled down to just a few countries as countries acted to amend their laws and rid themselves of the offensive counter-AML measures. But, this became more of a paper exercise than a realistic assessment of what countries were actually doing to deal with money laundering and terrorism financing. Last February the Cook Islands, Indonesia and the Philippines were removed from that list. Egypt, Russia, Ukraine and Guatemala have also been removed from the list during the last few years.

There is some hope that FATF will again become more aggressive in dealing with non cooperative or complying countries. Last year FATF armed itself with new authority to identify and use its Recommendation 21 procedures and counter-measures against, countries �posing a particular money laundering or terrorism financing risk.� But, it has yet to do so.

FATF�s in-depth review of Australia, Italy and Switzerland�s AML/Terrorism Financing measures provided the delegates a meaningful occasion to consider remaining problems and loopholes. Similar evaluations were conducted in Belgium and Norway last June. High on this list of remaining generic problems is how to get a better handle on charities and non-banking alternative transfer mechanisms. This also includes financial transactions outside of the traditional banking structure � such as securities-related operations, real property, Jewelry, luxury goods, and cash transfers. There are also problems in dealing with shared assets and assets held beneficially. FATF�s preliminary overall assessment was that �while FATF members are making very serious efforts to implement new standards, effective implementation will take further effort. Therefore, the FATF will continue to closely monitor the progress of all its members."

Over the past few years FATF has also branched out by assisting the creation of regional AML/Terrorism financing organizations. FATF has partnered with many of these groupings to stimulate greater local and regional AML/Terrorism Financing cooperation beyond FATF�s much more limited membership. The latest joint program will be conducted with the Asia/Pacific Group on Money Laundering. They intend to explore the symbiotic relationship among corruption, money laundering and terrorist financing and how the FATF�s AML/CFT experience can best be used to combat these combined threats.

Baltimore: Possible Tunnel Terror Threats & Arrest (updated)

By Andrew Cochran

Last update at 6:10 pm ET. Threat information led to closing of Harbor Tunnel, I-895, north of Baltimore for almost 2 hours. Maryland chief homeland security official: tunnel was closed immediately upon decision to close it under plan in place for awhile. Harbor Tunnel open now. I-95 Ft. McHenry Tunnel now also open after mostly closed. AP story: At least one man has been arrested - one of four arrested on immigration charges after raids at Middle Eastern businesses. ABC News: "According to the informant, who is in detention overseas, at least six Egyptian terrorists were going to receive bomb materials that would arrive by ship at Baltimore's harbor in a container marked "Cocoa." The informant said the terrorists would then use the material to assemble explosive devices, which would be planted in cars as part of a plot to bomb one or both of the tunnels."
MSNBC concurs on that but reports that info "absolutely not corroborated." Maryland Governor says tunnel threat investigation began two weeks ago. CNN & ABC: Individuals being questioned (CNN says Egyptians) - see also Baltimore's WJZ TV story on this. Jeff Quinton has dug into the ownership details of the local Baltimore market which is apparently under investigation (WJZ story) - very interesting info on the owners.

STEVEN EMERSON on Fox News Channel: FBI questions credibility of source - threat received in US by "another agency" (not specified) more than a week ago, but not sure whether received directly or transferred by intermediary - vetted as much as possible with investigations and interviews - decided they needed to disclose threat - this decision by Maryland state homeland security agency with FBI. FBI & DHS statement: "While the information was somewhat specific, to date, the intelligence community has not found evidence that corroborates the information." Fox News: From a single overseas individual, used before and known, info not corroborated, about one person or larger group of people already in Baltimore for tunnel terrorism - feds doubt credibility. Other news sources report same info on credibility. Michelle Malkin reminds us that KSM had plans for the Brooklyn Bridge & Baltimore gas stations before his capture.

Banned Islamic Charities Operate Openly in Pakistan

By Douglas Farah

An interesing and important story in the Washington Post, which unfortunately did not make the front page, highlights one of the major problems faced with trying to shut down charities that have been known to funnel part of their proceeds to al Qaeda and other Islamic radicals. The story, and my own interviews, make it clear just how difficult it is to shut these organizations down, even after they have been designated by the United States and the United Nations. Because of these difficulties, cutting off the flow of money to terrorist groups is virtually impossible.

This is the case in the earthquake relief efforts in Pakistan, where several nominally-banned groups are openly operating in the relief efforts. While much attention has been focused on Saudi charities, Pakistani charities with close ties to al Qaeda, the Taliban and ongoing war efforts in Afghanistan, continue to operate.

Part of what makes it so difficult is that these groups often provide depserately-needed aid on the ground in crisis situations, and have an existing network of workers and resources to deploy. This is a win-win proposition for these groups: They can show that they can meet people's needs, and at the same time, recruit vulnerable individuals for other purposes and more easily divert resources to armed groups. They can also show how slow and inept the government is in responding to the the crisis, bolstering their own prestige while undercutting the standing of the official agencies. The aid, of course, is not bad and the benefits that accrue to the groups may not be part of an intentional strategy. Nonetheless, it is real and has dangerous long-term implications.

What is striking about the Post story, borne out by interviews with officials who monitor these groups, is how the groups, though banned for several years in some cases, continue to operate unimpeded. Take for example, the al-Rasheed Trust, a stronghold of the Muslim Brotherhood, with close ties to al Qaeda at least in the 1990s. The Treasury Department designated the Trust in 2003 for its alleged ongoing support of al Qaeda and other armed terrorist groups. Al-Rasheed has not even bothered to change its name, in part because senior Pakistani government officials have traditionally sat on the Trust's board of directors, making it virtually untouchable.

Another group, Lashkar-i-Taiba, has at least had to change its name. Now known as Jamaat ul-Dawa, the group has been linked to al Qaeda, "banned" by Pakistani authorities and designated by Treasury. Yet, there it is, going full blast. Go here for full blog.

The Hinrichs Case: The WSJ's "Debunking" Debunks Nothing

By Daveed Gartenstein-Ross

Michelle Malkin notes a Wall Street Journal article by Ryan Chittum and Joe Hagan about the Hinrichs "suicide bombing" -- or, more precisely, about the blog coverage of Hinrichs's death.  Malkin accurately describes the Wall Street Journal as advancing a "bloggers-are-reckless crackpots narrative."  The most significant aspect of the Journal's article is its alleged "debunking" of some of the rumors that have surrounded Hinrichs's death:

To that unsettling set of facts, blogs and local Oklahoma TV stations added several apparent inaccuracies, including:  that Mr. Hinrichs was a Muslim and visited the mosque frequently; that he tried to enter the stadium twice but was rebuffed; that he had a one-way airplane ticket to Algeria; that there were nails in the bomb and that Islamic extremist literature was found in his apartment.

None of these claims are true:  Mr. Hinrichs's family, university officials and the Federal Bureau of Investigation say Mr. Hinrichs suffered from depression, and the explosion was an isolated event.

This apparently satisfied CBS News blogger Vaughn Ververs, who wrote that Chittum and Hagan "put[ ] to rest some of the rumors that have been circulating."  My guess is that Ververs hasn't been following this story closely, and was persuaded by the confidence of the Journal's prose.  But, in actuality, the Journal's "debunking" debunks nothing.  A few notes:

1. I've previously noted that one of the problems with knowing the truth in this case is that so many local reports attribute their information to "sources" without telling us who those sources are, or why they should be believed.  The Journal's debunking is likewise based on unnamed sources.  I see no reason to believe unnamed set of sources #2 over unnamed set of sources #1.
2. The warrant that Chittum and Hagan provide for their claim that the rumors are untrue does not, in actuality, refute any of them.  Their warrant is that "Mr. Hinrichs suffered from depression, and the explosion was an isolated event."  Does Hinrich's depression mean he wasn't a mosque-frequenting Muslim?  Do depressed people avoid entering stadiums?  And if the explosion was an "isolated event" (read:  not connected to any terrorist cell) does that mean that this wasn't an act of Islamic terrorism?  Of course not.  There have been a number of freelance acts of Islamic terror in the United States over the past decade, including El Al shooter Hesham Mohamed Ali Hadayet.
3. This dovetails with a broader flaw in the FBI's approach to the Hinrichs case.  The Bureau's public statements indicate that in trying to determine whether this was an act of terrorism, the investigation has centered on whether Hinrichs was connected to any terrorist groups.  But that is not the relevant question.  As Daniel Pipes wrote, "surely the key question is not whether he was getting directions from a cave in Afghanistan or whether this was an 'individual act,' but what his intentions were.  Was he just taking his own life or intending to kill others?"
4. Moreover, Chittum and Hagan are demonstrably wrong in saying that we know that some of these rumors aren't true.  For example, they write that it's false that Hinrichs tried twice to enter the stadium.  According to Rep. Tom Cole, the FBI hasn't reached this conclusion.  Rather, the special agent in charge of the Bureau's Oklahoma office told Rep. Cole:  "We may never know.  We have no evidence of a plan to do that, but we also couldn't tell you definitively he didn't try to do it and was rebuffed.  We just simply don't know."
5. Chittum and Hagan also place too much reliance on certain sources.  For example, they cite Hinrichs's father as definitively proving that Hinrichs wasn't Muslim.  Normally one's family is a good source for this, but Hinrichs might not have been very close to his family.  An article from the Colorado Springs Gazette states:  "Hinrichs last visited his family this year, when he stopped by for about a half hour while on a road trip, his father said."  If Hinrichs didn't have much contact with his family such that they're telling the press about a half-hour visit, it's entirely possible that he converted to Islam without telling them.  In fact, his father's very broad reasoning about why Hinrichs wasn't a Muslim ("He was very curious, but he was very skeptical and about as impressionable as a tree stump") suggests that he lacked first-hand knowledge.

This isn't to say that there hasn't been some rumor-mongering in this case.  That's why, the last time I weighed in on the Hinrichs case, I chastised those bloggers who were jumping to unwarranted conclusions.  This time I'm chastising the other side.  The only thing that the Chittum and Hagan article proves is that even the WSJ isn't above publishing sloppy reporting.

Joel Henry Hinrichs III:  Case not closed.

Proposed Bill Would Tackle Deficiencies in Immigration Fraud & Enforcement

By Michael Cutler

As you know, for quite some time I have been attempting to get our political leaders live up to their respective oaths of office and secure our nation's borders and deal with other areas of the immigration system that have been virtually dysfunctional, to the great peril of our nation and its citizens.

I have been working with staffers and counsels for a number of the members of Congress from both sides of the aisle. Following a couple of the hearings at which I testified this year, Ranking Member Sheila Jackson Lee approached me and told me that she wanted to address the issues about which I had testified, most significantly the use of fraudulent documents by illegal aliens which also threatens the security of our nation. Several months ago, I was contacted by Rep. Jackson Lee's counsel, and we spent quite a bit of time discussing the issues by phone as well as by e-mails. As a result of the discussions we had, Rep. Jackson Lee agreed to address a number of issues, among them calling for the hiring of additional special agents to investigate fraud schemes by which aliens, including potential terrorists, could receive benefits to which they would not be entitled if all material facts were known by the adjudicators. She also included issues concerning foreign language training; as I have repeatedly stated, "You cannot investigate individuals you are unable to communicate with."

I am greatly encouraged by the Rapid Response Border Protection Act of 2005, H.R. 4044, that she has drafted and is available below. I am also, as you may imagine, proud to have played a role in its conception. Clearly Rep. Jackson Lee has been listening to a number of us who have been given the opportunity and the privilege of testifying before the House Subcommittee on Immigration, Border Security and Claims. Download JacksonLeeBorderSecurityBill.pdf

Iraq's Constitutional Referendum: Encouraging Signs

By Daveed Gartenstein-Ross

As Andy Cochran observed earlier, the lack of violence accompanying Iraq's constitutional referendum is encouraging.  I have a few observations about what the referendum means for the future of the war in Iraq.

First, the insurgency's second straight failure to produce a bloodbath on election day shows that the insurgents aren't as strong as media reports would lead you to believe.  Remember that the insurgents did everything they could to try to intimidate voters from reaching the polls in January, and promised a massacre.  As Evan Kohlmann reported, the Zarqawi-led group Al-Qaeda's Committee in Iraq issued a warning on the eve of the January elections:  "Take care not to go near the centers of sin and disbelief (election centers) and this is your warning so do not blame us for anything that will happen as a result. . . .  We ask the gardens and the virgins in heaven to prepare themselves, and for the Martyrs Brigade to be happy because the wedding of the martyrs is very close."  Yet the January elections were a stunning success.  The insurgents again tried to terrorize the population by knocking out electricity across Baghdad the day before the October referendum.  But when push came to shove, they were again unable to wreak major havoc.  This isn't to say that the insurgency isn't a major problem.  Clearly, the insurgents will cause far more tragedy and suffering before the battle for Iraq is won.  The point, though, is that the insurgency can be beaten -- and it will be, if we don't lose our nerve.

Second, the increased voter turnout is encouraging.  It shows that more people are buying into Iraq's new government.  In January, insurgent groups were warning people not to vote.  This time around, some insurgent groups were telling their members to go to the polls in order to vote against the new constitution.  For example, the Sunni insurgent group Ansar al-Sunna told its followers that voting amounts to a "jihad against the Americans," and that "[r]ejecting the constitution will defeat the American plan in Iraq."  If citizens perceived the new government as illegitimate or on the verge of collapse, they wouldn't turn out to vote in such high numbers -- and the insurgents certainly wouldn't be taking part in the voting process.

Third, it isn't clear what the increased Sunni turnout means.  This is a key question because of the support that some Sunni factions have provided to the insurgency.  Ideally, it would mean that the Sunnis are increasingly buying into the new government, heartened by the fact that some Sunni groups like the Iraqi Islamic Party and the Sunni Endowment endorsed the new constitution.  Conversely, though, the high Sunni turnout could mean that many Sunnis showed up to vote against the constitution.  This latter theory is the source of such statements as the assertion by Sheikh Abdul-Salam al-Kubaisi, a cleric with the Sunni Association of Muslim Scholars:  "If the constitution was passed, the attacks will definitely rise against the occupation forces, and the security situation is going to be worse."

Fourth, there's still a significant chance of serious conflict over the constitution.  The Sunnis have very legitimate concerns about the ability of Shiite and Kurdish regions to split into autonomous areas, leaving the Sunni regions without a share in the country's oil wealth.  Some Sunni groups supported the constitution at the last minute because of a compromise that created a panel in the next parliament with the power to propose broad new constitutional revisions.  There's no guarantee that constitutional revisions that satisfy the Sunni concerns will be forthcoming.

And finally, it's important to acknowledge the role of increased police presence in preventing massive bloodshed on election day.  Security precautions included "a 10 p.m. curfew, the closing of international land borders and the Baghdad airport from Friday to Sunday, and a ban on virtually all vehicle traffic on Saturday."  The lesson here (a lesson that we should also have learned from Mosul's experience) is that we shouldn't draw down our forces in Iraq too early.  If we withdraw or substantially reduce our troop presence before the Iraqi police are ready, that will be a major gift to our enemies.

I'll be discussing these issues at 6:30 Eastern today on Dateline:  Washington.  (To listen, click on the hyperlink and select the Dateline Washington Audio Feed.)

Yemeni Al-Qaida Recruit Reportedly Killed in Iraq

By Evan Kohlmann

Supporters of Al-Qaida and Abu Musab al-Zarqawi in the Arabian Peninsula have released the biography, martyrdom will, and audio recordings of an Al-Qaida recruit from Yemen recently killed in a suicidal assault on U.S. military personnel in central Iraq.  An avid supporter of Al-Qaida himself, Abu Zubair al-Yemeni explained on one recording, "When the towers were hit on September 11th, America stood up and has not sat down yet.  Her people gave money and discussed what they wanted to do.  They discussed what they wanted to do, until their discussions brought about their death."  Abu Zubair also called Usama Bin Laden "courageous", "determined", and "one of Islam's most impressive." 

Click to view biography and martyrdom will c/o Globalterroralert.com
Click to hear audio excerpt with English subtitles c/o Globalterroralert.com

Stirrings of Life from Al-Qaida in Saudi Arabia

By Evan Kohlmann

After months of inactivity following the elimination of numerous senior Al-Qaida leaders in Saudi Arabia, local militants loyal to Usama Bin Laden are once again showing signs of life in the Saudi kingdom.  On October 13, an organization calling itself the "Sada Toweik Brigades of Al-Zulfi"--and claiming a direct  connection to Al-Qaida's Committee in the Arabian Peninsula--issued its first public statement carrying greetings to Usama Bin Laden, Taliban leader Mullah Umar, and Abu Musab al-Zarqawi in Iraq.  The statement promised that the group would soon release an audio recording from 26-year old most wanted Saudi Al-Qaida suspect Abdelrahman al-Miteb--also a known resident of the central Saudi city of Al-Zulfi.

Click to view English translation of communiqu� c/o Globalterroralert.com

Saddam Hussein's Trial to Begin Wednesday

By Daveed Gartenstein-Ross

Saddam Hussein's trial is scheduled to begin on Wednesday.  An article by Dan Senor in the Daily Standard provides an excellent overview of the charges that will be leveled against Saddam and the defense strategy that we can expect.

The case against Saddam will be split into 12 to 14 separate trials, each focusing on a specific crime.  When one crime is tried, all the regime officials implicated in it will be tried at once.  These crimes include the 1987-88 Anfal campaign in which hundreds of thousands of Kurds were killed or expelled from northern Iraq; mortar bombardment of the city of Kirkuk; the 1988 chemical weapons attack on the Kurdish town of Halabja; the execution of 8,000 members of the Kurdish Barzani tribe; and the 1990 invasion of Kuwait.

Senor explains that the first of these trials "will be for one of the 'smaller' crimes:  a massacre in the small city of Dujail, about 35 miles north of Baghdad.  It was in this town that a handful of Iraqis attempted to assassinate Saddam in 1982 as his motorcade was passing through.  The regime's response was the razing of the entire city and collective punishment that resulted in the deaths of 150 locals."  Although U.S. officials wanted prosecutors to lead with one of Saddam's largest crimes while international attention was at its peak, Iraqi Special Tribunal officials decided instead to lead with the case that they considered most air-tight and easiest to prosecute.  Senor notes that Tribunal officials believe that "the momentum for the trials would be blunted if Saddam got off on a technicality on the first trial."

A leading member of Saddam's defense team, Abdul Haq al-Ani, has said that there are four facets to the defense strategy:

• The defense will argue that the war that overthrew Saddam was illegal, and thus the Saddam-era constitution, which provided the former dictator with full immunity, still applies.
• The defense will argue that there is no difference between Saddam's crimes and President Bush's response after 9/11, in that a response "to insurrection -- whether for Saddam in Halabjah or Bush in Afghanistan -- had to be swift and overwhelming."
• The defense will call U.S. officials to testify, including Donald Rumsfeld, who "is expected to be singled out . . . as the embodiment of the alleged support that the U.S. gave to Saddam in the 1980s during his use of chemical weapons."
• The defense team hopes that the airing of America's foreign policy dirty laundry "will embarrass the Bush administration into abruptly ending the trial and figure out a way to cut a deal with Saddam, which will include returning him to power."  Yes, al-Ani claims to seriously believe that Saddam is likely to be running Iraq again within a year.

Those interested in following Saddam's trial should check out the excellent Grotian Moment:  The Saddam Hussein Trial Blog.  This blog has assembled a star-studded cast of international law experts, including Raymond M. Brown, David M. Crane, Laura Dickinson, Linda Malone, Michael P. Scharf and Ruth Wedgwood.  The blog currently features debates between the experts on some of the big issues that will be prevalent throughout the trial -- for example, "Does Saddam Hussein Have a Viable Defense Based on the Necessity to Combat Insurgents and Terrorists?"  I assume that they will have continuing coverage when the trial gets underway.

Swiss Bank UBS allegedly laundered $5 billion for Cuba, Iran and Libya

By Olivier Guitta

In a widely ignored story (except by the New York Sun) and potentially one of the biggest scandals of recent memory �except the by now infamous UN Oil for Food- the Swiss financial giant Union des Banques Suisses is pointed out for having allegedly laundered $5 billion for Cuba, Iran and Libya. Interestingly enough, these countries are part of the State Department list of state sponsors of terrorism.
It all really started when in April 2003 American troops found $762 million in US dollars banknotes belonging to Saddam Hussein. They were able to trace these notes to UBS and consequently the Swiss bank was fined $100 million by Swiss and US banking authorities. Additionnally to the $762 million, UBS provided Cuba with $3.9 billion in US notes, $1 billion for Iran and $30 million for Libya.
Congress and especially Rep Ileana Ros-Lehtinen are on the case and knowing her perseverance, will get to the bottom of this new scandal. But �retrieving� the money
or rather freezing Cuban and Iranian�s assets is far from achieved. Indeed with UBS already claiming they have no accounts in the name of Cuban political leaders and an international legislation so opaque and inefficient, odds are no real punishment will be applied, except a slap on the wrist. Big international banks including recently also the French BNP Paribas involved in the Oil for Food scandal are protected by legislation with holes like Swiss cheese�

Comment: Huge defeat for Al-Zarqawi, Al Qaeda, & the pessimists, and victory for Iraq & Pres. Bush (updated 10/16)

By Andrew Cochran

Pure opinion here: I don't see how anybody, even the most dishonest of anti-American and anti-Bush propagandists, can interpret the day's events as anything but a huge defeat for Al-Zarqawi, the other terrorists there, the Al Qaeda movement, and the pessimists. Violence was minimal - Sunni turnout was high - the top Sunni party endorsed the constitution, and the leader of the biggest association of Sunni clerics endorsed the voting process. This was the biggest step for the realization of President Bush's vision for Iraq, and it went off very smoothly considering the forecasts. We'll see how the results come out and whether the parties treat them with respect. But Al Zarqawi can't hold a city any longer than the joint forces let him - he hasn't sparked a civil war - and the Sunnis are now moving towards political solutions. And Saddam goes on trial next week. UPDATE 10/16: Early counts and ground reports indicate the referendum passed - and 5 U.S. soldiers died from an IED explosion yesterday.

Iraqi Terrorists' Limited Attacks Today: Precursor of Huge Wave Tomorrow?

By Andrew Cochran

Fox News reports that Iraqi terrorists launched 5 attacks on the largest Sunni political party on the day before the constitutional referendum, which is certainly the most important election in the history of the Arab lands. The Iraqi Islamic Party threw its support behind the constitution after last-minute deals to protect Sunni rights. In Samarra, the head of the Sunni-oriented Association of Muslim Scholars was quite moderate and recognized Sunni voting responsibilities in his sermon. "I will go to the polls and vote 'no', but I leave the choice to you to follow you political references. I respect the opinion of the Iraqi Islamic party and any other party."

I'm surprised by the relative lack of violence today and amazed that no Shiite mosques were hit. After the waves of terrorist bombings in Iraq over the past two years and amid the predictions of more violence prior to and during the vote, you have to wonder whether the terrorists are waiting for tomorrow's actual voting to spring the "Big One."

Ramadan Is Time For Giving. But To Whom?

By Victor Comras

Ramadan is a time of giving, when Muslims of all denominations consider their religious obligations of Zakat and Sadaqah. But this has become increasingly difficult for America's Islamic community. Muslims in the United States have become increasingly cautious when it comes to making charitable contributions. They are well aware that several Islamic charities have been designated or placed under investigation for possible terrorism financing. After the 9/11 crackdown on Islamic Charities American Muslim community leaders asked the government for guidelines to help them channel their donations to bona fide charities. The US Treasury Department refused to provide specific guidelines. But, the Treasury Department has just recently published a useful fact sheet identifying Islamic charities and front groups that have been designated by the US Treasury Department. Hopefully this will serve to guide potential givers away from these tainted charities.

According to the Treasury paper some 41 charities have been designated pursuant to Executive Orders 13224 and 12947 for terrorist support activities. In addition several designated foreign terrorist organizations (FTOs) are included in the list. Many of them have also established fund raising groups under various names. Among the major US based charities designated for terrorism funding are al Haramain, The Holy land Foundation, Global Relief Foundation (GRF), Benevolence International Foundation (BIF), and the Islamic American Relief Agency (IARA). A full list of US designated charities can be found here.

A recent Business Week article highlighted the chilling effect the US clampdown on Islamic Charities has had on Islamic community giving. Reliable data on charitable giving trends among American Muslims is hard to come by. Yet, according to the Business Week article, Muslim Americans are increasingly bypassing established Islamic charities to fulfill their Zakat responsibilities. This includes bypassing traditional charities entirely and giving directly to those in need. Bona fide American Islamic charities are finding it increasingly difficult to raise needed funds. This has led leaders from some 20 such charities to organize themselves into a National Council of American Muslim Nonprofits. They want this new organization to serve as an umbrella group for qualified charities. Since the US Treasury and Justice Departments have refused to publish a list of charities free of suspicion, the new group wants to issue its own seal of approval. They have asked the US Treasury Department to help them develop appropriate guidelines and criteria to assure that their approval listing retains merit and credibility. But the Treasury Department remains reluctant to get involved. Treasury Department spokesperson Molly Millerwise has warned that such a seal of approval won't shield charities from possible investigation. "Donors want a vetted list of charities. We can't provide that," she says. "Who is to say if charities engage in terrorism-related activities after they're put on the list?" (Quoted from Business Week Article)

So, for now Muslim donors can rely only on the the Koran�s own very general proscription: The offerings given for the sake of God are (meant) only for the poor and the needy, and those who are in charge thereof, and those whose hearts are to be won over, and for the freeing of human beings from bondage, and (for) those who are over-burdened with debts, and (for every struggle) in God�s cause, and (for) the wayfarer: (this is) an ordinance from God - and God is all-knowing, wise. (9:60)

Warning from GAO: Little Evidence of Progress in Fight Against Extremism in Saudi Arabia

By Evan Kohlmann

Last month, the GAO issued a new report on the efforts of U.S. government agencies "to address Islamic extremism."  Two of the specific tasks allocated to the GAO as part of this report were to determine "what efforts the Saudi government has taken to address Islamic extremism." and "what U.S. agencies and other entities have reported regarding support and funding for the global propagation of Islamic extremism, particularly any provided by Saudi sources."

Though the GAO report was essentially buried in the media, there are important and worrying conclusions contained therein, especially when compared with the shrill claims of "significant progress" trumpeted by leaders of the Saudi regime in their local battle against religious militants.  The report notes the following:

"The Saudi government has announced and, in some cases, undertaken some reform efforts to address Islamic extremism... However, U.S. agencies do not know the extent of the Saudi government's efforts to limit the activities of Saudi sources that have allegedly propagated Islamic extremism outside of Saudi Arabia... As of July 2005, agency officials did not know if the government of Saudi Arabia had taken steps to ensure that Saudi-funded curricula or religious activities in other countries do not propagate extremism... [A]ccording to the government of Saudi Arabia, and State and Treasury officials, Saudi Arabia is undertaking a number of charity reforms, including requiring all private Saudi donations marked for international distribution to flow through a new National Commission for Relief and Charity Work Abroad.  However, as of July 2005, this commission was not yet fully operational, according to Treasury... According to State, the government of Saudi Arabia also announced its intentions to close al Haramain Islamic Foundation, but in May 2005, a Treasury official told us it was unclear whether the government of Saudi Arabia had implemented its plans."

Suffice it to say, there is a significant difference between proposing internal reform and actually implementing it.  The "National Commission for Relief and Charity" was supposed to be operational many, many months ago--why have the Saudis failed to live up to their promises?  U.S. regulatory and intelligence agencies must redouble their efforts to determine whether known terrorist financiers hiding in Saudi Arabia have been actually interdicted and prosecuted--or whether it is business as usual in the Kingdom of al-Saud. 

U.S. Senate Committee Announces Hearing on Saudi Terror Cooperation & King Abdullah Denounces Islamic Terrorism - Coincidence?

By Andrew Cochran

The U.S. Senate Judiciary Committee has officially announced its hearing, to be held on October 25, on the subject, "Saudi Arabia: Friend or Foe in the War on Terror." Witnesses for the hearing are not yet posted in the committee's website. Interestingly, and probably not coincidentally, Saudi King Abdullah has given an interview to Barbara Walters for broadcast tonight, in which he says that Islamic terrorism is "the work of the devil," and he commits Saudi Arabia to fighting it "until we eliminate this scourge." The king defended Saudi actions against charges that they have allowed radical Islamist fundamentalism to be taught in schools, leading students there towards terrorism. "For those who level these charges against us, I say provide us with the evidence that this is happening and we will deal with it. It is not logical or rational for us to be supporting it." He also claimed, "We have also regulated our charities and we have closed offices around the world, and we have withdrawn support for institutions that we found to be extremist."

The broad title of the hearing gives the Judiciary Committee an unlimited number of bases upon which to challenge King Abdullah's claims. Here's a short list of potential targets based on past CT Blog posts: the presence of a "Hamas command in Saudi Arabia" - the open solicitation of terrorist funds on Saudi TV by the secretary-general of the Saudi government's Muslim World League Koran Memorization Commission - the probable involvement of Saudi-based charities in the Bali bombings in 2002 and two weeks ago - the connections that Ahmed Omar Abu Ali, now held in northern Virginia in connection with terrorism-related charges, developed in Saudi Arabia - the long commitment of the current Saudi Ambassador to the U.S. to radical Islamic and wahhabist causes, including his role as Saudi "bagman" (Doug Farah's term) for the Taliban's victory in Afghanistan - and the role of Saudi citizens and Saudi embassy officials in the U.S. in disseminating hateful anti-American and anti-Israeli propaganda thoughout Islamic schools and mosques in the U.S.

"The word," as posted here and here, has been that the committee will focus on that last topic. It will be interesting to see whether Barbara Walters challenged her host on any of these topics during the interview.

Holland's problem

By Lorenzo Vidino

Reports coming from Holland today indicate that Dutch authorities have carried out anti-terror raids in various cities, arresting seven individuals between The Hague and Amsterdam. Officials have revealed that the main target of the operation is 19-year-old Samir Azzouz. Azzouz is the enfant prodige of the so-called Hofstad group, the maxi-cell responsible for the assassination of Theo van Gogh and other attempted attacks in Portugal and Holland, and the living example of the inadequacy of the Dutch anti-terrorism system. At age 16 Amsterdam-born Azzouz attempted to join the mujhaeddin fighting in Chechnya with Abdelaziz Beniyach, a leading GICM member, but the two were arrested by Ukrainian custom officers before reaching the Caucasus. Once back in Holland, Azzouz was arrested a first time in the fall of 2003 along with Mohammed Bouyeri, the future killer of Theo van Gogh, but both men were immediately released for lack of evidence. By the first months of 2004 17-year-old Azzouz had become one of the key elements of the Hofstad group. According to Dutch authorities, he had begun surveiling key installations throughout the Netherlands that were suitable targets for attacks. In June, he was arrested in connection with the robbery of the small supermarket where he worked, and police searched his Rotterdam apartment. Investigators found a gun, two ammunition clips, night vision goggles, a bulletproof vest, and chemicals commonly used in making bombs. They also found sketches and floor plans of Amsterdam�s Schiphol Airport, the headquarters of the AIVD (Algemene Inlichtingen- en Veiligheidsdienst, Dutch intelligence agency), the parliament and Defense Ministry in The Hague, and a nuclear power plant in Borssele.
Dutch prosecutors, who tried Azzouz as an adult, asked for a sentence of seven years. They also demanded that Azzouz be denied his voting rights for twelve years, an unusual request that they argued was justified because he had tried to �attack democracy.� But as often happens in terrorism trials in the Netherlands, the Rotterdam court acquitted Azzouz, sentencing him to only three months for illegal possession of firearms, a term he had already served. Exiting the courthouse with his wife, Azzouz celebrated his release by punching a freelance photographer and knocking him unconscious against a parked car.
The recently published 2004 Dutch intelligence report clearly states that �The AIVD considers this radical Muslim as one of the core members of the Hofstad group.�
Today�s events clearly show both Azzouz�s dangerousness and the Dutch legal system�s inability to deal with the severe terrorist threat it is facing.

UPDATED Details on the possible biological attack foiled in Paris

By Olivier Guitta

Further to my post on the arrests of members of the Bourrada cell linked to the Algerian GSPC, the Saudi Al Watan has interesting details about the terrorist attack in the works.
Indeed, French police discovered at the home of one of the cell members a vial containing seeds of a plant called �nigelle� ( no english translation), which is a deadly poison when in contact with the skin. This plant has also the characteristic of being used in the fabrication of explosives.
Also, the DST �roughly the French equivalent to the FBI- indicated that the members of this cell were trained in explosives nearby Tripoli, Lebanon.
They added that this training was organized on Zarqawi�s orders. This would only confirm the agreement between the GSPC and Al Qaeda�s strongman in Iraq.

Some readers have raised very good points about the "nigelle" substance. Here are some clarifications:
The article in the Saudi daily Al Watan translated in French here cites the substance as "nigelle". Here is the passage in question: "The investigators from the DST found seeds in a vial which worried them and decided to have it analysed. It turned out that the nigelle would transform itself in a deadly poison when in contact with the skin. The nigelle is part of the venimous wild plants and contains an alkaline product which can be used in the fabrication of explosives."
The only thing I can view at this point is an error of translation from the Arabic to the French regarding the name of the plant. I will try to get the original Arabic text and take it from there. After checking the Arabic version, the author of the article indeed mentioned "nigelle". So now either the journalist did get her facts wrong or we are not aware of other dangerous properties of that plant.
I will try to find out what the DST really discovered.
Thanks to our readers again for pointing that out.

Thailand Jails Algerian Wanted in Conjunction with the London Bombings for 3 Years for Trafficking in Forged Documents

By Zachary Abuza

Despite a British government request for the extradition of Atamnia Yachine (33), who was arrested in Bangkok in mid-August in possession of some 186 fake French and Spanish passports, Thai officials contend that the British government never followed up with the request and sent a �prosecution report.� �He pleaded guilty in court and got a three year jail term,� a police spokesman told Reuters.

According to press reports, British authorities issued a warrant for Atamnia Yachine in 1995 when his fingerprints were found on a parcel that contained 200 passports. British police believe that Yachine supplied fake travel documents to the London bombers. Thai authorities tracked him down in the ongoing investigation of another ethnic Algerian (though British citizen), Mahiededine Daikh, who was arrested on 2 August at Bangkok�s airport in possession of 452 fake passports.

Thailand has been under intense international pressure to crack down on the flourishing trade in documents. This successful prosecution, and seizure of 638 passports is an important first step.

Iraq Votes on Constitution Saturday

By Daveed Gartenstein-Ross

This Saturday, Iraqis will vote in a referendum on their new constitution.  USA Today reports that turnout is expected to be even higher than the January elections because of increased Sunni participation.

The expected Sunni turnout is reflective of news that provides reason for cautious optimism.  The New York Times reports that a recent compromise has spurred some Sunni groups (the Iraqi Islamic Party and the Sunni Endowment) to endorse the latest draft of the constitution.  The compromise creates a panel in the next parliament that possesses "the power to propose broad new revisions to the constitution."  The purpose of this compromise is to "give the Sunnis -- who were largely shut out of the constitution-writing process -- a new chance to help redraft the document after elections in December."

Commentators see hope in the compromise.  Andrew Sullivan writes, "The news from Iraq today is about as good as one can hope for right now.  Some Sunni leaders have been enticed to support the Constitution on the understanding that they have a few months to finesse it after the vote.  It's a messy, fraught and unsatisfying compromise, which is to say it's politics.  Politics, recall, is what Iraq hasn't really had for thirty years.  Under Saddam, it had tyranny backed by sadism and corruption. . . .  Now we actually have negotiation, brinksmanship, and the astonishingly resolute refusal of the Shiite leadership to be drawn into civil war by Zarqawi's brutal slaying of Shiite Muslims."  And USA Today:  "The revised constitution, while still plainly flawed, introduces a theoretical path by giving Sunnis, who have long ruled the country, a reason to end their non-participation."

One of the chief Sunni concerns that remains under the latest draft of the constitution is the ability of Shiite and Kurdish regions to split into autonomous areas.  Since the Shiite and Kurdish regions contain Iraq's oil wealth, the New York Times reports that such a break-off could "leav[e] the Sunnis with little more than large swaths of impoverished desert land."

While some Sunni leaders have endorsed the constitution, others urge its rejection.  For example, an official with the Muslim Scholars Association stated, "We call on the people to boycott the referendum or say no to the constitution.  We reject the entire political system because of the presence of the invaders."

Security has been stepped up in advance of the elections.  The New York Times reports that while American and Iraqi forces are prepared to protect polling centers, Iraq's Ministry of the Interior has announced travel restrictions, "including a 10 p.m. curfew, the closing of international land borders and the Baghdad airport from Friday to Sunday, and a ban on virtually all vehicle traffic on Saturday."  These security measures will be accompanied by offensive military operations in the Sunni triangle throughout the weekend.  Maj. Gen. Rick Lynch, a spokesman for the coalition forces, says they still expect the elections to be accompanied by "a spike" in violence.

"Official IRA" Leader Worked With North Korea to Pass Counterfeit Dollars

By Andrew Cochran

In a story related to the theme in Doug Farah's post below, the U.S. Justice Department yesterday announced a May 19 indictment of seven men on charges of obtaining and passing counterfeit dollars which originated in North Korea. Specifically, the indictment says that between December 1997 and July 2000, the seven handled up to $1m of counterfeit $100 bills from North Korean sources and arranged to transport, pass as genuine, or resell the bills in the the Republic of Ireland, the United Kingdom, Russia, Belarus, Poland, Denmark, the Czech Republic, Germany, and elsewhere. The leader of the gang, Sean Garland, is referred to in the indictment as "the Chief of Staff� and "Colonel in Chief" of �the old style IRA,� also known as the "Official IRA," the military wing which split off from the political wing of the IRA (the "Provisional IRA") in 1969. Allegedly, the profits from the illegal enterprise went back into the Official IRA. The indictment is the result of a long investigation through the Russian Mafia - one of the defendants is Russian, and Garland allegedly traveled to Russia, Belarus, and Poland often - and found the gang using false identities, dummy couriers, codewords, money laundering techniques, and secure communication methods. No North Koreans were named, but the indictment states that "North Korean nationals acting as ostensible government officials engaged in the worldwide transportation, delivery, and sale of quantities" of the $100 bills. Last month, the Washington Times reported on the arrest of a Taiwanese national who was involved in the counterfeiting scheme. The Taiwanese national, Chao Tung Wu, told an FBI undercover agent that "the government of a foreign country," identified later by a Bush Administration official as North Korea, manufactured the counterfeit currency that he sold. Wu's trial is scheduled to begin next week.

Surely the North Koreans also used outlets in addition to the Official IRA, including possibly other terrorist groups, for marketing their phony dollars and other counterfeit goods. Matthew Levitt testified before a U.S. Senate committee in May about the use of counterfeiting and criminal enterprises by terrorists (Acrobat file). Steven Emerson also testified, in part, on various financing schemes used by terrorists when he appeared before another Senate committee in July. And it's interesting, maybe more than coincidental, that the indictment comes on top of news of a wave of counterfeit $100 bills hitting Baltimore.

You can see the new indictment against Garland and the six others below (Acrobat file courtesy of The Investigative Project on Terrorism):
Download USvGarlandIndictment051905.pdf

Growing links Between Terrorism and Organized Crime?

By Douglas Farah

It seems that the cross-pollination among terrorist organizations and between terrorist groups and organized criminal groups is accelerating. The types of alliance vary from case to case, and, in most cases, are temporary alliances of convenience rather than more formal integrations. However, the frequency of even these temporary connections is giving al Qaeda and its affiliated groups--most notably Zarqawi's group--a significant boost and amplifying their reach.

A few things some in the intelligence community and some observant journalists have recently noted in this vein: Hezbollah-style explosives are being used in Iraq by Zarqawi's group, bringing new sophistication and lethality to many of the operations; cars stolen in the United States are turning up as vehicles used in suicide attacks in Iraq, shipped from the West Coast to Syria, then driven into Iraq; possible ties, now the subject of several investigations in Europe, of important leaders of the Muslim Brotherhood, through leading European banks, to laundering large sums of drug money for radical Islamic groups. Much of this appears to be coordinated through activities in the tri-border area of Brazil, Argentina and Uruguay, as well as Panama and Isla Margarita off the Venezuelan coast.

The evolution of these ties is natural, but often misunderstood by elements of the intelligence community who cling to the notion that Islamic terrorists seldom breach the Sunni-Shi'ite divide and don't work with secular organizations because they are non-believers. The truth seems to be that in the vast majority of the cases, the criminal organizations have no religious or poliitcal objectives. They just want to make money. Islamic radicals want and need certain specific things from people with certain commodities or skills, and are willing to deal with virtually anyone who has what they need. In the don't-ask-don't-tell world of criminal and terrorist activities, these marriages of convenience are easy and non-threatening to the integrity of each group.

In the case of Sunnis and Shi'ites, it seems increasingly clear that strong and sometimes lethal differences exist on the ground among some of the different groups in Iraq. This is evident in some of the clashes in Iraq, where Shi'ites have been targetted. But is seems equally clear that, on a leadership level there is an understanding that the groups, along with some Baathists in Syria, have a common enemy and must make common cause, which they do. Hence the role of Iran in protecting senior al Qaeda leaders and helping train Zarqawi's people in Hezbollah-pioneered techniques.

The one group whose leadership has a long and little-known history of involvement with all three elements in this volitle mixture is the Muslim Brotherhood. To continue reading, go here.

Three years after Bali I, JI remains alive and well

By Zachary Abuza

Today marks the third anniversary of the 2002 bombings in Bali that left some 202 people dead. It remains the single most lethal terrorist incident after 9/11. Although most of the people were killed following the detonation of a large truck bomb, Southeast Asia�s first suicide bomber was employed in Paddy�s Bar moments before in an attempt to get people into the blast zone of the larger explosion.

JI remains alive and well. . Despite the arrests of more than 300 members across the region, including much of its leadership, JI remains the single-most lethal Al Qaeda affiliated group in the world. It is launched a major attack every year since then, in roughly one-year intervals, including the recent triple suicide blasts in Bali.

While the nature of JI�s current relationship to Al Qaeda is not clear at this time, due to the arrests of key figures in the respective organizations, JI remains committed to the Al Qaeda line. Money is still likely flowing from Al Qaeda coffers to JI, though through smaller and informal channels.

JI remains resilient for eight key reasons:

1. A core of first-generation leaders, several with Afghan experience, remains at large. There are roughly 20 JI leaders on the US Rewards for Justice most wanted list who remain at large. They are charismatic and able recruiters. Moreover, they come from all social and educational classes, giving JI a broad-base of recruits.
2. JI continues to have access to MILF training camps/base areas in the southern Philippines. Moreover, they have forged closer relations with groups such as the Abu Sayyaf.
3. JI continues to perpetrate sectarian conflicts in the outer islands of Indonesia, an important recruiting ground. Sectarian conflict not only gives new recruits a taste of defending their religion, a sense of jihad, and an us vs. them mentality, but it reinforces the notion that the Indonesian government does not defend the interests of its Muslim constituency.
4. JI has been focusing on spiritual purification � advanced religious training for its members � which they are doing overtly.
5. They have been able to take advantage of the fact that JI as an organization remains un-proscribed. Mere membership is not illegal in Indonesia.
6. They continue to operate trans-nationally in Southeast Asia and South Asia (Pakistan and Bangladesh), and take advantage of improved yet imperfect inter-state cooperation.
7. They take advantage of conflicts in Iraq and southern Thailand, and identify with the plight of persecuted Muslims.
8. They are patient. JI�s own documents speak of a 30 year time frame to achieve their initial goal: an Islamic state in Indonesia, the nucleus of a pan-Islamic caliphate in Southeast Asia. If the Prophet Mohammad himself had to make a strategic retreat, there is no face lost: it is theologically ordained. They will focus on dawah activities.

While it is important not to overstate the threat posed by JI, or over-react by passing rash counter-terror legislation that can be used to erode the democratic gains in the region, we should not become complacent either. JI remains the most immediate security threat in the region and demands the attention and cooperation of those states and the American, Australian and European partners.

Al-Zawahiri's Letter to al-Zarqawi Confirms Importance of Abu Faraj al-Libbi, Captured in Pakistan

By Andrew Cochran

The letter from Al Qaeda's #2, Ayman al-Zawahiri, to Iraq Al Qaeda leader Abu Musab al-Zarqawi appears to confirm the importance to Al Qaeda of Abu Faraj al-Libbi, who was captured in Pakistan in May of this year. The letter alludes to al-Libbi's role in fundraising for Al Qaeda and leads to al-Zawahiri's begging for money from al-Zarqawi:

Because Abu al-Faraj - may God set him free and release him from his torment - was lured by one of his brothers, who had been taken into custody, to meet him at a public location where a trap had been set. 6-The brothers informed me that you suggested to them sending some assistance. Our situation since Abu al-Faraj is good by the grace of God, but many of the lines have been cut off. Because of this, we need a payment while new lines are being opened. So, if you're capable of sending a payment of approximately one hundred thousand, we'll be very grateful to you.

When al-Libbi was captured, Matthew Levitt wrote this piece on him. You can see links to media comments at that time about al-Libbi's importance by our Contributing Experts here. There was a brief controversy among some experts about al-Libbi's actual importance, in which we were involved, as discussed in this post on May 10. The al-Zawahiri letter should put any remaining doubts to rest.

Syria: General Kanaan's "assisted" suicide?

By Walid Phares

Walid Phares

Top news on al Jazeera and in the Arab world, the officially dubbed "suicide" of Brigadier General Gaazi Kanaan, Syria's interior minister is a high indicator of storms to come Report. The Security General had ruled Syrian occupied Lebanon for almost two decades. His knowledge of the intelligence and terrorism web is boundless. Some sources in Syria and Lebanon, reacting to the news this morning called the death, an "assisted suicide." Kanaan, according to these sources knew "significantly" about the assassins of former Prime Minister Hariri. He "committed" suicide as the time President Assad would be addressing world opinion and the American public via CNN. (Analysis coming soon) 

Remember the USS Cole and the Terrorists Who Killed Our Men

By Andrew Cochran

Today is the fifth anniversary of the attack on USS Cole in the harbor at Eden, Yemen, the last small-scale warning by al Qaeda of its intention to kill Americans before the 9/11 attacks. We should pause for a moment of prayer today for the 17 sailors who were killed, the 39 who were injured, the victim's families and friends. We must NEVER FORGET the terrorist metwork which perpetrated this act of war, and we should renew the resolve to eliminate, one way or another, all like-minded Islamic extremists who would destroy Western civilization and impose their diabolical view of Islam. The USS Cole was one of the numerous al Qaeda attacks in the 1990s that EVERYONE in the West, not just in the United States, not just one political party or another, ignored at our peril. Maybe, just maybe, if we had pursued the perpetrators of the USS Cole bombing vigorously and without hindrance (don't get me started on that one), we might have been able to stop Mohammed Atta and his gang. Good sites today: the official USS Cole Memorial Dedication site - the DOD USS Cole Commission Report, released 1/9/01 - "Sisyphus" blog post - Michelle Malkin's post - Alan Gray's tribute.

Oklahoma Suicide Bombing: Sorting Through the Evidence

By Daveed Gartenstein-Ross

I posted a couple of times last week (original post here; update here) about Joel Hinrichs III, who died on October 1 after detonating an explosive device while sitting on a bench about 100 yards from a stadium that was packed for an Oklahoma University-Kansas State football game.  The fact that Hinrichs chose to kill himself using explosives is in itself noteworthy; this case is even more noteworthy for the fact that Hinrichs attempted to purchase ammonium nitrate just a few days before his death.  There have been a host of other reports in the Oklahoma media (including reports that Hinrichs attempted to enter the football stadium, and that he attended the same Norman, Oklahoma mosque as Zacarias Moussaoui) that, if true, would be significant.

I noted in my first blog entry on the subject that "many of the reported facts are based on fairly sketchy sourcing."  Local media reports have been particularly opaque, as much of the information in them has been attributed simply to "sources" -- leaving us no idea of the veracity of these sources, nor of the evidence on which they base their conclusions.  Thus, I thought it would be helpful for me to sort through the evidence and distinguish between what we know and what we don't know.  First, what we do know:

• Hinrichs died after detonating an explosive while sitting about 100 yards from a packed football stadium.  This fact alone makes the case noteworthy.  (We don't know, however, if he meant for the bomb to detonate when it did.)
• Hinrichs tried to buy ammonium nitrate a few days before blowing himself up.  The evidence for this is solid.  Norman police have confirmed that an off-duty police officer was in the feed store where Hinrichs tried to buy ammonium nitrate.  Because Hinrichs seemed suspicious, the officer followed him to the parking lot, got his car's tag number, and phoned the tag number to Norman police.
• Hinrichs had a Pakistani roommate who was briefly detained after Hinrichs's death, but subsequently released.
• The warrant used to execute a search of Hinrichs's apartment was subsequently sealed.

Now, what we don't know:

• We don't know whether Hinrichs attended the same mosque as Moussaoui.  While this was reported in the local press, the information is attributed to "sources."  The president of Oklahoma University's Muslim Student Association has said that he believes Hinrichs was neither Muslim nor someone who frequented mosques.  Who to believe?  Unclear.
• We don't know whether Hinrichs attempted to enter the football stadium before he died.  The source for this is a student who claims that a security guard told him that someone wearing a backpack had tried to enter the stadium but sprinted away when the guard tried to search his bag.  The guard hasn't been interviewed by the local media, nor has anybody been able to definitively say that the person who ran away was Hinrichs.
• We don't know if the bomb that killed Hinrichs was made with TATP.  While this has been widely reported, the information again comes from unnamed sources.  The FBI has refused to confirm or deny these reports.
• We don't know whether Hinrichs's roommate had a plane ticket to Algeria, as was reported in the local media -- nor has the local media specified whether this was supposedly a one-way ticket.

People have offered a range of conclusions in this case, and various bloggers are confidently declaring this to be an act of Islamic terror.  The bottom line, though, is that we're best served by careful analysis of the facts.  Sensationalistic reporting and jumping to unwarranted conclusions helps nobody.  This is obviously a fascinating case; I have good sources in Oklahoma and will continue to follow the story on this blog as it further develops.  But we must be careful to distinguish what we know from what we do not know.

Thawahiri?s last letter: Al Qaeda and Iraq; an old project..

By Walid Phares

Walid Phares

When US media showed significant interest in the Thawahiri letter addressed to Abu Mus'aab al Zarqawi (see for example The Washington Post on October 7), I attempted to monitor the "Jihadi Chat" regarding the so-called letter. To my surprise, the next day, a letter was being read in a couple chat rooms. It was a lengthy text of about 30 minutes. All of the points summarized in the daily media were included, but the oral paragraphs were much longer. The "moderator" said he was reading the letter from the "doctor"; hence it is assumed to be the same letter. The moderator also mentioned that this document was also read back in August, but I had no way to confirm it. My first conclusion though was that the so-called letter -or a copy- was indeed released internally within the Tanzeem (organization) for dissemination and "discussion." That day, I had no evidence about the first date of the internal release, nor who released it to the network all the way to the "rooms." Was it released back in July, since July or after segments of the letter transpired in the Western press? It seemed to me that, although Thawahiri's letter was on the face of it "personal" and directed to Abu Mas'aab, it was nevertheless circulated (or pieces of it) among the Jihadists before it was publicized gradually in the US and West. Was there a reason? Until the Government posted the entire translation of the text on the web site today (see Andy Cochran's earlier post), the situation was somewhat peculiar: Was it meant to be sent only for the eyes of Abu Mus'aab? I am not sure anymore. For a Thawahiri letter to be read by the room(s) moderators and "descended" on to the cadres, shows the initial intent of he writer(s) and the sender(s). Ironically, while some paragraphs of the letter were surfacing through the media, the (alleged) entire text of the letter (or at least a much longer version) was circulated within the Jihadist community on line.While pieces were appearing in the US press, the entire letter was read in the chat rooms... enigma?

Text of Letter From Ayman al-Zawahiri to Abu Musab al-Zarqawi Posted on DNI Website

By Andrew Cochran

The complete text of the letter dated July 9, 2005, from Al Qaeda's #2, Ayman al-Zawahiri, to Iraq Al Qaeda leader Abu Musab al-Zarqawi is now posted on the website of the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (John Negroponte's office). You can download both the Arabic and the English versions there. The link to the English version will be also saved in the Counterterrorism Library in the left sidebar.

Mayor Bloomberg Made the Right Call - The Earthquake Provides Opportunities for OBL & Radical Islamists

By Steven Emerson

You can see video of my October 11 Fox News appearance here, and my October 10 Fox News appearance here.
NYC subway threat: Obviously hindsight is always better and now, given a week and a half to interrogate the Iraqi individual who provided the information, the tentative assessment now is that he was a "hoaxster." An instant judgment had to be made eight days ago based on very limited intelligence, and the assessment was made to raise the subway alert. The new head of DNI, John Negroponte, and his office is supposed to make the assessment. But it's a difficult call, because they get raw intelligence. They get a transcript and somebody's report of an interrogation and saying that this guy passed certain parts of a polygraph and has made certain statements in the past that have proven true, and other parts have not proven true. But in the end, the mayor said correctly that if he's going to err, he's going to err on the side of caution. I think the only question right now is whether in fact there was enough due diligence done on the source itself at the time that he was arrested.

Earthquake: I have not heard whether the earthquake actually hit or impacted Osama bin Laden. It's probably going to be impossible to find out with any certainty whether it forced him or any of his comrades out. I suspect that he has plenty of contingency plans for any type of scenario that would force him out of his current hideout. Also, there were very few forces looking for him to begin with. Now with this destruction and the inability to traverse the area, there is almost no one who is going to be able to look for him and try to exploit the opportunity that might arise.

In previous situations where there have been calamities that hit - in the areas of the Middle East or Southeast Asia - where the governments have not rapidly responded, radical Islamic groups have been able to exploit it. They claim, somehow, that the catastrophes are driven or carried out secretly by the United States or Israel, believe it or not, as they claimed in the tsunami disaster. The radical groups are able to fill the void in the way of providing humanitarian rescue services. So it could adversely impact us there. Our rapid relief response certainly reflects well on us, but the question is how it is perceived. In the end, we can't control the way they portray us in the region.

We would hope that we would see Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, Qatar and other oil-producing regimes pick up a lot of the effort here in terms of providing the main bulk of money. Because this is in their back yard and this is a Muslim country that is in need. I would like to see them help out.

Kashmir Earthquake: Opportunities for Peace and for Terrorism

By Victor Comras

Disaster�s like the October 8th earthquake in Kashmir, Pakistan and India, can bring out the best and the worst in people. And we are likely to see both aspects of human nature in Kashmir where so many groups have their own conflicting strategic and political agendas. Assistance from government and private charitable sources is pouring in from around the world, and the Pakistan and India government have both taken some unprecedented steps to help each other out. Pakistan even accepted an Indian offer for aid to earthquake-hit areas on the Pakistani side of Kashmir. However, joint India-Pakistan rescue operations have, so far, been ruled out.

Kashmir and Jammu have experienced years of tension and terrorism. Designated Islamic terrorist groups such as Lashkar-e-Taiba, Harakat ul-Mujahedeen and Jaish-e-Muhammad are well entrenched in the region. Ostensibly outlawed by the Pakistan government, they continue active. And beyond their terrorism-related activities they have built extensive social and humanitarian civilian support structures, particularly in the areas where they operate. First indications are that many of their camps, hospitals, schools and other mosques were decimated by the earthquake. A spokesman for Jamat-ud-Dawa, a charitable group drawn from the ranks of Lashkar, is cited by Associated Press, as having indicated that many of the group�s mosques, hospitals, schools and seminaries were obliterated in Saturday�s earthquake. See also Andy Cochran's Blog on this topic

With Ramadan approaching Muslims around the world will doubly want to assist their religious brethren, and will be looking for appropriate channels to do so. Their contributions will be solicited by both mainstream Islamic charities in the West and in the Gulf region, and from charities associated with a militant jihad calling. Britain�s Islamicaid is one of the mainstream charities that has been at the forefront of assistance on the ground. The Saudi-based�s International Islamic Relief Organization (IIRO) and Muslim World League have also reportedly allocated funds for relief activities. The latter two organizations have, in the past been used, knowingly or unwittingly as conduits for raising and distributing funds to known terrorist groups. Radical Islamist parties and Kashmiri separatist groups located in Pakistan are also active in relief activities. There is some reason for concern, however, that they will use these efforts to help re-establish or foster new terrorist cells and activities in the region. These risks track with similar concerns that were expressed with regard to the channeling of aid to Southeast Asia Tsunami victims, and that led the Indonesian and Malaysian governments to establish close assistance oversight mechanisms. Getting aid to the quake�s victims is, for now, the most urgent task. But, thought must also be given to assure that appropriate assistance mechanisms are also put in place by the Pakistan government to assure that assistance is motivated and used for humanitarian rather than terrorist purposes.

The Challenge and Divisiveness of Information Sharing in Today?s Environment

By Dennis Lormel

Information sharing is critical to terrorism prevention. This fact has created a serious dilemma for many police departments. It has also caused fractious relationships between federal and local authorities. Since its inception, the Department of Homeland Security has been responsible for coordinating the dissemination of terrorist information to state and local authorities. In a perfect world, information would be passed along in a timely and coherent manner. Unfortunately we live in anything but a perfect world. As a result, major police departments have increasingly taken it upon themselves to acquire their own intelligence information and not rely on waiting for the federal government to furnish terrorist related intelligence information. This is a dangerous trend. In the long term, it is a recipe for disaster and must be addressed at the highest levels of government.

Afghanistan's Progress and Unfinished Business Provide Gauges for Iraq's Future

By Andrew Cochran

Afghani political and private sector leaders are touring the U.S. to make the case that the country has turned the corner and welcomes foreign investment. The Afghan government says that more than 3,000 new investment projects have been registered in the country in the last 2 years, with almost half of the investment coming from outside the country. The leaders are taking advantage of Afghanistan's historic strategic position in Asian trading routes, which made it attractive to invaders, and the need for oil pipeline routes from Turkmenistan or Kazakhstan to India or Pakistan. Afghanistan will also host the third meeting of the ten-member Economic Cooperation Organization (ECO) in Kabul next month. The ECO, founded by Iran, Turkey and Pakistan in 1985, now includes many of the countries in Central Asia and the "Stan" republics. These are very positive developments which can only bear fruit if the vast majority of the country is secure from remnants of the Taliban & al Qaeda.

Peter Baker, one of two Washington Post reporters who spent months in Afghanistan after we liberated the country. He recently visited there to determine its progress and wrote of his impressions in yesterday's edition. He described "dozens of new two- and three-story buildings" being erected by Afghan businessmen in one town - new Chinese, Thai, Italian, Indian and French restaurants in Kabul, along with a number of gleaming new glass buildings, what he calls "a mind-boggling act of optimism in a city where not long ago nearly every windowpane was shattered by years of rocket attacks." But "most Afghans still grind out the same subsistence lives they did under the Taliban, living in mud houses, growing their own food, maybe selling soap or shoes in the bazaar. Poppy harvesting and the drug trafficking it spawns still account for roughly half of the Afghan economy. Corruption is endemic." Today's attack in Kandahar is another reminder that security from terrorist elements requires continous attention. And now we're shifting choppers involved in counterterrorism efforts there to earthquake relief efforts in Pakistan. As we approach Iraq's date with destiny, we can look at the progress made in Afghanistan thus far as a harbinger for Iraq's future, and we can see the unfinished business in the former country as a reminder of the work yet to be done in Iraq.

What Impacts Will South Asia Earthquake Have on War on Terrorism? (UPDATE 10/10)

By Andrew Cochran

We grieve for the thousands of victims of the devastating earthquakes in South Asia. We invite you to contribute to The International Committee of the Red Cross and other good charities to help throughout the region. The wellbeing of the survivors and the rebuilding of the region should be a priority for the U.S. and the world. On this site, we unfortunately have to raise the potential impacts of the earthquake on the war against terrorists in the region. The media is already into this angle - the AP is already reporting that there is no evidence that "the deadly earthquake that rocked Pakistan on Saturday injured or killed the world's top terror leader, Usama bin Laden." We also recall that the jihadists rejoiced over the destruction upon the southeast U.S. as a result of Hurricane Katrina. We will monitor events and websites for pertinent information and bring it to you here.

UPDATE 10/10: The London Telegraph reports today that "Training camps used by jihadists battling with the Indian army for control of Kashmir were buried by landslides or left in ruins by the earthquake...Military sources said that an estimated 1,000 Pakistani soldiers died in the earthquake after their concrete-roofed bunkers along the Kashmir frontier collapsed. Security sources said 15 militant training camps had been put out of action by the earthquake." And an AP story about the impacts on Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT), the Pakistani-based terrorist group in which the "Virginia jihad network" and several Maryland men were allegedly involved: "Meanwhile, scores of activists from an Islamist charity linked to a banned Pakistani militant organization died in the devastating earthquake. A spokesman for Jamat-ud-Dawa, a group drawn from the ranks of Lashkar, said the charity�s mosques, hospitals, schools and seminaries were obliterated in Saturday�s earthquake."

Why Indonesian Authorities Cannot Come Out and Say it Was Jemaah Islamiyah: Pandering to the Islamists

By Zachary Abuza

"They (the bombers) come from a new group," Bali police chief Made Mangku Pastika told reporters on Friday, 7 October. "A new generation means that (they) are not known by the old group." While he did not rule out links with JI, he gave reported the sense that they were a fundamentally different organization.

Yet, Indonesian police also believe that Zulkarnaen, JI�s chief of military operations, ordered the attack and that Dr. Azahari bin Hussin and Noordin Mohammad Top, both senior JI members, are believed to have been the chief planners, bomb-makers and recruiters. Indeed, one of the most important clues to date are three phone calls Zulkarnaen�s wife made to Bali days before the attacks.

So which one is it? Was it JI or not JI?

This is not a new group, a distinct organization, with its own command system, hierarchy, and goals. JI is just a very horizontal and exceptionally compartmentalized organization. It has a very rigid cell structure that places paramount importance on operational security. Of course leaders do not know who cell members are. That is the point of a cellular-based organization; so that an arrest can never lead police to more than a handful of other members. These cell members often form their own organizations (Kompak in Ambon, for example) that simply have a more local geographical range of operations and activities. But that does not mean that they are completely autonomous or that they are working at odds against JI�s goals. This is just a very loose horizontal organization

Moreover, we have to understand that when Indonesian officials say that this is a new organization, we have to understand the political realities. In September 2004, newly elected president Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono (SBY) announced that he would ban JI only after he had proof that the organization exists. Under the current law, membership within JI is technically not illegal and Indonesian official have hid behind ludicrous claims that since JI is not registered, it cannot be banned, nor can they claim that it is pointless to ban something that "is not a formal organization with card-carrying members." There is intense international pressure on the Indonesian government to ban JI, but no politician in the world�s largest Muslim community has the political courage to ban an organization that a) simply translates as �Islamic community,� and b) many Muslims does not believe really exists. If SBY is going to ban any organization, it cannot be called �Jemaah Islamiyah,� but must be a new �fringe group.� This is politics, not reality.

Indonesian police announced that they had detained a Malaysian suspect in the Bali blast, but suggested it was not one of the masterminds, Noordin Mohammad Top or Dr. Azahari bin Hussin. The suspect was described by police as someone who had come to Indonesia �to preach.�

"Al-Qaida's Jihad in Palestine" Distributes Flyers in Gaza Strip

By Evan Kohlmann

An organization calling itself "Al-Qaida's Jihad in Palestine" has reportedly been distributing leaflets from the Salahudeen al-Ayyubi Mosque in the Gaza Strip on the occasion of Ramadan.  One document--urging Muslims to "restore the era of the first Islamic empire"--described how "[t]he West appointed governments that are loyal to their interests, and attack those who stand up for Islam... The Westerners have forced us to taste shame and humiliation... We call upon all the factions to grasp our hands and join forces under one raised banner: the banner of Islam and al-Tawheed."

Click to view English translation c/o Globalterroralert.com

New Statements from Al-Qaida in Iraq/Zarqawi

By Evan Kohlmann

Al-Qaida's Jihad Committee in Iraq--led by Abu Musab al-Zarqawi--has issued several new strategic communiqu�s concerning Al-Qaida's ongoing battle with its American, Saudi, and Shiite enemies.  The statements included a message from the chief of Al-Qaida's Military Wing in Iraq, Abu Usaid al-Iraqi, who called upon Al-Qaida fighters to show their enemies "no mercy" and repeatedly prayed for Allah to "shake the ground beneath the feet of our enemies."

Click to view English translations c/o Globalterroralert.com:
- Oct. 3 statement on the role of the Saudi regime in Iraq
- Oct. 5 statement from commander Abu Usaid al-Iraqi
- Oct. 5 statement on America and the "industry of illusions"

See also: [CHART] "Zarqawi's Leadership Network in Iraq"

GSPC: "Defeating Evil America" Will Bring Peace to Algeria

By Evan Kohlmann

In a new communique dated September 27, the top commander of the Algerian Salafist Group for Prayer and Combat (GSPC) Abu Musab Abdel Wadoud has addressed an Algerian government amnesty proposal for Islamic militants willing to lay down their arms.  Wadoud scoffed at the amnesty proposal, suggesting its only possible meaning was that "after the prolonged ordeal of fighting the soldiers of Allah, the enemies of Allah have realized that this group cannot be eliminated and will never be defeated."  Wadoud explained further that--given current world events--there can be no peace in Algeria until "evil America" is defeated:

"...the world war between Muslims and Christians has already begun� the leader of the infidels, Bush, has clearly declared this war three times to be a crusader war� the defeat that America is suffering now along with the other Western nations� has played a critical role in awakening young Muslim men around the world, including in Algeria.  There is no doubt that defeating evil America will bring an end to all the apostate and treacherous regimes on the planet, including the apostate regime in Algeria... We inform this evil president [Abdelaziz Bouteflika]� that we will never shake our hands with your filthy hands�those which have also grasped [the hands of] the Jew [Ehud] Barak� O� Allah, destroy America and its apostate tyrants everywhere and bestow victory upon your mujahideen servants.  Finally, I send my greetings to our Shaykh Usama Bin Laden and I ask Allah to protect him.  I also send my greetings to our beloved brother Abu Musab al-Zarqawi and to all the jihadi commanders everywhere."

Click to view English translation c/o Globalterroralert.com

Zawahiri Letter Shows Iraq's Importance to al-Qaeda's Jihad

By Daveed Gartenstein-Ross

The United States recently obtained a 13-page letter from bin Laden deputy Ayman al-Zawahiri to al-Qaeda's leader in Iraq, Abu Musab al-Zarqawi.  The letter was captured in a counterterrorism operation in Iraq, and there are two special points of significance to note.

First, the letter shows the al-Qaeda leadership's increasing sensitivity to public opinion.  Zawahiri writes of the importance of popular support for al-Qaeda, and rebukes Zawahiri for the Iraq insurgency's "brutal tactics -- noting that hostages can just as effectively be killed with bullets rather than by beheading."  I've written before (most recently in the Weekly Standard) of al-Qaeda's increased efforts to tailor their message to appeasement-minded Westerners.  Apparently, Zawahiri has also given some thought to how he can bolster al-Qaeda's image in the Muslim world.

Second, the letter shows Iraq's current importance to al-Qaeda's jihad.  Officials have said that Zawahiri's letter outlines al-Qaeda's four stage plan:

The letter of instructions and requests outlines a four-stage plan, according to officials:  First, expel American forces from Iraq.  Second, establish a caliphate over as much of Iraq as possible.  Third, extend the jihad to neighboring countries, with specific reference to Egypt and the Levant -- a term that describes Syria and Lebanon.  And finally, war against Israel.  US officials say they were struck by the letter's emphasis on the centrality of Iraq to Al Qaeda's long-term mission.

This letter further confirms that we shouldn't withdraw from Iraq prematurely.  If we were to do so, the country could collapse into a state of chaos that would allow al-Qaeda to gain a foothold and perhaps establish something similar to pre-9/11 Afghanistan:  a geographic area where the group could train terrorists and plan attacks against the West.

UPDATE, 10/19/2005:  The Zawahiri letter's authenticity has been increasingly questioned.  I address this in a newer post.

New Chart: "Abu Musab al-Zarqawi's Leadership Network in Iraq"

By Evan Kohlmann

In the wake of the recent death of Abu Azzam al-Iraqi, I have created a new chart (available c/o the NEFA Foundation) depicting the known leadership of Abu Musab al-Zarqawi's Al-Qaida network in Iraq.  This document is meant to serve as an update to my previous diagram of Zarqawi's network in Iraq released in May.  Bill Roggio, who previewed a rough draft of this latest chart, offers his analysis and comments here.

To Bali Via Mindanao: What the Bali Investigations Tell Us So Far

By Zachary Abuza

Three suicide bombs went off in crowded restaurants and cafes in Bali on 1 October. To date, there have been no arrests and there is only tentative news that one of the three bombers has been identified (but only by his nom de guerre), but there has been progress in the investigation that has shed light on the complexity of the organization. In particular, Indonesian police seem to be focusing on two different cells that may have played a role.

Contributing Experts Discuss NY Subway Threat & President Bush's Speech

By Andrew Cochran

Contributing Experts discussed the subway threat & President Bush's speech on TV last night and today: Evan Kohlmann on MSNBC's "Countdown" - Steven Emerson on Fox News's "O'Reilly Factor" and on NBC's "Today Show" this morning and on MSNBC today - Daveed Gartenstein-Ross on Fox News - Evan and Walid Phares were on Rita Cosby's show on MSNBC last night (transcript only). Thanks to Intelligence Summit for the videos (except the "O'Reilly" and "Today Show" videos, which are courtesy of The Investigative Project on Terrorism).

NY Subway Threat: The Terrorists options

By Walid Phares

Walid Phares

The first question that comes to mind is about the discrepancy between Washington and New York. Is it about analysis of the information, or is it disagreement on translations, context and credibility? Is it a conflict of expert opinions, and in this case, are the decision makers relying on the Government's experts for their disagreement with each other? Certainly this is an interesting track, in view of past experiences on both sides of the Atlantic.

But assuming that the discrepancy in assessment between NY security authorities and the Homeland Security is resolved, and that a "one reading" of the information is reached, and assuming that -in general terms- a threat somewhat "exist" or "existed" let's explore the other side's reaction.

NYPD Closes Parts of Penn Station for Suspicious Substance & More on Yesterday's Threat Report - Suspect Arrested in Iraq (updated)

By Andrew Cochran

Penn Station partially shut down after Amtrak found a suspicious package near the ticket counter. CNN & MSNBC cite NYPD sources: "Soapy" or "bubbly" green substance in soda can found there and sent to New York EPA for testing (MSNBC showed video of something on floor) - Amtrak spokesman says nothing toxic. Mayor Bloomberg & NYPD supposed to hold press conference soon. Entrance at 33rd & 8th was closed, as was portion of concourse above tracks, but Amtrak boarded some trains throughout the incident, and Penn Station back to normal operations.

Yesterday's Threat Report: Fox News reports that DHS is still dubious about yesterday's threat announcement, but the suspect who was source of threat apparently passed a lie detector test. ABC News reports that the threat source "has identified at least one of the attackers by name and claims that the man already is in the United States" and "one of two Iraq insurgents who were sources for the threat information said when arrested, reportedly in perfect English: 'You f�-ing can't stop us now; it's too late.'" The "Terrorism Unveiled" blog has some interesting details on the background of the Iraq arrestees.

SUSPECT ARRESTED IN IRAQ: "(T)hird suspect was arrested in Iraq and authorities looked into whether a fourth person had traveled to New York as part of the scheme, officials said...'Does that mean a fourth person he identified is in fact in New York? We don't know that.' The official added that authorities had not confirmed whether the fourth man even exists."

Saudi Arabia's involvement in the Bali bombings

By Olivier Guitta

Even after the October 2002 Bali bombing, the madrassas where most of the terrorists were trained, are still up and running spreading their hatred and breeding new jihadists. On top of these Koranic schools and radical mosques, Jemaah Islamiyah can count on the financial support of numerous Islamic NGOs.
According to Richard Labeviere, expert on Radical Islam, JI's legal and non-legal activities have been financed since the 1980's by big Saudi banks based in Kualu Lumpur and Jakarta. After a pause around September 2001, financing has resumed. Also Labeviere points out that Saudi financiers are more and more present in South East Asia. And they are not really hiding their Wahhabi proselytism in Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines and South Thailand.

Saudi Arabia has not been clamping down on its charities, especially the big governmental ones such as the World Muslim League, and not enough is being done to cooperate with US authorities.

Terrorism and Data Protection: Balancing Privacy and Security

By Victor Comras

The threat of terrorism has given rise over the past four years to an expanding array of new security measures in Europe and here at home that intrude into areas previously considered by many as protected by rights of privacy. The 9/11 attacks provided impetus for Congress to pass the Patriot Act, and the Madrid and London bombings prompted the EU and its member countries to provide their local authorities with new unprecedented access to what was previously considered private and personal data. Now, privacy rights advocates and others are beginning to press home their own concerns. A new debate is being engaged in the U.S. Senate, and in the EU Commission, as to whether the current anti-terrorism measures are too intrusive and damaging to legitimate rights of privacy. The U.S. business community has also enter the fray. They are pushing the Senate to cut back, or place new controls and limitations on Patriot Act investigative powers. And in Europe, the EU Commission, under pressure from its Privacy Rights Directorate, has just proposed new measures to protect against European government data inquiry abuse.

The Patriot Act is up for renewal this session, and final Senate action is expected before the end of the year. Concerned with consumer privacy, and the burden that government records searches place on businesses, the US Chamber of Commerce, the National Association of Manufacturers, the National Association of Realtors, the Association of Corporate Counsel, the Financial Services Roundtable and Business Civil Liberties, Inc have just called on the Senate to cut back on the Patriot Act�s own investigative intrusiveness. Their letter to Senate Judiciary Committee Chairman Arlen Spector states plainly thir concern that "the rights of businesses to confidential files � records about our customers or our employees, as well as our trade secrets and other proprietary information � can too easily be obtained and disseminated under investigative powers expanded by the Patriot Act. It is our belief that these new powers lack sufficient checks and balances� (For a copy of the full letter click here.) These national business groups want Congress to amend the Patriot Act to require a statement of fact and some linkage between the records sought and the individual suspected of being a terrorist or spy and to provide for a meaningful right to challenge the order. The sentiments in the letter are closely aligned to those being expressed by diverse other groups including, for example, Librarians, the NRA, and the ACLU. All have asked for new oversight and control measures.

Similarly, EU Justice Commissioner Franco Frattini has just presented a new set of proposals to protect against government abuse of the EU�s new anti-terrorism data access and retention requirements. These measures would be used to balance the new data retention measures which allows for unprecedented levels of information gathering and exchange among EU countries. This would include new rules on confidentiality, security of processing systems, judicial remedies and government liability. The measures would also cut back considerably on earlier proposed counter-terrorism information sharing arrangements. Personal data could only be transferred to third countries in �very exceptional cases.� These proposals still must be considered by the EU Council and Parliament.

After Bali, New York a "recidivist" target, but awaiting evidence

By Walid Phares

Walid Phares

Several indicators, including exchanges on the chat rooms (on the ansar among others) over the past days, show a strategic intention, or let's call it an intense focus on "recidivism." What was portrayed as "the success of the second strike of Bali," was used by chatters to call for "second" and more strikes on ex-attacked targets. One sentence was very indicative: "kama duribat Bali marratein, satudrab mudunun kafira ukhra." Translation: "As how Bali was hit twice, so will other infidel cities be hit as well." The term "twice" is indicative of the high Jihadi excitement to strike two times: the thrill of psychological effect based on what some Jihadi have called "abathiyat al tassaddi lil mujahidin."  Translation: "The impossibility to stop the Jihadists." In simple English, if they decide to hit the same city twice, they will, with no obstruction. Hence psychologically, a recidivist strike on New York is high on the Jihadists agenda. Moreover..

NY Subways on Heightened Terrorism Alert (updated)

By Andrew Cochran

LAST POST AT 6:50 pm ET. NYPD & FBI & Mayor Bloomberg press conference on heightened threat "in the coming days": Mayor Bloomberg: this is first threat of this specificity and this event isn't tied to Jewish holy days or specific religion - Ray Kelly says "not corroborated" but worthy of action - asking public to curtail use of bags, suitcases, etc. for short term - stepped-up bag searches starting now. Info started overseas, had been "partially disrupted," and could be resolved in next couple of days. Nothing in actions "has corroborated actual threat to the city...multiple individuals, some of whom have been resolved." No arrests or detainments in NYC thus far. Terror threat level in NYC not raised - still at "orange" level.

AP story cites law enforcement official who said threat is specific to place, time, & method. Chairman of U.S. House Homeland Security Committee, Rep. Peter King, quoted as saying that NYPD Commissioner Kelly told him of "credible security threat."

COMMENT: LOTS of inconsistent and cautious information from official and other CT Blog sources - DHS and NYPD clearly do not agree on this info. For instance, MSNBC: "Sources told NBC that the information came from a single informant of varying credibility...A homeland security official tells NBC News that though the source has "doubtful" credibility, the heightened security in NY is necessary out of an abundance of caution. The source has apparently given some accurate information in the past, and some inaccurate." CNN reports that DHS sources said that the threat was deemed "not viable" although investigation still ongoing, indicating that DHS possibly would not have released info to public. Fox News & CNN first reported that their DHS sources indicate NO specific credible threat. CBS News's Jim Stewart cites a source that this is "imagination run amok," with no suspects currently in the U.S.

ABC News: "The New York City Police Department is investigating what it deems a credible tip that 19 operatives have been deployed to New York to place bombs in the subway, and security in the subways will be increased, sources told ABC News...According to sources in intelligence, emergency services and police headquarters, when three Iraqi insurgents were arrested several days ago during a raid by a joint FBI-CIA team, one of those caught disclosed the threat. Because it slipped out during the arrest, the plot was deemed credible. After several days of work, sources said, the NYPD is increasingly concerned because it has been unable to discredit the initial source and additional information from the source. The 19 operatives were to place improvised explosive devices in the subways using briefcases, according to two sources. Police Commissioner Ray Kelly said officers will continue to check bags, briefcases, luggage and strollers, and additional uniformed and undercover officers will be riding in individual subway cars. The police are deploying additional officers, dogs and heavy weapons teams in subways and commuter rail terminals, sources said. Department of Homeland Security sources told ABC News they are very doubtful the threat information is credible, though NYPD sources said the information continues to come in and is disturbing. "

Fox News cites NYPD source for its "19 suitcase bombs" claims. Pentagon cites that raid, highly classified, south of Baghdad to CNN. "Significant intel and al Qaeda operatives" gathered in that raid - military and "other government agencies" involved - that raid let officials release info. MSNBC: "Officials told NBC that the informant said attackers would try to smuggle explosives onto the New York train system � possibly in baby carriages � in an imitation of the London and Madrid attacks, several sources told NBC."

Steven Emerson on MSNBC: Best intel will be eyes & ears of commuters - we might learn of ongoing operation - release of this info might result in loss of suspects under investigation.

Video Updates from Oklahoma

By Daveed Gartenstein-Ross

There are some interesting video updates on the possible suicide bomber from the local Oklahoma press (all courtesy of News 9 in Oklahoma City).

A first report states that Joel Hinrichs may have tried to enter the football stadium from two different gates.  He reportedly had a ticket to the game.  The most concrete piece of information in the report comes from a student who says that a security guard working gate security told him that a young man with a backpack had tried to enter the stadium.  When the guard tried to search the backpack, he says that the man wearing the backpack sprinted away.  This is not a usual occurrence at Oklahoma University football games; the clear implication is that it may have been Hinrichs who sprinted off.

A second report explains that Norman police have confirmed that Hinrichs attempted to buy ammonium nitrate a few days before blowing himself up.  An off-duty police officer was in the Ellison Feed and Seed store at the time that Hinrichs was there.  Both the store owner and officer became suspicious because Hinrichs was unable to answer basic questions about how much ammonium nitrate he wanted and why he needed it.  The officer then followed Hinrichs to where he was parked, got his tag number, re-entered the store and contacted the Norman police department with the tag number.

Bush's speech: Finally the "ISM" word was uttered!

By Walid Phares

Walid Phares

Finally, four years after the bloodiest Jihadi attack on the Western Hemisphere, and perhaps worldwide, the President of the United States named the enemy: He used the "ISM" word. It was lastly uttered..

In his speech this morning Text, President Bush said: "Some call this (ideology) evil Islamic radicalism, others, militant Jihadism, still others, Islamo-facism. Whatever it's called, this ideology (...) serves a vision: the establishment, by terrorism and subversion and insurgency, of a totalitarian empire." Then he goes on to describe its strategies, the US counter plans and the rationale of American moves around the world to fight the War on Terror. While I'll post later a global analysis of the speech, looking at the advances and the misses, one significant step has been made: Ladies and Gentlemen: we have the names of the enemy...

France is on high alert

By Olivier Guitta

A week after arresting nine suspected terrorists, French police arrested four more on Monday. They are suspected to be part of the Safe Bourrada cell. Among the four, two are French men converted to Islam while in jail. Indeed, prison is one of the best recruiting venues for Islamists.
Furthermore French anti-terror judge Jean Louis Brugiere declared to Le Figaro:
"The terrorist threat is high. Never ever has the radicalization been so strong; We are witnessing a change of the networks with new actors including younger and younger recruits, even sometimes minors." For instance, the youngest French jihadist on record was a fourteen-year-old of Malian descent who went to fight in Iraq and was killed in July 2004 by US troops.
Regarding converts, Brugiere added:"They are without any doubts the most radical. Also women are converting for the cause." In fact, jihadists are always on the lookout for a French woman because she cannot be easily spotted and also by marrying her, the jihadist gets right away French legal status.
In fact, terrorist cells are adapting and are now recruiting new individuals who are way below the radar.

Suicide Bomber in Oklahoma?

By Daveed Gartenstein-Ross

There's an interesting story out of Oklahoma that has gotten surprisingly little media attention.  Joel Hinrichs III died on Saturday after apparently detonating an explosive device while sitting on a bench about 100 yards from Oklahoma University's football stadium during the Kansas State-Oklahoma University game.  There's speculation that Hinrichs may have been a suicide bomber.

Obviously, some terrorism experts have had bad experiences trying to make sense of past events in Oklahoma -- and it's good that the media didn't make a spectacle of this incident before the facts became known.  However, information has come to light in the past couple of days that makes this case worthy of more sustained attention.  First of all, a local TV station has reported that Hinrichs had been attending the same mosque in Norman, Oklahoma that alleged 9/11 "twentieth hijacker" Zacarias Moussaoui frequented.  On top of that, Dustin Ellison, a feed store operator in Norman, claims that Hinrichs attempted to purchase ammonium nitrate a few days before his death.  The store didn't carry the product because of federal guidelines regarding its sale.  Ammonium nitrate was a key ingredient in the 1995 Oklahoma City bombing.

A local television station reports that sources have stated that one of the components in the bomb used by Hinrichs was triacetone triperoxide (TATP).  TATP is relatively easy to make, and is one of the most sensitive explosives.  Attempted shoe bomber Richard Reid had TATP in his shoes.

Local television in Oklahoma is also reporting that Hinrichs attempted twice to enter the Kansas State-OU game before he exploded.

However, the FBI released a statement Tuesday announcing "that there is no current threat posed by additional explosive materials, that there is no known threat from anyone else related to the incident and that there is no known link between Hinrichs and any terrorist or extremist organization or activities."

What to make of these various facts?  A definitive conclusion cannot be drawn at this point.  The FBI's statement seems to reflect the fact that the Bureau couldn't find additional threats or links between Hinrichs and terrorist organizations in the three days following the incident; I don't take it to mean that they've investigated exhaustively and determined that no such links exist.  Oklahoma University officials and Hinrichs's father have played down any possible terrorism link.  Hinrichs's father said that Hinrichs was skeptical of ideology in general, and that "Joe would have become a Muslim fanatic when pigs fly."  Alan Swann, a psychiatrist at the University of Texas Medical School in Houston, stated that this may have been an intentional suicide, but that if it was, Hinrichs probably wasn't trying to hurt anybody else.  He did allow, however, that blowing yourself up with a bomb is an unusual method of committing suicide if you don't intend to harm anyone else.

Indeed it is.  Perhaps Hinrichs's attendance of the mosque that Moussaoui attended and his attempt to purchase ammonium nitrate have reasonable explanations unrelated to terrorism.  (Or perhaps the sources are wrong about this information; one hesitation I have about drawing conclusions in this case is that many of the reported facts are based on fairly sketchy sourcing.)  However, there's enough to this story that it deserves more attention.  It would be significant if Hinrichs had been motivated by radical Islam.

Are Immigrations Officials Rubber-Stamping Green Cards Just to Meet Quotas?

By Michael Cutler

Here we go again! More tales of incompetence by a division of an agency that has been given the name, "Department of Homeland Security." These stories about virtually nonexistent borders, lawyers accused of collaborating with clients to secure residency based on fraud with some of those aliens coming from countries known to have significant al Qaeda activity and the slipshod manner in which residency and citizenship applications are adjudicated by overworked adjudicators. Now, according to information that is "out there" and noted by my former INS colleague and current Counterterrorism Blog colleague Bill West, temporary employees are being trained in a highly abbreviated training program being conducted at FLETC (Federal Law Enforcement Training Center) to enable them to decide who should be naturalized and given United States citizenship. I believe it was the comedian Groucho Marx who in essence said, "I wouldn't want to belong to an organization that would have me as a member!"

Temporary employees should not be entrusted with adjudicating applications for United States citizenship. But then, considering the way that we are blurring the distinction between aliens who are legally present in the United States and aliens who are illegally present in the United States, perhaps this administration just does not care who we naturalize. Certainly the last administration thoroughly fouled up the process known as "Citizenship USA" that I discussed in an e-mail I sent out in the last couple of days, and showed how little quality mattered when compared with the drive to produce as many new citizens as possible. I used to sarcastically suggest that we could eliminate the illegal alien crisis by declaring anyone born on the planet Earth to be a United States citizen and then ICE could focus on only going after those who arrived by flying saucer. Perhaps we could then refer to these agents as the "Men In Black!"

U.S. Government Pressing Saudi Arabia on Indoctrination

By Daveed Gartenstein-Ross

One factor that all Islamic terrorists have in common is exposure to radical theology.  Today, Saudi Arabia's Wahhabi sect is the world's biggest propagator of radical Islam.  I've touched on this issue in my recent article "Wahhabi Prison Fellowship," and in an earlier post on the Freedom House's report "Saudi Publications on Hate Ideology Fill American Mosques."  Saudi literature regularly incites readers to fight in jihad against non-Muslims; is filled with virulent anti-Semitism and animus toward Christians and moderate Muslims; condemns secular government as fundamentally illegitimate; and features harsh edicts regarding the treatment of women.

An article by Meghan Clyne in today's New York Sun describes a "flurry of activity" on the issue of Wahhabist indoctrination.  The first shot fired was the Saudi Arabia Accountability Act of 2005, introduced this June, the stated purpose of which is "to halt Saudi support for institutions that fund, train, incite, encourage, or in any other way aid and abet terrorism, and to secure fully Saudi cooperation in the investigation of terrorist incidents."  Clyne reports that last week "the State Department pressed Saudi officials for answers" about Saudi Arabia's distribution of radical material when undersecretary for public diplomacy and public affairs Karen Hughes visited the Middle East.  After Hughes became the first American official to raise the issue with Saudi journalists, she commented, "We had been raising the issue privately, and as part of raising difficult issues that we need to discuss, I felt it was appropriate."

Also, the Senate Judiciary Committee will hold October 25 hearings on Saudi theological indoctrination.  The Committee expects testimony from the State Department, FBI, Freedom House and terrorism experts.  William Reynolds, a spokesman for Sen. Specter, said that high on the agenda will be determining whether the Saudi government has taken steps to stop the distribution of radical materials.

In the past, the White House hasn't done a good job of building a public case against Saudi Arabia's radical Islamist indoctrination.  I'm not convinced that it has turned a corner yet, but there are encouraging signs.  And a little prodding from the Senate can't hurt.

Immigration Benefits?Will They Ever Learn?

By Bill West

On October 3, the Washington Times ran a report about allegations that some adjudication officers working in the US Citizenship and Immigration Service (CIS) agency, the immigration benefit agency under the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) that took over the immigration benefit adjudication responsibility from the now defunct Immigration and Naturalization Service (INS), have improperly granted immigration benefits, including naturalized US citizenship, to foreign nationals in return for bribes and other favors, including sexual favors. The Washington Times article stated there are some 2500 outstanding allegations under investigation, and some include CIS employees who are �being influenced by foreign governments.� CT Blog expert Mike Cutler has also just posted on this topic.

The information for the Washington Times report came from closed Congressional hearings held last week wherein a Government internal affairs investigator briefed Congressional sources. While allegations of misconduct are just that, and are not proof of wrongdoing, this information still remains highly disturbing. The old INS was perennially plagued with very serious problems in its benefits granting division. It was for many years under-resourced and overwhelmed with workload. For years, backlog reduction was the priority over quality adjudication, notwithstanding the bureaucratic rhetoric.

U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Service Corruption Promotes Rampant Immigration Fraud

By Michael Cutler

Yesterday's Washington Times story, about employees of the U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Service (CIS) allegedly exchanging immigration benefits for sex and accepting bribes, should be of great concern to all of us. It fills me with anger, frustration and a feeling of betrayal. While I certainly believe that, as our system of justice provides, a person is innocent until proven guilty, the large number and severity of the allegations causes me to believe that their is a high probability that corruption has been involved. You know that I worked for the former INS for approximately 30 years, having begun my career with the INS as an Immigration Inspector assigned to John F. Kennedy International Airport in October 1971. In 1973 I volunteered to act as an examiner or adjudications officer assigned to the unit that was charged with the responsibility of determining if aliens should be granted resident alien status based on their marriages to either citizens of the United States or aliens who had, themselves, acquired resident alien status. The methodology was essentially simple; I would interview each spouse separately to determine if they were living together. In some cases, they were totally unprepared for the interview and the discrepancies were so glaring and obvious that it was readily apparent that they had engaged in a marriage fraud. My colleagues and I took great pride in the fact that we ran a highly ethical unit. To read about the corruption that is apparently running rampant outrages me as a citizen of the country and especially as a former INS official. I truly feel sorrow for the honest men and women who work for USCIS who will bear a heck of a burden for some time to come.

We need many more special agents to conduct investigations in support of the adjudications program to make certain that this critical area has meaningful integrity. I have made the statement at Congressional hearings as well as at public appearances that if it is the prospect of employment that draws the bulk of the illegal aliens currently present in our country across our nation's borders, it is through immigration benefit fraud that illegal aliens, including drug traffickers, gang members and terrorists are able to remain here and "hide in plain sight" or as the 911 Commission referred to it, "Embed themselves in our country."

Islamist Parties and Terrorism: Hidayat Nur Wahid?s Inanity and Why He Deserves a Second Look

By Zachary Abuza

In April 2004, Indonesia held parliamentary elections, deemed as the freest and fairest in the country�s history. The surprise in that election was how well the Islamist parties did. In the 1999 elections held in the immediate aftermath of the fall of the strongman Soeharto, Islamist parties only carried 14 percent of the popular vote and 16 percent of the seats, and most analysts assumed that they would fair no better in 2004. Yet in last year�s election, depending on how you categorize the parties (Islamist, Islamist but becoming more moderate, Muslim but not Islamist, etc), they garnered 21.3 percent of the vote. The party that did the best was the Prosperous Justice Party (PKS) with 7.3 percent of the vote, including in the capital of Jakarta. For more on the role of Islamist parties in Indonesian politics see the author's study Uncivil Islam: Muslim, Politics and Violence in Indonesia available here link

Many people asserted that PKS� share of the vote increased by 650% between 1999 and 2004 because they down played their Islamist agenda. They never spoke publicly about establishing an Islamic state, or the imposition of sharia. The Muslim Brotherhood-linked cadre party focused on anti-corruption and good governance; incredibly popular in a country that year after year is ranked as one of the world�s most corrupt. But their commitment to sharia and the gradual imposition of Islamic law remains unchanged. The party expects to make significant gains in 2009, and publicly states that their goal is to attain the presidency in the 2014 election. Though PKS is a member of President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono�s ruling coalition, they have a vested interest in thwarting progress of the secular state.

Many people have hoped that by being part of the ruling coalition, by being engaged in electoral politics PKS would have to temper � if not completely abandon - their Islamist agenda. They have done nothing of the sort, and instead injected Islamist aspects into all pieces of the legislation. They can�t have the whole salami at once, so they are doing it a slice at a time.

The former head and spiritual leader of the PKS (and their likely presidential candidate), Hidayat Nur Wahid, is a Saudi trained cleric, who has never made a secret of his financial and theological links to the Kingdom. Following his party�s success in the 2004 election, he became the speaker of the upper house of parliament.

And yet he is a man who has gone and met with Abu Bakar Bashir the spiritual head of JI in prison in a show of Islamic solidarity. It was his influence that many believe led to Bashir�s appalling light sentence of 30 months, despite his acknowledged role as the head of JI.

One might not expect Hidayat Nur Wahid to come out and condemn the bombing, though one would wish he did. For that matter, the Ulama�s Council of Indonesia has made nary a peep about the attacks. Recently they have issued hard-line fatwahs attacking progressive Muslim organizations and scholars, such as the Liberal Islam Network, while Islamic militants have recently attacked Ahmadiya mosques.

But what is most galling is Hidayat Nur Wahid�s comments in today�s Sydney Morning Herald link link in which he blamed the bombings on rivalry within the tourism industry:
"I have valid information that these acts may be related to interstate competition in the tourism industry," he said.
This is an outrage. Indonesian Muslims should not stand for this inanity. This was the work of a violent Islamist organization committed to brining about an Islamic state in Indonesia through violence and fear. Indonesians should stand up for the progressive, tolerant Islam that has promoted democracy, tolerance, women�s and human rights.

And the Indonesian government must ban JI. Under the current law, membership within JI is technically not illegal. They cannot keep on hiding behind the claims that since JI is not registered, it cannot be banned, nor can they claim that it is pointless to ban something that "is not a formal organization with card-carrying members."

Bali Investigation Update

By Zachary Abuza

The Sydney Morning Herald is reporting that Indonesian police have interviewed 39 witnesses in conjunction with Saturday night�s three suicide bombings. They have admitted that two people are in custody, though they have not charged them as suspects. Police acknowledged that one of the two has identified one of the bombers. Police have conducted raids of suspected safe houses in Bali (at least three rented homes in Bali's capital, Denpasar), and Java. For the full SMH article click here. link

Nine-volt batteries found at the scene suggest that the suicide bombers manually detonated their devices, rather than relying on remote cell phone detonation. One eyewitness from one of the two Jimbaran Beach bombings has told investigators he saw a suicide bomber unzip his jacket and perhaps pull a cord, triggering the device.
Also recovered at scenes were ball bearings, batteries, cables and detonators. In a related note, many of these materials as well as TNT were recovered by Indonesian police in a July 2005 raid on a militant safe-house in East Java.

Right now the investigation is focused on the positive identification of the bombers, essential both to the investigation in that it will help authorities identify the other cell members but also identify the channels in which people are being recruited. For example, from a CT perspective, it makes a large difference whether these individuals come out of the conflict regions of Poso or Sulawesi or if they are middle-class urbanites or if they are students from radical madrassas.

The Indonesian government continues to rebuff international calls to ban JI. Under the current law, membership within JI is technically not illegal.

More "Mythical" Foreign Fighters Reported Killed in Iraq

By Evan Kohlmann

Supporters of Abu Musab al-Zarqawi's Al-Qaida faction have announced the deaths of two more supposedly "mythical" foreign fighters in Iraq.  On September 25, Abu Muaz al-Kuwaiti--a former soldier in the Kuwaiti Army--was reported killed during a "boating accident" while engaged in jihad in Iraq (English translation c/o Globalterroralert.com).  According to his comrade Abu al-Zubair al-Maqour, Abu Muaz had previously attempted to join Al-Qaida in Afghanistan only to be captured by Iranian security forces on the Afghan border and held prisoner for several months.  Likewise, Abu Muaz' first trip seeking jihad in Iraq during 2004 also met with failure: "everyone was suspicious of him and every time he asked about the mujahideen in front of a mosque, the people would ignore him because he was a total stranger."  One might wonder how local security forces could allow a known Islamic militant like Abu Muaz to enter and leave Kuwait seemingly at will.

Today, the Asbat al-Ansar movement in Lebanon has also announced the "martyrdom" of one of its members, Saleh Deeb al-Shayyib, who was reportedly killed on the morning of October 1 during "confrontations with the crusader forces in Mesopotamia."  Asbat al-Ansar has been named by the U.S. government as both a Specially Designated Global Terrorist (SDGT) and a Foreign Terrorist Organization (FTO).  In January 2005, the United States Treasury Department announced that a member of Zarqawi's Shura Council in Iraq "was assigned by Zarqawi to train members of Asbat al-Ansar in preparing forged documents" and "also brought $10,000 for Abu Muhjin, the leader of Asbat al-Ansar, from Zarqawi."

Zarqawi's supporters have also responded to the recent release of a report on Iraq's foreign fighters by Anthony Cordesman and Nawaf Obeid at CSIS--referring to it as "ridiculous nonsense", "hilarious", and the result of "misleading... estimates originating from apostate tyrants."  One respondent to the CSIS report wrote simply, "dear brothers, they are not only liars, but stupid as well."  Other respondents estimated the total number of foreign mujahideen in Iraq as between 3,000-5,000 fighters.

Checking in on the NYPD's Anti-Terror Policing

By Daveed Gartenstein-Ross

An interesting article in yesterday's New York Daily News entitled "New York's Secret War on Terror" examines the steps the NYPD has taken to try to improve its anti-terror policing.

Some of these steps are encouraging.  For example, the NYPD is now teaching cops about radical Islamic ideology.  Intelligence research specialist Daniel Rudder is conducting a seminar called "The Evolution of Militant Sunni Ideology."  He told the class:  "This is a historical study, of how different ideologies have twisted Islam.  It will help in your investigations and interviews . . . raise red flags."  Rudder also wrote a 135-page report exploring topics such as transnational Islamic militancy, which will serve as "the backbone of the training program for investigators in the Joint Terrorist Task Force and Intelligence."  Although only 35 people are taking that class at present, the Daily News reports that "that number will grow substantially."

In addition to training police about radical theology, the NYPD's anti-terror strategy also includes "cops who have honed lingustic skills and the investigators of Middle Eastern or Asian descent who work in the cyber unit, penetrating overseas chat rooms to glean references to possible attacks."  Additionally, one of the department's intelligence bureau lieutenants is involved in the investigation of Rafik al-Hariri's assassination in Lebanon, and other NYPD detectives traveled to the Netherlands to enhance their understanding of the threat of radical Islam after Theo van Gogh's murder.

The least encouraging part of the article is the NYPD's discussion of how it's attempting to protect the mass transit system.  As most CT Blog readers know, New York has implemented entirely random searches of bags at key subway stops.  However, as I discuss in my July 15 article "Toward Intelligent Anti-Terror Policing," identifying those who are most likely to be terrorists (in other words, profiling) is crucial to protecting the mass transit system.  Otherwise, we squander resources and are left with suboptimal policing.  Completely random bag searches are the antithesis of intelligent policing.  So what did Police Commissioner Raymond Kelly tell the Daily News in defense of these random searches?  I quote:  "In certain circles we are concerned about, the implementation of the bag searches in the transit system had been discussed."

U.S. Treasury Dept. Targets Egyptian Islamic Jihad Members for Terrorism Sanctions

By Andrew Cochran

The U.S. Treasury Department has officially designated seven members of the Egyptian Islamic Jihad terrorist group, thus prohibiting transactions by U.S. persons with them and freezing any assets which the seven might hold in the U.S. The Treasury Department press release: "The activities of these individuals included training and providing material support to al Qaida, as well as conspiring to commit terrorist acts. One of the individuals, Madhat Mursi Al-Sayyid Umar, was an explosives and chemical substances specialist for al Qaida. Another designee, Abdullah Muhammad Rajab Abd Al-Rahman, was responsible for coordinating al Qaida's work with other terrorist organizations. These individuals are wanted by Egyptian authorities for their involvement in terrorist cases and membership in a terrorist organization."

EIJ is also known as Islamic Jihad, al-Jihad, and the Jihad Group. Active since the 1970s, EIJ�s primary goal has been the overthrow and assassination of secular Egyptian government officials in favor of an Islamic state. EIJ was responsible for the 1981 assassination of Egyptian President Anwar Sadat and attempted other assassinations. Osama bin Ladin�s deputy, Ayman al-Zawahiri, was the head of EIJ until it merged with al Qaida in 2001. Mohammed Atef, another senior EIJ leader, was killed in a U.S. bombing raid in Afghanistan shortly after the 9/11 attacks.

The Treasury Department action also results in a referral to the U.N. Security Council, which will probably add the seven EIJ terrorists very soon to its consolidated list of terrorists tied to the Taliban, al Qaida and OBL.

Blood in Bali: The strategic questions

By Walid Phares

Walid Phares

Summary of analysis: The Bali II bombing's most salient dimension is "terrorism recidivism." Compare it to a second Mohammad Atta team hitting Manhattan's skyscrapers next September: the immediate reaction of New Yorkers would be disbelief. But beyond the psychological effect what is behind the multi-targeted attack? First, and while Indonesian authorities assert they've warned from new attacks, "Jemaah" and its sisters have never really stopped their war despite the arrest of their spiritual mentor. Second, and as well noted by our colleague and expert Zachary Abuza, the group changed its tactics, and more precisely the delivery system. In my piece published today Blood in Bali, I raise five themes:

1)  "Jemaah" is not a seasonal group, it is network that recruits, deploys, gathers resources, strikes, absorbs reaction (including the arrests of its leaders and mentor), and reorganizes.

2) The jihadists' aim at what I call "triggering valves." Bali is one of them. Samuel Huntington called such areas in his book The Clash of Civilizations "fault lines."

3) The Bali second attack aim at economic crumbling and rallying other groups

4) Focusing on Bali would release attention from other spots in Indonesia for sinister activities

5) "Jemaah"'s relations with al Qaida are complex. They may fluctuate operationally, but they are strategic globally.

The killers' new tactic: smaller bombs, more often

By Zachary Abuza

Assessing the evidence, what can we learn? Saturday's attack in Bali raises troubling questions.

The likely perpetrator of the weekend bombings in Bali is Jemaah Islamiah. It is the only organisation in Indonesia with the capability and will to target a tourist venue, such as Bali, and it has the track record.

Jemaah Islamiah has been responsible for three major bombings, happening almost yearly: Bali in October 2002, the Marriott hotel in Jakarta in August 2003 and the Australian embassy in September 2004.

For the full op-ed in today's Sydney Morning Herald click here: link

London Redux? Correction/UPDATE on the Bali Bombings: SUICIDE BOMBERS EMPLOYED.

By Zachary Abuza

In attacks that are eerily reminiscent of the London bombings, Indonesian officials have revealed that the three bombings were conducted by suicide bombers carrying between 5-10 kilograms of explosives in bags and/or belts.

"The modus operandi is very similar to the previous bombings, the use of backpacks, whose remnants were found at the scene of the blasts. By the evidence we can conclude the bombers were carrying the explosives around their waists,� said counter-terrorism chief, Major General Ansyaad Mbai.

26 people were killed, including 3 Australians and 2 Japanese. 118 were injured.

The Real "Number 2" of Al-Qaida in Iraq Speaks Out

By Evan Kohlmann

Following in the heels of my blog posts (here and here) and this week's Newsweek story on the subject, Al-Qaida's Committee in Iraq--led by Abu Musab al-Zarqawi--has published a letter dated October 1, 2005 from the "real" Deputy Commander of Al-Qaida in Iraq: Abu Abdelrahman al-Iraqi (for previous statements made by Abu Abdelraman al-Iraqi, see here and here).  Abu Abdelrahman's latest letter--addressed personally to Zarqawi--boasts:

"The cries from the infidel leaders and their supporters have changed from threatening tones to screams of agony and pain due to their predicament in Mesopotamia... These fools have nothing more than televised victories and occasional statements that are dispatched about the killing of an Al-Qaida commander, the capture of [Abu Musab] al-Zarqawi's deputy, or the death of his deputy.  These lies... will lay the path for their own defeat, which they will soon witness--if Allah wills it."

Click to view English translation c/o Globalterroralert.com

The Dynamic Terrorist Organization: The Implications of the Bali Bombings for Jemaah Islamiyah

By Zachary Abuza

The likely perpetrator of the 1 October bombings in Bali in which some 25 have been confirmed dead and 100 wounded is Jemaah Islamiyah. JI was formerly close to Al Qaeda, though that relationship has been in doubt owing to concerted counter-terror operations that have led to the arrests of much of the respective organization�s leadership.

What are the implications of these attacks? Rather than a major truck-bomb on an annual basis, we�ll be seeing a lot more attacks like the recent ones in Bali, against highly vulnerable soft targets.

Will Prince Waleed Change Fox's Terrorism Coverage?

By Daveed Gartenstein-Ross

Frank Gaffney has an article in yesterday's Front Page Magazine analyzing the possible effect of Prince Waleed bin Talal's new voting stake in the News Corporation, which owns the Fox News Network.  Following a challenge to Rupert Murdoch's control of NewsCorp, Prince Waleed stepped in, shifting his NewsCorp stock from non-voting to voting shares and increasing his stake from 3% to 5.46%.  Since 9/11, Fox has been an important critic of Islamic radicalism, and has broadcast a number of hard-hitting stories exposing Saudi Arabia's pernicious Wahhabi indoctrination.  Gaffney asks a vital question:  Will Prince Waleed's share in NewsCorp change Fox's coverage of the war on terror?

Gaffney notes that Prince Waleed's 5.46% stake makes him NewsCorp's fourth largest voting shareholder.  Prince Waleed, it should be remembered, visited Ground Zero shortly after the 9/11 attacks and offered then-NYC Mayor Rudy Giuliani a $10 million check for relief efforts.  However, the money was followed in short order by Prince Waleed's statement linking 9/11 to U.S. support for Israel:

At times like this one, we must address some of the issues that led to such a criminal attack. I believe the government of the United States of America should re-examine its policies in the Middle East and adopt a more balanced stance toward the Palestinian cause.

In response, Giuliani returned Prince Waleed's check, stating that "[t]here is no moral equivalent for this attack," and that the terrorists "lost any right to ask for justification when they slaughtered . . . innocent people."  In fact, he said that Prince Waleed's statements were not only wrong, but that "they're part of the problem."

With this background in mind, here's how Gaffney frames the question of what Prince Waleed's impact on NewsCorp will be:

Can we rely on Rupert Murdoch to keep the Saudi prince from abusing his new platforms?  Perhaps not.  After all, Mr. Murdoch is having succession, financial, and other problems with his business empire.  In fact, he was reportedly so concerned about losing control of the News Corporation that he arranged to put a "poison pill" defense in place to stop a hostile takeover bid from one of his rivals, media magnate John Malone. . . .  While a senior Fox executive recently (privately) professed no concern on this score, the track record of Prince Al-Waleed, the Islamist interests of his family and kingdom, and the needs of Rupert Murdoch could constitute the media equivalent of a "perfect storm."  They may, indeed, translate into a worrisome new set of constraints on the network millions of Americans have come to rely upon for "fair and balanced" reporting.

I've appeared on the Fox News Channel with some frequency and have found it to be an excellent vehicle for disseminating important stories related to terrorism and Islamic extremism.  In fact, one of my recent appearances on The Big Story with John Gibson criticized the hateful messages in some of the Saudi literature distributed in the U.S. prison system.  While Prince Waleed's stake in NewsCorp does not necessarily mean that this will change, the situation is worth keeping an eye on.

Indonesia giving in to Radical Islam?

By Olivier Guitta

After today�s bombings most probably orchestrated by the Jemaah Islamiyah, as explained in detail by Zachary and Andy, it�s not a coincidence that Radical Islam is gaining ground in Indonesia. Says Sydney Jones, head of the International Crisis Group in Jakarta, �Indonesia will never become Saudi Arabia but it is trending towards a more conservative Islam. Indonesians do not speak Arabic but thanks to Middle East trained imams, they realize that the Islam they have been practicing is far away from the Koranic precepts.�
So, for instance even if in 2003, the Indonesian Parliament voted against the installation of the Sharia- Islamic law-, it nonetheless passed a law discriminating against non-Muslims schools. Also the �moderate� elite is denying the JI�s existence and accusing the CIA of the 2002 Bali bombing. Lastly, the Ulema Council, the highest Islamic authority, recently issued a fatwa condemning religious diversity.
Incidentally in the past few weeks, members of another Islamist group the Islamic Defenders� front, also known as FPI, have forced the closing of numerous Christian churches.

Terror Attacks in Bali: JI Not Quite Dead Yet?

By Zachary Abuza

Earlier this week, the former foreign minister of Australia, and current president of the highly respected International Crisis Group, Gareth Evans, gave a speech in Australia in which he stated that Jemaah Islamiyah (JI) had been eliminated and no longer posed a significant threat.

He is eating humble pie this morning.

While JI has not claimed responsibility for the attacks, they are the primary suspects. They are the only organization with the capability and will to conduct such attacks. The targeting of the western-oriented secotrs of the economy in an attempt to de-stabilize the regime has always been their trademark.

Around 7:30 PM, Saturday, three bombs were simultaneously detonated in the Indonesian tourist island of Bali. A fourth bomb was confirmed defused. Others may have been found and disarmed, others may have failed to go off. Based on scattered initial reports, 25 people are confirmed dead, and an Indonesian police official told a local radio that the figure is over 30; 95 people were wounded according to initial reports. Foreigners, including 2 Americans, 2 Australians, 1 Japanese and a Korean are amongst the casualties. The bombs were detonated in Jimbaran beach area and down town Kuta, two of the most crowded tourist spots, at the busiest time of the day.

The bombs were small, under 5 kilograms. At least one that was defused was a pipe bomb, which is a far cry from the massive truck bombs that had become the JI trademark in their last three attacks (Bali in October 2002, the JW Marriott in Jakarta in August 2003, and the Australian Embassy in September). Yet simultaneous bombings � are clearly an AQ/JI hallmark and demonstrate significant logistical capability. The smaller bombs are easier to assemble and move around the country.

Why Bali again? In October 2002, days before the first attack on the resort island, Osama Bin Laden issued a statement in which he warned that "we will target the nodes of your economy." That was the line and most attacks outside or Iraq since then have followed suit. By targeting Bali they
first are striking the economy, and hence the stability of the apostate regime. The other leg of the Indonesian economy - natural resource exploitation may be beyond their means. Second, targeting Bali drives out westerners, whom they believe are a corrupting force on society. In their eyes, Islam can never triumph the west as long as it is infected with impurities.

JI has limited capabilities: While on the run, they are only able to plan and procure enough materials for one major attack a year. The governments have made progress against JI in the past four years. It is a more diffuse organization that has relied/recruited from other Islamist organizations. There is less clear command and control. I have been making the case that JI is in rebuilding mode, after 4 years of concerted counter-terrorist operations. To that end, it has put more emphasis on spiritual purification and fomenting sectarian conflict. JI has a very long-term agenda. Their own documents speak of a 30 year struggle. As the Prophet Mohammad himself had to retreat and regroup, they have the theological cover they need. JI will remain a potent threat to the region for some time to come.

Today's Bombings in Indonesia: The Return of Jemaah Islamiyah? (Photos)

By Andrew Cochran

The perpetrators of today's terrorist bombings in Bali haven't been publicly identified as of this post, but the bombing took place at Kuta, the site of the October 2002 bomb attacks carried out by the al Qaeda-linked terror group Jemaah Islamiyah. Those blasts killed 202 people. From the AP story on the new bombings: "Since the 2002 Bali blasts, Jemaah Islamiyah has been tied to at least two other bombings in Indonesia, both in the capital, Jakarta. Those blasts, one at the J.W. Marriott hotel in 2003 and the other outside the Australian Embassy in 2004, killed at least 23. Western and Indonesian intelligence agency have consistently warned the group was plotting more attacks." Abu Bakar Bashir, JI's alleged spiritual leader, or "emir", was sentenced in March to 30 months in prison for his involvement in the October 2002 Bali bombings, but he was cleared of more serious terrorism charges. The chief Indonesian security minister warned this week that JI continues to possess dangerous bomb-making talent. And a senior Filippino security official is quoted today as saying that al Qaeda-linked Abu Sayyaf and JI are jointly planning to carry out attacks in that country before the Islamic holy month of Ramadan.

ZACHARY ABUZA is one of the world's leading experts on JI, has written extensively about JI, and warned that though weakened, JI remains a potent force. Zachary wrote critically acclaimed studies in 2003 and in 2004 (both Acrobat files) on JI and terrorism in Southeast Asia which are linked in the Counterterrorism Library. Zachary's statement for our September 8 panel, "Four Years Later: Are We Safer?" said the following about JI: "Training, conducted by JI members in MILF camps (including two of JI�s top bomb-makers, Dulmatin and Umar Patek), have substantially improved the lethality and sophistication of their bombs...The MILF continue to give JI members sanctuary, which has allowed them to regroup and train a new generation of members." (Emphasis mine.)

On March 29, Zachary posted the following here about JI:

"Although Jemaah Islamiyah (JI) has been the most active and lethal of Al Qaeda's regional affiliates, perpetrating three major terrorist attacks in Indonesia since 2002: Bali (October 2002), the JW Marriott in Jakarta (August 2003) and the Australian Embassy (September 2004), JI is a weakened organization. JI has been significantly degraded in terms of its capability and manpower since October 2001. There have been more than 300 arrests, including most of its senior leaders and founding members. JI's leadership structure, its shura and regional (mantiqi) structure no longer seem to be in place. What is left is a looser organization, autonomous cells, with little if any centralized command and control. There is considerable bomb-making expertise and a cadre of Afghan trained leaders still at large. JI has not thrown in the towel, and the path to its regrouping and expansion lies less in bombing western targets and more through provoking sectarian conflict. This is what JI and its leaders were consumed with in 1998-2000." (Emphasis mine.)

Look for Zachary's comments about the new bombings on this site and in the media.